Packers and Mason Crosby agree to 4 year deal.

[tynimiller]

You're welcome to your opinion, but I don't happen to share it. Green Bay is not the easiest place to kick in, yet last year he kicked pretty well here.

Actually no he didn't as stated earlier with his sub 40 degree kicking days outside....when Lambeau actually gets tougher to kick on.

 

[adambr2]

Captain has laid out some significant FACTS as to why we overpaid Crosby...just curious does anyone have some numbers/stats that show he is a Top 3 kicker?

Here are kickers that have come into the league in the last 3 or less years as rookies and their career FG percentages:

Cody Parkey - 87.5%
Chandler Catanzaro - 89.1%
Brandon Mcmanus - 81.3%
Cairo Santos - 82.1%
Patrick Murray 83.3%
Nate Freese - 42.9%
Chris Boswell - 90.6%
Dustin Hopkins - 89.3%
Travis Koons - 87.5%
Jason Myers -86.7%
Andrew Franks - 81.3%
Josh Lambo - 81.3%

Mason Crosby - 79.7%

As shown it's phenomenally easy to find a young replacement kicker and get 80%+ for a fraction of the cost. The one bust in that group is Freese who is the only one with a lower FG percentage than Crosby for his career. Way more often than not the guy is going to stick.

The Lambeau Field argument is a very weak one, for a number of reasons. 1) Half the games aren't there 2) Half the games that are there are generally perfectly suitable for kicking, and 3) Green Bay is hardly the only location with inclimate weather in December.

It also ignores the fact that going to Minnesota and Detroit every year, Crosby has already had 2 dome games just in the division every year until very recently when the Vikings left the dome. The marginal difference doesn't make up for the wide gap in the difference between Crosby's career FG percentage and the typical standard today, and certainly doesn't justify a 4M dollar payday.

Oh, by the way, the worst kickers in the NFL by FG percentage this season were Sebastian Jankowski and Matt Bryant, (after Greg the leg, a 4 year vet) two of the longest tenured kickers around. The idea that a young inexperienced kicker is more likely to have a dud year is just a cliche, fear driven fallacy.

I can't make any better arguments for why Crosby doesn't come close to a 4M a year valuation than I have here. As Captain said some people are stuck in their lines of thinking and no amount of logic and reason is going to convince them otherwise.

 

[TJV]

Informative and I agree adambr2. As I posted in the other Crosby thread, I understand Thompson not wanting to deal with the uncertainty of replacing a PK, but I wish he would have let Crosby test the market and come back with the best offer.

 

[OldSchool101]

Here are kickers that have come into the league in the last 3 or less years as rookies and their career FG percentages:

Cody Parkey - 87.5%
Chandler Catanzaro - 89.1%
Brandon Mcmanus - 81.3%
Cairo Santos - 82.1%
Patrick Murray 83.3%
Nate Freese - 42.9%
Chris Boswell - 90.6%
Dustin Hopkins - 89.3%
Travis Koons - 87.5%
Jason Myers -86.7%
Andrew Franks - 81.3%
Josh Lambo - 81.3%

Mason Crosby - 79.7%

As shown it's phenomenally easy to find a young replacement kicker and get 80%+ for a fraction of the cost. The one bust in that group is Freese who is the only one with a lower FG percentage than Crosby for his career. Way more often than not the guy is going to stick.

The Lambeau Field argument is a very weak one, for a number of reasons. 1) Half the games aren't there 2) Half the games that are there are generally perfectly suitable for kicking, and 3) Green Bay is hardly the only location with inclimate weather in December.

It also ignores the fact that going to Minnesota and Detroit every year, Crosby has already had 2 dome games just in the division every year until very recently when the Vikings left the dome. The marginal difference doesn't make up for the wide gap in the difference between Crosby's career FG percentage and the typical standard today, and certainly doesn't justify a 4M dollar payday.

Oh, by the way, the worst kickers in the NFL by FG percentage this season were Sebastian Jankowski and Matt Bryant, (after Greg the leg, a 4 year vet) two of the longest tenured kickers around. The idea that a young inexperienced kicker is more likely to have a dud year is just a cliche, fear driven fallacy.

I can't make any better arguments for why Crosby doesn't come close to a 4M a year valuation than I have here. As Captain said some people are stuck in their lines of thinking and no amount of logic and reason is going to convince them otherwise.

Based on your own facts: That's an
81.9% average for these rookie kickers (How many of those rookie kickers will hold that average 9+ years without a slump year? How many will break their franchise records for pts scored? How many will possibly be in jail for a DUI or worse in a career?
How many went 100% in extra point tries in any year they've started all 16 games plus post seasons??
Or don't those points count any more?? Character doesn't count anymore either? You let your team Captain go?
I would also reason that some teams can't leave "well enough" alone and will lose a solid K over negligible $
We have bigger fish to fry IMO. We can lose that kinda $ in a flash resigning the wrong player or overpaying a high salary guy who doesn't lead the team at his position.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Here are kickers that have come into the league in the last 3 or less years as rookies and their career FG percentages:

If we are looking at the last 3 years, Mason's % over that time is 85.7% and 100% on PAT after the change in the rule. Him becoming more consistent during this time no doubt factored into the decision.

While I am not arguing your point, something i found interesting is that there are currently 42 Kickers on the NFL payroll. Without going through each guy, I am guessing some didn't work out and are currently free agents? Do their numbers change the %'s and the total money spent on the position by teams? Some could be injury replacements.

http://overthecap.com/position/kicker/

While there is no doubt the Packers could have gone the cheap route and paid a rookie $500K and used the savings towards keeping one of our own or towards a FA, but banking that money and using it that way doesn't guarantee anything either, just like paying Crosby doesn't guarantee anything.

All that said, The Packers must have decided that Crosby still has a strong enough leg, consistent and dependable enough on FG's and PAT's to not take a chance on potentially derailing a season with a Nate Freese?

Maybe he will give us a little more of this hustle with the extra money it appears we are paying him?

https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cc...uploads/chorus_asset/file/5872011/mason.0.gif

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

but I wish he would have let Crosby test the market and come back with the best offer.

I wondered the same thing, if that wasn't the best strategy. But then I wondered how often does that game of chicken ("go test the waters and come back to us") work in the NFL? Not saying it hasn't worked, just wonder how often it backfires? Also, how much would we have saved to risk losing him?

 

[Pkrjones]

Here are kickers that have come into the league in the last 3 or less years as rookies and their career FG percentages:

Cody Parkey - 87.5%
Chandler Catanzaro - 89.1%
Brandon Mcmanus - 81.3%
Cairo Santos - 82.1%
Patrick Murray 83.3%
Nate Freese - 42.9%
Chris Boswell - 90.6%
Dustin Hopkins - 89.3%
Travis Koons - 87.5%
Jason Myers -86.7%
Andrew Franks - 81.3%
Josh Lambo - 81.3%

Mason Crosby - 79.7%

Murray & Freese didn't even play in '15... would they be a better TT FA signing?
In '15:
Catanzaro was 6/9 from 40+ yds. and 0/2 from 50+, 53/58 XP's
Parkey was 1/2 from 40+ and 0/0 from 50+, 7/7 XP's
McManus was 10/15 from 40+ and 5/7 from 50+, 35/36XP's
Santos was 13/19 from 40+ and 4/8 from 50+, 39/41XP's
Boswell was 11/14 from 40+ and 2/2 from 50+, 26/27 XP's
Hopkins 9/12 from 40+ and 2/4 from 50+, 39/40 XP's
***** 7/11 from 40+ and 0/2 from 50+, 22/24 XP's
Myers 9/12 from 40+ and 3/4 from 50+, 32/39 XP's
Franks 5/8 from 40+ and 1/2 from 50+, 33/36 XP's
Lambo 15/21 from 40+ and 4/5 from 50+, 28/32XP's
Crosby 12/16 from 40+ and 4/5 from 50+, 36/36 XP's

MM & TT value consistency and Crosby gives them that, whether it's from 32 yds. or 55 yds. there's no hesitation to put him out there to get points.

 

[adambr2]

Based on your own facts: That's an
81.9% average for these rookie kickers

(How many of those rookie kickers will hold that average 9+ years without a slump year? How many will break their franchise records for pts scored? How many will possibly be in jail for a DUI or worse in a career?
How many went 100% in extra point tries in any year they've started all 16 games plus post seasons??
Or don't those points count any more?? Character doesn't count anymore either? You let your team Captain go?
I would also reason that some teams can't leave "well enough" alone and will lose a solid K over negligible $
We have bigger fish to fry IMO. We can lose that kinda $ in a flash resigning the wrong player or overpaying a high salary guy who doesn't lead the team at his position.

Based on your own facts: That's an
81.9% average for these rookie kickers (How many of those rookie kickers will hold that average 9+ years without a slump year? How many will break their franchise records for pts scored? How many will possibly be in jail for a DUI or worse in a career?
How many went 100% in extra point tries in any year they've started all 16 games plus post seasons??
Or don't those points count any more?? Character doesn't count anymore either? You let your team Captain go?
I would also reason that some teams can't leave "well enough" alone and will lose a solid K over negligible $
We have bigger fish to fry IMO. We can lose that kinda $ in a flash resigning the wrong player or overpaying a high salary guy who doesn't lead the team at his position.

First of all, you didn't calculate that 81.9% by just adding in Freese's 42.9%, did you? That's really misleading. Freese had 7 career kicks. If you actually take every FG made and attempted on that list you're going to come up with much higher than 81.9%.

Never said XPS didn't count. Good luck trying to predict who is going to miss them next year. Crosby is just as likely to miss 3 as any other kicker. He missed 2 in 2014. Just circumstance.

Franchise record for points scored is pretty meaningless in terms of accuracy, it's just a longetivity thing because we keep re-signing him. Longwell I believe was our last franchise leader. Not because he was great but because he was here a long time.

I would also not refer to 4M as negligible.

 

[adambr2]

Murray & Freese didn't even play in '15... .

Thank you for proving my point. Patrick Murray is an 83.3% career FG kicker and can't even get a job. That is how dime a dozen 80-85% kickers are these days and why you don't need to pay $4M a season for one.

 

[adambr2]

I wondered the same thing, if that wasn't the best strategy. But then I wondered how often does that game of chicken ("go test the waters and come back to us") work in the NFL? Not saying it hasn't worked, just wonder how often it backfires? Also, how much would we have saved to risk losing him?

I believe Raji had to come crawling back to us last year for a small 1 year deal. Or maybe that was the year before.

 

[Vrill]

Trust the process.

 

[TeamTundra]

Per Tom Siverstein of the Milwaukee JS Crosby is expected to
count $2.4 million against this year's salary cap, so the deal
appears to be cap friendly in the first year or two.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Per Tom Siverstein of the Milwaukee JS Crosby is expected to
count $2.4 million against this year's salary cap, so the deal
appears to be cap friendly in the first year or two.

Does this mean everyone can stop freaking out now? I'd rather overpay a reliable guy than underpay a bust.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Does this mean everyone can stop freaking out now? I'd rather overpay a reliable guy than underpay a bust.

Who's freaking out? We are just counting the moths flying out of TT's wallet at an alarming rate with this one...next up....ILB and TE....

 

[El Guapo]

I know one thing. Had TT let Crosby go and picked up a replacement or rookie that didn't pan out, all of the Negative Nancy's would be out here talking about yet another position that cheap-old-Ted neglected. While the contract appears to be overly generous on the surface, I'll hold off my final opinion until I understand the cap ramifications of the new contract.

Crosby has improved as his whiskers grayed and there's no reason to believe that he won't continue to improve. Kickers don't wear out like other positions so it's a key one worthy of long-term investment.

Let's not forget how important the FG kicker can be when your offense is sputtering, as Green Bay's did most of the season. You need a quality kicker. I'll take 85% from a veteran and hope for 90%.

 

[Vrill]

Prisoners of the moment. We wont even be discussing this soon down the road.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Prisoners of the moment. We wont even be discussing this soon down the road.

I´m quite sure we will during next year´s offseason when cap space will be at a premium for the Packers.

 

[El Guapo]

Luckily with this leadership, there have rarely been examples of overpaid players. Jones was the most recent one that got any attention on these boards and that was a few years ago. No reason to think that this is a deal that will hamstring us next season. If anything we should be talking about Peppers' contract and how the team should be negotiating that down.

 

[longtimefan]

Thank you for proving my point. Patrick Murray is an 83.3% career FG kicker and can't even get a job. That is how dime a dozen 80-85% kickers are these days and why you don't need to pay $4M a season for one.

Maybe the point was that was a small sample size..

I get your point that a rookie can kick as good.

But something is to be said for how many years you are doing it

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Luckily with this leadership, there have rarely been examples of overpaid players. Jones was the most recent one that got any attention on these boards and that was a few years ago. No reason to think that this is a deal that will hamstring us next season. If anything we should be talking about Peppers' contract and how the team should be negotiating that down.

The additional cap hit of $7 million for Crosby over the next two season compared to a rookie kicker will most likely result in the Packers not being able to re-sign one of the offensive linemen set to become free agents next offseason.

EDIT: After reading Mondio´s post and thinking about the possibility of offering Peppers an extension I agree with him that it doesn´t make any sense to do that.

 

[El Guapo]

My guess is that TT is betting on Tretter to take someone's spot after departing next season, and he will draft an offensive lineman in the 2nd to 4th round this year for more backfill. My point in offering that is that Thompson and Ball surely didn't ink Crosby and then immediately think....crap....now this ruined our plan for the O-line. They have a plan one way or the other. I still believe that the real mistake was signing Bulaga with his injury history. In any case, we will see how this pans out but we rarely see the Packers in cap hell under the TT/Ball leadership duo. They seem to and will likely find a way.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My guess is that TT is betting on Tretter to take someone's spot after departing next season, and he will draft an offensive lineman in the 2nd to 4th round this year for more backfill. My point in offering that is that Thompson and Ball surely didn't ink Crosby and then immediately think....crap....now this ruined our plan for the O-line. They have a plan one way or the other. I still believe that the real mistake was signing Bulaga with his injury history. In any case, we will see how this pans out but we rarely see the Packers in cap hell under the TT/Ball leadership duo. They seem to and will likely find a way.

I agree that Thompson and Ball for sure have a plan in their minds what to do next offseason, not sure I agree with it though. The Packers have been in a good situation regarding the salary cap for most of TT´s tenure but as has been mentioned several times on the forum this might change in 2017.

 

[Wynnebeck]

My guess is that TT is betting on Tretter to take someone's spot after departing next season, and he will draft an offensive lineman in the 2nd to 4th round this year for more backfill. My point in offering that is that Thompson and Ball surely didn't ink Crosby and then immediately think....crap....now this ruined our plan for the O-line. They have a plan one way or the other. I still believe that the real mistake was signing Bulaga with his injury history. In any case, we will see how this pans out but we rarely see the Packers in cap hell under the TT/Ball leadership duo. They seem to and will likely find a way.

I agree. If TT and Ball pride themselves on cap management skills and are looking to make a splash this FA, why would they dig themselves in a hole out of nowhere? Crosby is getting overpaid no doubt, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the deal is structured in a way that benefits the Packers more than Crosby.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree. If TT and Ball pride themselves on cap management skills and are looking to make a splash this FA, why would they dig themselves in a hole out of nowhere? Crosby is getting overpaid no doubt, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the deal is structured in a way that benefits the Packers more than Crosby.

The $5 million signing bonus indicates the Packers fully plan on keeping Crosby for the entire length of the contract. While the structure of the deal is important in some way he will most likely count a total of $16.1 million towards the Packers cap over the next four years. No matter how you look at it that´s too much for a mediocre kicker.

 

[Poppa San]

But he's not mediocre, just average.