Packers and Mason Crosby agree to 4 year deal.

[CashInFist]

But he's not mediocre, just average.

This is my whole point. We are SO CLOSE to winning a Super Bowl. The very last thing we need, is a crappy kicker. It's that simple, imo.

 

[C-Lee]

I used to hate on Crosby but I think he's one of the most reliable kickers in the league now. I'm glad we have him for 4 more years.

 

[adambr2]

This is my whole point. We are SO CLOSE to winning a Super Bowl. The very last thing we need, is a crappy kicker. It's that simple, imo.

Except as some of us have shown, veteran kickers are equally capable of being crappy kickers. Crosby himself has been the worst kicker in football one year. Janikowski and Matt Bryant were the second and third worst kickers in the NFL last year.

Some people have it stuck in their heads that 'young kicker = higher risk of a dud year' and I think that's been well documented to be false.

 

[adambr2]

I used to hate on Crosby but I think he's one of the most reliable kickers in the league now.

Except once again, the stats don't agree with that.

 

[Mondio]

anybody can miss kicks, go thru a bad spell, or get hot at the right time. MOST kickers in the mid 80's range that have been doing it for any amount of time are in that 1.5-3.5 range. Mason is costing us 2.5 on the cap. It's hardly a travesty. He provides stability. Sure we could go with whomever, whenever and hope they kick ok, but stable, competent kickers aren't just falling out of trees. Plenty of teams go thru kicking woes every single year to act like it's as easy as paying some guy 500K and being guaranteed 85+% accuracy along with all the other aspects of the kicking game the coaches are looking for. We could be the saints and going on 10 kickers in 10 years. Like i said before, the very little extra we've paid for stability is nothing in the long run if he maintains his current production.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

Considering it being tough to kick in Green Bay, kickers for road teams have made a combined 84.2% of all FGs at Lambeau Field since 2007 while Crosby has made only 79.6% while being used to the conditions.

Why would you go all the way back to 9 years ago to determine a player's current worth? That makes no sense at all. Players improve or degrade over time. Rookies take time to develop their game. In the last 3 years, he has kicked 85.6%. Ted Thompson doesn't throw away money. If the argument is that either Ted Thompson is over-valuing his kicker or you are under-valuing him, I'm going with the latter.

 

[TJV]

Since it's a done deal, we're in 'spilt milk' territory, but:

Trust the process.

So never question or criticize Thompson or the front office? I hope you didn’t mean that but that is a logical interpretation of your post.

...but you can bet your bottom dollar that the deal is structured in a way that benefits the Packers more than Crosby.

Don't bet your top, bottom or in-between dollar on that. If the cap hit is $2.4M, Crosby will collect $6.15M – almost 40% of the contract – this season. Unless the rest of the comp is heavily back-loaded to 2019 it doesn’t benefit the Packers more than Crosby.

Ted Thompson doesn't throw away money.

LarrysCrookedFinger, meet Brad Jones. Brad, tell LarrysCrookedFinger the details of your 2013 contract. And Brad, get that smug expression off of your face!

 

[Poppa San]

I've noticed TT and also MM like players they are comfortable with. Another kicker would take them out of their comfort zone. That's probably why Ted hangs on to "his" guys longer than he should. Just afraid leery of the unknown players. Would explain Hawk, Masthay, Crosby 2012, Coleman, Newhouse. They stay until they are a detriment or someone much better climbs the depth chart - typically after injury. It's why I expect Raji back and most likely no upper tier FA TE no matter how much we think it should happen. Could also explain why someone (**cough Janis cough**) languishes on the bench behind a JAG.

 

[adambr2]

Why would you go all the way back to 9 years ago to determine a player's current worth? That makes no sense at all. Players improve or degrade over time. Rookies take time to develop their game. In the last 3 years, he has kicked 85.6%. Ted Thompson doesn't throw away money. If the argument is that either Ted Thompson is over-valuing his kicker or you are under-valuing him, I'm going with the latter.

In the last 4 years he is 80.1%, in the last 2 years he is 83.6%. 3 years is nothing more than an arbitrary time frame.

Also, I'm a Ted Thompson fan, but it's not true that he's never wasted money. If he has one fault, it's a tendency to overpay for his own, and AJ Hawk and Brad Jones are exhibits A and B.

 

[adambr2]

anybody can miss kicks, go thru a bad spell, or get hot at the right time. MOST kickers in the mid 80's range that have been doing it for any amount of time are in that 1.5-3.5 range. Mason is costing us 2.5 on the cap. It's hardly a travesty. He provides stability. Sure we could go with whomever, whenever and hope they kick ok, but stable, competent kickers aren't just falling out of trees. Plenty of teams go thru kicking woes every single year to act like it's as easy as paying some guy 500K and being guaranteed 85+% accuracy along with all the other aspects of the kicking game the coaches are looking for. We could be the saints and going on 10 kickers in 10 years. Like i said before, the very little extra we've paid for stability is nothing in the long run if he maintains his current production.

Mondio, I agree with you on just about everything, I just don't on this. I think veteran kickers are a market inefficiency, and I think the stats bear that out. To me, it's like sticking with your phone company at 40 dollars a month, when you could have a VOIP line for 5 dollars a month that pretty much accomplishes what you need, simply because you know and trust your existing company.

I think stability is an illusion. We had stability with Crosby in 2012, and he was the worst kicker in football. It can happen to any of them at any point in their career.

Kickers are a new breed in modern football than they were in the 90s, and typically, the guys good enough to get to this level stick at this level. You brought up the Saints, and even a guy like Garrett Hartley who they had for 5 years, who isn't a good kicker, is STILL a 82% career kicker.
They truly do grow on trees these days. (FWIW, I believe Hartley had a cannon leg to help make up for his low accuracy. )

That said, they were wise to move on and not overpay Hartley for the mirage of stability, IMO.

 

[metallicblaze]

It's not only about consistency. You could have a guy kicking mid 80% plus and he will still get cut because of missing critical kicks. Like games winners, series clinchers, etc. There's a reason most kickers don't last long with teams even though they are probably all better then any of us will ever be.

 

[Packerlifer]

http://www.packers.com/news-and-eve...e-agency/446303a1-ca32-42a5-803e-838d48443dcb

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Mason is costing us 2.5 on the cap.

I haven't seen anyone confirming that number. Even if it's true only taking this year's cap hit into consideration with Crosby's contract is short-sighted as his cap hit would significantly increase over the length of the contract.

Why would you go all the way back to 9 years ago to determine a player's current worth? That makes no sense at all. Players improve or degrade over time. Rookies take time to develop their game. In the last 3 years, he has kicked 85.6%. Ted Thompson doesn't throw away money.

Do you realize that Crosby's FG percentage of 85.7% over the last three years only ranks 22nd in the league during that period??? The facts clearly confirm that Crosby is an average kicker at best and Thompson overpaid for him but go on and keep ignoring them.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Cap hits for Mason Crosby, $2.4 million in 2016, $3.6 million in ´17, $5.25 million in ´18 and $4.85 million in ´19.

Here´s a complete breakdown of the details of his contract:

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...million-cap-space-after-crosby-deal/81311578/

 

[adambr2]

Cap hits for Mason Crosby, $2.4 million in 2016, $3.6 million in ´17, $5.25 million in ´18 and $4.85 million in ´19.

Here´s a complete breakdown of the details of his contract:

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...million-cap-space-after-crosby-deal/81311578/

A 5.25M cap hit for an average kicker is insanity. Even if they cut him after 2017, he's a 2.5M dead cap hit which is no small matter.

 

[mradtke66]

A 5.25M cap hit for an average kicker is insanity. Even if they cut him after 2017, he's a 2.5M dead cap hit which is no small matter.

That's my gut reaction, but what's the (likely) cap projection that year?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's my gut reaction, but what's the (likely) cap projection that year?

FWIW Over the Cap predicts the salary cap to be set at $178 million for the 2018 season.

With Crosby's signing the Packers already have $94 million committed towards that year's cap for only 17 players.

 

[mradtke66]

FWIW Over the Cap predicts the salary cap to be set at $178 million for the 2018 season.

With Crosby's signing the Packers already have $94 million committed towards that year's cap for only 17 players.

So that's about 53% for those 17 players. What's our current rate? Or rather, the top 17 most expensive players we have account for what percentage of the cap?

 

[mradtke66]

Sorry, I got impatient. Right now, the top 17 players account for just under 73% of the cap. Based on http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/

That would leave me to believe we're fine for 2018.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So that's about 53% for those 17 players. What's our current rate? Or rather, the top 17 most expensive players we have account for what percentage of the cap?

Currently the top 17 account for 72.7% of the team's cap space. You have to consider that the 2018 number includes nine players still on their rookie contracts though.

 

[El Guapo]

Here are the specifics of Crosby's deal:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...-million-this-year-b99681314z1-371060791.html

Green Bay — The four-year extension Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby signed is worth $16.1 million, pays him $6.15 million in 2016 and features escalators that can raise his salary in each of the last three seasons.

Crosby's first-year salary cap number is $2.4 million, which as reported earlier this week leaves the Packers with about $19.1 million of cap space.

Crosby, 31, carries $1.25 million of prorated signing bonus as cap obligation each of the four years of the deal. If the Packers were to cut Crosby after this season, they would absorb $3.75 million onto their cap. If he was cut after the 2017 season, it would be $2.5 million and if it were after the '18 season it would be $1.25 million.

Three years ago, Packers general manager Ted Thompson probably wouldn't have paid the price he did for Crosby had his kicker been a free agent. Crosby was coming off a disastrous 2012 season, and Thompson brought in competition to see how his 2007 sixth-round pick would respond.

Crosby hit a career-low 63.6% of his field goals and appeared to have lost his confidence in '12, but he came back strong the next season and in the next three years hit 97 of 111 field goals (87.4%) and 141 of 143 extra points (98.6%) in 53 total games.

Last season he was one of only five kickers to make all his extra points from the newly instituted placement at the 15-yard line.

Crosby will be able to build on his franchise-leading total of 1,057 points. He holds the team single-season record for most points scored (141) and longest field goal (58 yards).

Here's the yearly breakdown of the deal:

2016

Signing bonus: $5 million.

Base salary: $900,000.

Per game roster bonus: $100,000 max.

Workout bonus: $150,000.

Salary cap number: $2.4 million.

2017

Base salary: $1 million.

Roster bonus: $1.05 million.

Per game roster bonus: $150,000 max.

Workout bonus: $150,000.

Salary cap number: $3.6 million.

2018

Base salary: $3.15 million.

Roster bonus: $500,00.

Per game roster bonus: $200,000.

Workout bonus: $150,000.

Salary cap number: $5.25 million.

2019

Base salary: $3.2 million.

Per game roster bonus: $250,000.

Workout bonus: $150,000.

Salary cap number: $4.85 million.

 

[Packerlifer]

Charles Woodson "saved" Crosby's career in Green Bay. http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/po...pep-talk-for-pulling-him-out-of-2012-tailspin

 

[adambr2]

Here are the specifics of Crosby's deal:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...-million-this-year-b99681314z1-371060791.html

Without a restructure, the contract will either be 1/$6.15M, 2/$8.5M, 3/$12.4M, 4/$16.1M.

No matter whether or not he completes the deal, there is no way this deal can average less than $4M per season. There is zero team friendly 'escape' structuring like there is with Guion's deal.

To be blunt, I absolutely hate it.

I also don't understand the mentality that just because we can afford it and aren't cap strapped, it's okay. I think that's a dangerous mentality for a front office to have. I can afford to pay for $6 gas if I absolutely have to, but if it's $1.50 across the street, I'm going across the street.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Without a restructure, the contract will either be 1/$6.15M, 2/$8.5M, 3/$12.4M, 4/$16.1M.

No matter whether or not he completes the deal, there is no way this deal can average less than $4M per season. There is zero team friendly 'escape' structuring like there is with Guion's deal.

To be blunt, I absolutely hate it.

There's no way the Packers are able to release him after one season even if Crosby struggles in 2016 because that move would result in an additional cap hit of $150,000. With the way the deal is structured it's likely Crosby will be the team's kicker for the next four seasons.

As I've said repeatedly I don't like the contract either.

 

[adambr2]

There's no way the Packers are able to release him after one season even if Crosby struggles in 2016 because that move would result in an additional cap hit of $150,000. With the way the deal is structured it's likely Crosby will be the team's kicker for the next four seasons.

As I've said repeatedly I don't like the contract either.

I could possibly see a release/restructure after 2 seasons unless he's kicking near 90%.

I can't see taking a $5.25M hit for him in 2018.