Next QB?

[4zone]

I think it's finally time for the Packers to start planning for AR's replacement. If this past year's trend continues, or, hopefully improves, we will be drafting late in Rd 1 for a couple more years.

If we wait till AR retires, and go with our backup the following year, that could move us up some in the next draft, but we waste that year. FA is too unreliable and expensive so that's out, which leaves drafting someone while AR is still active.

So when do we make that move, and what do we expend to make a move to get a serious contender that we don't have to overpay while he rides the pine learning from Yoda AR?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

I think it's finally time for the Packers to start planning for AR's replacement. If this past year's trend continues, or, hopefully improves, we will be drafting late in Rd 1 for a couple more years.

If we wait till AR retires, and go with our backup the following year, that could move us up some in the next draft, but we waste that year. FA is too unreliable and expensive so that's out, which leaves drafting someone while AR is still active.

So when do we make that move, and what do we expend to make a move to get a serious contender that we don't have to overpay while he rides the pine learning from Yoda AR?

Jimmy Garropolo ?................Joking, Joking !!

 

[XPack]

Swear to god, this is probably the 3rd or 4th thread on this topic in past 6 months.

We should just sticky a "AR scuccessor discussion" thread.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

I don't think we can do it this year unless someone drops. I would be happy with Burrow, Tua or Fromm and possibly Eason. I know for sure the first 2 are gonna be going top 15-20. I've seen mocks where all 4 are gone by 22. If we CAN do it, and if it's the right guy then yes we need to do it ASAP. I would also flip 1s and throw in Rodgers to Cincy for the #1 pick, tank next year and go for it in 2021, but that is a pipe dream at best that they would do it, but yes Cincy would fall for it.

 

[4zone]

Swear to god, this is probably the 3rd or 4th thread on this topic in past 6 months.

We should just sticky a "AR scuccessor discussion" thread.

Pin it to the top then, I'm not seraching 150 pages of threads to find a history. If it aint on the first one or two, its been way too long since it was used anyway.

 

[Dantés]

Next offseason is the earliest that I would start looking for a successor.

Rodgers was in his first season in a new offense. This offense has traditionally taken about a season to gel when it has been installed in other NFL cities with other veteran QB's. His weapons were also wanting. So I think it's reasonable to allow that Rodgers could see a big bump in performance in 2020.

If he does not, and he stagnates or regresses, then I would be fine if they started taking bigger shots (i.e. day 2 picks) on quarterbacks.

But they absolutely cannot move on from Rodgers until 2022, and they cannot do so without some serious cap implications until 2023. So if you draft a QB high this season, then you are going to waste a minimum of two of those valuable, cheap rookie seasons on the bench, and more likely, three.

At most this year, I would be in for spending a later pick on competition for Boyle.

 

[HardRightEdge]

We should just sticky a "AR scuccessor discussion" thread.

Why not two sticky threads, one for Rodgers' performance and one for his successor?

Here we are 12 years after the fact and a "Brett Favre Discussion" thread still healines this forum.

As for the succession question, "not anytime soon" if we take the question to mean a 1st. or 2nd. round pick, not this draft and not the next unless Rodgers makes some weepy gestures toward retirement.

 

[TomBrownFan40]

At most this year, I would be in for spending a later pick on competition for Boyle.

Indeed. Most of the more intelligent prospect lists have a bunch of QBs listed in that 3rd to 5th round range. This might be one of those rare drafts where the proverbial "best player available" might just be a middle round QB that is not a reach. Regardless of Rodgers' plans, an upgrade over Boyle would be nice.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But they absolutely cannot move on from Rodgers until 2022, and they cannot do so without some serious cap implications until 2023. So if you draft a QB high this season, then you are going to waste a minimum of two of those valuable, cheap rookie seasons on the bench, and more likely, three.

Some of us can keep stating these facts, but there are some that just don't understand the logistics of a salary cap and how Rodgers current contract basically handcuffs the organization that agreed to it, for a few more years. I also think some have been spoiled by 2 back to back HOF QB's and expect the 3rd to just happen. Look around the league people, even in our own division, Matthew Stafford is about as close as any of those 3 teams have come to drafting a decent QB over the last 20 or so years.

This current team would be better off putting draft resources into other positions, if they feel Boyle is a good enough #2, then so be it. Maybe they get lucky and discover an UDFA gem in the next 2 years, but I think Rodgers successor is a few drafts out.

 

[Do7]

Some of us can keep stating these facts, but there are some that just don't understand the logistics of a salary cap and how Rodgers current contract basically handcuffs the organization that agreed to it, for a few more years. I also think some have been spoiled by 2 back to back HOF QB's and expect the 3rd to just happen. Look around the league people, even in our own division, Matthew Stafford is about as close as any of those 3 teams have come to drafting a decent QB over the last 20 or so years.

This current team would be better off putting draft resources into other positions, if they feel Boyle is a good enough #2, then so be it. Maybe they get lucky and discover an UDFA gem in the next 2 years, but I think Rodgers successor is a few drafts out.

I just hope we can win a title or two within those times.

 

[rmontro]

Next offseason is the earliest that I would start looking for a successor.

I tend to agree that it's too early to draft Rodgers successor, but the question is what if someone falls to us? Too good to turn down? There's also a part of me that wonders how Rodgers would respond to the "competition".

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I just hope we can win a title or two within those times.

Would be great, but Rodgers can't do it all on his own. Gute is going to have to plug a few holes on defense, get some weapons on offense and then hope the team can stay as healthy as it did last season. I think the 14-4 season can be credited to Gute and MLF improving things, but how relatively healthy the team stayed, was a very big contributing factor IMO.

 

[Sky King]

I tend to agree that it's too early to draft Rodgers successor, but the question is what if someone falls to us? Too good to turn down? There's also a part of me that wonders how Rodgers would respond to the "competition".

Good questions. Thinking back to the Ron Wolf era, he favored picking a QB late in every draft or as an UDFA because you never know. There might be a gem out there somewhere but you have to look for one to find one.

Prior to the current era, the Packers had found Ty Detmer, Aaron Brooks, Matt Hasselbeck, and Kurt Warner. Favre never seemed threatened by their presence. Warner is in the HOF, Class of 2017. There have been similar players found by other teams too, including Tony Romo, Johnny Unitas (also HOF), and the consensus GOAT (surefire HOF). Longshots come through often enough to warrant one of these low-risk acquisitions every season.

One thing is for sure though, if a team does not draft QBs late or obtain any as UDFAs, then they're never going to find one of these gems. Low risk, high reward.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One thing is for sure though, if a team does not draft QBs late or obtain any as UDFAs, then they're never going to find one of these gems. Low risk, high reward.

It isn't like the Packers haven't been drafting, trading for or signing UDFA QB's since Rodgers was drafted. Actually, if you look back, I would say all of them have pretty much been busts, with maybe Matt Flynn getting a "well he was a good backup" grade.

Wolf just happened to be a QB Guru and hit on a large percentage of them. Now maybe Gute and the new Packer staff will do better than TT and MM did, but I still don't think you carry 2 developmental QB's behind Rodgers, which the Packers have done far too much.

 

[rmontro]

Prior to the current era, the Packers had found Ty Detmer, Aaron Brooks, Matt Hasselbeck, and Kurt Warner. Favre never seemed threatened by their presence.

He didn't seem to like it when they picked Rodgers though. Maybe because of the investment shown by the first round pick. Of course some felt they should have been building the team with Favre, rather than planning for the future. Maybe he felt a bit of that.

 

[Dantés]

I tend to agree that it's too early to draft Rodgers successor, but the question is what if someone falls to us? Too good to turn down? There's also a part of me that wonders how Rodgers would respond to the "competition".

Then they'd have to weigh their grade of the QB in question against the opportunity cost.

But I really don't envision that happening. That was a pretty unique situation.

People bring up Tua-- but if that falls to #30, then something is seriously wrong with him. A hip dislocation is no joke. So it's a catch 22.

 

[Sky King]

He didn't seem to like it when they picked Rodgers though. Maybe because of the investment shown by the first round pick. Of course some felt they should have been building the team with Favre, rather than planning for the future. Maybe he felt a bit of that.

It's all speculative, of course, but under a different set of non-retirement circumstances, Rodgers may very well have been the one who got traded.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Indeed. Most of the more intelligent prospect lists have a bunch of QBs listed in that 3rd to 5th round range. This might be one of those rare drafts where the proverbial "best player available" might just be a middle round QB that is not a reach. Regardless of Rodgers' plans, an upgrade over Boyle would be nice.

I can see spending a 5th or 6th rounder on someone to compete with Boyle. As for ARod’s ultimate replacement, that’s at least 2 years away, I hope.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

It isn't like the Packers haven't been drafting, trading for or signing UDFA QB's since Rodgers was drafted. Actually, if you look back, I would say all of them have pretty much been busts, with maybe Matt Flynn getting a "well he was a good backup" grade.

Wolf just happened to be a QB Guru and hit on a large percentage of them. Now maybe Gute and the new Packer staff will do better than TT and MM did, but I still don't think you carry 2 developmental QB's behind Rodgers, which the Packers have done far too much.

Well, one problem I think is that many scouts including ours put too much emphasis on the combine. I hate it and think it is a stupid event that proves nothing. The problem especially for QBs there is you cannot grade instinct. There are no drills period to test QB instinct or whether or not they can evade sacks.

Now, it's true that sometimes it's harder to judge a QB's instincts at the college level and all, but I feel like a number of our scouts don't do their homework in this area. If they had, I don't think Hundley gets grabbed period.

Anyway, I'm not the only one either who thinks the combine is bad

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl...s-of-team-president/4s8hf7dz4i161iqahm05iywda

 

[HardRightEdge]

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl...s-of-team-president/4s8hf7dz4i161iqahm05iywda

I think Mayock has the right perspective on the Combine. A surprising number, good or bad, would send him back to the tape to he if he missed anything.

There are some dumb aspects to it, but it is certainly not meaningless on the whole.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I think we kicked the tires on Kizer for this very reason, to be a hopeful replacement. I'm in favor of just riding Rodgers with high upside maybe smaller school talent later picks or undrafted free agents. My theory is that the elite qbs are harder to miss (there's the exception of Russell Wilson and Lamar, but now I think GMs are wise to smaller more athletic qbs being able to succeed) and as a result the way to get one with the highest likelihood of success is to tank and have an early pick. That would mean an early season injury to Rodgers or tanking the year after he retires. Either way, I'm not a fan of using an early pick (1-3 rounder) on a QB.

 

[OldSchool101]

Next offseason is the earliest that I would start looking for a successor.

Rodgers was in his first season in a new offense. This offense has traditionally taken about a season to gel when it has been installed in other NFL cities with other veteran QB's. His weapons were also wanting. So I think it's reasonable to allow that Rodgers could see a big bump in performance in 2020.

If he does not, and he stagnates or regresses, then I would be fine if they started taking bigger shots (i.e. day 2 picks) on quarterbacks.

But they absolutely cannot move on from Rodgers until 2022, and they cannot do so without some serious cap implications until 2023. So if you draft a QB high this season, then you are going to waste a minimum of two of those valuable, cheap rookie seasons on the bench, and more likely, three.

At most this year, I would be in for spending a later pick on competition for Boyle.

I’m also with you on the 1 year out minimum. I’m really at 2022-2023 season range for some serious consideration.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

I'm fine with trying to acquire Mahomes...

 

[Jason Edens]

Threads like this make me miss the good old days of having all of the Quarterback whisperers in the organization. We had Mark Brunell, Matt Hassleback, and Aaron Brooks never get to be a regular starter for us. Of course we had Aaron Rodgers back him up for a few years as well. Flynn looked like a stud at times, but other than him I don't think we have been doing well at scouting and developing qb talent for way too long, which is a huge gamble no matter if your elite quarterback is 24 years old, 36 years old, or 42 years old. This is a next man up sport, anyone's career can end in practice, preseason, in game, or at home via early retirement as we have seen recently.

I don't mind taking chances on veterans that once had a lot of promise and have left failing systems. Kizer I am not sold on, but the Titans look like genuises for picking up Tannehill. We had luxury of Doug Pederson for so long, and he was a good career backup for us. I think you want a solid veteran backup, and someone you are developing as a potential starter on the team, but the roster is just too limited to allow it for most teams. Maybe one of these minor league systems will gel one day and you can have a system more like the minors where you can develop players for the future.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Maybe send a 4th for Rosen.