Many have said we are looking out 1 year. Why? Where are we so weak?

[gopkrs]

I was very happy when we signed the bookends Smith Bros. But to be honest, I don't know much about them. Has anyone followed either of them? Will they be able to put consistent pressure on the QB and/or open up the middle for pressure? I am assuming that Gute knew what he was doing and these guys are going to be very good for us. To me, they are the keys to the D.

 

[brandon2348]

I was very happy when we signed the bookends Smith Bros. But to be honest, I don't know much about them. Has anyone followed either of them? Will they be able to put consistent pressure on the QB and/or open up the middle for pressure? I am assuming that Gute knew what he was doing and these guys are going to be very good for us. To me, they are the keys to the D.

Gute went out and signed POTENTIAL with both the Smith's. Neither has registered an All-Pro or Pro Bowl ranking up to this point. Both have flashed but neither has put it all together for an entire season.

The hope is these additions along with Gary and what was already in place(Clark, Daniels) that collectively the unit and pass rush will improve up front. On paper it should improve but once again it is a wait and see. There is reason for optimism but IMO it will ultimately come down to how the defense holds up to injury and Pettine's ability to get these guys to play together. They really need Kevin King to stay healthy.

 

[PackAttack12]

Any time you have a healthy Aaron Rodgers behind center, you have a chance at a Super Bowl. He's proven that consistently over the years.

But is it really that likely in LaFleur's first season? Not in my opinion. I'd love to be wrong, but I think there will be something of a transition year this season, and that the Packers will have a solid 3-4 seasons of championship contention, and hopefully if all falls the way we'd like, we'll snag another couple of Lombardi's before Rodgers hangs it up.

I like the additions made defensively. In Pettine's second year, if we don't see at the very least a top 12 unit, I'd be disappointed. The question will be, how quickly will Rodgers and the offense adjust?

I'm thinking along the lines of 10 wins and an early playoff exit. But again, when you have that guy...there's always a chance.

 

[gopkrs]

I am just not giving King that much credit so that our D depends on him. First of all, I don't think he is that great a player and... well actually that is enough.

 

[gbgary]

I am just not giving King that much credit so that our D depends on him. First of all, I don't think he is that great a player and... well actually that is enough.

i agree but if he goes down the backups are worse and they don't need that happening again. same thing martinez. he's good, not great, but there's no one behind him.

 

[gbgary]

I’ve heard that for years now. I really would like nothing more then for the Packers to have a dominant defense and with everything they have invested they absolutely should. Whether to blame Ted Thompson picks or Dom Capers scheme it hasn’t worked out really since 2010. Were almost at 10 YEARS of rebuilding a defense that never really recovered from the Nick Collins injury amongst other things.

IMO the Wildcard to this defense being successful this year comes down to Kevin King staying healthy and as I stated in my original post “i’m not holding my breath.”

It looks good on paper at the moment but once guys start grabbing there hamstrings and groins which has been a yearly occurrence it could become mediocre once again very quickly. At that point even a moderate injury to Adams would become catastrophic and we once again go as Aaron Rodgers goes.

i agree. they did a poor job rebuilding the D so they had to keep at it. it looks like they've made positive strides this time. we'll see. depth is an issue at a lot of positions. that's what happens when the QB takes up so much cap room. king, martinez, bakhtiari, adams, rodgers...are all out there with pretty much nothing behind them.

 

[Poppa San]

The tricky part is that other teams, especially in the NFC have also improved their rosters.

Every year, every team says this. Every year it is true for a few teams. Every year it is hit and miss as to which teams.

 

[mradtke66]

that's what happens when the QB takes up so much cap room.

This is a thing I've been kicking around in my head, so hear me out before you smash disagree.

I don't think a quarterback making a significant amount of money handcuffs your team.

The handcuffing and the large salary are symptoms of having a quarterback worth the giant contract.

To elaborate....

May people, including you, gbgary, think that if we had more money, we could sign more, better players. Or we would have better depth. I don't think that is the case. Sure, maybe one or two players might be signed, but who? And how good would they really be?

It really comes down to the draft. Once you find that great quarterback, you suddenly start drafting later and later. Once he's a 20 million dollar man (or more), you're (presumably) drafting in the late 20s each round. Your odds of getting that next great player at another position take a hit. It gets harder to stack good drafts back to back. And then it gets harder to repeat.

Free Agency is more of a band-aid over misses, bad drafts, people retiring early, etc.

Sure, there is the occasional "cap casualty" cut, but most of those are players that aren't valued by their franchises. Hyde was this sort of player. He was good, but in the FA market, he could get more than we wanted to pay. We could have paid him what he wanted, but we had him pegged as the backup nickel, no. 3 safety. Not a starter.

In short, it's more of a team building and draft problem, not strictly speaking a cap problem. Though at some point, there is a too-much-money-for-one-person line, but it's a lot higher than Rodgers' current salary.

And perhaps more than that, there just aren't enough good players playing that are available to sign each off season.

Consider: If Rodgers' cap hit for 2019-2022 was the veteran minimum, which additional players A) Would you have tried to sign B) Would have been interested in player for the Packers?

 

[rmontro]

I’ve heard that for years now. I really would like nothing more then for the Packers to have a dominant defense and with everything they have invested they absolutely should. Whether to blame Ted Thompson picks or Dom Capers scheme it hasn’t worked out really since 2010. Were almost at 10 YEARS of rebuilding a defense that never really recovered from the Nick Collins injury amongst other things.

That's the truth there. I also agree with your earlier comment about not holding your breath. We have reasons for optimism, because we have a new team in place running things. But I'm not counting my chickens until they show me something.

 

[OldSchool101]

I believe it takes continuity to make a Championship team, especially at positions like OL, WR, the Defensive Secondary, ST, etc..
While it’s certainly possible, the chances of it all coming together after several major coaching/scheme changes seems unlikely year 1 in a new system. However looking around this team, we will have a lot of 2020 3rd-4th year players who will have a full year in the new system. Particularly at the skill positions.
I definitely think we can (and we will) give some teams a scare this season, but I like our chances once we add 1-2 more proven FA veterans. Plus in 2020, I can see us finally going after a couple of early Offensive picks to protect Aaron and give him more top end weapons to utilize.
I see realistically either a 10-6 season with several losses being very close and then a short playoff run or with this schedule? Maybe an 11-5 season with some good fortune and a trip back to the NFC game. I’d be pleased with that because I think we’re going to be better established in 2020 and we have better competition in the NFC North than we’ve had for a few years. It’s very possible we see only 1 NFC North team finish below .500 in 2019 (Detroit or Vikings)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The new coaching staff is going to be an improvement...period. No what ifs or pick and choosing negative scenarios. Evaluate the team as is.

It's tough to evaluate the team without them having played a single snap in a completely new scheme. On paper the roster seems to be improved but quality depth is definitely a question mark at several positions.

I think the team is ready for a deep run now and was last season and the season before. As others have said, I agree that MM lost his edge after the Seattle playoff debacle several seasons ago and last year was the culmination of that. There were just enough top flight players yet to make a run. The staff was just wound too tight to make the best calls. I expect a run-the-table to finish the season type of year coming up.

The Packers didn't have enough talent to make a run over the past few years. The only reason they came close in 2016 was Rodgers playing out of his mind.

Let's be honest what team in the NFC truly scares you? Yes each team has their own advantages and weaknesses, but honestly what team do you honestly believe that we can't go up against and beat them?

I think the Packers are capable of defeating every team in the NFC on any given day but doubt they will be able to win enough of those games to actually make it to the Super Bowl this year.

NO? Yes they have Brees, but A. He's more prone to turn the ball over in comparison to Rodgers. B. He definitely is starting to decline. C. Rodgers can out duel him any day of the week.

Brees had the highest passer rating of his career in 2018 while only throwing five interceptions all season.

While it’s extremely early, we seem to be starting to get our swagger back and that’s something I haven’t seen for a few years.

It's way too early to make an assessment like that. They haven't even taken a preseason snap.

there's the new offense (with rodgers not being fully invested in it...rmfe), and the associated learning curve.

Geez, for the umpteenth time at least wait before Rodgers takes a snap in a regular season game before making that assumption.

I was very happy when we signed the bookends Smith Bros. But to be honest, I don't know much about them. Has anyone followed either of them? Will they be able to put consistent pressure on the QB and/or open up the middle for pressure? I am assuming that Gute knew what he was doing and these guys are going to be very good for us. To me, they are the keys to the D.

Zadarius and Preston ranked in the top 30 in total pressures in the league last season. With both having had their best season in 2018 and still being young there's definitely potential to have a huge impact.

king, martinez, bakhtiari, adams, rodgers...are all out there with pretty much nothing behind them.

There's no team in the league capable of adequately replacing an elite quarterback, receiver or left tackle.

I definitely think we can (and we will) give some teams a scare this season, but I like our chances once we add 1-2 more proven FA veterans.

The Packers might not have enough cap space to sign proven veterans next offseason.

 

[PackAttack12]

Brees had the highest passer rating of his career in 2018 while only throwing five interceptions all season.

Just a little bit of pushback here. Brees was noticeably less effective in the last few games of the season, at least to my eye. I'll be interested to see how he performs in 2019.

 

[brandon2348]

Any time you have a healthy Aaron Rodgers behind center, you have a chance at a Super Bowl. He's proven that consistently over the years.

But is it really that likely in LaFleur's first season? Not in my opinion. I'd love to be wrong, but I think there will be something of a transition year this season, and that the Packers will have a solid 3-4 seasons of championship contention, and hopefully if all falls the way we'd like, we'll snag another couple of Lombardi's before Rodgers hangs it up.

I like the additions made defensively. In Pettine's second year, if we don't see at the very least a top 12 unit, I'd be disappointed. The question will be, how quickly will Rodgers and the offense adjust?

I'm thinking along the lines of 10 wins and an early playoff exit. But again, when you have that guy...there's always a chance.

That's not the Aaron Rodgers I witnessed the past two seasons though. Ever since Barr landed on his shoulder something has not been right. People can blame MM all they want but go back and watch the tape. The miss-throws were an issue. I don't know how much more wide open LaFleur is gonna have the receivers. Wide open is still wide open.

You either believe Rodgers undermined his coach or you believe he missed routine throws. Either way we have cause for concern. The injuries have piled up and we have done next to zero to build him a supporting cast.

 

[elcid]

Our roster is imo mostly lacking in

1. Wide Receiver Depth
2. Inside Linebacker Depth
3. Secondary Depth

Injuries to either Adams (especially Adams), Martinez or Alexander could really derail our season (leaving the obvious of Aarod getting injured out). Both lines and the RB corps look good to me, and I think our pass rushers and TE's will be able to hold up.

Like @brandon2348, im less confident in Rodgers these days than most posters. Sure, he has been a very special QB, but two recent down years are worrisome. And sure, injuries have held him down these seasons. But the man is turning 36 upcoming season. Who says that he has not started regressing already?

I really like what we did with our D given the resources. However, I would have liked to have at least 1 more competent WR being brought to GB. Then maybe, I could see a SB appearance happening. Now, I am confident that we are able to reach the playoffs. But to win it all? Not so much

 

[gopkrs]

Getting into the playoffs may be the tough part. Once we are in; we can win it. How in the world can anyone predict a quick exit?

 

[elcid]

Getting into the playoffs may be the tough part. Once we are in; we can win it. How in the world can anyone predict a quick exit?

Am I predicting a quick exit? I am merely saying that while I find the quality of our team to be enough to get us to the playoffs (and perhaps even survive a few games), I am very doubtful that we will have one of the strongest rosters. Hence I deem the chance small that we will bring the Lombardi Trophy home

 

[HardRightEdge]

Roster Strengths

• DL/OLB: Talent, youth, depth, durability, scheme flexibility; only notable injury concern is Daniels' foot injury that put him on IR to finish 2018. Better, if not elite, performance from these groups could take pressure off the back end and mitigate the vulnerabilites at the DB and ILB noted below.

Roster Vulnerabilities

• QB: The first and foremost, 3 major injuries in last 6 years and in each of the last 2; question of mind meld with the play caller for peace in the kingdom; lack of reliable backup.
• RB: Jones presents a high injury risk wth repeated knee sprains under low touch count; Williams is solid and durable but has not demonstrated big play threat; rookie performance risk.
• OL: Bulaga injury risk; performance risk at LG with rookie or the serviceable Taylor; lack of depth where one injury might require a line shuffle; the 4th. year jump needed from Spriggs for depth is rare.
• WR: Injury risk with Allison coming off groin surgery injury; Allison possible "breakout" in 2018 requires confirmation; developmental risk with a second year jump needed from at least one of the possible #3's.
• TE: Age and decline risk with Graham and Lewis; developmental risk with rookie and second year UDFA.
• ILB: Performance risk with Burks in the increasingly critical coverage ILB role Amos who lost the job to Whitehead at one point; unproven youth at depth. Burks' failure to make the jump might force Amos into this role as with Burnett-over-Jones in 2017, thereby weakening the safety position.
• CB: Injury risk with King's chronic dislocated shoulders and a 2018 season-ending hamstring injury; King performance risk on the perimeter where he has yet to play up to his draft status; performance risk with Jackson needing that second year jump at the increasingly important nickel corner role with an open issue as to his fit at that position; decline-with-age risk with Williams as the swing man backup at corner/safety.
• S: Performance risk with a rookie FS; reliable if merely serviceable depth with Williams at FS with age risk; unproven depth at SS; Jones disgruntlement and performance risk puts him on the bubble.
• Defensive scheme: Pettine espouses players-over-scheme and flexibility based on the talent on hand and the opponent match-ups. The first nickel snap of the season is likely to include 5 new "starters" where nickel/dime amounts to 70-80% of snaps: P. Smith and Gary at OLB, Z. Smith at DT, Amos and Savage at S. Burks given the ILB job amounts to a 6th. While there is no shortage of talent among these players, how well they jell with each other in these roles remains to be seen.

If the majority of these vulnerabilites do not materialize, especially the "jumps" and solid rookie performances needed from young players to evidence stacked Gutekunst draft classes and for depth, and the A. Jones, Bulage and King injury risks do not materialize, then certainly this team can qualify as a legitmate championship contender.

That's a big ask.

 

[gbgary]

There's no team in the league capable of adequately replacing an elite quarterback, receiver or left tackle.

cle, kc, the rams, and any other team with a very good qb on a rookie deal, can put good veteran depth behind key positions if they want to. phi did it and won a SB. cle, for example, just keeps adding starters while they can instead. mayfield will need a contract someday and they'll have to start dismantling the team like sea had to a few years ago. but while they have the chance to truly go for it they're going to do it. hitting on the draft is the main thing. dal has done that but has been unable to capitalize on it. they're going to have some very tough decisions soon. everyone with a $30m+ qb this year and next are just pretenders for SB's. it would take a miracle for any of them to win one.

 

[gopkrs]

Am I predicting a quick exit? I am merely saying that while I find the quality of our team to be enough to get us to the playoffs (and perhaps even survive a few games), I am very doubtful that we will have one of the strongest rosters. Hence I deem the chance small that we will bring the Lombardi Trophy home

I don't know elcid, are you? Great name by the way. I just think if we are playing well enough to get in; then we can do it. Calling an early exit is a bit too specific for me.

 

[gopkrs]

Roster Strengths

• DL/OLB: Talent, youth, depth, durability, scheme flexibility; only notable injury concern is Daniels' foot injury that put him on IR to finish 2018. Better, if not elite, performance from these groups could take pressure off the back end and mitigate the vulnerabilites at the DB and ILB noted below.

Roster Vulnerabilities

• QB: The first and foremost, 3 major injuries in last 6 years and in each of the last 2; question of mind meld with the play caller for peace in the kingdom; lack of reliable backup.
• RB: Jones presents a high injury risk wth repeated knee sprains under low touch count; Williams is solid and durable but has not demonstrated big play threat; rookie performance risk.
• OL: Bulaga injury risk; performance risk at LG with rookie or the serviceable Taylor; lack of depth where one injury might require a line shuffle; the 4th. year jump needed from Spriggs for depth is rare.
• WR: Injury risk with Allison coming off groin surgery injury; Allison possible "breakout" in 2018 requires confirmation; developmental risk with a second year jump needed from at least one of the possible #3's.
• TE: Age and decline risk with Graham and Lewis; developmental risk with rookie and second year UDFA.
• ILB: Performance risk with Burks in the increasingly critical coverage ILB role Amos who lost the job to Whitehead at one point; unproven youth at depth. Burks' failure to make the jump might force Amos into this role as with Burnett-over-Jones in 2017, thereby weakening the safety position.
• CB: Injury risk with King's chronic dislocated shoulders and a 2018 season-ending hamstring injury; King performance risk on the perimeter where he has yet to play up to his draft status; performance risk with Jackson needing that second year jump at the increasingly important nickel corner role with an open issue as to his fit at that position; decline-with-age risk with Williams as the swing man backup at corner/safety.
• S: Performance risk with a rookie FS; reliable if merely serviceable depth with Williams at FS with age risk; unproven depth at SS; Jones disgruntlement and performance risk puts him on the bubble.
• Defensive scheme: Pettine espouses players-over-scheme and flexibility based on the talent on hand and the opponent match-ups. The first nickel snap of the season is likely to include 5 new "starters" where nickel/dime amounts to 70-80% of snaps: P. Smith and Gary at OLB, Z. Smith at DT, Amos and Savage at S. Burks given the ILB job amounts to a 6th. While there is no shortage of talent among these players, how well they jell with each other in these roles remains to be seen.

If the majority of these vulnerabilites do not materialize, especially the "jumps" and solid rookie performances needed from young players to evidence stacked Gutekunst draft classes and for depth, and the A. Jones, Bulage and King injury risks do not materialize, then certainly this team can qualify as a legitmate championship contender.

That's a big ask.

What happens when you make vulnerability charts for other teams?

 

[HardRightEdge]

What happens when you make vulnerability charts for other teams?

I'll leave that to you to evaluate the current state of affairs with the 31 other teams. As a general observation of past championship contenders, I don't think it fares very well.

The 2017 Eagles were stacked. The 2018 Chiefs and Rams had vulnerabilities in the defensive back end but were otherwise strong. The Saints elevated with a couple of great drafts. Belichick does what he does that nobody else does, making lemonade out of seeming lemons.

If you can illustrate a dilution of talent among recent contenders, an abnormal increase in parity via greater talent distribution, then OK, fewer vulnerabilities need to be mitigated. In the final analysis, this is a highly unusual state of affairs in any one season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I was very happy when we signed the bookends Smith Bros. But to be honest, I don't know much about them. Has anyone followed either of them? Will they be able to put consistent pressure on the QB and/or open up the middle for pressure? I am assuming that Gute knew what he was doing and these guys are going to be very good for us. To me, they are the keys to the D.

One observation: For the moment, referring to Z. Smith as a "bookend" might well turn out to be a misrepresentation. In a 70-80% nickel/dime league, you may see Z. Smith at DT as much or more than at OLB. That will depend on the extent to which Gary proves up at OLB which is where Pettine has stated will be his starting point, implying future consideration at DT. As the season wears on, Gary at DT and Z. Smith at edge might prove more optimal, though I think that's more a Gary year 2 possibility.

Some portion of Z. Smith's large contract is attributable to this positional flexibility, and that positional flexibility accounts for expending that high pick on Gary instead of another position of need.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I’ve heard that for years now. I really would like nothing more then for the Packers to have a dominant defense and with everything they have invested they absolutely should. Whether to blame Ted Thompson picks or Dom Capers scheme it hasn’t worked out really since 2010. Were almost at 10 YEARS of rebuilding a defense that never really recovered from the Nick Collins injury amongst other things.

IMO the Wildcard to this defense being successful this year comes down to Kevin King staying healthy and as I stated in my original post “i’m not holding my breath.”

It looks good on paper at the moment but once guys start grabbing there hamstrings and groins which has been a yearly occurrence it could become mediocre once again very quickly. At that point even a moderate injury to Adams would become catastrophic and we once again go as Aaron Rodgers goes.

As a follow-up, I just received a PFF email linking to their 2019 O-Line prospectus rankings.

The Packer 8th. ranked assessment seems fair, a grouping most would consider among the more solid assuming the Bulaga injury bug does not bite again. However, the Eagles, Cowboys, Steelers, Colts, Patriots and Saints are accorded a higher ranking. This group of teams has some notable commonalities. 5 playoff teams among them, the Steelers a close miss, and with the exception of the Cowboys, immobile QBs where maintaining O-Line strength represents knowing what side of the bread is buttered.

Recent winning habits and coaching continuity provide a higher starting floor among these teams.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Getting into the playoffs may be the tough part. Once we are in; we can win it. How in the world can anyone predict a quick exit?

I just think if we are playing well enough to get in; then we can do it. Calling an early exit is a bit too specific for me.

Why is recognizing the possibility of an early exit from the playoffs much different than calling for a deep run? If the Packers sneak in as a late seed, it probably means they aren't as good as most of the other teams and will have to also play on the road. Sure they did it in 2010, so it can happen, but I have seen many great teams make an early exit from the playoffs. "On any given Sunday...."

 

[Dblbogey]

I think the team is ready for a deep run now and was last season and the season before. As others have said, I agree that MM lost his edge after the Seattle playoff debacle several seasons ago and last year was the culmination of that. There were just enough top flight players yet to make a run. The staff was just wound too tight to make the best calls. I expect a run-the-table to finish the season type of year coming up.

We were weak in a lot of areas last year. Not defending MM, it was time to go, but no coach could have won with last year's talent level.