Historical Break Down Of QBs Taken In First Round

[tynimiller]

Lot of speculations and statements have always been thrown around about this and that when it comes to QBs in the first round....here is some historical draft review and takeaways since folks like to go down this road often without verifying their statements:

	# Taken	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
2021	5	1	2	3	11	15
2020	4	1	5	6	26
2019	3	1	6	15
2018	4	1	3	7	32
2017	3	2	10	12
2016	3	1	2	26
2015	2	1	2
2014	3	3	22	32
2013	1	16
2012	4	1	2	8	22
2011	4	1	8	10	12
2010	2	1	25
Total Taken:	38
Average Position Taken:	9.32
Taken 10th or Earlier:	25 or 66%
Taken 20th or Later:	7 or 18%

So while the theory of a team targeting a QB late Day 1 for that 5th year...it hasn't really played out that way nor do many QBs go behind pick 20.

This is why I've said even though this is a lighter quality QB class than some, I would still bet 3 QBs go, with two of those following the trends and be gone/taken before the 11th pick is up. 2013 was the exceedingly weak and outlier year for QBs in the draft with just one taken and 16th to boot...that was EJ Manuel.

This is one reason why I don't see the Saints trade as making a ton of sense...IF they're thinking QB....but that is getting the discussion a little sidetracked. Will save that for the second page of the thread.

 

[OldSchool101]

However you also have to consider draft order.
In 2022 in particular, I think the teams that are interested don’t match with the QB board ranking. That means we will see several teams jockey to get one after the first one goes. That goes both ways. Backwards and forwards. Detroit will unlikely use a #2 at QB etc.. that means either trade back or trade up from late day1-early day 2. Same with Seattle etc.

Many seasons there are 2-3 teams trading into the Top-10 to jockey. We don’t have 4 top 10 worthy. We do have 4-5 top #40 guys though. That 30-40 area is much much easier to trade around collateral wise.

 

[tynimiller]

However you also have to consider draft order.
In 2022 in particular, I think the teams that are interested don’t match with the QB board ranking. That means we will see several teams jockey to get one after the first one goes. That goes both ways. Backwards and forwards. Detroit will unlikely use a #2 at QB etc.. that means either trade back or trade up from late day1-early day 2. Same with Seattle etc.

Many seasons there are 2-3 teams trading into the Top-10 to jockey. We don’t have 4 top 10 worthy. We do have 4-5 top #40 guys though. That 30-40 area is much much easier to trade around collateral wise.

Oh for sure, I predict two teams NOT presently in the top 12 (Lions exception as they are but might come back up) or so will be when all said and done. Lions, Saints, Washington are the main three I see out of that which might end up in there....perhaps the Texans despite their claim they like Webb

 

[Schultz]

What Carolina does at #6 IMO dictates the moving around of the QB needy teams. I do not belive anyone would trade up higher than that for any of these QBs.

 

[Magooch]

I would feel pretty confident that Carolina and Pittsburgh will be going QB. of course as it stands that's 6 and 20.
It would not shock me either if Detroit got enamored with one of the QB prospects and snagged one too. Would it be the most surprising thing in the world if they fell in love with Malik Willis and took him at 2? I don't think it's super likely but it wouldn't be unheard of either. The Saints, Falcons, and Commanders are all somewhat realistic options for me to take a QB too.

Anyways, that being said, I think we'll have at least one, maybe two go top 10. I'd almost guarantee two QBs taken inside the top 20, and honestly I wouldn't completely discount the possibility that there's a bit of a run and teams get jumpy and as many as 4 or so end up going in the first when it's all said and done

 

[tynimiller]

What Carolina does at #6 IMO dictates the moving around of the QB needy teams. I do not belive anyone would trade up higher than that for any of these QBs.

With picks at 2,32,34 the Lions have the equity to grab their QB1 of choice if they want, them and Carolina will set the track of 2022 Draft QB wise.

 

[Poppa San]

With picks at 2,32,34 the Lions have the equity to grab their QB1 of choice if they want, them and Carolina will set the track of 2022 Draft QB wise.

I think #2 for a QB is a bit steep. If they went back to about the Jets second pick at 10 they have a shot at a decent one. Depends on their druthers of course.

I mocked the Lions one time. Traded out of #2 and kept trading until I was out of the first with that pick. Ended with like 8 picks between 32 and 82. Also added next year 1st, 3 2nds, 4 thirds and a bunch of other later picks. If only real life was a video game. (All the women would be built like Lara Croft.)

 

[Magooch]

I think #2 for a QB is a bit steep. If they went back to about the Jets second pick at 10 they have a shot at a decent one. Depends on their druthers of course.

I mocked the Lions one time. Traded out of #2 and kept trading until I was out of the first with that pick. Ended with like 8 picks between 32 and 82. Also added next year 1st, 3 2nds, 4 thirds and a bunch of other later picks. If only real life was a video game. (All the women would be built like Lara Croft.)

#2 is probably steep, although stranger things have happened. But I think perhaps the point Tynimiller was making (correct me if I'm wrong) was not necessarily that they will take one at #2 but rather just that they have the means to move around as needed to get a QB if they really like one. If they fall in love with Pickett or Willis or whoever but are confident neither will get picked until #10 or something, then perhaps they look to trade down and load up a few more picks and still get their guy.

 

[tynimiller]

#2 is probably steep, although stranger things have happened. But I think perhaps the point Tynimiller was making (correct me if I'm wrong) was not necessarily that they will take one at #2 but rather just that they have the means to move around as needed to get a QB if they really like one. If they fall in love with Pickett or Willis or whoever but are confident neither will get picked until #10 or something, then perhaps they look to trade down and load up a few more picks and still get their guy.

Yup.
Lions I'd argue are the sole team that can guarantee they're getting their QB1 IF they want to UNLESS someone gives up a king's ransom to Jacksonville.

After Detroit the Panthers have the power to set the QB picks in motion if they want...

 

[Schultz]

With picks at 2,32,34 the Lions have the equity to grab their QB1 of choice if they want, them and Carolina will set the track of 2022 Draft QB wise.

I just do not see DET taking a QB at #2. A trade back from #2 then use either 32 or 34 to move up should put them in a good spot to fill a few needs including QB. If they are in love with one QB they would need to stay ahead of Carolina. What about the Giants? They are a QB wildcard with picks 5,7 & 36.

 

[tynimiller]

I just do not see DET taking a QB at #2. A trade back from #2 then use either 32 or 34 to move up should put them in a good spot to fill a few needs including QB. If they are in love with one QB they would need to stay ahead of Carolina. What about the Giants? They are a QB wildcard with picks 5,7 & 36.

The discussion was who has the control setting the QB draft market, and to me the Lions clearly do. I did completely leave Giants off the list by sheer mistake and not on purpose...however they have "stressed" how the Daniel Jones experiment is not over....but who knows.

 

[Schultz]

I know what the discussion was about since I started it in post#4. We just have different opinions.

 

[PikeBadger]

Lot of speculations and statements have always been thrown around about this and that when it comes to QBs in the first round....here is some historical draft review and takeaways since folks like to go down this road often without verifying their statements:

	# Taken	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
2021	5	1	2	3	11	15
2020	4	1	5	6	26
2019	3	1	6	15
2018	4	1	3	7	32
2017	3	2	10	12
2016	3	1	2	26
2015	2	1	2
2014	3	3	22	32
2013	1	16
2012	4	1	2	8	22
2011	4	1	8	10	12
2010	2	1	25
Total Taken:	38
Average Position Taken:	9.32
Taken 10th or Earlier:	25 or 66%
Taken 20th or Later:	7 or 18%

So while the theory of a team targeting a QB late Day 1 for that 5th year...it hasn't really played out that way nor do many QBs go behind pick 20.

This is why I've said even though this is a lighter quality QB class than some, I would still bet 3 QBs go, with two of those following the trends and be gone/taken before the 11th pick is up. 2013 was the exceedingly weak and outlier year for QBs in the draft with just one taken and 16th to boot...that was EJ Manuel.

This is one reason why I don't see the Saints trade as making a ton of sense...IF they're thinking QB....but that is getting the discussion a little sidetracked. Will save that for the second page of the thread.

Wow! Absolutely amazing. My initial take on this is...... there sure are a lot of bad GM's that come and go in this league.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

All I want to know is this, what brain dead team took a QB at #26 in 2020? Their GM and fan base should be fired!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think the Panthers are the first team on the board at #6 that will want the QB that they feel is the best. Where Detroit (#2 and #32), but most likely the Giants (2 first round picks #5 and #7), can throw a wrench into those plans is by trading one of their 2 first round picks before the Panthers pick at #6. Trading it with any of the QB hungry teams.

Texans (#3, #13)
Panthers (#6)
Falcons (#8)
Seahawks (#9)
WTF (#11)
Steelers (#12)
Saints (#16)
Tampa Bay (#27)
Lions? (#2 and #32) I think they are fine with Goff, maybe a QB at 32 or later.

The Texans also have pick #3, which actually could really start the QB run. If the Panthers are worried that the Texans will take their favorite QB, they may try to trade up with Detroit.

This really isn't a strong QB draft, so I don't foresee all of those teams drafting a QB in the first round, at least not all top 20. One or more of those teams may wait to see what is still there late in the round or even Day 2 and take a shot then.

While the QB draft class isn't strong, I believe the demand is pretty strong among enough teams, that at least 3, if not 4 QB's get selected before the Packers #22 pick.