I thought for a while that I had a basic grasp on the cap, but obviously that isn't the case. Since they're free for what I want, I use Sportrac and Over the Cap. In Perry's case, they both show an $11.1 cap hit if released this year, with a $3.3375 cap savings. I see that there's a $4.8 roster bonus on March 15, which correlates to WIMM's post, but even if that's added to the savings, that's $8.137.
The number from Poker match those in the "Cash Details" column of Sportrac, but cash and cap are apples and oranges, right?
The ironic thing is that all I was trying to do was agree that Perry could be cut, but if I'm that far off on understanding the cap, I'd really appreciate a short primer from either of you. If it's too much to tie up the thread, PM would be great. Thanks.
You can't add the $4.8 mil roster bonus to savings if he's cut before it is due because that amount is already included in the $3.3 mil savings number. The thing to keep in mind is these dead cap / savings numbers are as of
this moment. To illustrate:
- If he is cut before the roster bonus is due the savings is that $3.3 mil figure
- If he is cut after the roster bonus is due, the savings goes negative, -$1.5 mil
Here's the thing. What happens if you keep him for the entire season? There is cash and cap that dwindles away as the league year moves along that you would not pay if he is cut now. To illustrate:
- When the $400,000 workout bonus gets paid the cap savings goes from -$1.5 mil (after paying the roster bonus) to -$1.9 mil.
- At final cutdowns with the $5.3 mil base salary then guaranteed, the savings goes to -$7.2 mil.
- And if he earns the $600,000 in per game bonuses the savings goes to -$7.8 mil.
So, from this standpoint, where you forego $3.3 mil in savings by cutting him for -$7.8 mil in savings if kept for the year, brings the one year cap cost for Perry to $11.1 mil vs. cutting him now. I would surmise this is where the Captain came up with that $10.8 mil savings number after accounting for some discrepancies too deep in the weeds for me to bother figuring out. This $11.1 savings figure is not be confused with the $11.1 mil in dead cap. It is mere happenstance that they are equal.
So, there are a couple of ways to look at it. If you're looking to build a roster for 2019 with the future be damned, then you could say you're not going to get much of a Perry replacement for that $3.3 mil in savings before that roster bonus comes due. This is usually where the analysis stops (but not in the front office where they would be taking a multi-year view) and I admit to glossing over the math myself in the past. But as he earns the various chunks of money as we go along and it comes off the cap, you're really looking at that $11.1 mil (or $10.8 mil) in cap difference in the cut-now vs. keep-for-the-year equation.
So, if you keep Perry and don't win, that's $11.1 mil (or 10.8 mil) in cap you will not have next season. There's no free lunch. If you go all-in for one year, whether it is gambling with Perry or signing some aging free agent to big bucks over a couple of years, and you don't win, those are resources you do not have to spend next year or the one after.
So, in the inimitable words of Harry Callahan, "do you feel lucky?" I'll leave out the "punk" because you don't seem to be that. And by "lucky" I mean, "how close do you think this roster can get to championship caliber by opening day".
I don't feel close to that lucky. It's why I advocate spending cap on second contract guys who are more likely to have a multi-year runway of productivity and count on adding impact (and cheap contracts) through the draft to create a viable window of opportunity.