Let me clarify my original point, because it's being construed at times as to mean I think that defense isn't important and that having a strong defense isn't an edge over a team that doesn't have one. Obviously, it's an advantage.
My point was simply this, based on the cliché of "defense wins championships".
An elite, top 5 scoring offense, will almost always give you a chance to win it all. An elite defense on the other hand, can still be part of a bad team. An elite offense will almost always be on an above average team.
Top 5 scoring offenses by year, all playoff teams bolded:
2018: Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Patriots, Colts
2017: Rams, Patriots, Eagles, Saints, Jaguars
2016: Falcons, Saints, Patriots, Packers, Cowboys
2015: Panthers, Cardinals, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks
2014: Packers, Broncos, Eagles, Patriots, Cowboys
Top 5 scoring defenses by year, all playoff teams bolded:
2018: Bears, Ravens, Titans, Jaguars, Texans
2017: Vikings, Jaguars, Chargers, Eagles, Patriots
2016: Patriots, Giants, Seahawks, Broncos, Cowboys
2015: Seahawks, Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Vikings
2014: Seahawks, Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Cardinals
It is incredibly rare for a top 5 offense to be left out of the playoffs based on the last 5 years, at a 92% success rate. A top 5 defense, while obviously still successful, had only an 80% chance comparatively. Only 11 out of the last 25 top 5 defenses (44%) have even made it to the divisional round! On the offensive side, that stat is a whopping 22 out of 25! That's how important having a top 5 offense has become, while having a top 5 defense doesn't even necessarily equate to getting past your first opponent in the WC round.
That's all I meant by saying that "defense wins championships" is dead. I wasn't implying that having a good defense isn't important or helpful, just that it pales in comparison to how far ahead an elite offense puts you on the totem pole these days.
