Packers releasing Jimmy Graham tomorrow

[Heyjoe4]

I think if Graham doesn't hang em' up, that is about the number you will see a team willing to sign him for. My "already retired" comment was a bit tongue in cheek, we did get effort and some production from Graham, but as most know, not anywhere near what we paid for. That might be on the Packers for signing him for that amount, more than it should be put on Jimmy for not playing up to it.

Good point. Paying $30 mil (well, really $28 mil)was a bit much. That said, he did well in Seattle before we got him. Who knew?

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Packers could sign a marquee free agent at both inside linebacker and tight end this offseason by backloading those contracts. With Rodgers getting up their in age it might be time for Gutekunst to kind of mortgage the future to win now.

Hey cap, what does backloading a contract mean? I didn’t think Gluten had cap room for a marquee TE AND ILB in FA. Can you enlighten me? Thanks.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think if Graham doesn't hang em' up, that is about the number you will see a team willing to sign him for. My "already retired" comment was a bit tongue in cheek, we did get effort and some production from Graham, but as most know, not anywhere near what we paid for. That might be on the Packers for signing him for that amount, more than it should be put on Jimmy for not playing up to it.

I’m not so sure Poker. If he plays, I’m thinking it’s in the $2 mil to $3 mil range. And that’s still a lot (and a roster spot) for a guy who seems to be in major-league decline.

 

[Heyjoe4]

They don't need to be especially backloaded if those are the only things of particular note that they do.

When you start considering all of the other moving parts of lesser or greater note then it becomes an issue. Passing on Bulaga, letting Clark play on the 5th. year option, not extending any of next years free agents would be the larger issues. Crosby-like or lesser signings start to add up.

Anyway, I doubt they're going go spring for a high ticket ILB, Littleton or anybody else. Bringing in Kirksey for a look see I would take as a tell, Gutekunst looking for a moneyball move in a player unfairly discounted by his injury history. I imagine his medicals will be the main focus of the evaluation given his hamstring (2018) and seaon ending pectoral (2019) injuries. They may not like what they see in Kirksey when they get down to brass tacks, but it is an indication of where they would prefer to go, a vet to call the signals paired with a rookie without spending much cap (but perhaps a Day 1 or 2 pick) at the position.

Going all-in for one season rarely works out. Acting blind to what comes next amounts to a wing and prayer. And when it does not work out there is high price to pay.

Either you have to rebuild (last year's FA haul) or you have a winning core you are looking to compliment, but manufacturing a winner by spending to the hilt in free agency with backloaded contracts or trading away a bunch of future high picks for stars is a mugs game. The Packers are in a pretty good place with big strides forward last season.

A lot depends on what the revenue projections are for 2021 and beyond. If a big cap jump is expected staring next year with the CBA and LA and Las Vegas stadium completions, something about which we have little to no visibility, it could look like all-in when in fact it is not until we get further down the road.

I think if they could squeeze in Littleton and Cooper it would make a big difference. And to Cap’s point, and with Rodgers not getting any better (and an otherwise solid team), this might be the year to go for it. From what I can tell, there’s gonna be a lot of our own FA to sign next year, meaning not much room for FAs. I think this is the year to go for it.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don't think that's very fair. I didn't detect any lack of effort.

Age was a factor. I would also not underestimate how his elite performance in New Orleans was the happy accident of a certain skill set meeting a system and a quarterback that played to strengths and away from weaknesses.

Well he played well in Seattle.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Packers could sign a marquee free agent at both inside linebacker and tight end this offseason by backloading those contracts. With Rodgers getting up their in age it might be time for Gutekunst to kind of mortgage the future to win now.

I do agree with mortgaging the future NOW. Not a lot of money for other than our own FAs next year. Might as well push all the chips to the middle.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It’s too bad he didn’t live up to $10M type expectations. I don’t really think we ever got more than a $5M production TE with Graham. He seemed like a fish out of water for much of his stay. It also didn’t help we changed Offensive schemes mid stream.

Nothing personal as I wish him the best wherever he lands. I’m just really glad it’s not here. I couldn’t be more pleased while losing a starting TE

I think even $5 mil is generous. He never would have accepted that though. I’m just glad he’s gone. If they can get Cooper, and Sternberger ups his game (assuming he’ll play more), and keep Lewis for in-line blocking in multiple TE sets, the TE group starts to look good. A lot of “ifs” in there, I know.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah it’s like selling an under performing stock. The day after you sell it it goes up by 25%......

oh man, this is not the time to be talking about stocks! Argggggg....been a bad 2 weeks!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’m not so sure Poker. If he plays, I’m thinking it’s in the $2 mil to $3 mil range. And that’s still a lot (and a roster spot) for a guy who seems to be in major-league decline.

While I agree that Jimmy is not anywhere near the $10M/year, I think he will command more than $2-3. Hell, I would probably want the Packers to sign him for that. He finished 18th in the NFL of TE's in total yds., while being only the 29th highest in TE targets. So he can still play, he just isn't worth more than $5M/year. Also, I think he only had 3 charged drops in 16+ games.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think if they could squeeze in Littleton and Cooper it would make a big difference. And to Cap’s point, and with Rodgers not getting any better (and an otherwise solid team), this might be the year to go for it. From what I can tell, there’s gonna be a lot of our own FA to sign next year, meaning not much room for FAs. I think this is the year to go for it.

If I was of the opinion that Rodgers is in a slow slide into mediocrity or worse I might agree with you. I do not believe he is so I can't agree with the rest. I happen to believe he played a lot better last season than the consensus or fanatasy stats would have it, very good actually.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well he played well in Seattle.

There was obvious slippage in Seattle from his peak productivity. In his last season with Seattle, 10 TDs not withstanding, the 59.4% catch rate while the 9.1 yards per catch indicated a lot of short throws should have been a red flag. Regardless, paying him like he was the player from 5 years prior was a mistake. I didn't like it when he was signed and nothing changed my mind after the fact.

 

[tynimiller]

Hooper y'all. Hooper not Cooper.

 

[Mondio]

Hooper y'all. Hooper not Cooper.

Hooper, Cooper, tomato, potato

 

[Heyjoe4]

If I was of the opinion that Rodgers is in a slow slide into mediocrity or worse I might agree with you. I do not believe he is so I can't agree with there rest. I happen to believe he played a lot better last season than the consensus or fanatasy stats would have it, very good actually.

Yeah now that I think about it I agree with you. He put up good numbers (again) in spite of a weak WR group. Hopefully he gets some help this year and we’ll see 35 TDs or so, maybe more.

 

[Heyjoe4]

There was obvious slippage in Seattle from his peak productivity. In his last season with Seattle, 10 TDs not withstanding, the 59.4% catch rate while the 9.1 yards per catch indicated a lot of short throws should have been a red flag. Regardless, paying him like he was the player from 5 years prior was a mistake. I didn't like it when he was signed and nothing changed my mind after the fact.

Agreed. And I didn’t know his catch rate was a lousy 69%, so thanks for the stat.

 

[Heyjoe4]

oh man, this is not the time to be talking about stocks! Argggggg....been a bad 2 weeks!

Don’t touch your face. Don’t touch your investments assuming you’ve got good diversification. This too shall pass. (Sorry, I’m off topic.)

 

[HardRightEdge]

Agreed. And I didn’t know his catch rate was a lousy 69%, so thanks for the stat.

59%, not 69%.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

at 5 million per Graham would have been a nice signing at 10+ per, not so much.

Graham would still have been overpaid at $5 million per season.

Going all-in for one season rarely works out. Acting blind to what comes next amounts to a wing and prayer. And when it does not work out there is high price to pay.

Either you have to rebuild (last year's FA haul) or you have a winning core you are looking to compliment, but manufacturing a winner by spending to the hilt in free agency with backloaded contracts or trading away a bunch of future high picks for stars is a mugs game. The Packers are in a pretty good place with big strides forward last season.

Just for the record, I don't want the Packers to go all-in for the 2020 season but wouldn't mind Gutekunst to sign some players to backloaded contracts to be capable of addressing another position in need of an upgrade for this year.

Good point. Paying $30 mil (well, really $28 mil)was a bit much.

Graham earned a total of $22 million over the two years in Green Bay.

Hey cap, what does backloading a contract mean? I didn’t think Gluten had cap room for a marquee TE AND ILB in FA. Can you enlighten me? Thanks.

NFL teams can backload a contract by signing a free agent to a deal including a significant signing bonus (the cap hit will be prorated over the entire length of the contact) while paying only a low base salary early during the deal. That results in the cap hit being lower in the first and possibly second year of the deal.

You have to be aware that it will drastically increase later though. In addition the prorated portion would result in a significant amount of dead money counting against the cap if that player is released or traded before the contract expires.

I do agree with mortgaging the future NOW.

The Packers shouldn't completely mortgage the future by going all-in this offseason but take more risks than in the past with Rodgers getting up there in age.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Just for the record, I don't want the Packers to go all-in for the 2020 season but wouldn't mind Gutekunst to sign some players to backloaded contracts to be capable of addressing another position in need of an upgrade for this year.

The Packers have $147 mil in cap committed under current contracts for 2021. That's for only 28 players, excluding Bulaga, Tramon Williams, Martinez, Bakhtiari, Jones, Clark, Linsley, King or Jamaal Williams or their replacements.

I could go on at length about what "all in" might or might not look like besides spending up to the cap, but at this point it is all over but the cryin'. In particular, we're flying blind with respect to what the cap number will be next year; we've been accustomed to $10 - $12 million bumps per year but have little visibility what it will be next year with the CBA. Stadium completions look like a significant add to the revenue pool against which the player share is drawn.

We should get the outcome of the CBA vote any time now with voting having closed at midnight yesterday. Teams can begin negotiating with free agents on Monday. News of teams coming to terms with players starts leaking out after that with the official signing period beginning Wednesday.

We'll find out soon enough where Packers 2020 are heading.

I would say this. The Packers are coming off a 13-3 season. There's only one very good player in Bulaga who needs to be re-signed or replaced. There are not many teams in this good of shape.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I would say for all the flack he got - - and yes it was deserved sometimes--I still will say thank you to him for helping us beat Seattle. Love him or hate him, you do gotta give him credit for that.

But I definitely think it's time to see what others like Sternberger can do now when given opportunities.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

oh man, this is not the time to be talking about stocks! Argggggg....been a bad 2 weeks!

Sure it is. Buy the dips.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sure it is. Buy the dips.

Considering that 7 out of the last 10 days of the market were all BIG dips with 2 Tuesdays and 1 Friday of big jumps, go ahead, jump in there and pick the lowest point to buy and you will be rich. Good luck my friend!

 

[lambeaulambo]

In parting, I will say that Graham showed a little spark in the playoffs this year which I admired, but he is clearly a shell of what he once was - a hall of famer? It'll be close. He didn't do much for the green and gold, but hey, here is to a once great player.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers are coming off a 13-3 season. There's only one very good player in Bulaga who needs to be re-signed or replaced. There are not many teams in this good of shape.

Agreed, but the Packers improving at some positions in need of an upgrade would significantly increase their chances of winning the Super Bowl in 2020.

In parting, I will say that Graham showed a little spark in the playoffs this year which I admired, but he is clearly a shell of what he once was - a hall of famer?

I don't think Graham will ever make it to Canton.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

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