Packers tried to trade for Jonathan Taylor

[mradtke66]

The "problem" with Jones, is that the Packers will find themselves with $12.348M of dead cap for Jones next year. So sure, they can keep hoping that Jones will play for a team friendly price, but if he is still performing like a top 10 RB, he's not going to pay for peanuts. So let's say he agrees to sign a 4 year, $10M/season, with $20M guaranteed. The Packers will have him on the books with a dead cap hit of $32.348M, over 4 years. Throw in the non-guaranteed portion of the Contract and now you need to figure out a way to account for $52.348M over 4 years ($13.087M/year).

Seems more likely that we let him play out his contract this year. He doesn't have the carries, but he's getting up there for a RB. I can't image they'd offer him another 4 year deal.

 

[Poppa San]

There’s only a handful of teams that can boast a substantially better run block grade. ... We have 2 players returning from last year that ranked in the top 8 in the NFL. I think it’s an area we are severely underestimated.

I think the run grade was inflated somewhat by who was behind center, the passing threat he was, and his ability to switch up plays to get out of bad situations. We'll see this year if those grades are warranted.

He's a better 2-down ball carrier, but Jones is the more complete RB. I'm not sending JT out wide in motion, I'm not trusting JT to protect anyone.

Sounds like a proven better version of Emanuel Wilson. JT also has ball security problems.

 

[OldSchool101]

.

I think the run grade was inflated somewhat by who was behind center, the passing threat he was, and his ability to switch up plays to get out of bad situations. We'll see this year if those grades are warranted.

No question that the Run and Pass are directly interrelated. The success or failure of one feeds off the other
(and vice versa)
On the other spectrum, I think too much weight is put on this idea that our OL only being good because of Rodgers. I think that’s mostly fear derived, just my opinion.
Matter of fact I’d be shocked if we drop outside that top 10 OL overall. It’s more about the culture and emphasis on that area that’s made us consistent. Rodgers helped some, but he didn’t make that OL. Good player acquisition, good development, sound player evaluation and a strategic ability in season to season planning gets the vast majority of credit.

 

[Poppa San]

Just curious. How did NE's OL rate after TB12 went to Tampa and did the Buc's O-line get better as a result?

 

[OldSchool101]

Just curious. How did NE's OL rate after TB12 went to Tampa and did the Buc's O-line get better as a result?

Good question. I can only go off statistical because I didn’t watch every game for the “eye test”

2019 Tampa under Brady (mostly)

Passing 4153 yards
25TD 9INT
88.2 Passer rating
Sacked 28 times
Run 1,703 yards at 3.8 per

2020 under Cam Newton (mostly)

Passing 2,890
12TD 14INT
81.1 Passer rating
sacked 37 times
Run 2,346 at 4.7 per

Blocking didn’t seem to be an issue for the Patriots RB group in 2020 with a new QB under Center. You would think there would be a regression with Cam Newton under center. The Patriots actually got better in the Run game. I’m maybe even thinking Jordan will surpass those Cam Newton passing numbers as I gave him my guess closer to

3,500
22 TD 13 INT
90.6 passer
(Est)

 

[Schultz]

I may be wrong but I believe he was looking for NEs OL pass & run blocking grades in TBs last year there compared to the following year. Then I also believe he was wondering what TBs OL pass & run blocking grades were the year prior to TB coming over compared to his 1st year there. If only there was someone who had the time and even seemed to enjoy pulling up stats like this. I know I don't have the time. Oh well.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Reports coming out that both the Packers and Dolphins were willing to make Taylor one of the highest paid running backs on the league…I’m convinced Gute’s inability to understand the repaceability of running backs in this league and how much more important the passing game is than the running game are his biggest weaknesses.

 

[Spanky]

Reports coming out that both the Packers and Dolphins were willing to make Taylor one of the highest paid running backs on the league…

That smells like bull excrement coming from Taylor's agent.

 

[Poppa San]

Packer's scout : "What do you want for Taylor?"
Indy : "A 1st. You know he wants a new contract right?"
Packer's scout : "Thanks. Yes, we had heard that"

Indy to Agent : "We weren't able to strike a deal. Miami and GB were the only ones to call"
Agent : "They know about the contract?"
Indy : "We mentioned it"

Agent : "PACKERS CALLED AND WOULD GIVE A NEW CONTRACT!"

Based on your scenario the agent is correct. Why would Packers give a draft pick or player for a one year rental, especially as a rebuilding team.

 

[gopkrs]

I assume you watch the other 31 teams as well?

Well, I do watch other games. But I only care how The Pack performs. I don't care if someone out there thinks they perform admirably compared to the rest of the league, if when I watch, I think they should do better or at least play to the strengths they have. I can see when we have weaknesses or strengths w/o having to see what all the other teams have. Again, I think we will have a good running game but a strength is not smashing it up the middle when they know that's what's coming. And it isn't to try to establish the run when that is not working. I think we will be able to mix it up.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'd bet this was not much more than tire kicking by Gutey. Assuming the report is actually true.

Agree. Why would the Packers want to pick up Ann unhappy RB who wants more money than he's ever gonna get? I think A. Jones is great, but he was overpaid. It's the nature of the position.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The "problem" with Jones, is that the Packers will find themselves with $12.348M of dead cap for Jones next year. So sure, they can keep hoping that Jones will play for a team friendly price, but if he is still performing like a top 10 RB, he's not going to pay for peanuts. So let's say he agrees to sign a 4 year, $10M/season, with $20M guaranteed. The Packers will have him on the books with a dead cap hit of $32.348M, over 4 years. Throw in the non-guaranteed portion of the Contract and now you need to figure out a way to account for $52.348M over 4 years ($13.087M/year).

Good analysis. And given the recent and apparently league-wide devaluation of the RB position, a team would be nutz to make this kind of deal.

What did Calvin Cook get in NY? I think it was $8 or $9 mil/year. And he's relatively young.

I don't have any stats, but it seems like a lot of very good RBs can be found in rounds 4 and 5 of the draft. I think that's where Jones was picked. Certainly it helps if they can also catch the ball.

Anyway this talk of Taylor and the Packers is just that - talk.

 

[AmishMafia]

Good question. I can only go off statistical because I didn’t watch every game for the “eye test”

2019 Tampa under Brady (mostly)

Passing 4153 yards
25TD 9INT
88.2 Passer rating
Sacked 28 times
Run 1,703 yards at 3.8 per

2020 under Cam Newton (mostly)

Passing 2,890
12TD 14INT
81.1 Passer rating
sacked 37 times
Run 2,346 at 4.7 per

Blocking didn’t seem to be an issue for the Patriots RB group in 2020 with a new QB under Center. You would think there would be a regression with Cam Newton under center. The Patriots actually got better in the Run game. I’m maybe even thinking Jordan will surpass those Cam Newton passing numbers as I gave him my guess closer to

3,500
22 TD 13 INT
90.6 passer
(Est)

The improvement in run stats can be attributed to just scrambles with Cam adding 592 yds. A bunch more than Brady's 34 yds the year before.

 

[OldSchool101]

The improvement in run stats can be attributed to just scrambles with Cam adding 592 yds. A bunch more than Brady's 34 yds the year before.

I’m glad you brought that up. I went and looked and Cam had 4.3 yards per rush. The team as a whole had 4.7 per. While that’s still respectable for a QB, Cam actually lowered the 2020 Patriots RB group average. They were closer to 5.0 per carry as a group. That’s up from 3.7 under Tom Brady. That tells me that Tom Brady did not elevate the run game in 2019 by being a “Formidable Passing Presence” which is the argument I’ve seen several making in here. Now I’m sure we can find fluctuations post HOF RB somewhere but I was asked a specific 2 part question of how the Pats O line held up post Brady. I answered the first part someone else can take the time to do the homework I’m tired of being harassed (sarcasm) for giving half the answer I dealt with that in school for turning in half off my book reports.

Cam Newton added rushing yards but did NOT improve the RB sector in per carry, which is odd that would make sense because he’s known to be a runner. He had quite a few rushing TD’s though but the main point is that his OL did just fine blocking in run game overall and without Brady under Center

 

[Schultz]

I’m glad you brought that up. I went and looked and Cam had 4.3 yards per rush. The team as a whole had 4.7 per. While that’s still respectable for a QB, Cam actually lowered the 2020 Patriots RB group average. They were closer to 5.0 per carry as a group. That’s up from 3.7 under Tom Brady. That tells me that Tom Brady did not elevate the run game in 2019 by being a “Formidable Passing Presence” which is the argument I’ve seen several making in here. Now I’m sure we can find fluctuations post HOF RB somewhere but I was asked a specific 2 part question of how the Pats O line held up post Brady. I answered the first part someone else can take the time to do the homework I’m tired of being harassed for giving half the answer.

Cam Newton did NOT improve the RB sector in per carry, which is odd that would make sense because he’s known to be a runner. He had quite a few rushing TD’s though.

I feel ya. Getting harassed for doing some solid homework, whether it is half, full or somewhere in the middle has to wear on a poster. IMO. OH well.

 

[milani]

Agree. Why would the Packers want to pick up Ann unhappy RB who wants more money than he's ever gonna get? I think A. Jones is great, but he was overpaid. It's the nature of the position.

Even though Jones may become unaffordable next season we need depth in other positions probably a lot more. If you want to build for 2024 look at your weakest link now.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Even though Jones may become unaffordable next season we need depth in other positions probably a lot more. If you want to build for 2024 look at your weakest link now.

That's a good point. It's a helluva lot harder to find a starting OT than a starting RB. Just my opinion. The RB position has been devalued for a number of reasons. And I think Gluten has done a good job of looking to the future while trying to field a competitive team this year.

 

[milani]

That's a good point. It's a helluva lot harder to find a starting OT than a starting RB. Just my opinion. The RB position has been devalued for a number of reasons. And I think Gluten has done a good job of looking to the future while trying to field a competitive team this year.

Teams still throw the ball a lot. And backs do not always figure in the offense to the extent that they did in the by gone days. It is a wonder how an old FB or RB survived as long as they did with all the pounding and plays they absorbed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Teams still throw the ball a lot. And backs do not always figure in the offense to the extent that they did in the by gone days. It is a wonder how an old FB or RB survived as long as they did with all the pounding and plays they absorbed.

Yeah what ever happened to the FB? On a lot of teams, I think that position has become part of a TE's responsibility. And teams are throwing more.

 

[OldSchool101]

I feel ya. Getting harassed for doing some solid homework, whether it is half, full or somewhere in the middle has to wear on a poster. IMO. OH well.

Its ok. I was just being facetious.
I liken this to repeatedly going back to an abusive relationship because I like the companionship.

 

[Schultz]

I hear what people are saying about RBs. One of the beefs with recent Packer teams was great regular season and falling short in the playoffs. I still kinda believe in that old addage - A running game and Defense win in the playoffs. IMO.

 

[gopkrs]

I remember when Dorsey Levens was out for quite a while and he returned in a playoff game against the 49ers. I saw how much of a difference a really good RB makes. That's why I take it with a grain of salt when someone says we can just get a RB in the 4th round. Yes, and we can just get a QB there also. We were very fortunate with Jones imho.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I hear what people are saying about RBs. One of the beefs with recent Packer teams was great regular season and falling short in the playoffs. I still kinda believe in that old addage - A running game and Defense win in the playoffs. IMO.

It sure helps in cold weather.

 

[OldSchool101]

I hear what people are saying about RBs. One of the beefs with recent Packer teams was great regular season and falling short in the playoffs. I still kinda believe in that old addage - A running game and Defense win in the playoffs. IMO.

That’s exactly what I think. Especially in-climate weather. The Passing game is more dynamic as it draws a higher net average yards per attempt. But the Running game gains prominence later in the season as the stadiums are affected by cold and wind. Also some playoff teams don’t have Defenses built to defend the running game (see the 2022 Packers). They play competitive in regular season but then get smothered against teams with good running games. Balance is a big benefit and playing to your opponents weaknesses.

 

[milani]

That’s exactly what I think. Especially in-climate weather. The Passing game is more dynamic as it draws a higher net average yards per attempt. But the Running game gains prominence later in the season as the stadiums are affected by cold and wind. Also some playoff teams don’t have Defenses built to defend the running game (see the 2022 Packers). They play competitive in regular season but then get smothered against teams with good running games. Balance is a big benefit and playing to your opponents weaknesses.

That definitely stands out. Who did we hear say, It is a passing league and We play pass first. In our last 3 playoff losses the opposition was able to run the ball down the stretch. Our last SB team struggled to run the ball after Ryan Grant went down but when James Starks came on the roster it was key in the post season despite the Rodgers' passing.