Official Week 18 vs Bears Pregame Thread

[OldSchool101]

One advantage we have from being in the North. We have played one of THE most Top Heavy schedules in the league.

A 15 Win Team at Home
a 14 Win Team on the Road
a 14 Win Team at Home
a 15 Win Team on the Road
a 13+ Win team in Neutral territory.

Answer me this Riddle. How many teams in the NFL have played at minimum 5 separate contests on their schedule that are currently 13+ Wins

Playing the best teams makes you stronger imo

The answer is 1, Green Bay Packers
Has that ever happened before?

 

[OldSchool101]

So here’s my contention. It’s VERY rare to play 5 contests against what we know to be 13+ Wins in a single season. Much less a pair of 15 Win level contests and a pair of 14 Win contests in that mix!

To take that schedule and come out with 11-12 Wins is still commendable. Don’t worry about excuses. Very few (if any) in the NFL have faced that level of competition at those intervals. To come out with only 1 team beating us all year by more than 5 points speaks volumes. We are not that far away. We start slow, we bumble around in the middle while dropping passes and fumbling balls or drawing stupid mental flags. Even then, we get within 2 points and scare them all. We are the youngest team in the NFL let’s stop pretending like we haven’t been a little more inconsistent than we should have or that we start slower than we should.

Start fast. Be consistent.
Quit bumbling around

 

[milani]

Shame, but at least there is some clarity to what has been going on.

Looks like he should shut it down and see how he is next April.

 

[Thirteen Below]

This play last night by the Lions sums up my feelings about having MLF call plays VS Detroit's OC Ben Johnson.

MLF lacks creativity. Also, the few times MLF has tried to get creative, the plays have lacked in execution.

MSN

Good lord.... how does anyone even begin to defend that???

 

[Thirteen Below]

Answer me this Riddle. How many teams in the NFL have played at minimum 5 separate contests on their schedule that are currently 13+ Wins

Playing the best teams makes you stronger imo

Good analysis; thank you for that!

It got me doing a little digging of my own. I'd forgotten this, but entering the 2024 season, Geen Bay had the 4th toughest schedule in the league. The Lions were #11, the Vikings #18, and the Eagles #21.


Trouble is, we all know that those rankings are based on the won-lost records of the previous year. As the season develops, we always find out that some of the teams were stronger than expected, and some weaker, so the end-of-season SOS is always revised. I'm a little surprised that there doesn't seem to be any site that updates the actual SOS at the end of each week, and figuring that out is way beyond me.

To take that schedule and come out with 11-12 Wins is still commendable. Don’t worry about excuses. Very few (if any) in the NFL have faced that level of competition at those intervals. To come out with only 1 team beating us all year by more than 5 points speaks volumes.

That's one way of looking at it, and it's valid. But (no offense) I thnk it's a little too optimistic.

All of what you say is true, and it's relevant, but at the end of the day, these are things that are only said by teams who finish as runners-up. Nobody in Philadelphia is saying anything like that this year... and for the first time in years (decades, even) nobody's saying that in Detroit or Minnesota.

Because those teams find ways to make sure they come out on top in those games.

We are not that far away. We start slow, we bumble around in the middle while dropping passes and fumbling balls or drawing stupid mental flags.

That's my take on this season, too. We were all very confident after the way we finished 2023, but this year we are seeing that we're still not quite there. We need a little more skill/talent a few key positions, maybe a little depth at one or two spots, and - most of all - experience, maturity, and leadership. All of which we expect to develop as the players from the last few drafts become more seasoned veterans.

I like where we're at, though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not sure if it was posted elsewhere, but Jaire is done for the season. His knee required surgery.

 

[tynimiller]

Not sure if it was posted elsewhere, but Jaire is done for the season. His knee required surgery.

Rumored he might be able to play for SB if we made it but all that depends on rehab.

Hindsight allows this now, but damnit I wish GB and he had decided to do surgery the second the injury happened and he likely would be back now or really close.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Trouble is, we all know that those rankings are based on the won-lost records of the previous year. As the season develops, we always find out that some of the teams were stronger than expected, and some weaker, so the end-of-season SOS is always revised. I'm a little surprised that there doesn't seem to be any site that updates the actual SOS at the end of each week, and figuring that out is way beyond me.

I have thought the same thing for years. An updated "SOS already played" and a "SOS coming up". both based on up to the minute facts, should be readily available, especially if you are a gambler.

Maybe there is one available and only Vegas owns the rights to it?

 

[PackerDNA]

I feel the team botched the Alexander situation by waiting so long to come to a conclusion. Also, not having brought in a veteran such as Xavier Howard or Patrick Peterson. If they're just going to roll with what they have, got a bad feeling that that'll end up being there downfall in the playoffs

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Did you like what you saw from the Packer Offense last weekend? That was actually hard to watch for me and taking the week off is not a good method of fixing that dull performance. We are NOT some fine tuned unit on Offense.

I didn't like the Packers first half performance, but some of the should also be credited to the Vikings defensive performance.

Fans expecting the offense to "improve" for the playoffs, by playing their 17th game on Sunday, might be expecting a bit too much.

Again, I wouldn't give all the starters "the week off", they would still be practicing and watching film, I would just not put them on the field on Sunday. The risk of injuries to starters in the final game of the season, before the playoffs, isn't worth any gains they might make by winning IMO.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I feel the team botched the Alexander situation by waiting so long to come to a conclusion. Also, not having brought in a veteran such as Xavier Howard or Patrick Peterson. If they're just going to roll with what they have, got a bad feeling that that'll end up being there downfall in the playoffs

I can't remember the player(s), maybe Bahk, but this isn't the first time that a starter went through this same thing for the Packers. Probably not an easy for the team when an injury like this happens during the season. Not knowing the healing time or even if it will fully heal on its own. Which are things that can change from player to player, especially when the severity differs.

Anyway, I do agree that the Packers should have been trying to strengthen their roster through Free agents, but I can't say for sure that they weren't. Gute has been pretty good when it comes to improving the roster in-season and it wasn't like not having Alexander was the only issue with injures and play of the secondary.

I think we as fans can jump to the conclusion that there is always a player readily available to improve a team. The reality is, that isn't always the case.

 

[weeds]

Just beat the damned Bears. I don't like them or their fans. Just saying... AGAIN.

 

[OldSchool101]

I have thought the same thing for years. An updated "SOS already played" and a "SOS coming up". both based on up to the minute facts, should be readily available, especially if you are a gambler.
Maybe there is one available and only Vegas owns the rights to it?

GB (.551) has played the #3 toughest schedule in the NFL by SOS. The only remaining team in Postseason that had a tougher schedule than us was Baltimore (.555)
The 49ers SOS was League high at astounding .574

This is part of the reasoning I have for optimism. I was tracking it before 2010 and I argued the exact same thing on NFL.com and nobody but “PackerLover” her username was different it was like Sasebo? It’s like a Navy base she was stationed at or something like that? It’s why I call her “Sassy Sasebo” Shelly she stood up against the mutiny of non believers. In 2010 We had one of the top 2 toughest schedules + we led the league in + Net Takeaways going into Postseason. Very similar to this season

 

[OldSchool101]

Baltimore Victories are #1 real time. .551 SOV, which is exceptional. Their 11-5 is more of a 12 Win feel. The teams Baltimore has bested (SOV) are #1 .555.

The Vikings are a .445 SOS .402 SOV. which is why I say who have they beaten? Who have they played? A bunch of struggling teams that’s who. They caught the Packers injured Week 4 and relatively injured again Week 17. I’m not saying they didn’t deserve to Win, but it’s wise to peel a little deeper on the condition of opponents also. They just caught us Twice more injured than they are. That’s a fact.

The Packers are similar SOV on teams we’ve beaten .409. But for all the slack that we’ve beaten “easier teams” were #9 of the current 14 playoff teams in SOV. Not nearly as out of whack as everyone claims.

VIkings, Washington, Miami are your bottom feeders of playoff teams in strength of their Wins (SOV) and Totality (schedule).

GB is #3 SOS #9 SOV of the current top 14 teams (playoff). We have not had nearly the easy road some are saying when using comps.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

GB (.551) has played the #3 toughest schedule in the NFL by SOS. The only remaining team in Postseason that had a tougher schedule than us was Baltimore (.555)
The 49ers SOS was League high at astounding .574

This is part of the reasoning I have for optimism. I was tracking it before 2010 and I argued the exact same thing on NFL.com and nobody but “PackerLover” her username was different it was like Sasebo? It’s like a Navy base she was stationed at or something like that? It’s why I call her “Sassy Sasebo” Shelly she stood up for me. In 2010 We had one of the top 2 toughest schedules + we led the league in + Net Takeaways going into Postseason. Very similar to this season

I have to wonder exactly how those "SOS" rankings are come up with. This one seems to only use "Vegas Odds and results". Do they factor in injuries, blown calls, weather, etc.?

This one also has the Packers as having the "6th toughest schedule".

Anyway, whatever SOS one tries to use as a measuring stick to gauge a teams success or failure, there are so many other variables to consider.

2024 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Teams Ranked for Regular Season

Ranking 2024 NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams easiest to hardest, based on projected win totals for every opponent from Vegas oddsmakers.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

 

[PackerDNA]

What a strange year. We can win 12 games and end up third in our division and 7th and last seed. The loser of the vikings-lions game will have 14 wins and be a wild card. Any other year that's almost certainly good enough to get you number one seed.

 

[gopkrs]

GB (.551) has played the #3 toughest schedule in the NFL by SOS. The only remaining team in Postseason that had a tougher schedule than us was Baltimore (.555)
The 49ers SOS was League high at astounding .574

This is part of the reasoning I have for optimism. I was tracking it before 2010 and I argued the exact same thing on NFL.com and nobody but “PackerLover” her username was different it was like Sasebo? It’s like a Navy base she was stationed at or something like that? It’s why I call her “Sassy Sasebo” Shelly she stood up against the mutiny of non believers. In 2010 We had one of the top 2 toughest schedules + we led the league in + Net Takeaways going into Postseason. Very similar to this season

I imagine the schedule has been shown to be tough is because 2 teams that we play 2 times each, have such a good record. Though I guess chicago knocks that down some

 

[Schultz]

So here’s my contention. It’s VERY rare to play 5 contests against what we know to be 13+ Wins in a single season. Much less a pair of 15 Win level contests and a pair of 14 Win contests in that mix!

To take that schedule and come out with 11-12 Wins is still commendable. Don’t worry about excuses. Very few (if any) in the NFL have faced that level of competition at those intervals. To come out with only 1 team beating us all year by more than 5 points speaks volumes. We are not that far away. We start slow, we bumble around in the middle while dropping passes and fumbling balls or drawing stupid mental flags. Even then, we get within 2 points and scare them all. We are the youngest team in the NFL let’s stop pretending like we haven’t been a little more inconsistent than we should have or that we start slower than we should.

Start fast. Be consistent.
Quit bumbling around

I am hoping for all of this, but most importantly that GB scores more points than the other team does.

 

[OldSchool101]

I have to wonder exactly how those "SOS" rankings are come up with. This one seems to only use "Vegas Odds and results". Do they factor in injuries, blown calls, weather, etc.?

This one also has the Packers as having the "6th toughest schedule".

Anyway, whatever SOS one tries to use as a measuring stick to gauge a teams success or failure, there are so many other variables to consider.

2024 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Teams Ranked for Regular Season

Ranking 2024 NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams easiest to hardest, based on projected win totals for every opponent from Vegas oddsmakers.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

That isn’t real time. It’s old and used projected win totals. We don’t need to project anything the season has nearly played out. The ESPN one uses real time. I know it for a fact because it even shows our upcoming game and Chicagos difficulty ranking is exactly their current League ranking. It’s normally updated within <24 hours or so tops after each game. Some of its info gets updated minutes after a game.

Obviously SOS doesn’t make some perfect prediction. I never claimed it did. It’s an important metric though. I’d stick to the Power Index because SOS or SOV is just one of dozens of components that factor it in.

Using an out of date SOS is like using a year old prescription. I’m not going to claim it’s worthless. But It’s flirting with not being effective if it’s not real time.

 

[OldSchool101]

I am hoping for all of this, but most importantly that GB scores more points than the other team does.

Sir. I do concur!

Not you but What’s funny is someone in here once told me that yards were more important than Points.
That’s a True Story you can’t make it up I literally logged off it was a sign I was spending too much time in here.

Thank You for backing me up with the above quote. Where were you when I needed you?

 

[tahoebum]

If Washington is up on Dallas like they should be at halftime and MLF doesn’t sit some key starters the 2nd half, he better get ready for some angry fans and press if one of them suffers an injury that keeps them out of the game at Philly.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not you but What’s funny is someone in here once told me that yards were more important than Points.

Guessing a Bears fan?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Washington is up on Dallas like they should be at halftime and MLF doesn’t sit some key starters the 2nd half, he better get ready for some angry fans and press if one of them suffers an injury that keeps them out of the game at Philly.

No matter what happens Sunday, MLF will have to face angry fans.

So it seems like you and some are proposing that MLF should hitch his wagons to the Commanders game? How angry will Packer fans be if Love or Jacobs sustain a season ending injury while Dallas holds a small lead over the Commanders?

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[PackerDNA]

As far as playing or sitting players, it's a damned if you do damned if you don't situation. You can't predict or control injuries. Just stay focused and play the game. What will happen will happen.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

As far as playing or sitting players, it's a damned if you do damned if you don't situation. You can't predict or control injuries. Just stay focused and play the game. What will happen will happen.

I think Lafleur himself said it best at a presser. "The best decision is the one that works out."