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Projecting Jordan Love in 2024
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 1034851" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>In 2023, Jordan Love played all 17 games and finished:</p><p></p><p>372/579, 64.2% completion, 4159 yards, 7.2 YPA, 32 TD (5.5%), 11 INT (1.9%)</p><p></p><p>However, all Packers fans know that it was really the tale of two halves for him. In the first 9 games, Love was:</p><p></p><p>176/300, 58.7%, 2009 yards, 6.7 YPA, 14 TD (4.7%), 10 INT (3.3%)</p><p></p><p>Over a 17 game sample, this extrapolates to: 333/567, 58.7%, 3799 yards, 6.7 YPA, 27 TD, 19 INT (a passer rating of 81)</p><p></p><p>But if you look at the final 9 games (including the wildcard game because it evens the sample):</p><p></p><p>212/300, 70.7%, 2422 yards, 8.1 YPA, 21 TD (7.0%), 1 INT (0.3%)</p><p></p><p>Over a 17 game sample, this extrapolates to: 401/567, 70.7%, 4593 yards, 8.1 YPA, 40 TD, 2 INT (a passer rating of 117!)</p><p></p><p>So given the sharp difference in performance level over the first half rather than the back half, what would a reasonable projection look like in 2024? Some might say just split the difference-- for example, project a 64.7% completion and a 7.4 YPA because that's the middle point between the two halves. However, I don't think that makes sense. </p><p></p><p>It is most reasonable to project that the Love we saw in games 10-18 is much closer to the player he will be moving forward than the Love we saw in games 1-9. During that early stage of the season, he was figuring out how to be successful and he was finding his way with a young, inexperienced supporting cast. Now he takes all that experience into year 2 as the starter and the supporting cast has grown and is growing with him. It doesn't make sense to expect him to revert back towards that early-season version of himself, especially given that the tape would not indicate in any way that his progress was the result of smoke and mirrors. </p><p></p><p>That said, there are still some aspects of the latter sample that aren't sustainable (e.g. a 0.3% INT rate). So while I think the projection should lean more heavily towards the final 9 games than the first 9 games, I don't think you can just extrapolate them and call it good. So here is what I've come up with for 2024:</p><p></p><p><strong>382/560, 68.2% completion, 4424 yards, 7.9 YPA, 34 TD (6.0%), 8 INT (1.5%)</strong></p><p></p><p>This comes out to a 106 Passer Rating, so it's obviously very optimistic. But I know what I saw last year and it's logical to expect that Love's supporting cast will take a big collective step forward. I tried to be conservative in my projection last season and it was widely panned as too optimistic and it ended up being too pessimistic in the end.<strong> The bottom line for me is this: when I look at Love's age, his progress in 2023, what he put on tape, who his coaches are, and the supporting cast he's working with, I see no reason why he won't end 2024 considered to be one of the truly elite QB's in the NFL. </strong></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 1034851, member: 12283"] In 2023, Jordan Love played all 17 games and finished: 372/579, 64.2% completion, 4159 yards, 7.2 YPA, 32 TD (5.5%), 11 INT (1.9%) However, all Packers fans know that it was really the tale of two halves for him. In the first 9 games, Love was: 176/300, 58.7%, 2009 yards, 6.7 YPA, 14 TD (4.7%), 10 INT (3.3%) Over a 17 game sample, this extrapolates to: 333/567, 58.7%, 3799 yards, 6.7 YPA, 27 TD, 19 INT (a passer rating of 81) But if you look at the final 9 games (including the wildcard game because it evens the sample): 212/300, 70.7%, 2422 yards, 8.1 YPA, 21 TD (7.0%), 1 INT (0.3%) Over a 17 game sample, this extrapolates to: 401/567, 70.7%, 4593 yards, 8.1 YPA, 40 TD, 2 INT (a passer rating of 117!) So given the sharp difference in performance level over the first half rather than the back half, what would a reasonable projection look like in 2024? Some might say just split the difference-- for example, project a 64.7% completion and a 7.4 YPA because that's the middle point between the two halves. However, I don't think that makes sense. It is most reasonable to project that the Love we saw in games 10-18 is much closer to the player he will be moving forward than the Love we saw in games 1-9. During that early stage of the season, he was figuring out how to be successful and he was finding his way with a young, inexperienced supporting cast. Now he takes all that experience into year 2 as the starter and the supporting cast has grown and is growing with him. It doesn't make sense to expect him to revert back towards that early-season version of himself, especially given that the tape would not indicate in any way that his progress was the result of smoke and mirrors. That said, there are still some aspects of the latter sample that aren't sustainable (e.g. a 0.3% INT rate). So while I think the projection should lean more heavily towards the final 9 games than the first 9 games, I don't think you can just extrapolate them and call it good. So here is what I've come up with for 2024: [B]382/560, 68.2% completion, 4424 yards, 7.9 YPA, 34 TD (6.0%), 8 INT (1.5%)[/B] This comes out to a 106 Passer Rating, so it's obviously very optimistic. But I know what I saw last year and it's logical to expect that Love's supporting cast will take a big collective step forward. I tried to be conservative in my projection last season and it was widely panned as too optimistic and it ended up being too pessimistic in the end.[B] The bottom line for me is this: when I look at Love's age, his progress in 2023, what he put on tape, who his coaches are, and the supporting cast he's working with, I see no reason why he won't end 2024 considered to be one of the truly elite QB's in the NFL. [/B] [/QUOTE]
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