Projecting 2015 season

[HardRightEdge]

No, their total of 125 targets includes passes by Flynn as well.

This is funny...I've been using ESPNs data, which says 126 targets. Perhaps there were one or two thrown into the ether or into a crowd, with different interpretations of who was the intended receiver.

 

[HardRightEdge]

In that case Cobb would have had 106 catches for 1,502 yards with 14 TDs. Great numbers but aside of the touchdowns still behind Antonio Brown.

But still on many fewer targets! The point being, if Cobb's gross numbers moved him toward the very top of the league on a 15 - 18% team passing frequency adjustment, perhaps then the outrageously good productivity per target numbers might have gotten some notice.

If you break down the numbers on a per target basis, with Antonio Brown's stunning 44% more targets than Cobb, his numbers are equivalent to Randall Cobb + a lousy tight end. The spread between the two players on a per target basis is so wide as to not justify rating Brown as the better 2014 wide receiver given that Cobb had a significant number of targets (126, 25th. in the league) as opposed to a bit player like a Beasley.

I'll leave this topic for awhile with a couple of last observations on why my contention that Cobb was the "NFL most valuable 2014 receiver" defies most folks' eye test, if not their statistical tests, Packer fans included.

1. I noted above that Cobb made a first down on 56.3% percent of his targets, #1 among the top 13 yards-per-game leaders. What I did not note is that his percent was considerably higher than the league #2. Also, I did not note that Cobb made a first down on 78.0% of his catches. That's crazy good; the gap over #2 gets wider.

2. Despite those crazy good possession receiver metrics he still averaged 14.1 yds. per catch.

3. I already noted that he led those top 13 yards-per-game receivers in yards after catch per target. I did not previously mention that his 556 gross YAC was 4th. among all receivers or that 43% of his yards were after the catch. The only top receiver with a higher YAC % of total yards was Golden Tate (another underrated receiver).

What I draw from this is that certain receivers get extra credit from the highlight reels which tend toward the circus catches and blowing by a corner for a long ball.

Cobb catches a lot of balls in short range and runs for the first down or gets open in the intermediate range for first downs and adds yards after the catch, adding a fair number of TDs in the process. Less glamorous than the highlight reel exploits, but no less valuable. Yards, first downs and TDs have the same value regardless of how their achieved.

And again, he blew everybody away on a per target basis last season.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Cobb is one of the best WRs in the NFL but I have a hard time saying he is the best. There's a lot of QB performance in WR performance and Cobb plays with the best QB in the NFL. I'm not saying that he's better than Cobb but Odell Beckam played with a much worse QB and averaged 2.74 yards per passing route (a better factor than yards per target) while Cobb averaged 2.24 yards per route. Speaking of that, AJ Green lead the NFL with 2.96 yards per route and he had Andy Dalton at QB! Odell was fourth in the NFL with a 2.15% drop rate while Cobb was 29th at 8.08% (courtesy of PFF).

Cobb had the highest QB rating when targeted at 134.3 but it's not like Beckham was far behind at 127.6 and I would guess that Eli Manning had a greater increase in passer rating when targeting Beckham than Rodgers did when targeting Cobb. And shouldn't that really be the metric when looking at passer rating, how much the QB improved when targeting that receiver? Rodgers had a QB rating of 99.04 so his improvement when throwing to Cobb was 35.26 while Manning, QB rating of 89.67, saw an improvement of 37.93. So both are about equivalent according to that measure.

Finally, I still believe that Calvin Johnson could put up some ridiculous numbers if he played with Aaron Rodgers...for that matter so could Beckham.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I noted above that Cobb made a first down on 56.3% percent of his targets, #1 among the top 13 yards-per-game leaders. What I did not note is that his percent was considerably higher than the league #2. Also, I did not note that Cobb made a first down on 78.0% of his catches. That's crazy good; the gap over #2 gets wider.

Calvin Johnson had a higher first down percentage per reception (83.1%) than Cobb last season.

already noted that he led those top 13 yards-per-game receivers in yards after catch per target. I did not previously mention that his 556 gross YAC was 4th. among all receivers or that 43% of his yards were after the catch. The only top receiver with a higher YAC % of total yards was Golden Tate (another underrated receiver).

There are several other receivers that have a higher YAC % than Cobb with Jarvis Landry (58.4%) leading the way.

Cobb catches a lot of balls in short range and runs for the first down or gets open in the intermediate range for first downs and adds yards after the catch, adding a fair number of TDs in the process. Less glamorous than the highlight reel exploits, but no less valuable. Yards, first downs and TDs have the same value regardless of how their achieved.

And again, he blew everybody away on a per target basis last season.

Don't get me wrong, I love Randall Cobb and I'm glad the Packers re-signed him. I just don't consider him the best receiver in the NFL.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Cobb had the highest QB rating when targeted at 134.3 but it's not like Beckham was far behind at 127.6 and I would guess that Eli Manning had a greater increase in passer rating when targeting Beckham than Rodgers did when targeting Cobb. And shouldn't that really be the metric when looking at passer rating, how much the QB improved when targeting that receiver? Rodgers had a QB rating of 99.04 so his improvement when throwing to Cobb was 35.26 while Manning, QB rating of 89.67, saw an improvement of 37.93. So both are about equivalent according to that measure.

Rodgers had a QB rating of 112.2 last season so his rating improved by 22.1 when throwing to Cobb. Eli Manning (92.1) improved by 35.5 points targeting Beckham.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Calvin Johnson had a higher first down percentage per reception (83.1%) than Cobb last season.

You're right. I missed than one, probably because Johnson only caught 55% of the balls thrown to him. When you run a high percentage of deep routes, a relatively low completion rate and high first down rate per catch is expected.

There are several other receivers that have a higher YAC % than Cobb with Jarvis Landry (58.4%) leading the way.

I don't doubt that. I was looking at the top 13 receivers in yards-per-game. The point was to compare Cobb to the guys above him on that list who are generally regarded as the best in the game last season. Landry was 59th. in the league in yards per game. I'm sure there others, particularly those who run a lot of screens or catch out of the backfield with regularity. As you know, there are RBs with more YAC than actual yards because they're catching a lot of balls behind the line; I'm sure there are a few WRs getting thrown a relatively high percentage of those kinds of balls as well.

I don't think Cobb needs to be #1 in every category to make my case. The fact he is rated so high in so many categories on a per target or per catch basis makes for a strong argument.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Rodgers had a QB rating of 112.2 last season so his rating improved by 22.1 when throwing to Cobb. Eli Manning (92.1) improved by 35.5 points targeting Beckham.

Cobb and Beckham are an interesting comparison. Beckham had a scant 4 additional targets while their catches and TDs are identical. Their average yards per catch is nearly identical...Cobb at 14.1 and Beckham at 14.3. It's not surprising their thrown-to passer ratings would be close, with only INTs not accounted for in these numbers.

Many have cited Beckham having played only 12 games and make the argument he should be regarded at the top of the list for 2014 given he led the league in yards per game played, and his other numbers would go up significantly if projected to 16 games. It does not hurt that the one-handed circus catch, replayed over and over, gets the imagination working overtime.

Lets look at some numbers not included in the passer rating.

As previously noted, Cobb's first downs per target and catch were 56.3% and 78.0%, respectively. Beckham's were 43.2% and 63.3%. That's a meaningful difference.

While Beckham is generally viewed as a perimeter deep threat with Cobb the more humble slot possession type, Cobb had 24 catches of +20 yds., whereas Beckham had only 16 on the same number of catches, with Beckham having 4 additional targets which bears repetition.

Cobb had meaningfully more YAC. But you can't like YAC just for YAC's sake. What is it buying you? I'm saying that with Cobb it is buying more first downs and more long gains.

To the point of Beckham's QB rating spread over his QB's rating being larger than Cobb's, it's probably worth pointing out that the Packers have Nelson and the Giants had Rueben Randall. In other words, one would expect the spread to be larger by virtue of the quality spread between the player in question and his compatriots.

So, what if Beckham had played those other 4 games? To start, it's a conjecture; who knows what that might have yielded. Playing an NFL length season instead of college length season might have had an affect. It's purely guess work. Then there's the counter conjecture...what if instead of throwing the ball 536 times as the Packers did in 2014, they threw the ball 655 times as the Lions have averaged over the last 5 years?

Under that scenario, I would expect Cobb's ridiculous per target numbers to go down (as would Nelson's) given that quantity would likely compromise quality. INTs would go up, one would think, compromising receiver passer rating. But the gross numbers would inflate and the inclination among many would be to rate Cobb (and Nelson) higher than they are even if they are not better players in the bargain.

And that is supposed to make sense.

Cobb's insane production on a per target basis, while also having enough targets to make it meaningful, with impressive gross numbers across the board all on their own, makes for a strong argument for Cobb as the most valuable 2014 receiver.

I submit the problem is that he does not look the part, and he does not make the highlight reels with the occasional one-handed circus catch like Beckham. And slot receivers can't possibly be that good, even if this one happens to be, at least in 2014.

 

[Jdeed]

Eli vs Aaron.....which WR's are gonna get better thrown balls?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't doubt that. I was looking at the top 13 receivers in yards-per-game. The point was to compare Cobb to the guys above him on that list who are generally regarded as the best in the game last season. Landry was 59th. in the league in yards per game. I'm sure there others, particularly those who run a lot of screens or catch out of the backfield with regularity. As you know, there are RBs with more YAC than actual yards because they're catching a lot of balls behind the line; I'm sure there are a few WRs getting thrown a relatively high percentage of those kinds of balls as well.

Typically slot receivers produce more percentage of their total yardage after the catch compared to outside WR. Therefore Cobb's YAC % should be compared to guys mostly playing in the slot.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Typically slot receivers produce more percentage of their total yardage after the catch compared to outside WR. Therefore Cobb's YAC % should be compared to guys mostly playing in the slot.

Like I said, we don't like YAC for YAC's sake. We like it for what it produces. In Cobb's case, he put up wideout numbers from the slot by using YAC...yardage average, TDs, +20 yard catches, gross yards. Which is the whole point of this argument.

Oh, I'm sure there are slot guys who have a higher percent of YAC, just as there are running backs who do. Those guys do not put up these kinds of wide out numbers, at least not last season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Eli vs Aaron.....which WR's are gonna get better thrown balls?

So, how come nobody wants to discount the play of the Denver, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Indianapolis or Detroit WRs where the quality of QB play in 2014 was high and/or simply where the number of team throws was high increasing opportunities?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Cobb is one of the best WRs in the NFL but I have a hard time saying he is the best.

I never said he is the best WR in the league. I said he was the best WR in 2014, then refined that statement to say he was the most valuable receiver in the league in 2014.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Rodgers had a QB rating of 112.2 last season so his rating improved by 22.1 when throwing to Cobb. Eli Manning (92.1) improved by 35.5 points targeting Beckham.

Hmmm...I should have mentioned that the QB rating I cited was the PFF version. However, now that you mention it, I guess the QB rating cited for the wide receiver is probably the standard QB rating which would make the numbers you used above the correct numbers. Which I'm okay with because the eye-test last year appeared to show Beckham as being an insanely good receiver.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I never said he is the best WR in the league. I said he was the best WR in 2014, then refined that statement to say he was the most valuable receiver in the league in 2014.

After looking at the numbers, and thanks to captainWIMM for pointing out a mistake, Beckham would probably have to take the crown for most valuable. He improved Eli's passer rating by 35.5 points. Cobb improved Rodgers rating by 22.1 points. Cobb was terrific last season but he also has the best QB in the NFL. Beckham had a much better statistical season (keep in mind he missed the first four weeks of the year and came off the bench in week 5) and had a much worse QB throwing him the ball. If he could control himself off the field then Josh Gordon would probably be the best receiver in the NFL because the guy was one of the top-5 receivers in his first year with a collection of quarterbacks that would, conservatively, rank somewhere in the mid-40s among starting QBs.

Jordan Matthews also appears to have had a huge impact on his quarterback's passer rating but I don't have the time to figure out which QB was throwing him the ball when and I'm not sure how much Chip Kelly had to do with that.

 

[HardRightEdge]

After looking at the numbers, and thanks to captainWIMM for pointing out a mistake, Beckham would probably have to take the crown for most valuable. He improved Eli's passer rating by 35.5 points. Cobb improved Rodgers rating by 22.1 points. Cobb was terrific last season but he also has the best QB in the NFL. Beckham had a much better statistical season (keep in mind he missed the first four weeks of the year and came off the bench in week 5) and had a much worse QB throwing him the ball. If he could control himself off the field then Josh Gordon would probably be the best receiver in the NFL because the guy was one of the top-5 receivers in his first year with a collection of quarterbacks that would, conservatively, rank somewhere in the mid-40s among starting QBs.

Jordan Matthews also appears to have had a huge impact on his quarterback's passer rating but I don't have the time to figure out which QB was throwing him the ball when and I'm not sure how much Chip Kelly had to do with that.

I've addressed these points.

When a receiver improves his QBs passer rating by wide margin it says more about the other receivers on the squad than anything else.

Additionally, the spread between Manning and Rodgers in 2014 lies chiefly in the interceptions. If Manning happened not to throw them when targeting Beckham, so be it. Again, that may be a matter of the performance spread among the receivers on that team. Manning threw 79 more balls; 15% more than Rodgers. That's a lot of opportunity for higher gross numbers for a Giant receiver than one with the Packers.

Beckham did not have a better season than Cobb, as illustrated in my previous posts. Their targets, catches, average per catch, gross yards and TDs are nearly indistinguishable. Cobb had more first downs and +20 plays, by significant margins.

The Beckham argument is predicated on the projection to 16 games played. That's speculation. A couple of poor games would have dropped his per target numbers and/or QB rating considerably. You judge a player's season (as opposed to fantasy draft value in the next season) on what they actually did, not on what they might have done.

Why don't we just project what Cobb would have done if Rodgers had thrown 15% more passes? Maybe then the the gross numbers would be high enough that people might actually look at and appreciate the per target numbers. Or how about if Rodgers had thrown 650 balls like Stafford averages?

In terms of production per team opportunity, Dez Bryant was the best receiver in the league last season given that Romo threw the ball only 435 times, 38% fewer than E. Manning. I think it is safe to say the Cowboys threw fewer passes in 16 games than the Giants did in the 12 games that Beckham played.

But at a certain point you have to set aside the speculative projections and look at what happened when the guy was actually thrown the ball, assuming some minimum number of qualifying opportunities, which Cobb's 126 targets would surely satisfy.

For about the 5th. time, I'm not saying Cobb is the best receiver in the league. I'm saying he was the most valuable in 2014. Was he the best fantasy receiver in 2014? I don't know and I don't care. Will he be the most valuable receiver in 2015? Who knows. Will he be the best fantasy receiver in 2015? Again, who cares?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

After looking at the numbers, and thanks to captainWIMM for pointing out a mistake, Beckham would probably have to take the crown for most valuable. He improved Eli's passer rating by 35.5 points. Cobb improved Rodgers rating by 22.1 points. Cobb was terrific last season but he also has the best QB in the NFL. Beckham had a much better statistical season (keep in mind he missed the first four weeks of the year and came off the bench in week 5) and had a much worse QB throwing him the ball. If he could control himself off the field then Josh Gordon would probably be the best receiver in the NFL because the guy was one of the top-5 receivers in his first year with a collection of quarterbacks that would, conservatively, rank somewhere in the mid-40s among starting QBs.

Jordan Matthews also appears to have had a huge impact on his quarterback's passer rating but I don't have the time to figure out which QB was throwing him the ball when and I'm not sure how much Chip Kelly had to do with that.

Jordan Matthews improved the Eagles QB rating by 31 points when targeting him. Gordon had a similar impact on Browns QBs in 2013 (34.4 points). I´m not convinced it is the best way to figure out the most valuable receiver though.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A final thought on the Cobb matter:

Buddy Ryan infamously said of Chris Carter after cutting him, "all he does in catch touchdowns".

In 2014, all Cobb did was make first downs, catch touchdowns, and catch a high percentage of the balls thrown his way, with a pretty fair number of gross yards as a byproduct. That's hard to top.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

A final thought on the Cobb matter:

Buddy Ryan infamously said of Chris Carter after cutting him, "all he does in catch touchdowns".

In 2014, all Cobb did was make first downs, catch touchdowns, and catch a high percentage of the balls thrown his way, with a pretty fair number of gross yards as a byproduct. That's hard to top.

Nobody is denying that Cobb is a top receiver and the Packers were extremely smart to re-sign him. But there's some merit to argue about Nelson being the best receiver on the Packers.

Once again, Cobb put up some fantastic numbers last season but just like difference in QB rating compared to other WR on a team I don't think first downs per target or reception is the best way to measure a receiver's performance.

 

[SoonerPack]

First let me say I am not diminishing the arguments of either WIMM or HRE rather putting it into perspective. This debate is similar to choosing between a BMW or a Mercedes. One has advantages in a few areas while the other stands taller in other respects. At the end of the day I would gladly climb into either one of the vehicles and many of my neighbors would be jealous. That's the way I see this debate. We have 2 high powered sports cars in the garage and a QB that is pumping nothing but premium grade petro into both. The neighbors (most other teams) would gladly take one of these imports let alone have both to choose from. This is a debate I would have no problem "losing" if you know what I am saying. I do love all the unearthed stats you guys are dropping as it's giving me a new found appreciation for both of our boys. It seems to me that more times than not when you two hook up and keep it civil we all get to sit back and enjoy some pretty high caliber banter and I thank you for that. Have a killer day and please forgive me if you find the analogy ridiculous. I love analogies and just can't help myself!

Be good y'all and as always G P G!!!

 

[HardRightEdge]

Nobody is denying that Cobb is a top receiver and the Packers were extremely smart to re-sign him. But there's some merit to argue about Nelson being the best receiver on the Packers.

Once again, Cobb put up some fantastic numbers last season but just like difference in QB rating compared to other WR on a team I don't think first downs per target or reception is the best way to measure a receiver's performance.

I feel it is incumbent on me to point out that the statements in those two paragraphs do not address my argument.

If I had to choose one Packer wide out for the 2015 season it would be Nelson. Cobb was more valuable in 2014.

I never said receivers should be judged solely on first downs per target or reception. They are part of the overall picture and certainly a differentiating factor when comparing Cobb to Beckham in evaluating 2014 performance. That said, moving the chains is clearly an underappreciated value, one that I anticipated being reflected in responses.

It's the per target numbers, across the board, in both possession and long ball categories, together with impressive gross numbers, on which I base the argument.

 

[TJV]

Where was all this information on Cobb when we were discussing his worth to the offense (before he signed his current contract)?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

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[Sunshinepacker]

I've addressed these points.

When a receiver improves his QBs passer rating by wide margin it says more about the other receivers on the squad than anything else.

Additionally, the spread between Manning and Rodgers in 2014 lies chiefly in the interceptions. If Manning happened not to throw them when targeting Beckham, so be it. Again, that may be a matter of the performance spread among the receivers on that team. Manning threw 79 more balls; 15% more than Rodgers. That's a lot of opportunity for higher gross numbers for a Giant receiver than one with the Packers.

Beckham did not have a better season than Cobb, as illustrated in my previous posts. Their targets, catches, average per catch, gross yards and TDs are nearly indistinguishable. Cobb had more first downs and +20 plays, by significant margins.

The Beckham argument is predicated on the projection to 16 games played. That's speculation. A couple of poor games would have dropped his per target numbers and/or QB rating considerably. You judge a player's season (as opposed to fantasy draft value in the next season) on what they actually did, not on what they might have done.

Why don't we just project what Cobb would have done if Rodgers had thrown 15% more passes? Maybe then the the gross numbers would be high enough that people might actually look at and appreciate the per target numbers. Or how about if Rodgers had thrown 650 balls like Stafford averages?

In terms of production per team opportunity, Dez Bryant was the best receiver in the league last season given that Romo threw the ball only 435 times, 38% fewer than E. Manning. I think it is safe to say the Cowboys threw fewer passes in 16 games than the Giants did in the 12 games that Beckham played.

But at a certain point you have to set aside the speculative projections and look at what happened when the guy was actually thrown the ball, assuming some minimum number of qualifying opportunities, which Cobb's 126 targets would surely satisfy.

For about the 5th. time, I'm not saying Cobb is the best receiver in the league. I'm saying he was the most valuable in 2014. Was he the best fantasy receiver in 2014? I don't know and I don't care. Will he be the most valuable receiver in 2015? Who knows. Will he be the best fantasy receiver in 2015? Again, who cares?

First, my apologies if it didn't come across but I know you're not saying Cobb is the best in the NFL. From what I understand, you're saying that Cobb was the best WR in the NFL last year.

Now, just comparing Beckham vs Cobb (note, these numbers are from Pro Football Focus); Beckham was thrown to 129 times while Cobb was thrown to 125 times. Beckham played 793 snaps while Cobb played 943 snaps (only looking at regular season). PFF shows a catch percent of 70.5% for Beckham and 72.8% for Manning. Personally, and this is simply opinion, I think the rate for Beckham is more impressive because Rodgers is a MUCH more accurate QB. One of the strongest pieces of evidence in favor of Beckham from last year is that he averaged 2.74 yards per route run and Cobb averaged 2.24 yards; for context, Beckham was third in the NFL in this category (behind AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas) while Cobb was 12th.

All of this is just to say, both receivers were REALLY, REALLY good. When comparing top receivers it really comes down to splitting hairs and there's not really a definite answer.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Where was all this information on Cobb when we were discussing his worth to the offense (before he signed his current contract)?

https://www.packerforum.com/threads/cobb-stronger-than-he-looks.56811/#post-585662



Upon further review, I concluded he needed an upgrade from "possession receiver of the year".

Stop asking these questions...do you know how hard it is to find these things among 5000+ posts?

 

[HardRightEdge]

First, my apologies if it didn't come across but I know you're not saying Cobb is the best in the NFL. From what I understand, you're saying that Cobb was the best WR in the NFL last year.

Now, just comparing Beckham vs Cobb (note, these numbers are from Pro Football Focus); Beckham was thrown to 129 times while Cobb was thrown to 125 times. Beckham played 793 snaps while Cobb played 943 snaps (only looking at regular season). PFF shows a catch percent of 70.5% for Beckham and 72.8% for Manning. Personally, and this is simply opinion, I think the rate for Beckham is more impressive because Rodgers is a MUCH more accurate QB. One of the strongest pieces of evidence in favor of Beckham from last year is that he averaged 2.74 yards per route run and Cobb averaged 2.24 yards; for context, Beckham was third in the NFL in this category (behind AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas) while Cobb was 12th.

All of this is just to say, both receivers were REALLY, REALLY good. When comparing top receivers it really comes down to splitting hairs and there's not really a definite answer.

Cobb had 1,287 yards 2014. The Packers threw the ball 536 times.

If Cobb had run a route on every single Packer pass play his yards per pass route would have been 2.40. Certainly he was not on the field for every one of those plays, so his actual number is higher than 2.40. So, your number is incorrect on the low side. I can't speak to the other numbers, other than to say gross snaps are irrelevant unless we're going to be assessing their run blocking too.

The Giants were 3 - 5 in games where Beckham led the Giants in receiving; they were 3 - 5 when he did not play at all or was not the leading receiver. And the team went 6 - 10. That makes it very difficult to give him "most valuable receiver" consideration.