Prioritizing Needs

[OldSchool101]

The Packers WILL be using the 5th year option on Love by May 1 at $20mil for '24. They have 2 years to see what Love can do, but IMHO it won't take nearly that long to see that he's GB's future stud.

Exactly. I really think this time without pressure has been huge. Regardless of the circumstances, the confidence Love gained in that Eagles game has been marinating.

I expect Love could have a slow start just getting into the flow, but I fully expect him to have a breakout game in several weeks times. I think it’ll be smart getting him a couple more Receiving upgrades for these next 2 seasons. Particularly a top 10 league level TE, plus a Slot WR that is formidable (top 50 type). The Amari experiment is over and Randall Cobb is as good as gone. Eventually I’d like to overlap RB IF there is a RD4-5 graded player that is a dual threat prospect.

Rodgers had Jennings and Driver and Donald Lee and the next season we had Finley and Lee. With Ryan Grant at RB. He also had a pretty solid OL with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher at LT/RT Josh Sittinnand Daryn Colledge and Scott Wells at Center. That was a very good OL. IF We get an extra draft pick, 1 more upper echelon OL might be warranted. If we come out of this draft with a WR, TE and OL by close of Round4 we should be solid.

 

[milani]

But not ridiculous to say he looks like a better tackle.

I certainly hope he blossoms. I liked the days of Tauscher and Clifton.

 

[milani]

Exactly. I really think this time without pressure has been huge. Regardless of the circumstances, the confidence Love gained in that Eagles game has been marinating.

I expect Love could have a slow start just getting into the flow, but I fully expect him to have a breakout game in several weeks times. I think it’ll be smart getting him a couple more Receiving upgrades for these next 2 seasons. Particularly a top 10 league level TE, plus a Slot WR that is formidable (top 50 type). The Amari experiment is over and Randall Cobb is as good as gone. Eventually I’d like to overlap RB IF there is a RD4-5 graded player that is a dual threat prospect.

Rodgers had Jennings and Driver and Donald Lee and the next season we had Finley and Lee. With Ryan Grant at RB. He also had a pretty solid OL with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher at LT/RT Josh Sittinnand Daryn Colledge and Scott Wells at Center. That was a very good OL. IF We get an extra draft pick, 1 more upper echelon OL might be warranted. If we come out of this draft with a WR, TE and OL by close of Round4 we should be solid.

It will definitely be a work in progress. And he will take his lumps as almost all new QBs do. Even though he has been on the roster for several years he will essentially be like a midseason rookie come September. He has so little game experience and defenses are going to attack him differently than Rodgers. He does have the legs and the arm of a young player. So that is to his advantage. Can he avoid injury enough? We never had to worry about Sundays without number 4. And the 2 times number 12 was absent it was disastrous. ( Excepting the Covid game. )

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Unfortunately this draft is not populated with Starting caliber Safeties that I feel would be better options. I wouldn’t box myself in and rely on that.
So I respectfully hard disagree 100%
Any trade capital could be imperative to open the totality of our options for landing a Safety. Relying on a rookie Safety to start is risky and we might look at an exchange of draft capital for a veteran player (at some juncture either this draft or post draft) or we could just sign a low priced, veteran Safety

Not even to mention that if we don’t include the Jets trade compensation? We’d taking our chances at a key position that’s thin in the draft AND we’d be simultaneously ignoring another position of need that’s thick with talent in areas we’d be selecting TE, Edge, DT or WR. We couldn’t even get a decent Safety in Day1 with Savage, what makes you think we’ll get one in this cluster?

I'm not suggesting there are any safety prospects available in this year's draft capable of starting in week 1. The Packers will need to add one before the start of the season though. I'm not sure they will be able to make it work by acquiring a veteran either.

Ryan Neal might be a decent option though.

The Packers WILL be using the 5th year option on Love by May 1 at $20mil for '24. They have 2 years to see what Love can do, but IMHO it won't take nearly that long to see that he's GB's future stud.

I would definitely prefer the Packers not exercising the fifth year option on Love. They should take the same approach as with Rodgers and extend him midseason if he shows enough promise over his first few starts.

 

[gopkrs]

I would definitely prefer the Packers not exercising the fifth year option on Love. They should take the same approach as with Rodgers and extend him midseason if he shows enough promise over his first few starts.

You can still do a contract after declaring for the 5th year option. At this point I can't see not going with Love for the two years. So doing the 5th year option gives a lot of time to sign a long term contract. And you would sign the long term contract in 2024 and add another year to the contract.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not suggesting there are any safety prospects available in this year's draft capable of starting in week 1. The Packers will need to add one before the start of the season though. I'm not sure they will be able to make it work by acquiring a veteran either.

I gotcha. Well I agree in that it’s certainly a top 3 need. We may get some fortune and have a more seasoned 4 year starter drop to us that we could plug in an emergency. I’ve already relayed to you who I think we should draft in Day 2. Battle is a Strong Safety who I think could start in a pinch, but probably shouldn’t be our primary plan either. He has prototypical size, but his underwhelming Physical percentiles might drop him some. Although he’s still a smidge faster than HaHa was. Battle has been superior in Coverage across 53 contests (77.7% Passer rating when targeted) and I think could hold his own as a Rookie if necessary.

 

[Dantés]

If I think about roster needs based more on what the Packers should be looking to accomplish in 2023 than about the biggest holes on the roster, I think I would come up with something more like this:

1. Tight End
2. Wide Receiver
3. Offensive Line
4. Defensive Line
5. Defensive Back

The reasoning is this: more than anything else, the Packers need to make sure that Jordan Love is set up to succeed, or at least show what he is capable of. If the supporting cast around him is poor and his play is uneven, that's not going to be very conclusive. They really need to have a good idea after this season of whether he's worth committing to in the long term.

That means gathering more pass catching options, shoring up his protection, and making sure they can run the ball. That will be a lot more important than improving at safety or having a 3rd/4th edge that can really play. Those are moves you focus on when you have the QB in place and you're trying to get a complete roster together to go on a SB run.

I also think it means bringing in the type of players that LaFleur needs to run his offense as designed. The time has finally come for him to be able to carry out his offense as designed without compromise. That will probably mean focusing on pass catchers who have some size/strength and can block.

I will be really disappointed if they use their premium picks on DB's and fail to come out of the draft with any help for Love. That, to me, would be incompetence.

 

[gopkrs]

Is Joey Porter jr. strictly a corner or could he also play safety?

 

[milani]

I'm not suggesting there are any safety prospects available in this year's draft capable of starting in week 1. The Packers will need to add one before the start of the season though. I'm not sure they will be able to make it work by acquiring a veteran either.

Ryan Neal might be a decent option though.



I would definitely prefer the Packers not exercising the fifth year option on Love. They should take the same approach as with Rodgers and extend him midseason if he shows enough promise over his first few starts

If I think about roster needs based more on what the Packers should be looking to accomplish in 2023 than about the biggest holes on the roster, I think I would come up with something more like this:

1. Tight End
2. Wide Receiver
3. Offensive Line
4. Defensive Line
5. Defensive Back

The reasoning is this: more than anything else, the Packers need to make sure that Jordan Love is set up to succeed, or at least show what he is capable of. If the supporting cast around him is poor and his play is uneven, that's not going to be very conclusive. They really need to have a good idea after this season of whether he's worth committing to in the long term.

That means gathering more pass catching options, shoring up his protection, and making sure they can run the ball. That will be a lot more important than improving at safety or having a 3rd/4th edge that can really play. Those are moves you focus on when you have the QB in place and you're trying to get a complete roster together to go on a SB run.

I also think it means bringing in the type of players that LaFleur needs to run his offense as designed. The time has finally come for him to be able to carry out his offense as designed without compromise. That will probably mean focusing on pass catchers who have some size/strength and can block.

I will be really disappointed if they use their premium picks on DB's and fail to come out of the draft with any help for Love. That, to me, would be incompetence.

Exactly!

 

[OldSchool101]

If I think about roster needs based more on what the Packers should be looking to accomplish in 2023 than about the biggest holes on the roster, I think I would come up with something more like this:

1. Tight End
2. Wide Receiver
3. Offensive Line
4. Defensive Line
5. Defensive Back

The reasoning is this: more than anything else, the Packers need to make sure that Jordan Love is set up to succeed, or at least show what he is capable of. If the supporting cast around him is poor and his play is uneven, that's not going to be very conclusive. They really need to have a good idea after this season of whether he's worth committing to in the long term.

That means gathering more pass catching options, shoring up his protection, and making sure they can run the ball. That will be a lot more important than improving at safety or having a 3rd/4th edge that can really play. Those are moves you focus on when you have the QB in place and you're trying to get a complete roster together to go on a SB run.

I also think it means bringing in the type of players that LaFleur needs to run his offense as designed. The time has finally come for him to be able to carry out his offense as designed without compromise. That will probably mean focusing on pass catchers who have some size/strength and can block.

I will be really disappointed if they use their premium picks on DB's and fail to come out of the draft with any help for Love. That, to me, would be incompetence.

Looking back across multiples drafts, GB was thinking that their QB play could largely carry the Offense. Thus with that in mind the Packers drafted to put a Defense in place that would compliment Rodger’s Offense. However a combination of consistently below average Defensive Coaching and Direction along with selecting players that never really exceeded expectation never brought the plan to fruition.

That said. It’s totally reasonable to expect that with a major change at QB to a inexperienced one, that the Packers would draft heavier initially on Offense. In consideration of that argument, I agree that its very reasonable to assume GB would get at bare minimum ONE 2nd Rounder in a trade deal. So using that obvious trade equity projection, I could absolutely see GB going after 3 of those choices by our #116 selection. My guess is we will go WR, TE and OT inside those first 5 picks (not necessarily in order) It’s probable that GB either selects an Offensive player at #15 OR uses 3 of the next 4 selections (42,45,79,116)
on Offensive upgrades.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You can still do a contract after declaring for the 5th year option. At this point I can't see not going with Love for the two years. So doing the 5th year option gives a lot of time to sign a long term contract. And you would sign the long term contract in 2024 and add another year to the contract.

In my opinion the Packers should be hesitant about exercising the fifth year option on Love because they would have to pay him more than $20 million next season even if he doesn't perform up to expectations. Savage should work as a cautionary tale about using it. I agree they would have enough time to sign an extension if he ends up being a decent starter.

I gotcha. Well I agree in that it’s certainly a top 3 need. We may get some fortune and have a more seasoned 4 year starter drop to us that we could plug in an emergency. I’ve already relayed to you who I think we should draft in Day 2. Battle is a Strong Safety who I think could start in a pinch, but probably shouldn’t be our primary plan either. He has prototypical size, but his underwhelming Physical percentiles might drop him some. Although he’s still a smidge faster than HaHa was. Battle has been superior in Coverage across 53 contests (77.7% Passer rating when targeted) and I think could hold his own as a Rookie if necessary.

Battle struggled in coverage last season, allowing a passer rating of 109 though.

The reasoning is this: more than anything else, the Packers need to make sure that Jordan Love is set up to succeed, or at least show what he is capable of. If the supporting cast around him is poor and his play is uneven, that's not going to be very conclusive. They really need to have a good idea after this season of whether he's worth committing to in the long term.

That means gathering more pass catching options, shoring up his protection, and making sure they can run the ball. That will be a lot more important than improving at safety or having a 3rd/4th edge that can really play.

While I definitely agree the Packers need to surround Love with more talent on the offensive side of the ball they need a decent defense for him to succeed as well. Otherwise it's possible the team will be down by multiple scores too often making it more difficult for him to excel.

Is Joey Porter jr. strictly a corner or could he also play safety?

FWIW Porter hardly played any safety in college.

 

[tynimiller]

Is Joey Porter jr. strictly a corner or could he also play safety?

Personally if he is available I cannot ignore not drafting him, and immediately he is our second best outside corner - I’d be looking at stokes and/or Douglas and saying you want to up your snaps , whose moving to safety before I tell JP Jr that.

 

[Dantés]

While I definitely agree the Packers need to surround Love with more talent on the offensive side of the ball they need a decent defense for him to succeed as well. Otherwise it's possible the team will be down by multiple scores too often making it more difficult for him to excel.

A wretched defense could skew their ability to assess him, but a rookie safety from a terrible draft class is not going to be the difference between a viable and non-viable stop unit. Either Barry can make it work with essentially the pieces he has now, or he can't. It's not like he doesn't have anything to work with.

 

[gopkrs]

In my opinion the Packers should be hesitant about exercising the fifth year option on Love because they would have to pay him more than $20 million next season even if he doesn't perform up to expectations. Savage should work as a cautionary tale about using it. I agree they would have enough time to sign an extension if he ends up being a decent starter.

Savage just seems like it was a mistake. But QBs are a different animal as far as money is concerned. The Packers don't want to let him just test the free market. Because a young QB with good prospects will be expensive. And the franchise tag will be a lot of money when they could have exercised the 5th year if they need to look at him some more or we just want to be in a decent bargaining position for a long term contract. Well, at least that makes sense to me.

 

[Pkrjones]

In my opinion the Packers should be hesitant about exercising the fifth year option on Love because they would have to pay him more than $20 million next season even if he doesn't perform up to expectations. Savage should work as a cautionary tale about using it. I agree they would have enough time to sign an extension if he ends up being a decent starter.

So you're advocating that Gute pulls a NYGiants? The Giants didn't 5th year Daniel Jones last year for $22.38Mil (for this upcoming '23 season) and after he had a decent year had to decide whether to let him go to UFA or extend him. They extended him for 4 yrs/$160Mil with $82Mil guaranteed at signing.

Unless Gute/MLF are COMPLETELY wrong about Love that $20Mil 5th year option is small potatoes for an average NFL starter. Love will cost A LOT more next year unless he completely flames-out, which I think is a long-shot.

 

[tynimiller]

You have to 5th year option him, IF he fails miserably - you're most likely drafting a rookie in 2024 and you'd have a rookie contract plus one year of overpaying Loves 5th year. That's worst case.

 

[milani]

You have to 5th year option him, IF he fails miserably - you're most likely drafting a rookie in 2024 and you'd have a rookie contract plus one year of overpaying Loves 5th year. That's worst case.

I think Love will have an average year. Not a total bust but a young struggling QB in his first year with a young struggling team.

 

[tynimiller]

I think Love will have an average year. Not a total bust but a young struggling QB in his first year with a young struggling team.

Which is fine. We could win two games and still have an indication of his future either way.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

A wretched defense could skew their ability to assess him, but a rookie safety from a terrible draft class is not going to be the difference between a viable and non-viable stop unit. Either Barry can make it work with essentially the pieces he has now, or he can't. It's not like he doesn't have anything to work with.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want the Packers to reach for safety in the draft just for the sake of selecting one. In my opinion they will need to improve the talent level at the position somehow to feature a decent defense though.

But QBs are a different animal as far as money is concerned. The Packers don't want to let him just test the free market. Because a young QB with good prospects will be expensive. And the franchise tag will be a lot of money when they could have exercised the 5th year if they need to look at him some more or we just want to be in a decent bargaining position for a long term contract. Well, at least that makes sense to me.

The Packers could offer Love a long term deal as soon as he shows some promise as a starter. If he does, both the fifth year option or the franchise tag would guarantee they have enough time to sign him to an extension but I wouldn't expect him to play under either of them. So the tag costing significantly more doesn't make a difference in my opinion. The team not picking up his fifth year option makes sure they don't owe him more than $20 million if he doesn't develop into a decent starter though.

So you're advocating that Gute pulls a NYGiants? The Giants didn't 5th year Daniel Jones last year for $22.38Mil (for this upcoming '23 season) and after he had a decent year had to decide whether to let him go to UFA or extend him. They extended him for 4 yrs/$160Mil with $82Mil guaranteed at signing.

I believe the Giants made a huge mistake signing Jones to a deal like that but picking up his fifth year option last year wouldn't have made any difference in him asking for that kind of money.

Unless Gute/MLF are COMPLETELY wrong about Love that $20Mil 5th year option is small potatoes for an average NFL starter. Love will cost A LOT more next year unless he completely flames-out, which I think is a long-shot.

As mentioned above, if Love proves to be a decent starter I don't expect him to play on the fifth year option in 2024 anyway.

 

[gopkrs]

I can't get out of my mind the picture of Kelsey just going down field about 5 yards and then just standing there a few seconds to wait and see where he will be able to go to an open space. Not a timing play. If there is a TE that has that kind of smarts and patience; I would think about taking him at 15 even if he is not the best blocker. Or trade down to where you think he would still be available.

 

[tynimiller]

I can't get out of my mind the picture of Kelsey just going down field about 5 yards and then just standing there a few seconds to wait and see where he will be able to go to an open space. Not a timing play. If there is a TE that has that kind of smarts and patience; I would think about taking him at 15 even if he is not the best blocker. Or trade down to where you think he would still be available.

To be fair athletic types that are receiving threats in year one I only see Kincaid and LaPorta for sure...Musgrave is in that vein of athletic but he is going to take a year or so to get up to form, Oregon State under utilized him.

Mayer is a VERY SMART receiver, with excellent hands however he trods to the right spot more so given how he carries his frame.

Davis Allen or Payne Durham both oooze athletic receiving savvy for a mid rounder type guy.

 

[OldSchool101]

You have to 5th year option him, IF he fails miserably - you're most likely drafting a rookie in 2024 and you'd have a rookie contract plus one year of overpaying Loves 5th year. That's worst case.

Yep. Also if you look at the financial risk from a positional level, in that scenario where you are forced to draft his replacement you’d have less than $30mil tied up in your entire QB room. For 1 season that is still QB room peanuts (when compared across the league in 2024).

 

[gopkrs]

To be fair athletic types that are receiving threats in year one I only see Kincaid and LaPorta for sure...Musgrave is in that vein of athletic but he is going to take a year or so to get up to form, Oregon State under utilized him.

Mayer is a VERY SMART receiver, with excellent hands however he trods to the right spot more so given how he carries his frame.

Davis Allen or Payne Durham both oooze athletic receiving savvy for a mid rounder type guy.

You know, Kelsey sort of plods also.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yep. Also if you look at the financial risk from a positional level, in that scenario where you are forced to draft his replacement you’d have less than $30mil tied up in your entire QB room. For 1 season that is still QB room peanuts (when compared across the league in 2024).

That still doesn't mean it's a smart approach to guarantee paying Love more than $20 million without knowing if he will develop into a decent starter.

 

[Dantés]

I don't know if the Packers still plan to potentially bring in more help along the defensive line via free agency (e.g. Matt Ioannidis, A'Shawn Robinson, Chris Wormley), but if they don't plan to or can't (or if they do, but it's a really modest investment), DL is a big priority in this draft.

They're going to need a lot of rookie snaps AND the talent in this class dries up really fast.