Most "Likely" Trade Partners BOTH Ways Explained...

[tynimiller]

I've shared many times a Packer buddy of mine, much less devoted in researching and such, more of a Sunday passionate fan he says likes to pose discussions or questions to me for us to discuss. The most recent one was "Ty, Gute makes a trade this draft at some point during the first two rounds...give me your most likely scenarios of a trade up and most likely of a trade down..."

So I'll share my top three most likely scenarios we trade up and the three we trade down as I see them and I rank them IMO from order of likelihood if a trade plays out:

#1 - A TRADE UP FOR WR1
One thing Gute has made clear in his time here so far is he isn't afraid of bucking the trends in GB...from the massive FA year that saw us add four starters (Smith, Smith, Amos and Turner) to trading up for a QB when the need didn't indicate...Gute could 100% break the trend in GB for YEARS and not just draft a WR in the first round, but moves up to grab one he and his staff 100% feels is worth the equity to do so. Now I don't believe this trade goes higher up than #15 (Eagles). To me the Eagles who hold the 15th, 16th and 19th are the perfect trade partner for this move but I'm not going to predict a partner outside of the just saying the scenario is we move up to grab a WR. Personally I think if we do this move it will be after the first WR is chosen and Gute immediately starts measuring and discussing trades IF "player x" is still there we want your pick type deal. I think IF Gute goes up to grab a WR it is for Drake London but could see any of the concensus top guys Olave, Wilson, Williams and Burks being his guy too.

#2 - A TRADE BACK OFF OF #22 BECAUSE A QB HUNGRY TEAM FEELS THEY HAVE TO
Similar to how GB moved up to grab Love, this is a scenario where a team like the Colts, the Lions (less likely given division) or the Falcons in a limited QB pool see "their guy" however get past the Saints and start thinking of a move, they see the Packers setting on two first rounders and give Gute what he wants to come off the pick. Again not making this a part of the prediction but I think the Colts are the leading candidate here as they have the 42nd pick this year, that 3rd that could become a 2nd in the Wentz trade next year and enough other picks this year or next and a roster that is already good to be a QB away from catching fire and making this move worth it.

#3 - A TRADE BACK OFF OF #28 BECAUSE TOP SHELF VALUE AT SPOTS OF NEED ARE GONE
This is a scenario where Gute got "his guy" at either DL or WR and never could go get the "guy" at the other position before his pick at 28 came on the clock. He is sitting there with no WR he has a first round grade on or on his board above others there that aren't close to being necessary...same as DL....so he looks for a guy that fell farther than he should that maybe he had as a top 15 or top 20 guy and either there isn't one or it is a position of need for the team that just called his phone. Gute cashes in the pick and gets in return two additional top 100 picks and maybe a Day 3 even as well...Knowing tremendous value is there for the taking in Day 2 Gute now hits it with perhaps as many as 5 picks and TONS of room for movement again if needed.

#4 - A TRADE UP FOR EITHER JORDAN DAVIS OR DEVONTE WYATT
Kenny Clark is our only STUD, Lowry has been solid but nothing special...Keke is gone, the Lancaster experiment appears over and we have Slaton and Heflin now as #3 and #4...massive help is needed. Gute in a swing similar to the WR makes the exact same type of trade up (#15 or so back) to grab not a WR, but a DL named Davis or Wyatt....because they ARE THAT DANG GOOD.

#5 - A TRADE UP FOR A WR RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2 AFTER NO WRs ON DAY 1
Gute shocks the entire state of Wisconsin...pissing off Green Bay fans everywhere (not all, but many) by NOT picking a WR on Day 1 of the draft for whatever reason (maybe no trades could be had, maybe no one was there he rated high enough to justify...or other guys that he felt shouldn't have fell did and couldn't be ignored). Either way, he's setting there on the evening of Day 1 calling GMs trying to get back up to the next handful of picks should "player x" be there and I predict this scenario only happens for a WR.

#6 - A TRADE UP TO THE MIDDLE OF ROUND 2 TO SWING AT THE TOP SHELF OF THAT SECOND TIER OF DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
Wyatt, Davis (maybe Winfrey or Leal) are the top tier of DL....here Gute has a favorite in that second wave he feels is worth trading up to get once about pick 45 has happened and he sees his next guy still there...

If you were going to predict the most likely trades in the parameters provided, is there one you would add?

 

[milani]

I've shared many times a Packer buddy of mine, much less devoted in researching and such, more of a Sunday passionate fan he says likes to pose discussions or questions to me for us to discuss. The most recent one was "Ty, Gute makes a trade this draft at some point during the first two rounds...give me your most likely scenarios of a trade up and most likely of a trade down..."

So I'll share my top three most likely scenarios we trade up and the three we trade down as I see them and I rank them IMO from order of likelihood if a trade plays out:

#1 - A TRADE UP FOR WR1
One thing Gute has made clear in his time here so far is he isn't afraid of bucking the trends in GB...from the massive FA year that saw us add four starters (Smith, Smith, Amos and Turner) to trading up for a QB when the need didn't indicate...Gute could 100% break the trend in GB for YEARS and not just draft a WR in the first round, but moves up to grab one he and his staff 100% feels is worth the equity to do so. Now I don't believe this trade goes higher up than #15 (Eagles). To me the Eagles who hold the 15th, 16th and 19th are the perfect trade partner for this move but I'm not going to predict a partner outside of the just saying the scenario is we move up to grab a WR. Personally I think if we do this move it will be after the first WR is chosen and Gute immediately starts measuring and discussing trades IF "player x" is still there we want your pick type deal. I think IF Gute goes up to grab a WR it is for Drake London but could see any of the concensus top guys Olave, Wilson, Williams and Burks being his guy too.

#2 - A TRADE BACK OFF OF #22 BECAUSE A QB HUNGRY TEAM FEELS THEY HAVE TO
Similar to how GB moved up to grab Love, this is a scenario where a team like the Colts, the Lions (less likely given division) or the Falcons in a limited QB pool see "their guy" however get past the Saints and start thinking of a move, they see the Packers setting on two first rounders and give Gute what he wants to come off the pick. Again not making this a part of the prediction but I think the Colts are the leading candidate here as they have the 42nd pick this year, that 3rd that could become a 2nd in the Wentz trade next year and enough other picks this year or next and a roster that is already good to be a QB away from catching fire and making this move worth it.

#3 - A TRADE BACK OFF OF #28 BECAUSE TOP SHELF VALUE AT SPOTS OF NEED ARE GONE
This is a scenario where Gute got "his guy" at either DL or WR and never could go get the "guy" at the other position before his pick at 28 came on the clock. He is sitting there with no WR he has a first round grade on or on his board above others there that aren't close to being necessary...same as DL....so he looks for a guy that fell farther than he should that maybe he had as a top 15 or top 20 guy and either there isn't one or it is a position of need for the team that just called his phone. Gute cashes in the pick and gets in return two additional top 100 picks and maybe a Day 3 even as well...Knowing tremendous value is there for the taking in Day 2 Gute now hits it with perhaps as many as 5 picks and TONS of room for movement again if needed.

#4 - A TRADE UP FOR EITHER JORDAN DAVIS OR DEVONTE WYATT
Kenny Clark is our only STUD, Lowry has been solid but nothing special...Keke is gone, the Lancaster experiment appears over and we have Slaton and Heflin now as #3 and #4...massive help is needed. Gute in a swing similar to the WR makes the exact same type of trade up (#15 or so back) to grab not a WR, but a DL named Davis or Wyatt....because they ARE THAT DANG GOOD.

#5 - A TRADE UP FOR A WR RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2 AFTER NO WRs ON DAY 1
Gute shocks the entire state of Wisconsin...pissing off Green Bay fans everywhere (not all, but many) by NOT picking a WR on Day 1 of the draft for whatever reason (maybe no trades could be had, maybe no one was there he rated high enough to justify...or other guys that he felt shouldn't have fell did and couldn't be ignored). Either way, he's setting there on the evening of Day 1 calling GMs trying to get back up to the next handful of picks should "player x" be there and I predict this scenario only happens for a WR.

#6 - A TRADE UP TO THE MIDDLE OF ROUND 2 TO SWING AT THE TOP SHELF OF THAT SECOND TIER OF DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
Wyatt, Davis (maybe Winfrey or Leal) are the top tier of DL....here Gute has a favorite in that second wave he feels is worth trading up to get once about pick 45 has happened and he sees his next guy still there...

If you were going to predict the most likely trades in the parameters provided, is there one you would add?

I like # 4 and 36.

 

[Magooch]

#1 - A TRADE UP FOR WR1
One thing Gute has made clear in his time here so far is he isn't afraid of bucking the trends in GB...from the massive FA year that saw us add four starters (Smith, Smith, Amos and Turner) to trading up for a QB when the need didn't indicate...Gute could 100% break the trend in GB for YEARS and not just draft a WR in the first round, but moves up to grab one he and his staff 100% feels is worth the equity to do so. Now I don't believe this trade goes higher up than #15 (Eagles). To me the Eagles who hold the 15th, 16th and 19th are the perfect trade partner for this move but I'm not going to predict a partner outside of the just saying the scenario is we move up to grab a WR. Personally I think if we do this move it will be after the first WR is chosen and Gute immediately starts measuring and discussing trades IF "player x" is still there we want your pick type deal. I think IF Gute goes up to grab a WR it is for Drake London but could see any of the concensus top guys Olave, Wilson, Williams and Burks being his guy too.

The nice thing is that it seems to me (I don't know how teams/GMs actually see it, of course) that most of these top-5 WRs seem to be regarded by analysts/pundits/"experts"/etc to all be pretty close to one another without any one of them being a standout/consensus top choice ahead of the others. So I feel like odds are that probably at least 1/5 is available when we're up at 22... I guess perhaps the only exception there for us might be Williams as we may feel we need someone who is ready day one, rather than having to potentially wait a few months for recovery.

And while I'd prefer to see us grab one of these guys, I also kinda feel like if we determine there's better value in a different position at 22 (EDGE, OL, etc)...I don't know if any would slip to 28, but even still I think there's a handful of guys in that "second tier" of WR who would likely be available there and still be a good investment (Dotson, Watson, etc). And beyond that there is probably still some value further down the board in round 2 and beyond like Pierce, Tolbert, etc, or later with a dynamic TE like Jelani Woods or someone. All that to say that without moving around too much I think that we've thankfully (with the returns of Rasul, De'Vondre, Tonyan, etc) put ourselves in a position where we have quite a few options and can afford to be somewhat flexible.

In general though I think that #1 and #3 are probably most likely. Unless we get to a point where all of those "top 5" guys are already gone I think we're going WR at #22 (and I'd be shocked if we made it out of the 1st without one) but I could certainly see getting to #28 and feeling like we've already got our biggest need addressed and that there's more value in moving down at that point.

 

[PikeBadger]

A question for you draft value experts...... Is the 28th pick a fair value for the 37th and 68th pick, in terms of trade?

 

[milani]

A question for you draft value experts...... Is the 28th pick a fair value for the 37th and 68th pick, in terms of trade?

It could be depending if you are satisfied with the one first rounder and if you do not want to spend that much in Round 1. 37 is not that far away from 28. Could you use 28 to move up even higher?

 

[PikeBadger]

It could be depending if you are satisfied with the one first rounder and if you do not want to spend that much in Round 1. 37 is not that far away from 28. Could you use 28 to move up even higher?

I was thinking more along the line of not having a prospect on the draft board that fits the value for pick 28. But yes, the round 1 cost is definitely something to consider with a tight cap. I personally think that the players generally chosen between picks 20-45 as having very similar physical ability.

 

[Schultz]

Highly unlikely you could get that for 28. The trade value chart that most teams use as a guide rates the #28 pick worth 209 pts. Where as 37 is ranked at 162 pts. and the value of the 68th pick is listed at 73 pts.

 

[tynimiller]

Highly unlikely you could get that for 28. The trade value chart that most teams use as a guide rates the #28 pick worth 209 pts. Where as 37 is ranked at 162 pts. and the value of the 68th pick is listed at 73 pts.

It would take a very motivated team, and I'd almost bet someone that is eyeing a QB that slipped...that position will drive teams higher in cost than any other over the years.

 

[PikeBadger]

Highly unlikely you could get that for 28. The trade value chart that most teams use as a guide rates the #28 pick worth 209 pts. Where as 37 is ranked at 162 pts. and the value of the 68th pick is listed at 73 pts.

Ok, my next option was going to be 40 and 71 picks.

Usually get some type of premium for trading out of the higher position

 

[McKnowledge]

I think Green Bay needs to make a move to get into the 12-15 range, preferably 15.

The teams beginning from 13 and on could conceivably switch courses and grab a WR.

I think there will be a run on WRs and Green Bay needs to get in front of it.

Green Bay sends the 22th, 28th, and the 59th pick to the Eagles for their 15th, 16th, and 124th picks.

Green Bay picks up Olave and Williams back to back. Alec Pierce gets drafted with the 124th pick.

 

[milani]

I think Green Bay needs to make a move to get into the 12-15 range, preferably 15.

The teams beginning from 13 and on could conceivably switch courses and grab a WR.

I think there will be a run on WRs and Green Bay needs to get in front of it.

Green Bay sends the 22th, 28th, and the 59th pick to the Eagles for their 15th, 16th, and 124th picks.

Green Bay picks up Olave and Williams back to back. Alec Pierce gets drafted with the 124th pick.

My next question is what do we do with Amari? Could anyone have as much of a disappointing rookie year when the opportunities were there due to Covid or injuries whether at receiver or returner?

 

[tynimiller]

My next question is what do we do with Amari? Could anyone have as much of a disappointing rookie year when the opportunities were there due to Covid or injuries whether at receiver or returner?

His opportunities were only at returner, his role in the offense wasn't there given Cobb's presence and being a rookie that appeared just not quite comfortable. Year two will be when we see more promise if there is some - even if he doesn't put up big figures, if he looks comfortable - his time will come.

 

[milani]

His opportunities were only at returner, his role in the offense wasn't there given Cobb's presence and being a rookie that appeared just not quite comfortable. Year two will be when we see more promise if there is some - even if he doesn't put up big figures, if he looks comfortable - his time will come.

Rodgers gave him some shots in the Arizona game in particular. You know Rodgers will shy away from him if he runs the wrong routes.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's a text of a Seahawk buddy of mine that knows I live in the draft process and such:

"(Your Gute)...Seahawks call you and propose the following the night of the draft (after GB doesn't add a WR before)...

Gute, we want Jaire as part of our restructure/reboot post-Wilson era. We would like to offer the following:

Our Round 1 #9 pick
DK Metcalf

For Your

Round 1 Pick #22
Jaire Alexander

What do you do?"

I had to think on this one for a bit...because here is the truth, I'm not trading up clear to 9th overall hypothetically unless I know who is off the board...to which he responded painting the full picture that these 8 players were picked:

Aidan Hutchinson
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Evan Neal
Kyle Hamilton
Travon Walker
Ikem Ekwonu
Charles Cross
Malik Willis

So now I knew why I'd be taking the trade player wise and that would be CB1 Ahmad Gardner to pair with Stokes and Rasul....honestly I would probably try to counter with the mindset of they need to add a 4th or so because Jaire is a Top 5 CB and holds tremendously more value than a Top 25 WR....but if its a quick no I'd probably take it.

What you say? In this situation, where we have added no one in FA and the draft comes and this exact thing happens.

 

[McKnowledge]

My next question is what do we do with Amari? Could anyone have as much of a disappointing rookie year when the opportunities were there due to Covid or injuries whether at receiver or returner?

Well...GB would keep Amari Rodgers.

He was rookie. 2nd year should be better.

Young receiving talent at an affordable cost along with plenty of catches available has to produce at least 1 competent WR.

These young receivers develop and thrive under Rodgers, and hopefully remain on the team as the team transitions to either Love or someone else.

A core of young receiving talent relatively that is affordable has to be appealing regardless what the future holds.

 

[Magooch]

I love Jaire but being able to turn him into DK Metcalf, Sauce Gardner, all while still keeping another 1st round pick and two 2nds...that would probably have to be a yes for me. Maybe ask for a little more from them just because of Metcalf's contract situation (though I guess to be fair they could just say the same regarding Jaire)

 

[OldSchool101]

while 2017 was an overall “miss” from a player trade out of Day 1, I did like the philosophy of the trade in general. We traded with Cleveland #33 for our #29 and we gained the first selection of the 4th round (#108)

IF we had 3-4 players that we deemed very equal before the opening of day 2, it’s crafty. The only thing you lose is the 5th year option, which we rarely use and is most beneficial at QB.

our #28 should get us
#33+106+#180 selections in a Jacksonville trade. That the opening pick of Day 3 and the opening pick in the 6th round. (We may have to part with a 7th rounder)

The main point I’ll point out here is
Twofold. There can only be a possibility of 4 selections before we’re on the clock. The probability of the exact players we have equally rated on our board being selected is less than 10%. We’d essentially still get our player…. But gain 2 quality selections in the meantime.

2. We could have the option of using those 2 selections to pair with our other Day 2 selections and move into a territory that has better success IF our guy is there Or
Just stand Pat and get 1-2 more dart throws at the draft board.
Our #59+#106= #51 range
a move that would all but Nail that WR, Edge etc..

Our #132+#180= #113 range
An area which should offer some good choices of “2nd tier” outside the top 5 type TE’s

#22,
#33,#51#53
#92
#113,#140
#160
2-7ths

While that may not seem like a huge change. It consolidates more selections into areas with a higher probability of success, with either zero or minuscule risk

 

[Schultz]

According to the trade chart the Packers would win in a trade of #28 for #33 & 106. A small enough win that Jax would do it for a player they really want. So I do not see them including pick #180.

 

[tynimiller]

According to the trade chart the Packers would win in a trade of #28 for #33 & 106. A small enough win that Jax would do it for a player they really want. So I do not see them including pick #180.

I concur, now maybe you pull a 7th out of them as well but not 180 IMO

 

[OldSchool101]

According to the trade chart the Packers would win in a trade of #28 for #33 & 106. A small enough win that Jax would do it for a player they really want. So I do not see them including pick #180.

Maybe it depends. Are you saying you’re interested in the trade then? It worked!!

I’m just going off the 2017 draft. We traded #29 for #33+#110
Obviously #28 for 106 is close but those Day 1 slots are volatile, so the switching of 6th n 7ths evens that part imo
We are talking switching a 180 for a 225 etc. I doubt that stops someone in a phone call to move up into Day 1 trade. . Id even throw in a 5 min shoulder massage during the “on deck” wait. If they don’t laugh at that?? They’ve got issues!

But yeah I see where you are coming from it’s all speculative. It really depends on which team desires which player or possibly even which one values a shoulder massage while on national tv. My guess? They tell us ok but stay away from their shoulders!

 

[tynimiller]

The more WR hungry teams that are being created, I'm beginning to think if you asked me to predict what happens this draft for GB at #22 it is more and more lining up to be a iDL/EDGE or a trade back type scenario IMO. It could even be a trade back inside the first type deal where KC (now rich with picks) swings up giving us #29 and some others. It may make some heads explode...

 

[Schultz]

Teams that I feel would use a 1st round pick on a WR are N.O., IND., & N.E. The next tier DET, ATL, HOU, CHI have so many other needs a WR may not be top priority. 2nd round teams I have as NYJ,JAX,NYG,WSH,PHL,ARZ,CLV,KC.
The caveat to this is I have not looked up each of these teams picks yet. I will try to later today. For example I do not believe the Bears have a first round pick.

 

[Magooch]

So I had been thinking about this idea a little, particularly as it relates to which teams ahead of us are perhaps viewing WR as a "primary" need and I think there are really not a ton...Realistically I only see maybe 4-ish teams ahead of us that would perhaps view WR as a top need that they would spend a first on (ahead of any other needs, of course). For me that is perhaps Atlanta, Washington, New Orleans, and maybe Philly would spend one of their firsts on one. Detroit really could stand to reinforce that position too but I don't see any way they go WR at #2 when they have other needs that would probably be a better value there. IMO Philly, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Washington all really have a lot of needs all over so some of them may take a BPA type of approach, but like I said with a lot of picks it wouldn't be surprising to see Philly spend one at WR. They need someone else to go with DeVonta.

If I had to take out my crystal ball I'd guess that probably 3 WR are taken before we're up. And it seems like that will most likely be London and Wilson as the top 2 (not necessarily in that order), but after that seems a lot more up for debate. But, all that said, at 22 I suspect we should be able to have our pick of one of Burks, Dotson, Olave, Watson, etc and won't really need to trade around to land one of those guys, if we're convinced. Of course if there is a big run or we are sold on one of the top 2 guys we could always trade up to get them I guess, but as I've said before I'd truthfully rather have a couple of shots at it. This class is definitely deep at WR, but at the same time I don't see either of Wilson/London being a top-level WR prospect like a JaMarr Chase or similar.

Then between 22 and 28 there are a few more teams that could maybe go WR (Arizona, Dallas, Buffalo, Tennessee, Tampa) depending on how the board falls. I know there's a case to be made for taking a top DL or OL if they fall to us, but at the same time I feel like it wouldn't be outside of the realm of possibility for us to pass on a WR at 22 only to have most of the top options off the board by the time we're up again at 28. And then by the time we're up again you've got KC at 29/30, Detroit again (twice), the Jets (twice), Chicago (twice), Indy, Cleveland, and all of Washington, New Orleans, KC, Philly up again before we come in at 53. All of them conceivably have some needs at WR, so unless we're looking to move up from 53...we might be looking at a lot of leftovers and scraps at that point.

 

[milani]

So I had been thinking about this idea a little, particularly as it relates to which teams ahead of us are perhaps viewing WR as a "primary" need and I think there are really not a ton...Realistically I only see maybe 4-ish teams ahead of us that would perhaps view WR as a top need that they would spend a first on (ahead of any other needs, of course). For me that is perhaps Atlanta, Washington, New Orleans, and maybe Philly would spend one of their firsts on one. Detroit really could stand to reinforce that position too but I don't see any way they go WR at #2 when they have other needs that would probably be a better value there. IMO Philly, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Washington all really have a lot of needs all over so some of them may take a BPA type of approach, but like I said with a lot of picks it wouldn't be surprising to see Philly spend one at WR. They need someone else to go with DeVonta.

If I had to take out my crystal ball I'd guess that probably 3 WR are taken before we're up. And it seems like that will most likely be London and Wilson as the top 2 (not necessarily in that order), but after that seems a lot more up for debate. But, all that said, at 22 I suspect we should be able to have our pick of one of Burks, Dotson, Olave, Watson, etc and won't really need to trade around to land one of those guys, if we're convinced. Of course if there is a big run or we are sold on one of the top 2 guys we could always trade up to get them I guess, but as I've said before I'd truthfully rather have a couple of shots at it. This class is definitely deep at WR, but at the same time I don't see either of Wilson/London being a top-level WR prospect like a JaMarr Chase or similar.

Then between 22 and 28 there are a few more teams that could maybe go WR (Arizona, Dallas, Buffalo, Tennessee, Tampa) depending on how the board falls. I know there's a case to be made for taking a top DL or OL if they fall to us, but at the same time I feel like it wouldn't be outside of the realm of possibility for us to pass on a WR at 22 only to have most of the top options off the board by the time we're up again at 28. And then by the time we're up again you've got KC at 29/30, Detroit again (twice), the Jets (twice), Chicago (twice), Indy, Cleveland, and all of Washington, New Orleans, KC, Philly up again before we come in at 53. All of them conceivably have some needs at WR, so unless we're looking to move up from 53...we might be looking at a lot of leftovers and scraps at that point.

I think if we have done nothing for this position in free agency by that time I say move up. But I do think we need to sign a veteran and add a top rookie as well. Losing Adams was one thing. But we lost Scantling as well. And among Amari, Winfree, Blair, Taylor, and Gifford I just cannot see much production. We have to have 2 more receivers who can start opening day.

 

[Toad]

Yes definitely need a veteran receiver at least one if not two. Rookies always need some time to mature and learn the routes. Need to get some veteran receiver (s) to plug in right away.