Latest Mock...this is far too good to occur

[OldSchool101]

Its tempting to say that in a normal year you only get 1 first round pick anyway so why not trade 12 and 30 to go up and get someone like Bosa, Allen or Williams at #5 if one should happen to slip, which could very well happen (just using the numbers from the chart, that is assuming TB would make the trade. Might even have to throw in a late round pick to sweeten the deal.

In my estimation. There’s a 30-40% chance one of those players slide past #4. The #6-#7 overall is an area where it’s just not nearly as costly to get a true game changer and a dual benefit of leapfrogging Detroit. No need to mortgage our future but having Quinnen Williams gives us pressure up the middle. He’s a true tactical power machine and constantly required double teams in college and still was too much to handle.
Him and Clark would be a formidable pair to have and we could lock them both down for the next 5 years and most of Rodgers remaining tenure.
Not to mention it allows us to negotiate big Mike to a Cap friendly deal going forward (IF he proves himself in 2019) or it allows us to walk away
This is a move that was set up by our 2018 craftiness in the draft and would make that trade back in 2018 totally worth it.
Again, it’s just another avenue that we should be prepared for if the right guy slips.
I’ll even switch my avatar if we pull that off.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Lol, no. Just did it for the sake of argument. Should use our 12th and one fourth round and get Quennin Williams or Devin White. But Idk much about Gutz mindset.

The Packers would most likely only be able to move up a single spot by trading their fourth round pick along with #12. That won't be good enough to select Williams.

Just putting it out there. We don’t necessarily need to add WAY more quantity in this years draft, instead we could pay some of that draft capital forward.

The Packers have to address too many pressing needs for it to make sense this year.

 

[tynimiller]

Given the future costs of the Smith's contracts...I really want us to still find a stud edge guy because we cannot afford both Smiths going into their 3rd or so year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Given the future costs of the Smith's contracts...I really want us to still find a stud edge guy because we cannot afford both Smiths going into their 3rd or so year.

The Packers can afford to keep both Smiths for the length of the contract as long as they produce up to expectations.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers can afford to keep both Smiths for the length of the contract as long as they produce up to expectations.

Okay, the 4 guys we signed in FA + AR in about 3 years is going to breech the $90Million figure just for those 5 players. I don't see this happening. I hope I'm wrong but that is a TON of money in just 5 guys.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Okay, the 4 guys we signed in FA + AR in about 3 years is going to breech the $90Million figure just for those 5 players. I don't see this happening. I hope I'm wrong but that is a TON of money in just 5 guys.

There's no doubt that's a lot of money (don't forget Adams counting $16.6 million toward the cap in 2021) but as long as those guys perform up to expectations the Packers should be able to field a competitive team.

 

[tynimiller]

There's no doubt that's a lot of money (don't forget Adams counting $16.6 million toward the cap in 2021) but as long as those guys perform up to expectations the Packers should be able to field a competitive team.

I'll respond this way....I pray I never get to say "Told you so" on this...because then no doubt we're both very happy.

 

[green&goldsoul]

Why are all the EXPERTS so adamant about us picking a TE at 12? It's ludicrous. Jimmy Graham is going to be our starter, period. We've paid too much for him not to be. So why spend a 12th overall on a NONstarter? First rounders are starters, no exceptions. So TE can be addressed in later rounds because he's going to develop anyway, on the bench.

 

[green&goldsoul]

Defense was addressed in free agency but should also be addressed in first round. The formula is simple. (Being that we should have beat the Rams last year, a super bowl team.) We stop teams from scoring, Aaron Rodgers wins the game for us. Regardless of receiving core or TE or RBs. We hold teams under 24 points a game we go undefeated.

 

[Dantés]

Why are all the EXPERTS so adamant about us picking a TE at 12? It's ludicrous. Jimmy Graham is going to be our starter, period. We've paid too much for him not to be. So why spend a 12th overall on a NONstarter? First rounders are starters, no exceptions. So TE can be addressed in later rounds because he's going to develop anyway, on the bench.

A couple things.

I don't think you need to get worked up about what the "experts" think. It's very common for certain teams to get matched up with certain players in mocks this time of year. It doesn't anything.

While I like Hockenson and would be down to draft him in the 1st, I doubt they actually do it unless they first trade down.

While Graham, if healthy, would probably lead the TE's in snap counts, a good rookie will most certainly not ride the bench. Last year as OC of the Titans, LaFleur's offense was on the field for 986 snaps. Collectively, his tight ends accounted for 1,502 snaps. What this tells us is that they used 2+ TE's roughly half the time. And that was true even despite the fact that Delanie Walker landed on IR after week one and their snap count leader at TE, Jonnu Smith, only accounted for 611 snaps. Had Walker been healthy, that 1502 figure would likely be larger.

If they drafted Hockenson, it would not be outside the realm of possibility for him to account for ~600+ snaps, and that's without any injury in front of him. That's enough to make a very sizable impact. When you consider that in conjunction with the fact that TE is a huge need after the 2019 season (when Robert Tonyan will be the only one left on the roster in all likelihood), it can make some sense that they would invest high draft capital in a TE.

I also think you could find plenty of "exceptions" to the idea that 1st rounders need to be starters right away. If our first round pick must "start" immediately then the only position they can really target under those rules is safety and perhaps WILL (and a 2nd true LB plays about as much on defense as a TE2 does on offense with LaFleur). An OT would be behind Bakh and Bulaga, an OG would be behind Taylor and Turner, an iDL would be behind Clark and Daniels, a WR would be behind Adams and a whole slew of players competing to start across from him, a RB would be behind Jones, a LB would be behind Martinez, an ED would be behind the Smith bros, and a CB would be behind Alexander, King, Williams, etc.

Are we really going to rule all those positions out because there isn't a clear path to "starting" week one?

 

[OldSchool101]

No that’s very true. It’s also likely that an OT would be behind Bulaga as another example.

The more I think about it, I just want to see us get the basics down first. Protecting Aaron Rodgers has to be front and center and a superior blocking TE does fit that mold to a degree. The fact Hock can roll out and is the heavyweight champion of moving the chains on 3rd down isn’t anything to sneeze at either. That also fits the objective because it keeps the plays quick by getting the ball out and utilizes field position. We have to go high probability on 3rd n 3 not throw the bomb out of frustration.
Those are two of our weaknesses that have caused issues. The other is we haven’t had the deep threat receiver. We sorta tried to answer that call last year but almost as an afterthought.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The formula is simple. (Being that we should have beat the Rams last year, a super bowl team.) We stop teams from scoring, Aaron Rodgers wins the game for us. Regardless of receiving core or TE or RBs. We hold teams under 24 points a game we go undefeated.

Did you watch the Packers struggle on offense with Rodgers starting every game in 2018??? The team definitely needs to improve the talent around #12 in this year's draft as well.

 

[green&goldsoul]

Did you watch the Packers struggle on offense with Rodgers starting every game in 2018??? The team definitely needs to improve the talent around #12 in this year's draft as well.

Agreed...with exception. Any other QB wouldn't (shouldn't) have been playing. So I can't fault 12 for a bad season. He missed alot of open receivers. But with his injury plus rookies across the board, I chalk last year as a wash. McCarthy refused to run the ball. Jimmy Graham was lost. This will be a better offensive year. Barring no injuries. With or without key offensive add-ons. Slot receiver maybe being the exception.

 

[green&goldsoul]

A couple things.

I don't think you need to get worked up about what the "experts" think. It's very common for certain teams to get matched up with certain players in mocks this time of year. It doesn't anything.

While I like Hockenson and would be down to draft him in the 1st, I doubt they actually do it unless they first trade down.

While Graham, if healthy, would probably lead the TE's in snap counts, a good rookie will most certainly not ride the bench. Last year as OC of the Titans, LaFleur's offense was on the field for 986 snaps. Collectively, his tight ends accounted for 1,502 snaps. What this tells us is that they used 2+ TE's roughly half the time. And that was true even despite the fact that Delanie Walker landed on IR after week one and their snap count leader at TE, Jonnu Smith, only accounted for 611 snaps. Had Walker been healthy, that 1502 figure would likely be larger.

If they drafted Hockenson, it would not be outside the realm of possibility for him to account for ~600+ snaps, and that's without any injury in front of him. That's enough to make a very sizable impact. When you consider that in conjunction with the fact that TE is a huge need after the 2019 season (when Robert Tonyan will be the only one left on the roster in all likelihood), it can make some sense that they would invest high draft capital in a TE.

I also think you could find plenty of "exceptions" to the idea that 1st rounders need to be starters right away. If our first round pick must "start" immediately then the only position they can really target under those rules is safety and perhaps WILL (and a 2nd true LB plays about as much on defense as a TE2 does on offense with LaFleur). An OT would be behind Bakh and Bulaga, an OG would be behind Taylor and Turner, an iDL would be behind Clark and Daniels, a WR would be behind Adams and a whole slew of players competing to start across from him, a RB would be behind Jones, a LB would be behind Martinez, an ED would be behind the Smith bros, and a CB would be behind Alexander, King, Williams, etc.

Are we really going to rule all those positions out because there isn't a clear path to "starting" week one?

Competition is key. Hockenson won't have that. He'll just be handed the keys after Jimmy leaves. No his fault of course. But with only one other TE on the roster in 2020, just don't like that for the 12th over all pick. Drafting two late round TEs with the the 10 picks will make for health competition to find our next starter or starters. I guess I just value defense more, especially with AR 12 on the other side. ILB or DL or OL at 12th pick. Either could potentially start or be rotated for scenario. Safety a need as well. But value wise, addressable after 12th pick.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Agreed...with exception. Any other QB wouldn't (shouldn't) have been playing. So I can't fault 12 for a bad season. He missed alot of open receivers. But with his injury plus rookies across the board, I chalk last year as a wash. McCarthy refused to run the ball. Jimmy Graham was lost. This will be a better offensive year. Barring no injuries. With or without key offensive add-ons. Slot receiver maybe being the exception.

The point I was trying to make is that the offense won't automatically perform at an elite level just because of Rodgers being the starting quarterback. The unit needs to have more talent than last season and the scheme has to improve as well.

Drafting two late round TEs with the the 10 picks will make for health competition to find our next starter or starters.

That approach would most likely result in the Packers needing an upgrade at tight end next offseason once again.

 

[green&goldsoul]

Dream Mock
Trade with Jacksonville 12th plus second fourth round plus seventh round for 7th overall pick.
Devin White at 7
Darnell Savage or Nasir Adderley at 30
A.J. Brown or Andy Isabella or Parris Campbell at 44
OL
TE
OL
DT
RB

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Competition is key. Hockenson won't have that. He'll just be handed the keys after Jimmy leaves. No his fault of course. But with only one other TE on the roster in 2020, just don't like that for the 12th over all pick. Drafting two late round TEs with the the 10 picks will make for health competition to find our next starter or starters. I guess I just value defense more, especially with AR 12 on the other side. ILB or DL or OL at 12th pick. Either could potentially start or be rotated for scenario. Safety a need as well. But value wise, addressable after 12th pick.

While I understand what you are saying, the problem is, if those late round TE's competing for the starting job aren't that talented to begin with, you probably end up with a not so great starter, no matter how hard they battle to win the job. That sounds like the approach TT took to fill the position for too man years. The closest he came to having a solid TE was using a 3rd round pick on Finley or signing Cook in Free agency.

 

[green&goldsoul]

The point I was trying to make is that the offense won't automatically perform at an elite level just because of Rodgers being the starting quarterback. The unit needs to have more talent than last season and the scheme has to improve as well.



That approach would most likely result in the Packers needing an upgrade at tight end next offseason once again.

Probably right about drafting TE again next year. But at some point scouting has to do their job too. And what offensive studs did the Superbowl champ Pat's have?!? Patterson? Retiring Gronk? Gordon? Just Brady and a great SCHEME. Larry Fitzgerald zero rings. Megatron zero rings. Tony Gonzalez...point only that u don't need superstars. Stop other teams from scoring gives u the best chance of winning. TE yes. But not at 12th overall.

 

[green&goldsoul]

While I understand what you are saying, the problem is, if those late round TE's competing for the starting job aren't that talented to begin with, you probably end up with a not so great starter, no matter how hard they battle to win the job. That sounds like the approach TT took to fill the position for too man years. The closest he came to having a solid TE was using a 3rd round pick on Finley or signing Cook in Free agency.

Bingo. Finley was awesome in our offense. U draft players and utilize their strengths. Diamonds are made.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Bingo. Finley was awesome in our offense. U draft players and utilize their strengths. Diamonds are made.

Right, but expecting to create diamonds out of late round picks is a strategy that finally caught up with TT. I think Gute has the right idea. Try to fill as many starting needs via FA and then go after future needs in the draft. TE is going to be, if not already, a need. So depending on how much MLF values the TE, which I think he does, this years draft will probably reflect that and could include a high pick used on one.

 

[green&goldsoul]

Right, but expecting to create diamonds out of late round picks is a strategy that finally caught up with TT. I think Gute has the right idea. Try to fill as many starting needs via FA and then go after future needs in the draft. TE is going to be, if not already, a need. So depending on how much MLF values the TE, which I think he does, this years draft will probably reflect that and could include a high pick used on one.

I do agree it's gonna happen. Just not happy about it. Noah Fant at 30 I could live with.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I do agree it's gonna happen. Just not happy about it. Noah Fant at 30 I could live with.

I will brighten your outlook up a bit. So instead of using 2 late round picks on TE's, like you suggested. Let's say the Packers draft Fant at 30, a solid return guy in the 6th round and a top Kicker in Round 7. I think the long term results of that could pan out better.

While its fun to think that every late round pick will be the next Tom Brady or Donald Driver, it doesn't happen often enough. I prefer seeing those picks used on top notch special teamers, guys who have a much better chance at filling an immediate need and probably at a higher level than an UDFA.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Probably right about drafting TE again next year. But at some point scouting has to do their job too. TE yes. But not at 12th overall.

I'm not advocating for the Packers to select a tight end at #12 but wouldn't be disappointed about it either. It will most likely take more than a day three pick to replace Graham after next season though.

 

[Dantés]

Competition is key. Hockenson won't have that. He'll just be handed the keys after Jimmy leaves. No his fault of course. But with only one other TE on the roster in 2020, just don't like that for the 12th over all pick. Drafting two late round TEs with the the 10 picks will make for health competition to find our next starter or starters. I guess I just value defense more, especially with AR 12 on the other side. ILB or DL or OL at 12th pick. Either could potentially start or be rotated for scenario. Safety a need as well. But value wise, addressable after 12th pick.

I am not here to convince everyone that Hockenson must be the pick at #12, but "a lack of projected competition for him" in 2020 seems like a terrible reason to not draft him.

Again, apply that standard everywhere and it really limits you. Can't draft Devin White! He'll just be handed the keys.

 

[Dantés]

Dream Mock
Trade with Jacksonville 12th plus second fourth round plus seventh round for 7th overall pick.
Devin White at 7
Darnell Savage or Nasir Adderley at 30
A.J. Brown or Andy Isabella or Parris Campbell at 44
OL
TE
OL
DT
RB

Oof... to each their own, but trading away extra picks to move up to #7 only to take Devin White is basically my nightmare scenario.