Playoff Clarification and Updated Picture

[PackerChick]

It would be a shock to our systems if the Packers actually snuck in the playoffs. Maybe it might happen.

 

[Title Town USA]

620 WTMJ How packers make playoffs article

i think this sums it up. packers need to win out, have giants lost out, have falcons lose once, have rams lose once, and have seahawks clinch nfc west divison title.

 

[PackFanInSC]

divisional record will never come into play with a three way tie between the packers, falcons, and giants. The first tie-breaker is to make it only one team per division, and all those teams are already from all separate divisions. next is head-2-head sweep, which is not possible because the packers haven't played them. next is conference record, which eliminates atlanta, and leaves the giants and packers tied, so it reverts back to the 2-club wild car tie-breaker. first is head to head which isn't possible. next is conference record, which is tied, next is common games, but they don't have the minimum number of 4 games, so it is not possible to use. next is strength of victory which the giants own over the packers. Packers can't win the tie-breaker over the giants. they need them to lose out.

It does not change the premise that the Packers cannot win the tie-breaker with the Giants but they do have the minimum 4 common opponents. The Packers lost to the Bears, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks and ill hopefully beat the Bears in Week 17. The Giants beat the Eagles, lost to Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, and hopefully will lose to the Saints. The tiebreaker goes by W/L percentage since some teams will play the common opponents more than once -- as in this case where the Giants play the Eagles twice and the Packers play Chicago twice. So -- both teams are (or hopefully will be) 1 - 5 in common games or .200. Should the Giants beat the Saints, the Packers are done because the Giants would then be 2 - 4 (.400) in common games.

One ray of hope rests in the fact that the Giants only win of the past 6 games came over the Panthers -- who are starting Chris Weinke at QB, who is second all time in consecutive losses as a starter with 17 -- dating back to 9/9/01. The dark side of that is that Atlanta plays Carolina next.

If the Giants lose to New Orleans and get upset by Washington, our season rests squarely in the hands of the Eagles. If they beat Dallas on Christmas Day, they take the lead in the division due to having beaten them twice. But, to keep the division title, they will not be able to rest everyone on the final game against ATL because Dallas will be playing Detroit and should win. But, should the Eagles lose to Dallas, they may pull their players against ATL -- especially if they have already clinched the wildcard berth by Giants dropping out.


All of this assuming that WE take care of our own business and win out. Oh, to have that Buffalo game back!!

 

[Packersfan43084]

divisional record will never come into play with a three way tie between the packers, falcons, and giants. The first tie-breaker is to make it only one team per division, and all those teams are already from all separate divisions. next is head-2-head sweep, which is not possible because the packers haven't played them. next is conference record, which eliminates atlanta, and leaves the giants and packers tied, so it reverts back to the 2-club wild car tie-breaker. first is head to head which isn't possible. next is conference record, which is tied, next is common games, but they don't have the minimum number of 4 games, so it is not possible to use. next is strength of victory which the giants own over the packers. Packers can't win the tie-breaker over the giants. they need them to lose out.

It does not change the premise that the Packers cannot win the tie-breaker with the Giants but they do have the minimum 4 common opponents. The Packers lost to the Bears, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks and ill hopefully beat the Bears in Week 17. The Giants beat the Eagles, lost to Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, and hopefully will lose to the Saints. The tiebreaker goes by W/L percentage since some teams will play the common opponents more than once -- as in this case where the Giants play the Eagles twice and the Packers play Chicago twice. So -- both teams are (or hopefully will be) 1 - 5 in common games or .200. Should the Giants beat the Saints, the Packers are done because the Giants would then be 2 - 4 (.400) in common games.

One ray of hope rests in the fact that the Giants only win of the past 6 games came over the Panthers -- who are starting Chris Weinke at QB, who is second all time in consecutive losses as a starter with 17 -- dating back to 9/9/01. The dark side of that is that Atlanta plays Carolina next.

If the Giants lose to New Orleans and get upset by Washington, our season rests squarely in the hands of the Eagles. If they beat Dallas on Christmas Day, they take the lead in the division due to having beaten them twice. But, to keep the division title, they will not be able to rest everyone on the final game against ATL because Dallas will be playing Detroit and should win. But, should the Eagles lose to Dallas, they may pull their players against ATL -- especially if they have already clinched the wildcard berth by Giants dropping out.

All of this assuming that WE take care of our own business and win out. Oh, to have that Buffalo game back!!

Don't see that happening as they'll need to play to win to remain at the #5 seed.

 

[William]

Did anyone really think a thread like this would be around at the beginning of the year?
The 2006 Packers are not the dominating Packer teams of the mid-late 90's, but look around the NFC this year, get beyond the division leaders and all you have is a bunch of mediocre 6-8, 7-7, teams who are wondering whether they can win the last two weeks and make the play-offs.
So why not The 2006 Packers? They have gone through growing pains this year, and maybe just maybe they will be the team who runs the table and goes into the play-offs with nothing to lose.

Giants lose the next 2
Falcons lose the next two
49r's split
Rams split
Packer win out and are the #6 seed.


Just the experience of playing in a play-off game, win or lose would do wonders for this team as it grows.

The Rams and 49ers don not factor in. We have the tie-breaker over them.

Rams have tiebreaker over Green Bay: see "620 WTMJ How packers make playoffs" article above

 

[Title Town USA]

divisional record will never come into play with a three way tie between the packers, falcons, and giants. The first tie-breaker is to make it only one team per division, and all those teams are already from all separate divisions. next is head-2-head sweep, which is not possible because the packers haven't played them. next is conference record, which eliminates atlanta, and leaves the giants and packers tied, so it reverts back to the 2-club wild car tie-breaker. first is head to head which isn't possible. next is conference record, which is tied, next is common games, but they don't have the minimum number of 4 games, so it is not possible to use. next is strength of victory which the giants own over the packers. Packers can't win the tie-breaker over the giants. they need them to lose out.

It does not change the premise that the Packers cannot win the tie-breaker with the Giants but they do have the minimum 4 common opponents. The Packers lost to the Bears, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks and ill hopefully beat the Bears in Week 17. The Giants beat the Eagles, lost to Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, and hopefully will lose to the Saints. The tiebreaker goes by W/L percentage since some teams will play the common opponents more than once -- as in this case where the Giants play the Eagles twice and the Packers play Chicago twice. So -- both teams are (or hopefully will be) 1 - 5 in common games or .200. Should the Giants beat the Saints, the Packers are done because the Giants would then be 2 - 4 (.400) in common games.

One ray of hope rests in the fact that the Giants only win of the past 6 games came over the Panthers -- who are starting Chris Weinke at QB, who is second all time in consecutive losses as a starter with 17 -- dating back to 9/9/01. The dark side of that is that Atlanta plays Carolina next.

If the Giants lose to New Orleans and get upset by Washington, our season rests squarely in the hands of the Eagles. If they beat Dallas on Christmas Day, they take the lead in the division due to having beaten them twice. But, to keep the division title, they will not be able to rest everyone on the final game against ATL because Dallas will be playing Detroit and should win. But, should the Eagles lose to Dallas, they may pull their players against ATL -- especially if they have already clinched the wildcard berth by Giants dropping out.


All of this assuming that WE take care of our own business and win out. Oh, to have that Buffalo game back!!

but can a divisional opponent be included in common games? The packers play the bears twice, the giants once, so it would be impossible to break the tie that way.

 

[Zero2Cool]

but can a divisional opponent be included in common games? The packers play the bears twice, the giants once, so it would be impossible to break the tie that way.

The bears can't be tied with the packers for the season ending record.

I don't think I understand what ya saying


Two Clubs

• 1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

• 1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Okay, I think I get what you're saying. The common games is based on percentage so I think it does work. Say this happened....
Packers beat the bears once, then lost. record .500
Packers beat the giants once. record 1.000

Its off percentage, not a weighted percentage.


Does that help? Or am I missing the point?

 

[robfuhr]

If the season ends this way

Philadelphia 8-8
NY Giants 8-8
Green Bay 8-8
Atlanta 8-8
San Francisco 8-8
St Louis 8-8

The way I read the tie breakers...the divisions with two teams in the race would eliminate one team before they proceed to interdivisional tiebreakers.

In this scenario, the two Wildcard teams would be Green Bay and whoever is not eliminated from the NFC East....

So, It seems, the Packers need either New York Giants to Lose two games or the Philadelphia Eagles to Lose 2 games and the Giants lose at least 1 game.

But the Packers need to win tonight and next week....Right now, the Pack is down 7-6