Teams that can help us get a higher draft pick

[TouchdownPackers]

People love to think losing out will guarantee we get a higher draft pick when that is simply not true. We can lose out, only to see other teams with worse records do the same. If you want a higher draft pick, you need to root for some teams with worse records than the Packers.

Obviously it does not help to root for teams that mathematically cannot win more games than the Packers. They are the Clowns (twice), Giants, Colts, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Bears. (Cleveland got the fifth pick from Houston in the Deshaun Watson trade.) If we lose Sunday - and I will be shocked if we don't - other teams can help us by winning out regardless of what happens in Detroit. I never want the Packers to lose for any reason, but realistically don't see us winning out.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

So here they are, based exclusively on each team's win/loss record because SOS changes every week.

Raiders (6-8) at Eagles, at Chargers
Cardinals (6-8) Giants, at Seahawks
Dolphins (6-8) at Chiefs, Bills
Redskins (6-8) Broncos, at Giants
Chargers (7-7) at Jets, Raiders

 

[Half Empty]

I pretty sure the original point was that, if the Pack wins out, they certainly won't get a better choice, but if they lose out, they will certainly/probably/possibly (your choice) move up.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

I pretty sure the original point was that, if the Pack wins out, they certainly won't get a better choice, but if they lose out, they will certainly/probably/possibly (your choice) move up.

I don't see us getting a worse choice by winning out.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

In the second post, I was just stating the realiy that we probably will not win out., but there is no guarantee we lose out.

 

[Half Empty]

I don't see us getting a worse choice by winning out.

Don't understand. Stop me when I'm wrong...

We can't possible get a better choice by winning out.
If, per your position, we also don't get a worse choice, then we're going to pick right where we stand.
If we finish at 9-7, you're telling me that the none of the currently 8-6 teams (Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs, Seahawks, Titans) will lose their last two games, finish behind us, and therefore move ahead in the draft order (or, go 1-1 and who-knows-what as far as ties go)? There's also the currently 7-7 Chargers and 9-5 Falcons involved, but my mind already hurts too much.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

OK so what about the 6-8 taems? If we lose one game and 6-8 teams with harder schedules win out, guess hwo moves up.

Raiders (.485)
Cardinals (.505)
Dolphins (.546)
Redskins (.571)

We would pick before the Dolphins and Redskins if these numbers hold.

 

[Half Empty]

OK so what about the 6-8 taems? If we lose one game and 6-8 teams with harder schedules win out, guess hwo moves up.

Raiders (.485)
Cardinals (.505)
Dolphins (.546)
Redskins (.571)

We would pick before the Dolphins and Redskins if these numbers hold.

Wait, wait. Your position before was

I don't see us getting a worse choice by winning out.

You didn't say anything about the Pack going 1-1. That's a whole different discussion. Heck, somebody could tie, too. Let's stick to the Pack winning out scenario, as you originally posted.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

In the winning out scenario, we are talking about the Chargers. This is where it gets tricky: they have a weaker SOS. So we need to root for the Chargers in Week 16 . .. then the Jets in Week 17. That is because we need the Chargers to have a higher SOS - the average win/loss percentage of all 16 opponents - and one more win by the Jets would increase that number for the Chargers. Of course, if the Jets beat the Chargers, this may not matter.

In Week 16, we want to root for the Raiders for the same reason. Whatever will increse the SOS for the Chargers, let's hope for it.

Don't forget about the Lions. If they lose Sunday, our SOS goes down. This is important because the Vikings already have double digit wins.

 

[adambr2]

People love to think losing out will guarantee we get a higher draft pick when that is simply not true. We can lose out, only to see other teams with worse records do the same. If you want a higher draft pick, you need to root for some teams with worse records than the Packers.

Obviously it does not help to root for teams that mathematically cannot win more games than the Packers. They are the Clowns (twice), Giants, Colts, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Bears. (Cleveland got the fifth pick from Houston in the Deshaun Watson trade.) If we lose Sunday - and I will be shocked if we don't - other teams can help us by winning out regardless of what happens in Detroit. I never want the Packers to lose for any reason, but realistically don't see us winning out.

No one thinks that we automatically move up by losing out. Everyone understands the process of worse record teams receiving higher draft picks. If we finish 7-9 we obviously will end up picking higher than if we finish 9-7. This is simple enough. You were adamant about your point here previously too in another thread and I really don't know why...

 

[TouchdownPackers]

No one thinks that we automatically move up by losing out. Everyone understands the process of worse record teams receiving higher draft picks. If we finish 7-9 we obviously will end up picking higher than if we finish 9-7. This is simple enough. You were adamant about your point here previously too in another thread and I really don't know why...

I am a Packers fan. I don't know why people say they want the Packers to win, but at the same time would not mind seeing Green Bay lose. Do people want ties?

 

[sschind]

I am a Packers fan. I don't know why people say they want the Packers to win, but at the same time would not mind seeing Green Bay lose. Do people want ties?

They want the team to win but a loss at this point would not really upset them because the chances of getting a higher pick move up with a loss.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

They want the team to win but a loss at this point would not really upset them because the chances of getting a higher pick move up with a loss.

That thinking is heavily flawed. There is absolutely no benefit to wanting a higher pick as long as there are early round busts and late round gems in the draft. The "pick of the litter" theory is a myth that has been debunked annually.

 

[OldSchool101]

I can see the Redskins and Chargers going either .500 or above. I doubt the Pack wins more than 1 more game so we should be picking in the teens draft wise.
I doubt several draft spots makes a lick of difference I’d rather see Hundley beat a playoff caliber team from our division

 

[LambeauLombardi]

I am a Packers fan. I don't know why people say they want the Packers to win, but at the same time would not mind seeing Green Bay lose. Do people want ties?

A tie? Anything to hurt Minnesota's chances. As for the Detroit game I don't really care. F*** the Vikings.

 

[LambeauLombardi]

Lol at the thought of Oakland winning in Phily and San Diego. Derek Carr is Christian Ponder like in cold weather.

Still a chance the other teams can pass us.

 

[Jerellh528]

What draft choice are we currently?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't see us getting a worse choice by winning out.

The Packers could easily end up picking as late as 20th by winning out as that spot is currently held by the 8-6 Lions which have an easy strength of schedule as the Packers.

That thinking is heavily flawed. There is absolutely no benefit to wanting a higher pick as long as there are early round busts and late round gems in the draft. The "pick of the litter" theory is a myth that has been debunked annually.

It's true there aren't any guarantees of drafting an impact player by selecting earlier but the chances definitely improve.

What draft choice are we currently?

The Packers would currently draft 16th.

 

[sschind]

That thinking is heavily flawed. There is absolutely no benefit to wanting a higher pick as long as there are early round busts and late round gems in the draft. The "pick of the litter" theory is a myth that has been debunked annually.

For the most part I agree with you. I'm not sure I would say its a myth that has been debunked but you are right. When you look at individual players there will always be the early round busts and late round gems as you say but in general, the higher you pick the better your chances are at getting the better player. It may be easier to see it if instead of looking at it as getting the "better" player you look at it from the standpoint of getting your choice of players. Since no one really knows how any college player is going to perform in the NFL your chances of getting one who does well increases with the more players you have to choose from.

Obviously, with the draft order determined by the previous years finish, everyone would rather have the #32 pick than the #1. But if you take the previous years finish out if the equation everyone would want the #1 pick. Why, because you get to take any player you want. Of course you still have to choose the right one.

One thing we always see when it comes to draft analysis is "we could have taken this player instead of that one" Usually "this" player is having a much better career than "that" one. What you rarely see is this sort of draft evaluation. In 2012 the Packers had the #28 pick and we chose Nick Perry. Now he has had an OK career thus far but lets look at who we could have had if we had lost a few more game and moved up 10 spots in the draft. Now we are sitting at #18 and we could have taken Melvin Ingram. I'm not sure but I don't think there is anyone who would not trade Nick Perry for Melvin Ingram at this point. But, care to take a guess at who else we MAY have picked at #18? The guy who was taken at #19 by the Chicago Bears. Shea McClellin. Yeah, the guy who, before Anthony Barr, may have been the most hated opposing player in the league. In case you don't know he is the guy who put the hit on Aaron Rodgers and broke his collarbone in 2013 and for the most part that is all he will be remembered for.

So yeah, moving up in the draft may increase your odds of getting a better player but if you don't choose the right guy your odds of getting one of those other guys goes up as well. That is why I would simply prefer the wins this year and let next years draft chips fall where they may.

 

[sschind]

The Packers could easily end up picking as late as 20th by winning out as that spot is currently held by the 8-6 Lions which have an easy strength of schedule as the Packers.



It's true there aren't any guarantees of drafting an impact player by selecting earlier but the chances definitely improve.



The Packers would currently draft 16th.

If we win out any idea what is the highest we could pick at 9-7 This is what I want.

What I said only you said it much more succinctly.

 

[OldSchool101]

If we win out any idea what is the highest we could pick at 9-7 This is what I want.

What I said only you said it much more succinctly.

If I recall there are currently 6 teams that are 8-6 currently. It would be an anomaly but we could be bumped to 22nd. (not sure how the tie breakers a Chargers record tie breaker at 9-7 would pan out?)

 

[TouchdownPackers]

If I recall there are currently 6 teams that are 8-6 currently. It would be an anomaly but we could be bumped to 22nd. (not sure how the tie breakers a Chargers record tie breaker at 9-7 would pan out?)

It is impossible to drop to #22 unless you want to talk about trades with playoff teams. Getting ahead of the Chargers also would require a trade no matter what they do.

The current 8-6 teams (excluding the Ravens, who are playing now):

Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans
Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Seattle Seahawks

So there will be six 8-6 teams after the Colts/Ravens game ends. Remember the Chiefs will get in the playoffs somehow, most likely by winning the division.