Playoffs - Who Scares You?

[El Guapo]

Where did you see the ESPN playoff machine? It's about that time of year for it, but I don't see it on their site

I didn't even feel like looking, so I just typed ESPN playoff machine into my favorite search engine and it was the first link.

 

[PackerDNA]

Thanks Longtime Fan and El Guapo!!

 

[gbgary]

as the season's gone along...no one really. the top teams all have flaws and are far from perfect. it comes down to match-ups, who's the healthiest at the time, and the weather. the Packers have as good a shot as any. wouldn't want to go to tampa and play in 80+ degree heat again.

 

[gbgary]

Everybody. Since there's no big gap between anybody, everybody is a threat.

i like this take. lol

 

[Krabs]

Tier 1- Saints-the defense is starting to play like many people thought it capable of, and when healthy the offense is loaded with talent that could put up points on anyone.
Bucs-. since clobbering us, they've been up and down, either very good or very bad.
Rams-. that defense can be a big problem. Plenty of talent on offense too, I just don't trust Goff in the big spots.
Seahawks- the defense has been much better lately, but it's still too much the Russell Wilson show.

They say Brees is coming back, but dude is 41, had 11 fractured ribs and a collapsed lung on his right side. I don't trust T. Hill at all at QB. I don't see them as the scariest in the playoffs without Brees. Even if he comes back I just don't see it happening for them.

The Bucs game against the Packers was an anomaly. The Bucs defense is ranked 15th overall and have given up the 2nd most passing TD's in the league this season. Rodgers throws a pick 6 and then backs it up with basically another pick 6. Sure, the defense got after Rodgers, but without those two interceptions it is still a game. Those two plays completely took the wind out of the sails of the Packers. If they have to come to Lambeau it is a different game.

The Rams are the most balanced team NFC. They are the 4th ranked defense in the league and have given up the least TD's through the air. They are 9th in the league in rushing yards and 6th in rushing TD's. They remind me of the 49ers last year with a great defense and a potent running attack. Both are the Packers weaknesses.

The Seahawks can just flat out score. I think they are more scary than both the Saints and the Bucs. They are not balanced though. Shut them down a bit and everyone can score on them. They have given up the 3rd most TD's in the entire league. Surprisingly, they have not given up as many passing TD's as the Bucs have.

In this case I have to disagree with your assessment, but that what conversations are for. And you're right, a lot can change. Injuries always come into play. A team can get hot. I hope it is the Packers. Still anyone's NFC at this point.

 

[jon]

Defense wins championships.
The Rams and Saints look toughest in the NFC.

 

[El Guapo]

Defense wins championships.

That generally holds until a good offense comes along and whips the good defense.

The only team that really scares me in the NFC is Tampa Bay. They have the defense to stop us and an offense to beat us. Luckily as others pointed out, they have been inconsistent as of late. The Saints were the only other team with the tools, but without Brees (or even a younger Brees) I don't think they scare me. They can beat us but it's not like the fear that I had last year about the 49ers in the playoffs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Defense wins championships.
The Rams and Saints look toughest in the NFC.

I'm with you on your first point. In six SBs a #1 D has been matched against a #1 O. The team with the #1 D won 5 of 6, the lone exception being one of Montana's 49er teams.

That said, I think the Saints have the best D in the NFC. If GB does have to face them again, I hope it's in GB.

 

[Mondio]

The Saints are a good team. Their defense seems to be playing better, but I'm confident we'd be moving the ball and scoring points on them. But overall I think they're a pretty solid team. I do question just how good the D is, not that I think they're bad, i don't. But everyone is flying pretty high on them lately. They started slow and then they shut Tampa down, but besides them who have they really played in that stretch? But they are a well balanced team. Good run game, very good passing targets and their D seems to play a lot faster and with more pop than ours does.

It's why i'm not too excited by our defense. Shutting down the Bears and a Shell of an offense in Philly isn't exactly giving me a confidence boost.

 

[Do7]

The Saints are a good team. Their defense seems to be playing better, but I'm confident we'd be moving the ball and scoring points on them. But overall I think they're a pretty solid team. I do question just how good the D is, not that I think they're bad, i don't. But everyone is flying pretty high on them lately. They started slow and then they shut Tampa down, but besides them who have they really played in that stretch? But they are a well balanced team. Good run game, very good passing targets and their D seems to play a lot faster and with more pop than ours does.

It's why i'm not too excited by our defense. Shutting down the Bears and a Shell of an offense in Philly isn't exactly giving me a confidence boost.

Thank you! I am so sick of everyone overhyping this Saints team, particularly their defense. Yes they are formidable and are pretty good, but let's go over the teams they've beaten ever since they lost to us and tell me do they seem as dominant as people make them?

Week 4: Lions (W 35-29)
Week 5: Chargers (W 27-30)
Week 6: Panthers (W 24-27)
Week 7: Bears (W 26-23)
Week 8: Bucs ( W 38-3)
Week 9: Niners (W 27-13)
Week 10: Falcons (W 24-3)
Week 11: Broncos (W 31-3)
Week 12: Falcons (W 21-16)

Of all the teams they've played only one of them has a winning record which is The Bucs. Granted they managed to beat the breaks off them, which is something we failed in, but I do think there is a bit of smoke and mirrors going on here in regards to their defense. I know this is obvious, but their defense can be had, especially their secondary. We put up over 30 points against 3 of the top defenses in the league including NO, the other two were Chi, and Indy. NO I respect them, but I do not fear going down in their place and beating them once again. And tbh the dome as of lately isn't really a scary place anymore considering how NO has been beaten or nearly beaten there over the past few years. They better hold on to that 1 seed b/c I DEFINITELY don't see them beating us in Lambeau.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Saints are a good team. Their defense seems to be playing better, but I'm confident we'd be moving the ball and scoring points on them. But overall I think they're a pretty solid team. I do question just how good the D is, not that I think they're bad, i don't. But everyone is flying pretty high on them lately. They started slow and then they shut Tampa down, but besides them who have they really played in that stretch? But they are a well balanced team. Good run game, very good passing targets and their D seems to play a lot faster and with more pop than ours does.

It's why i'm not too excited by our defense. Shutting down the Bears and a Shell of an offense in Philly isn't exactly giving me a confidence boost.

GBs D and STs are the big question marks. The O is unfairly tasked with overcoming mistakes by both units. That could still be a formula for a SB appearance, but the odds favor a complete team like the Saints.

 

[Krabs]

Week 4: Lions (W 35-29)
Week 5: Chargers (W 27-30)
Week 6: Panthers (W 24-27)
Week 7: Bears (W 26-23)
Week 8: Bucs ( W 38-3)
Week 9: Niners (W 27-13)
Week 10: Falcons (W 24-3)
Week 11: Broncos (W 31-3)
Week 12: Falcons (W 21-16)

Another thing to note here is 3 of the games they won against losing teams were only by 3 points. Also, the Broncos didn't have a QB due to COVID. It takes a lot to win 9 games in a row, but things have fallen their way.

 

[Heyjoe4]

They say Brees is coming back, but dude is 41, had 11 fractured ribs and a collapsed lung on his right side. I don't trust T. Hill at all at QB. I don't see them as the scariest in the playoffs without Brees. Even if he comes back I just don't see it happening for them.

The Bucs game against the Packers was an anomaly. The Bucs defense is ranked 15th overall and have given up the 2nd most passing TD's in the league this season. Rodgers throws a pick 6 and then backs it up with basically another pick 6. Sure, the defense got after Rodgers, but without those two interceptions it is still a game. Those two plays completely took the wind out of the sails of the Packers. If they have to come to Lambeau it is a different game.

The Rams are the most balanced team NFC. They are the 4th ranked defense in the league and have given up the least TD's through the air. They are 9th in the league in rushing yards and 6th in rushing TD's. They remind me of the 49ers last year with a great defense and a potent running attack. Both are the Packers weaknesses.

The Seahawks can just flat out score. I think they are more scary than both the Saints and the Bucs. They are not balanced though. Shut them down a bit and everyone can score on them. They have given up the 3rd most TD's in the entire league. Surprisingly, they have not given up as many passing TD's as the Bucs have.

In this case I have to disagree with your assessment, but that what conversations are for. And you're right, a lot can change. Injuries always come into play. A team can get hot. I hope it is the Packers. Still anyone's NFC at this point.

The last two teams the Pack faced in an NFCCG were the 49ers last year and the Falcons in, I think, 2017. GB was clearly outclassed in those two games.

If this year's NFCCG comes down to GB v the Saints, I expect a much more competitive game, whether it's played in GB or NO. Do7's analysis of the Saints' games between weeks 4 and 12 don't show an overpowering D. The Bucs game is the clear exception, and a bit surprising.

Of far more concern are the top 2 or 3 teams in the AFC, all superior to NO, IMO. Anyway, let's beat the Lions first.........

 

[U.P. Packfan]

The team in that list that scares me the most is the Packers. We have been winning games the last couple of years with a team that really isn't that good. A Rod is definitely playing better this year but still seems to lose it at times. Jones has been more miss than hit lately except for that 77 yd burst. And the defense can not tackle anyone. I'm confident that we will win the division this year but I don't see us lasting long in the playoffs. That doesn't mean that I won't be hoping we do but just that I don't expect it. As for the Super Bowl? I don't see any chance of us winning against KC or Pitt or even Balt.

 

[SeahawkFan80]

Interesting thread....good thread. I am not sure what is going on with my team. I am concerned about our defense just starting to gel. Offense has issues too. But You guys will end up doing well, at least in the first round. Probably the second round too. My team needs more people back from injury and Carson needs to get well. We may get a penny back this week too. Good luck to you all. Go Hawks.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Empty stadiums present a different dynamic and home field advantages might play out differently.

Yeah in this crowd less season home field advantage hasn't been a factor.

The team in that list that scares me the most is the Packers. We have been winning games the last couple of years with a team that really isn't that good. A Rod is definitely playing better this year but still seems to lose it at times. Jones has been more miss than hit lately except for that 77 yd burst. And the defense can not tackle anyone. I'm confident that we will win the division this year but I don't see us lasting long in the playoffs. That doesn't mean that I won't be hoping we do but just that I don't expect it. As for the Super Bowl? I don't see any chance of us winning against KC or Pitt or even Balt.

Specifically, the Packers' D scares me - in particular the tackling (or lack thereof), and that Pettine seems as hard-headed as MM. We've seen the last few games when he's allowed his impact players to blitz, the results are there.

I think this team has the talent to reach the SB. The Saints, Seahawks, and Rams don't really concern me (the Bucs do, a little bit). But yeah, the AFC top 2 or 3 are all better than the best NFC team.

But winning an NFCCG would be progress after the last NFCCG against Seattle, Atlanta, and San Francisco. I still want then to win it all of course, but would be sorta happy if it's "just" the Halas trophy. Then next year, get a legit #2 WR, find a new DC, and draft a whole helluva lot better! And please, find an impact ILB.

 

[Krabs]

Of far more concern are the top 2 or 3 teams in the AFC, all superior to NO, IMO. Anyway, let's beat the Lions first.........

Totally agree. The classic cliché of one game at a time comes into play here for sure. Beat the team in front of you and let it play out. The Chiefs, Steelers, Titans and Bills would all be hard beats in the Super Bowl for any NFC team.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Totally agree. The classic cliché of one game at a time comes into play here for sure. Beat the team in front of you and let it play out. The Chiefs, Steelers, Titans and Bills would all be hard beats in the Super Bowl for any NFC team.

Yeah and the Lions have historically given the Packers fits. So stay focus on the job at hand. We'll see how ready the coaches have the team for Sunday's game.

 

[AKCheese]

Who scares me in the playoffs?

Whoever comes out of the tunnel at halftime.... I don’t know if other teams adjust better? Or we make incorrect adjustments? Or cliche “motivation stuff”, which should not be an issue at this level. But.... this is a BAD second half team...

 

[PackAttack12]

Honestly...

If the game is being played at Lambeau? Not a one. There are a couple of road matchups that would make me nervous, but I'm confident in what the Packers would be able to do at home.

 

[Royal Pain]

If the season ended today the Vikings would play at Lambeau in the 1st round. While they have a couple of difficult games left and may not make the playoffs they did win at Lambeau earlier this year. I think we would beat them in a playoff game but they make me nervous.

 

[Dantés]

Who scares me in the playoffs?

Whoever comes out of the tunnel at halftime.... I don’t know if other teams adjust better? Or we make incorrect adjustments? Or cliche “motivation stuff”, which should not be an issue at this level. But.... this is a BAD second half team...

This comment got me interested, so I looked up Packers' scoring differential 1st half vs 2nd half this season.

Week 1, @ Minnesota:

• 1st: +11
• 2nd: -3

Week 2, Vs Detroit:

• 1st: +3
• 2nd: +18

Week 3, @ New Orleans:

• 1st: -4
• 2nd: +11

Week 4, Vs Atlanta:

• 1st: +17
• 2nd: -3

Week 5, @ Tampa Bay:

• 1st: -18
• 2nd: -10

Week 6, @ Houston:

• 1st: +21
• 2nd: -6

Week 7, Vs Minnesota:

• 1st: Even
• 2nd: -6

Week 8, @ San Francisco:

• 1st: +18
• 2nd: -1

Week 9, Vs Jacksonville:

• 1st: +7
• 2nd: -3

Week 10, @ Indianapolis:

• 1st: +14
• 2nd: -14

Week 11, Vs Chicago:

• 1st: +17
• 2nd: -1

Week 12, Vs Philadelphia:

• 1st: +11
• 2nd: +3

Total:

• 1st: +97
• 2nd: -15

 

[El Guapo]

Interesting analysis. Thanks for pulling all of those numbers together.

I wonder what it would look like if you pulled the Packers 1989 stats into this side-by-side. The Cardiac Pack moniker was because we always had to come back from behind to win (or lose). I think that most teams in most sports have a subconscious tendency to ease up a bit when ahead in a game. Basketball is notorious for those type of seesaw games, but football too.

The Packers need to keep up the urgency through the 4th quarter.

 

[Dantés]

Interesting analysis. Thanks for pulling all of those numbers together.

I wonder what it would look like if you pulled the Packers 1989 stats into this side-by-side. The Cardiac Pack moniker was because we always had to come back from behind to win (or lose). I think that most teams in most sports have a subconscious tendency to ease up a bit when ahead in a game. Basketball is notorious for those type of seesaw games, but football too.

The Packers need to keep up the urgency through the 4th quarter.

One thing I wonder about is if this trend is really because the team can't adjust.

Tell me if you think this makes sense: When you're consistently effective in the 1st half, and you're ahead most of the time, you're at a disadvantage as far as adjustment goes. Because what you're doing is working, and you don't know how the other team will shift in the 2nd half. So there's no incentive to change your gameplan, nor is there a compass to indicate how you should do so.

 

[El Guapo]

That's the chess game. A smart coach would be looking ahead though. I definitely am in the camp of not fixing what ain't broken. However, that doesn't mean that you don't have a plan in place. I would ride a successful Game Plan A into the second half, but develop Game Plans B and C during halftime (hopefully calling up game plans that were developed during the week) so that they were ready to deploy at any point in the second half. Good coaches are thinking several moves ahead.