You must be logged in to see this image or video!
If he can do anything close to what he did the last 2 yrs this will be a great signing
PFF's PBE formula raises some interesting questions.
1. For example, the difference between Evans' 97.46% vs. Yanda's 98.35% seems scant, less than 1 percentage point, yet Evans surrendered nearly double the number of pressures. Seems off, right?
However the 20 pressure difference amounts to a bit over 1 play per game which, sacks aside, would been of no consequence in many cases. QBs on average complete around half their passes when hurried, give or take, so half the hurries are of little consequence, though one would expect INTs to be slightly elevated.
Though we're only talking pass blocking here, this begs the question, does Evans surrendering twice as many pressures justify the difference between what will be his relatively modest salary vs. Yanda's 4 year / $32 million contract?
This might explain why Thompson's approach in (1) not drafting OGs in upper rounds, (2) drafting college OTs in middle rounds who don't project well to NFL OT but with sufficient athleticism to pass block at OG, (3) not paying Sitton and Lang and (4) signing a guy like Evans. Or to take another example, how much difference did you see between the 2014 version of Sitton and Taylor last season in terms of special blocks or blown blocks making a play or wrecking a play? Fess up now. Very little. Sitton was a better second level run blocker and that's about it.
2. So, the above assumes PFF's PBE accurately reflects relative performance. I do have some issues with it relating to maintaining the health of your QB and the affect on maintaining possession.
Is 1.00 sack really worth only 0.75 hits? In both cases the QB is at risk, though more at risk with a sack. Some sacks involve getting wrapped up and driven to the ground. That's true of some hits, but not often because of the risk of a flag. Hits are typically "knock downs". Further, a hit does not result in minus yards as with sacks which compromises possession. You only get 10 or 12 possessions per game, some of no consequence at the end of the half or the game. It's why turnovers are so highly valued. I consider a sack to be worth about 1/2 of a turnover with the change of possession potential as a consequence of lost yards. It's why edge rusher contracts roughly equate to $1 million per sack. How many hits have zero consequence with the pass completed anyway? Half? A bit less?
As for turnover affects, sacks can results in fumbles. Hits can result in INTs. Let's call it a wash.
Next, is a hit really equal to a hurry as in this formula? How could it be. A hit by definition is a hurry with plus factors: (1) there's the QB injury potential and (2) a hit implies more "hurry" than a mere hurry as the defender is in closer proximity to the QB at the time of the throw.
Call me cynical, but there may be an element of "political correctness" in equating hits with hurries. Perhaps PFF does not want to acknowledge the contribution toward winning in knocking a QB wobbly or out of the game. Anybody who watched Cam Newton getting the holy h*ll beat out of him from "hits" in those early games last season and what ensued with Newton and Carolina, cannot deny the affect. While I consider Newton a showboat an "brand builder" on the field who lost his team, I believe he had a legit beef with the officiating in going to the commissioner. But that's neither here nor there for this discussion. He got hit; it affected his play in a way hurries would not.
Here's how I'd alter the relative values of the plays, roughly speaking, because it would take a deep dive into the stats to be more precise:
Sack 1.0
Hit 0.60
Hurry 0.35
3. There are numerous other factors that come into play that may not or cannot be reflected in these stats.
- What are the guys like on either side who compromise a players ability to limit pressures? Offensive line play is largely an ensemble performance.
- Is it a quick throw or downfield passing game?
- How long does the QB hold the ball?
- Does PFF give the blocker a pass at a certain point? 2.5 seconds? 3.0 seconds? Lang didn't seem to think so.
