Free Agency: Packers Should Green Bay Pursue?

[Dantés]

It's interesting that a lot of fans consider $5 million a season for a cornerback playing 70% of the sanps as a significant use of resources yet don't feel the same way about nearly paying that much for an average kicker.

I didn't even realize that I felt this way. I learn things about myself talking with you .

Given the amount of cap space available to the Packers this offseason, of course paying ~4M to Crosby is a significant use of resources. Paying 5-6M for Williams would certainly qualify as well.

I'm also not sure it's a great idea to bring back a 37 year old as the 3rd corner. They'd be pushing their luck.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I didn't even realize that I felt this way. I learn things about myself talking with you .

I wasn't specifically talking about you but in general.

Given the amount of cap space available to the Packers this offseason, of course paying ~4M to Crosby is a significant use of resources. Paying 5-6M for Williams would certainly qualify as well.

I'm also not sure it's a great idea to bring back a 37 year old as the 3rd corner. They'd be pushing their luck.

I agree the Packers might be pushing their luck by relying on Tramon to be the third cornerback next season but re-signing him to a reasonable deal could make the transition smoother to a youngster taking on a more prominent role.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

He most certainly does have a weakness-- beating man coverage.

The large majority of his production has been as an outlet underneath against zone coverage. Per PFF, that's over 75% of his receiving production. When he's facing man coverage, he isn't nearly so productive. But when Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mo Sanu were on the field with him all at once, it was easier for him to find those looks.

I don't think it's a coincidence that his conversion rate on 3rd down targets was a mere 50%. I think that he feasted on shallow targets against zone coverage on earlier downs, but then faced man coverage on money downs when the defense had a chance to get off the field.

I am by no means saying he's a bad player. He has value. I'm just torn regarding what he's worth.

Beating man coverage regularly is really something that only the truly elite TEs can do on a regular basis. I don't think saying a TE isn't Kelce or Kittle should be classified as a "weakness".

 

[Dantés]

Beating man coverage regularly is really something that only the truly elite TEs can do on a regular basis. I don't think saying a TE isn't Kelce or Kittle should be classified as a "weakness".

If he's going to get paid like an elite tight end, then he should be assessed against that standard. Not saying that it's a deal breaker, but it is a weakness.

 

[Dantés]

I wasn't specifically talking about you but in general.



I agree the Packers might be pushing their luck by relying on Tramon to be the third cornerback next season but re-signing him to a reasonable deal could make the transition smoother to a youngster taking on a more prominent role.

In my mind, it would make more sense to sign a younger, longer term solution at slot corner and then draft someone to develop as an heir apparent to King.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In my mind, it would make more sense to sign a younger, longer term solution at slot corner and then draft someone to develop as an heir apparent to King.

I agree but most likely that would cost a lot more money as well. With limited cap space available Gutekunst has to be smart about on which positions to spend a significant amount of it.

 

[tynimiller]

I broke down a few TE options not named Hooper/Henry before but I've boiled it down to these only anymore:

*Blake Jarwin - Is my pick [albeit forced] of the bunch I'm listing. I remember liking him when he came out what seems like years ago now, but he is young (25) and is a pass catching TE that shows promise and seems to take steps forward each year. IF the Cowboys don't tender him or it is low enough tender, I believe GB should definitely consider him. Pair him with a Marcedes signing and you instantly have a TE room with a solid blocking veteran, a promising high draft pick, a developing Tonyan and now an experienced pass catching TE that is still young offering a future. Go watch some tape of him...so long as you don't expect to see the next HoF tight end, I sense you may like what you're seeing.

**Tyler Eifert - This is my runner up darkhorse. Plagued by injuries (red flag...but also discount possibly) he finally had a healthy season in 2019 and put up respectable numbers and finally was able to show what many have always said was there; a highly skilled TE capable of starting nearly anywhere. His injuries worry me, but at 6'6' and 250 his athleticism is awesome on that frame...and if you look at the years he played at least 10 games he is a 40, 400 type TE (receptions, yards) and 3.5-4.5 TDs as well in those years.

Darren Fells - He is the more athletic version of Marcedes Lewis basically. While he won't come as cheap as Lewis, he is not going to be anywhere close to top dollar. A late bloomer in getting his shots, this 6'7' 33 year old hauled in 7 TDs and is a strong blocker. I wouldn't want him to be the only addition to the TE room....but if we happen to not want to bring Lewis back, or you are not a Lewis fan but want a blocker added, this is your guy.

Ricky Seals-Jones - Yet another younger, not quite proven guy, that I'm not 100% sold on, but as we know the pool is very limited. RSJ saw the field in 2019 about as much as Tonyan, but in 2018 saw over 500 snaps, put forth 34 receptions and 340 yards. 6'5' 243lb, I like his frame and being just 24 years old again there is promise of growth which he has exhibited. He is like Jarwin, but IMO is even more of a roll of the dice future wise. Upside is high, unknowns are arguably as well...

Jarwin most likely gets tendered too high I bet...even as much as I'm sold on him am unsure I'm parting with a second rounder...if a lower tender than that or let flirt with free agency WE HAVE TO look into him. All that said I'm very intrigued by RSJ...I see him as the type of guy that is at that point in his career the snowball starts gaining momentum down the hill OR slams into a tree and is no more.

Eifert makes the most sense if we want a FOR SURE TE#1 on our roster, with experience and having had good years before in their career. The catch with him is health...but on a year where money is limited and the top flight guys are most likely not getting a deal from us Eifert is the type of dice roll depending on contract structure that could be amazing when we sit here a year or two in the future and reflect on what he gave us...

 

[Pugger]

Probably a better blocker and a more reliable pass catcher in 2020. Not necessarily because Hooper is special, but in Sternberger, you're talking about 3 career catches.

Hooper is a known commodity and Sternberger is not. Hooper is lucky - for him - that this is a weak TE class this year.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If he's going to get paid like an elite tight end, then he should be assessed against that standard. Not saying that it's a deal breaker, but it is a weakness.

Paying him the same amount the Packers paid Graham isn't what I would consider "elite" TE money. Kittle/Kelce would make far more than $10m per year in free agency.

 

[Dantés]

I need to offer something of a correction. I've been pointing out that Hooper had "only" a 50% success rate on 3rd down this season-- 9 first downs on 18 3rd down targets. First of all, that ignores a touchdown, which would make his rate 56%. But more importantly, I realized that I don't really know if that success rate is good or bad. I was assuming it was sub-standard without a frame of reference. So I pulled data on several of the top tight ends to compare. Find it below. In order, these numbers are 3rd down targets, 3rd down receptions, 3rd down TD's, and 3rd down catches for first downs. The last number is the success rate-- the % of 3rd down targets that resulted in a first down or a touchdown.

Hunter Henry: 16 targets, 10 receptions, 2 TD, 8 1D, 63%
George Kittle: 34 targets, 27 receptions, 2 TD, 18 1D, 59%
Zach Ertz: 29 targets, 18 receptions, 2 TD, 15 1D, 59%
Dallas Goedert: 19 targets, 11, receptions, 1 TD, 10 1D, 58%
Austin Hooper: 18 targets, 12 receptions, 1 TD, 9 1D, 56%
Jared Cook: 20 targets, 11 receptions, 2 TD, 9 1D, 55%
Mark Andrews: 37 targets, 25 receptions, 2 TD, 17 1D, 53%
Darren Waller: 24 targets, 15 receptions, 1 TD, 11 1D, 50%
Travis Kelce: 31 targets, 17 receptions, 0 TD, 13 1D, 42%
Evan Engram: 16 targets, 9 receptions, 1 TD, 5 1D, 38%

So it would seem that a 56% success rate is right in line with other top tight ends, and thus not something that should be held against Hooper's production.

 

[Dantés]

Paying him the same amount the Packers paid Graham isn't what I would consider "elite" TE money. Kittle/Kelce would make far more than $10m per year in free agency.

If he got paid 10M, he would be tied for the highest paid TE. Certainly Kittle will top him, but then he would still be tied for 2nd at the position. Kelce has two years left on his current deal, and will be 32 when he hits FA again, so it's harder to say what will happen with him.

But it's hard to say that being the top paid or 2nd highest paid at his position is something other than elite money.

 

[Dantés]

I agree but most likely that would cost a lot more money as well. With limited cap space available Gutekunst has to be smart about on which positions to spend a significant amount of it.

If they are choosing not to pay Bulaga, which seems to be the early likeliest scenario, then they had darn well better reinvest some of that in a better corner.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think it's partially that they don't see him as an elite player, but also partially that they're in a really tough spot against the cap.

I believe it is mostly being hard against the cap which dovetails into the fact that with Ryan-Jones-Ridley-Hooper they finished 7-9. They couldn't throw their way to victory, the old "just outscore them" formulation. They don't even have $10 million to spend and even if they did it needs to go toward something else because what they tried isn't working.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If he got paid 10M, he would be tied for the highest paid TE. Certainly Kittle will top him, but then he would still be tied for 2nd at the position. Kelce has two years left on his current deal, and will be 32 when he hits FA again, so it's harder to say what will happen with him.

But it's hard to say that being the top paid or 2nd highest paid at his position is something other than elite money.

True. Kinda like Crosby.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If he got paid 10M, he would be tied for the highest paid TE. Certainly Kittle will top him, but then he would still be tied for 2nd at the position. Kelce has two years left on his current deal, and will be 32 when he hits FA again, so it's harder to say what will happen with him.

But it's hard to say that being the top paid or 2nd highest paid at his position is something other than elite money.

That's not how free agency works. "Elite" money is technically just money spent in the most recent off-season. The best players at their positions are underpaid by the beginning of the third year of their free agent deals. I guess I just don't consider $10m per season to be an overpay when Robbie Anderson will probably get more and I actually think Hooper will help the team more than Anderson would.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If they are choosing not to pay Bulaga, which seems to be the early likeliest scenario, then they had darn well better reinvest some of that in a better corner.

Not sure how much they need to spend on another corner but I do agree that the team desperately needs to improve at the #2 corner and find someone younger than Williams to play slot corner (curious if they draft a safety in the first round and let Savage have a shot at slot corner).

 

[Dantés]

That's not how free agency works. "Elite" money is technically just money spent in the most recent off-season. The best players at their positions are underpaid by the beginning of the third year of their free agent deals. I guess I just don't consider $10m per season to be an overpay when Robbie Anderson will probably get more and I actually think Hooper will help the team more than Anderson would.

I understand how FA works. My only point is that in light of how FA works, I am torn on whether Hooper is worth will he will command. If you don't like the term "elite money," fine. Top money? The point is the same. The rest of this is just semantics.

 

[Dantés]

Not sure how much they need to spend on another corner but I do agree that the team desperately needs to improve at the #2 corner and find someone younger than Williams to play slot corner (curious if they draft a safety in the first round and let Savage have a shot at slot corner).

I would be happy for them to tack 2-3M on to what Tramon would cost and find a younger solution at slot corner.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Jarwin most likely gets tendered too high I bet...even as much as I'm sold on him am unsure I'm parting with a second rounder...if a lower tender than that or let flirt with free agency WE HAVE TO look into him.

I highly doubt the Cowboys would put the original round tender on Jarwin if they decide to keep him as with him going undrafted in 2017 they wouldn't receive any compensation for losing him.

If they are choosing not to pay Bulaga, which seems to be the early likeliest scenario, then they had darn well better reinvest some of that in a better corner.

I don't think that the Packers decision on Bulaga has any impact on what the team does at cornerback this offseason.

 

[GleefulGary]

Jarwin is getting a 2nd round tender.

 

[Dantés]

I don't think that the Packers decision on Bulaga has any impact on what the team does at cornerback this offseason.

Hypothetically, if they chose to save 10-12M in space by signing Veldheer and not Bulaga at RT, then I would sure hope they plan to reinvest those savings at other spots on the roster.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Hypothetically, if they chose to save 10-12M in space by signing Veldheer and not Bulaga at RT, then I would sure hope they plan to reinvest those savings at other spots on the roster.

That's definitely what I would hope for as well but it doesn't mean Gutekunst would spend that money on a cornerback though. I would rather prefer the Packers to sign a tight end and inside linebacker in that case.

 

[Dantés]

That's definitely what I would hope for as well but it doesn't mean Gutekunst would spend that money on a cornerback though. I would rather prefer the Packers to sign a tight end and inside linebacker in that case.

For sure. But they may have tried to sign a pass catcher and linebacker regardless. If they pass on another major expense, then I think they could address other needs as well.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Hypothetically, if they chose to save 10-12M in space by signing Veldheer and not Bulaga at RT, then I would sure hope they plan to reinvest those savings at other spots on the roster.

In my run through on Feb. 7 ("2020 Salary Cap" thread, post #36), which includes Graham's release, projected draft costs, the Jones/Williams escators, but not the Crosby contract. I came up with $24.2 mil to work with factoring in a minimal $2 mil injury reserve. Crosby's deal knocks $4 mil off that number. I did not assume Taylor's release in those numbers, but if we assume Taylor's cap goes to Crosby it's a wash.

It's not hard to see how cap dribs and drabs away even without headline signings. If you start backing and filling a couple low-to-mid tier vets and bring back a few restricted and exclusive rights free agents with modest bumps, that's more chunks, dribs or drabs.

What makes this season different, obviously, is we don't know what the CBA negotiators project for future revenue and cap.

However, there's another factor that came to my attention today that may result in substantial cap growth in 2021 and behond. Something around $2 billion in expenses were subtracted last year from gross revenue against which the 47% to the players was calcualted. That $2 billion includes stadium construction and renovation expenses.

We've noticed a somewhat head scratching slowing of cap growth in recent years, down to about 6% in 2019, at the low end of the initial estimate. I think we may have an answer: stadium construction in LA and Las Vegas.

With those stadiums reaching completion, with no new ones coming on line, if we assume half of that $2 billion goes back into the revenue pool against which cap is calculated (with the other half going to ongoing facility capital improvements across the league), the math on 48% going against that addition $1 billion looks like this:

$1 billion x 0.48% / 32 teams = $15 mil additional cap per team per year indefinitely on top of whatever additional revenue is projected going into the 48% pool from more games and new TV contracts.

This is fuzzy math. I have no idea whether the dedcutible expenses for those stadiums have been $1 billion per year in recent years but it goes to illustrate the possibilities. Billions have been poured into these pleasure palaces in recent years.

The Bills dome is probably years from ground breaking if it ever gets built. I'm reading that the Redskins plan for a new stadium is stalled. I'm not aware of any others even close to ground breaking but I'm willing to be corrected on that.

So, unlike previous years, we are very much in the dark as to the cap implications of headline signings in 2021 and beyond because it is impossible to estimate future cap. If there's an expected big jump, backloaded contracts come back into play with the affect of next year's cap liabilites and free agents neutralized to one degree or another.

In other words, we won't get an inkling of where this is going until the Packers and others start signing guys, or not, and how those contracts are structured.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If he's going to get paid like an elite tight end, then he should be assessed against that standard. Not saying that it's a deal breaker, but it is a weakness.

A comparison and an observation:

Z. was in the discussion of possible free agent signings last year. I believe you listed both Smiths as possibilites among a few others in one particular post, which got my attention and support in my preferred "go young or go home" approach in rebuilding the roster.

I don't recall anybody proposing that Z. be signed for $16.5 million per year, currently the 3rd. highest 3-4 OLB contract on a per year basis behind only Mack and Miller. I think if that had been put on the table strenuous objections would have been voiced. Of course, after the fact any criticism is bound to be somewhat muted in deference to the GM and staff.

The point being, that contract required a projection, of the player and the scheme fit. There wasn't confirmed elite status to go with that elite pay. In this case Gutekunst was right. What seperates good GMs from mediocre or poor ones is their projection hit rate, whether with free agents or in the draft--especially in the draft where there is the possibility of good-better-best performance at a low price over 3 or 4 years.

So, lets consider how it might be possible to project Hooper into a headline contract:

• His receiving stats over the first half of last season before he sprained a knee were All Pro worthy.
• He's a second contract player in his prime.
• Other than that knee sprain last season, where he missed 3 games, he's been a durable player missing 5 games over 4 years. The two games he missed as a rookie were also the result of a knee injury which might be concerning. However, after a few lackluster games post-injury last season, perhaps an injury hangover, Hooper rallied back in the last two games with 14 catches on 18 targets for 127 yards. That should asuage injury risk concerns.
• He may not be an elite blocker but he's surely better than what Graham brought to the table. That's especially helpful if LaFleur continues with an increased number of 2 TE sets as we saw last year as the season wore on.

We have the report from Demovsky that Gutekunst intends to "make a run" at Hooper. That's obviously a cost sensitive matter but Gutekunst surely knows he'll command some serious coin. Whether he'd be the highest bidder, as with at least the Smiths and Amos, guys who were downright giddy over their contracts, remains to be seen. We had reports he was in discussions with Robinson and Watkins but settled for Graham a couple years back. He may have a firm max price point on Hooper that he won't exceed.

On the other hand, we had a report from a week or so back that discussions with Bulaga had not started. I've seen two different reports about what transpired last year, one saying Bulaga wanted an extension but was not offered one, the other saying we was offered an extension but declined it. If either is true, there is some lingering tension.

It comes down to price, price, price and cap, cap, cap, as if that needs to be said. Given that, my speculation would be if either Bulaga or Hooper can be secured at Gutekunst's max price point, and he can only afford one, it would be Hooper.