Projecting the Offense

[SudsMcBucky]

I'm thinking the GB FO strategy was when drafting, they knew they had holes to fill all the time early in the draft, particularly on D and assume their thought was that ARod had a chance be able to continue to make the passing game go regardless who was at WR. So, they focused on fixing other holes on the team.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm thinking the GB FO strategy was when drafting, they knew they had holes to fill all the time early in the draft, particularly on D and assume their thought was that ARod had a chance be able to continue to make the passing game go regardless who was at WR. So, they focused on fixing other holes on the team.

Yes.

I’d be willing to wager that the Packers are at or very near the bottom of NFL teams in total capital spent at the position. If we added TE? It would just double down on thin.
I remember a couple seasons ago scanning the Patriots Drafts, because someone has mentioned they did the same thing. But upon looking at the full spectrum, they had multiple Day1 picked WR’s added through FA. It’s a different approach, but they still heavily stocked Brady.

Green Bay can’t really say that. In Rodgers tenure he’s had very few resources thrown his direction as far as Receiver-TE.

The point I think I’m trying to make? is that Aaron Rodgers (and good coaching) have taken one of the (if not the) worst level of resources and molded them into top 10 units on a regular basis. I don’t have time to do further research, but I’d wager regularly bottom 10 types resources turning top 10 type results. It’s really a testament to him. It’s my opinion those conditions made him stronger as a QB. It’s also why I’m not jumping off a bridge, this 2022 is just his usual stroll in the park for Aaron

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm thinking the GB FO strategy was when drafting, they knew they had holes to fill all the time early in the draft, particularly on D and assume their thought was that ARod had a chance be able to continue to make the passing game go regardless who was at WR. So, they focused on fixing other holes on the team.

There's truth to that. When they picked at #22, all the first round WRs were gone. To his credit, Gluten doesn't usually reach. I say "usually" because giving up two second round picks to grab Watson seemed like a stretch. But this year, he had to take a WR pretty high. Now we'll see if Watson was worthy of the pick. FWIW, I liked his picks.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Good stuff, That is an excellent observation I commend you for that nice. Players are added and deleted throughout the season and it could happen tomorrow. So we’d better tread lightly when making some assumption that our Roster is “fixed”. That was 1 of the points I made that you conveniently sidestep in the overall conversation.

There's no way to evaluate a position group based on moves possibly being made in the future. Therefore I can only take a look at the current depth chart to give it a guess.

In addition in comparing 2015vs2022, I was going to offer also that while Cobb is definitely “older Cobb” he’s definitely not any less “proven” today. You make him sound like he’s inexperienced. I don’t agreee with that.

Cobb was coming off a season in which he had 91 catches for 1,287 yards and 12 TDs in 2015. Please don't act as if he was still a player being able to put up similar numbers at this point in his career.

Lazard unproven? I “mostly” disagree with that label. It’s not like he’s a Rookie. Allen 100% has Aaron Rodgers confidence and #12 has said as much. Yes, I could argue that he’s not proven as a WR1, but using “unproven” is leaning towards discounting his current value.

Once again, Lazard has never caught more than 40 passes in a season or put up more than 513 receiving yards. There's no way of knowing if he can actually develop into a legit #1 receiver.

Sammy is definitely NOT “unproven”. Not sure where you got that from? I’ve got a guy that’s a KC diehard and sits 25 feet away from me. To be fair, I simply asked him yes or no question. Is Sammy Watkins “unproven”? He says NO

You just don't get it, I'm not talking about experience here but the impact guys like Watkins and Cobb have had recently. Watkins hasn't produced solid numbers since his second year in the league back in 2015.

I also 100% disagree that you think2015
Rookie Montgomery
Rookie Miracle Janis
2nd year Stud Abbredaris

Are in any general or practical format “proven” players at that juncture. The grouping below would overwhelmingly best that former group imo.

Rookie Christian Watson
Rookie Romeo Doubs
4th year player Juan Winfree

Montgomery, Abbrederis and Janis were the #4 to #6 wide receiver on the depth chart back in 2015 being targeted only a combined total of 47 times all season long.

The Packers had a solid trio of Cobb, Jones and Adams as their top three receivers though.

This season they might need Watson, Doubs and/or Winfree to make a much bigger impact though as there are question marks at the top of the depth chart as well.

For our group of WR compared to 2015? we can argue injury prone, emerging, declining or developing, but not “unproven”. I just hope you don’t still feel like I am ignoring your 2015 argument. I thought about making this post longer but I didn’t want to get Banned!

My point is and has always been that the receiving corps was more talented in 2015 than it is entering this season. Yet Rodgers struggled with that group. Therefore I'm advocating to be a bit more cautious about expecting him to make it work with this year's group solely based on him being an elite quarterback.

I think the WR group and the rest of the team will do well enough to compete for a SB, the same as when Adams was here. Are their chances better or worse? I don't really care. The D is better, the running game is solid, they have arguably the best QB in the league. I see no reason to be pessimistic.

I believe the Packers will be a legit Super Bowl contender as well. Their chances would be significantly improved with a better receiving corps though.

However, these experts in the media that rank the Packers Receiving group at or near Dead last? Really? Doesn’t the QB and HC and OL/TE (blocking) and RB threat have something to say about that? It’s like we’re in a WR funnel

Let make ask you a question. Do you honestly feel confident about the offensive line and tight end group to pick up the slack for the receiving corps if Bakhtiari, Jenkins and Tonyan don't play?

Yeah I see no reason to be pessimistic about the passing game. Two of the guys, Lazard and Watkins, are very motivated to do well and have shown they can play in the NFL. The rookies are motivated because they want to stand out, early, and set themselves up for better things.

I fully expect opposing defenses to be motivated as well.

 

[Sanguine camper]

The question about the WR group is how can they beat the opponents best corners? Lazard is unproven as a #1. He's a good #3 but now he will be covered by elite cb's. I doubt an unfa like Lazard will match up well. Same can be be said for whoever plays #2. Can any of the TE's get open without Tonyan? Throw in a patchwork o line with your OT's of Josh and a rookie and it isn't unreasonable to expect Rodgers to get hurt and miss much of the season. Unless the injury situation improves quickly, the offense is a mess. The running game will be more important but needs a capable o line.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Just saw this and thought it would be of interest since there are so many questions about the oline and receiver; just listened to some analysis that shows that terrible receivers can also lead to poor pass protection since QBs have to hold the ball longer while waiting for guys to get open (it's what happened to New England's oline the last year Brady was there and he had nobody to throw to).

Football Outsiders notes that Rodgers' MVP season last year was driven by INSANE performance from a clean pocket but that he was the second worst QB in the league in completion percent and yards per attempt when under pressure (behind Zach Wilson and Tyler Huntley, respectively). So, if the Packers can't get their oline sh*t together and find some decent receivers, Rodgers might just be awful. I don't think that will be the case but it's a real possibiilty.

Link to Football Outsiders article: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/qbs-and-pressure-why-jimmy-garoppolo-limbo

 

[OldSchool101]

Just saw this and thought it would be of interest since there are so many questions about the oline and receiver; just listened to some analysis that shows that terrible receivers can also lead to poor pass protection since QBs have to hold the ball longer while waiting for guys to get open (it's what happened to New England's oline the last year Brady was there and he had nobody to throw to).

Football Outsiders notes that Rodgers' MVP season last year was driven by INSANE performance from a clean pocket but that he was the second worst QB in the league in completion percent and yards per attempt when under pressure (behind Zach Wilson and Tyler Huntley, respectively). So, if the Packers can't get their oline sh*t together and find some decent receivers, Rodgers might just be awful. I don't think that will be the case but it's a real possibiilty.

Link to Football Outsiders article: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/qbs-and-pressure-why-jimmy-garoppolo-limbo

OL is a huge piece of the ultimate success a QB has. Let’s start there and there are countless examples of this each season.

That said. What comforts me is that The Packers played 1/2 season WITHOUT Bakhtiari AND Jenkins and performed admirably. That was with many in-season adjustments.

We currently have 8 players from over 3 years of drafts (not including Elgton/Bak) competing for 2-3 spots (OT, OG, OG) We have an entire offseason program to manipulate and massage the best 3 options. At least 2 of those players have already started large sections of previous seasons. As a contingency, We can easily sign a veteran FA at any time we feel necessary as we did in the past. Although I think that’s bordering on redundant.

If Bak is able to play again he’s basically a bonus at this point. We really can function without him and we already have. He had zero meaningful production in 2021. However his return would benefit us tremendously. His presence alone changes us from serviceable.. to leaning stout

I haven’t even considered the possibility of a Jenkins return mid season. Elgton is at Bakhtiari type level, in addition, he’s an instant starter and upgrade at any position.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

ESPN ranked all 32 offensive lines entering this season with the Packers ending up at #2.

That is dependent on Bakhtiari and Jenkins being able to play though.

Ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines: Projecting pass and run blocking for every team in 2022

We used our pass and run block win rate model to predict how all 32 offensive lines will perform in 2022. Which Super Bowl contenders have the top units?

www.espn.com

 

[OldSchool101]

ESPN ranked all 32 offensive lines entering this season with the Packers ending up at #2.

That is dependent on Bakhtiari and Jenkins being able to play though.

Ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines: Projecting pass and run blocking for every team in 2022

We used our pass and run block win rate model to predict how all 32 offensive lines will perform in 2022. Which Super Bowl contenders have the top units?

www.espn.com

I couldn’t find anyway to access the full article without accepting a subscription offer through ESPN. Even going to the ESPN app directly and searching the article didn’t work without a subscription.

I did find another article that has no commitment that’s similar, but with the Packers at #5

2022 NFL offensive line rankings: Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers among Tier 1 teams | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

The Philadelphia Eagles lead the way in PFF's offensive line unit rankings and tiers ahead of the 2022 NFL season.

www.pff.com

 

[Heyjoe4]

ESPN ranked all 32 offensive lines entering this season with the Packers ending up at #2.

That is dependent on Bakhtiari and Jenkins being able to play though.

Ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines: Projecting pass and run blocking for every team in 2022

We used our pass and run block win rate model to predict how all 32 offensive lines will perform in 2022. Which Super Bowl contenders have the top units?

www.espn.com

Those are two big IFs, especially Bakhtiari. I expect Jenkins will return. I don't know about Bakh. Gotta wait and see with everyone else. Thanks for the article.

 

[OldSchool101]

I noticed Las Vegas OL projected in that bottom dwelling area. That’s not good news for the Carr-Adams connection unless they can offset with the quick passing game.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I couldn’t find anyway to access the full article without accepting a subscription offer through ESPN. Even going to the ESPN app directly and searching the article didn’t work without a subscription.

I did find another article that has no commitment that’s similar, but with the Packers at #5

2022 NFL offensive line rankings: Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers among Tier 1 teams | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

The Philadelphia Eagles lead the way in PFF's offensive line unit rankings and tiers ahead of the 2022 NFL season.

www.pff.com

That's interesting. I don't have an ESPN subscription either but was able to read the entire article

 

[Raleigh NC Packers Fan]

I think that the offense can put up similar numbers in terms of total yards as recent years and also be able to move the ball well, going on long sustained drives, controlling T.O.P. and the clock, especially if they commit to the running game more and get the running backs and tight ends involved more in the passing game.

However, I think the big concern with the offense this upcoming season is going to be 3rd and long situations, the red zone, and making big, explosive plays that gain a lot of yards. I do think that there is a good chance we can be ok in these areas if Doubs and Watson are NFL ready and have good rookie seasons, and I think the both of them will be great receivers at some point regardless, but we don't know how good they will be this year.

I also think we need Doubs and Watson to reach their potential this year if we want the offense to be effective against elite defenses in the playoffs.

The offense could start the season slow due to Bahk and Jenkins being out.

I am not as down on our WR's as some, but I do wish we had either signed one of Jones or OBJ or traded for a WR/pass catching TE.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think that the offense can put up similar numbers in terms of total yards as recent years and also be able to move the ball well, going on long sustained drives, controlling T.O.P. and the clock, especially if they commit to the running game more and get the running backs and tight ends involved more in the passing game.

However, I think the big concern with the offense this upcoming season is going to be 3rd and long situations, the red zone, and making big, explosive plays that gain a lot of yards. I do think that there is a good chance we can be ok in these areas if Doubs and Watson are NFL ready and have good rookie seasons, and I think the both of them will be great receivers at some point regardless, but we don't know how good they will be this year.

I also think we need Doubs and Watson to reach their potential this year if we want the offense to be effective against elite defenses in the playoffs.

The offense could start the season slow due to Bahk and Jenkins being out.

I am not as down on our WR's as some, but I do wish we had either signed one of Jones or OBJ or traded for a WR/pass catching TE.

That's a very good summary. They should be fine moving the ball between the 20s and controlling TOP. They might struggle in the red zone, and that will depend at least in part on the O line and getting Bakh and Jenkins going again. With Jenkins hopefully it's a matter of when he gets back. With Bakh, it's if he can return to football at all. Anyway, I think the WR group will be fine for what the Packers need to win games, given the strength of the running game and the D.

I also expect the TEs to play in-line more until the O line is at full strength. Going into the season, the TE group doesn't pose much of a passing threat anyway, unfortunately. It is possible DeGuarra is on the rise, but like Bakh, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[OldSchool101]

That's a very good summary. They should be fine moving the ball between the 20s and controlling TOP. They might struggle in the red zone, and that will depend at least in part on the O line and getting Bakh and Jenkins going again. With Jenkins hopefully it's a matter of when he gets back. With Bakh, it's if he can return to football at all. Anyway, I think the WR group will be fine for what the Packers need to win games, given the strength of the running game and the D.

I also expect the TEs to play in-line more until the O line is at full strength. Going into the season, the TE group doesn't pose much of a passing threat anyway, unfortunately. It is possible DeGuarra is on the rise, but like Bakh, I'll believe it when I see it.

That was exactly our issue last season. We sacrificed TE receiving production to keep extra blockers to keep Aaron upright. Tonyan (eventually Deguara) would have had many more targets had we not lost Bak and had 2 Rookies starting on the OL.
That’s why the return of Bak
(or Jenkins) is paramount. It sends ripples through the OL and opens the playbook. We have been somewhat handicapped missing 2 All-Pro level Lineman.

 

[Pkrjones]

Why all of the concern over possible red zone problems? AR is one of the most accurate passers in the league. Lazard is 6'-5", Lewis is 6'-6", Watson is 6'-4", Tonyan is 6'-5", & Tyler Davis is 6'-4". All of those guys dwarf CB's, Safeties & LB's on high passes. MLF trots out 2-TE sets with a RB & Lazard & Watson with run/pass option play & IMHO it's unstoppable. C'mon, let's have some faith!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Why all of the concern over possible red zone problems? AR is one of the most accurate passers in the league. Lazard is 6'-5", Lewis is 6'-6", Watson is 6'-4", Tonyan is 6'-5", & Tyler Davis is 6'-4". All of those guys dwarf CB's, Safeties & LB's on high passes. MLF trots out 2-TE sets with a RB & Lazard & Watson with run/pass option play & IMHO it's unstoppable. C'mon, let's have some faith!

Good summary and all good points. And over the last few years, they've been pretty good in the red zone, right? My only concern is keeping Rodgers upright until one of those guys you mention gets open. (Then again, with that height advantage, Rodgers could throw jump balls and the receivers should win.)

Anyway my comment could have been worded better. If the O line can keep Rodgers upright with plenty of time - to your point - that's nearly unstoppable.

 

[Southside]

i noticed Amari Rodgers looks quicker and faster this year. He should get some playing time.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It

i noticed Amari Rodgers looks quicker and faster this year. He should get some playing time.

Sounds like it. It's hard to get good info on players at the point in camp. One guy posted that Winfree is working with the starters. WTF! I mean I hope he's improved that much, it's just hard to believe. In 2020 he was on the PS and last year he barely played. But who knows? Stranger things have happened and sometimes in football it takes two seasons before a guy takes off. Adams is a good example (no talent comparison between Winfree and Adams or any other WR on the roster intended). But Adams really took off in year 3.

The leaders of the WR group will likely be Lazard, Watkins, and Doubs. Watson will have to catch up. Well, as of today. I hope Amari steps it up and owns the slot position.

 

[OldSchool101]

Why all of the concern over possible red zone problems? AR is one of the most accurate passers in the league. Lazard is 6'-5", Lewis is 6'-6", Watson is 6'-4", Tonyan is 6'-5", & Tyler Davis is 6'-4". All of those guys dwarf CB's, Safeties & LB's on high passes. MLF trots out 2-TE sets with a RB & Lazard & Watson with run/pass option play & IMHO it's unstoppable. C'mon, let's have some faith!

Well said. Any One of those guys mentioned could step up inside the 20 yard line.

That said. We do need to get some continuity going at our OL and I suspect a young group like ours could take about 4-6 games to synchronize. That would obviously be hastened by the return of our Star Tackle as a bonus.

Once that OL group gets confidence, we’ll be able to unleash our TE’s more in the passing game. Tonyan spoke to that being his primary reasoning for a slow statistical start last season. He said he was asked to stay inline and block more early in the season, for obvious reasons.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think that the offense can put up similar numbers in terms of total yards as recent years and also be able to move the ball well, going on long sustained drives, controlling T.O.P. and the clock, especially if they commit to the running game more and get the running backs and tight ends involved more in the passing game.

I don't believe the tight ends being more involved in the passing game would result in much improvement.

I am not as down on our WR's as some, but I do wish we had either signed one of Jones or OBJ or traded for a WR/pass catching TE.

With OBJ having had ACL surgery in Februrary he would be of no help until late in the season at the earliest.

And over the last few years, they've been pretty good in the red zone, right?

The Packers ranked only 19th in the league in points per red zone opportunity last season.

One guy posted that Winfree is working with the starters. WTF! I mean I hope he's improved that much, it's just hard to believe. In 2020 he was on the PS and last year he barely played. But who knows?

FWIW Winfree had a fantastic catch of a Rodgers' throw that travelled 60 yards in the air and nearly hit the roof of the Hutson Center during yesterday's practicey

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don't believe the tight ends being more involved in the passing game would result in much improvement.



With OBJ having had ACL surgery in Februrary he would be of no help until late in the season at the earliest.



The Packers ranked only 19th in the league in points per red zone opportunity last season.




FWIW Winfree had a fantastic catch of a Rodgers' throw that travelled 60 yards in the air and nearly hit the roof of the Hutson Center during yesterday's practicey

Thanks for the TC update on Winfree. That's one great play you mention, but apparently there have been others. It would be a pleasant surprise if he's improved that much on a consistent basis.

19th in RZ opportunities last year. Ugh. Not very good.

 

[tynimiller]

Honestly Winfree, Doubs and Toure have all excelled at their chances time and time again...Amari has had very few hiccups as well and everyone keeps raving about how much swfiter he is cut down weight wise.....it makes sense all these guys are HUNGRY knowing the chance they have with no clear #1 receiver...shoot Tonyan even mentioned how hungry he is to get back out there knowing there is a need in the house for receiving yards.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Honestly Winfree, Doubs and Toure have all excelled at their chances time and time again...Amari has had very few hiccups as well and everyone keeps raving about how much swfiter he is cut down weight wise.....it makes sense all these guys are HUNGRY knowing the chance they have with no clear #1 receiver...shoot Tonyan even mentioned how hungry he is to get back out there knowing there is a need in the house for receiving yards.

Interesting point I didn't consider until now. With the alpha dog Adams gone, and long threat MVS gone, The WR room is wide open. And all the names are rookies or former PS guys - Doubs, Winfree, Toure, Rodgers. In the past, with Adams, MVS and Lazard all well ahead of them, they wouldn't have gotten the attention they're getting now in camp. Some will make the most of it. A good thing.

I'm surprised we don't hear Lazard's name more often. I admit I have not been following TC closely. I wonder how he's doing.

 

[tynimiller]

Interesting point I didn't consider until now. With the alpha dog Adams gone, and long threat MVS gone, The WR room is wide open. And all the names are rookies or former PS guys - Doubs, Winfree, Toure, Rodgers. In the past, with Adams, MVS and Lazard all well ahead of them, they wouldn't have gotten the attention they're getting now in camp. Some will make the most of it. A good thing.

I'm surprised we don't hear Lazard's name more often. I admit I have not been following TC closely. I wonder how he's doing.

Lazard is purely doing what he is supposed to do - that isn't going to catch the headlines as much. You never heard much of what Adams did at camp either as it is expected almost...not putting Lazard up there, but Rodgers/MLF/Gute and many others have said Lazard is the guy to take the reigns.