Free Agency: Packers Should Green Bay Pursue?

[superdan]

is there any analysis, off or whatever, that proves clark is as good as many on this forum seem to think he is. According to the eye test he has some great short stretches followed by disappearing for longer stretches. Average with tons of hype.

 

[Dantés]

is there any analysis, off or whatever, that proves clark is as good as many on this forum seem to think he is. According to the eye test he has some great short stretches followed by disappearing for longer stretches. Average with tons of hype.

You mean PFF?

Here.

Clark played through a high ankle sprain during the first half of 2019. That's why he looked less than his normal self for that first stretch, and then dominated after the bye. He ended with a PFF grade of 79.9 if you like that sort of thing. I tend to think the reality is pretty obvious if you're just watching him play.

If your only observation of him was while he was playing hurt, I guess I could see how you might think he's overhyped.

If you've watched him generally over his career and that's your conclusion, then that's just a fancy way of telling everyone that you have no idea what you're looking at.

 

[GleefulGary]

You mean PFF?

Here.

Clark played through a high ankle sprain during the first half of 2019. That's why he looked less than his normal self for that first stretch, and then dominated after the bye. He ended with a PFF grade of 79.9 if you like that sort of thing. I tend to think the reality is pretty obvious if you're just watching him play.

If your only observation of him was while he was playing hurt, I guess I could see how you might think he's overhyped.

If you've watched him generally over his career and that's your conclusion, then that's just a fancy way of telling everyone that you have no idea what you're looking at.

Brandon Thorn has a thread or two on Clark that's good, if I remember right.

 

[Dantés]

Brandon Thorn has a thread or two on Clark that's good, if I remember right.

Prolly just cherry picked the three good plays that Clark has ever had, I bet.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Ok, then go from being above average to below average on the dline but above average at 2-3 other positions.

The problem being that there's no guarantee that free agents signed or prospects drafted perform up to expectations down the road. With Clark the Packers know that they have one of the best inside defensive lineman in the league on the roster who is only 24 years old. It would be insane to get rid of him to sign or draft some potential average players at other positions.

TT wasn’t a great GM, but he was right to try as hard as possible to keep talented people on the roster.

I have been critical of Thompson in the past but he was definitely a great general manager for most of his tenure in Green Bay.

Unless someone makes an insane trade proposal, as was the case when the Bears traded for Khalil Mack. (And even with that example, the Bears may regret the draft capital they had to give up.)

The Bears already regret giving up a king's ransom for Mack.

The Athletic posited that the Rams could send Brandin Cooks to GB for a 2020 4th round pick, and a conditional pick in 2021.

The Rams would take an additional cap hit of $5 million by trading Cooks. It's not gonna happen.

there is a 12 million dollar this year price tag that we have to fit in there somehow though.

The Packers would only be on the hook for Cook's $8 million base salary this season by trading for him. The Rams already paid him a $4 million roster bonus in March.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You did. But whatever.



Again, you are unrealistic in what you the Packers could do with the money.

If you want a competent, starting iDL in place of Clark to stop the run, the going rate is around 8M, conservatively:

• Jordan Phillips, ARI: 10M
• Michael Pierce, MIN: 9M
• Linval Joseph, LAC: 8.5M
• A'Shawn Robinson, LAR: 8.5M
• Ndamukong Suh, TB: 8M

If we're estimating 16M for Clark, that eats up half. And then you think you're going to go get 2-3 average to above average players with the rest? That's crazy.

Recent WR contracts, under 10M AAV:

• Randall Cobb, HOU: 9M
• Emmanuel Sanders, NO: 8M
• Breshad Perriman, NYJ: 6.5M
• Danny Amendola, DET: 5M

Recent CB contracts, under 10M AAV:

• Chris Harris Jr, LAC: 8.5M
• Janoris Jenkins, NO: 8.4M
• Josh Norman, BUF: 6M
• Anthony Brown, DAL: 5.2M
• Brian Poole, NYJ: 5M

If you want to deal in the reality of current NFL market contracts, then letting Clark walk will buy you a two down run-stuffer, hopefully a young one but very likely an old, declining player, and one of the following at WR or CB: an old, declining player or a young, unproven player, on a 1-2 year deal in either case.

That's the alternative, and that's why the answer is obvious-- keeping Clark is a no brainer.

My point wasn't that you would fix the dline by letting Clark go, the dline would obviously be weaker. My point was that improving at receiver, corner, and TE might, just "might", be worth getting worse on the dline.

How did you miss the contracts I pointed out? You could sepend a total of $14m between Alexander Mackensie, Eric Ebron, and Perriman as free agents and then draft a run-stuffing DT in the middle of the draft.

But ok, having one elite guy is, in your book, better than improving at two to three other position groups. Just a difference on how to build teams.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The problem being that there's no guarantee that free agents signed or prospects drafted perform up to expectations down the road. With Clark the Packers know that they have one of the best inside defensive lineman in the league on the roster who is only 24 years old. It would be insane to get rid of him to sign or draft some potential average players at other positions.

Then get a better GM/coach. You shouldn't run a team by being scared the guys in charge can't find good players.

 

[mradtke66]

The Rams would take an additional cap hit of $5 million by trading Cooks. It's not gonna happen.

Assuming the Rams could absorb the cap hit, they could, it would just less-likely. And it's likely it would drive up the draft compensation costs, unless the 4th + a conditional rumor accounts for that.

 

[Dantés]

My point wasn't that you would fix the dline by letting Clark go, the dline would obviously be weaker. My point was that improving at receiver, corner, and TE might, just "might", be worth getting worse on the dline.

How did you miss the contracts I pointed out? You could sepend a total of $14m between Alexander Mackensie, Eric Ebron, and Perriman as free agents and then draft a run-stuffing DT in the middle of the draft.

But ok, having one elite guy is, in your book, better than improving at two to three other position groups. Just a difference on how to build teams.

I didn't miss them, but those guys/deals just aren't what you think they are.

You're passing those guys off as though they are average to above average players at their position. There's a reason those guys are so cheap. Eric Ebron is virtually the same player as Funchess, just more expensive. Alexander and Perriman have had good portions of single seasons. The odds that they would both be average to above average NFL starters are super low.

And then you're necessitating that they spend a high draft pick on the DL to bring in a rookie that you hope will be competent, and may not be. As opposed to keeping your super young, elite player and spending that draft capital elsewhere to build around him.

You think this is a difference in how to build teams-- it's not. It's a difference in the value of players.

 

[Dantés]

Then get a better GM/coach. You shouldn't run a team by being scared the guys in charge can't find good players.

You also shouldn't run a team by getting rid of your best, young players in exchange for a handful of bums.

 

[mradtke66]

My point wasn't that you would fix the dline by letting Clark go, the dline would obviously be weaker. My point was that improving at receiver, corner, and TE might, just "might", be worth getting worse on the dline.

How did you miss the contracts I pointed out? You could sepend a total of $14m between Alexander Mackensie, Eric Ebron, and Perriman as free agents and then draft a run-stuffing DT in the middle of the draft.

But ok, having one elite guy is, in your book, better than improving at two to three other position groups. Just a difference on how to build teams.

I think you're under-valuing Clark and just how great a player he is. And you're over-estimating how much average talent helps teams.

I subscribe to the notion that (almost) every player on an NFL roster is a world class player. Even our favorite whipping boys Geronimo and MVS are among the best 1700 or so players in the world.

What separates good teams from great teams is the number of elite players among your 53. I think you need about 3 of them, minimum, to seriously compete for the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 31 Packers had Favre, Reggie, and LeRoy.

Super Bow 45 Packers had Rodgers, Woodson, Matthews, and Collins.

Current Packers have Rodgers and Clark. Devante is right on the edge of what I would qualify as elite in this context. Bhaktiari is also elite, but offensive linemen have a harder time impacting the game the same way. For example, I'd consider the Seahawks combination of Jones, Hutchinson, and Alexander to in total count as 1 elite player in this context.

I'm loathe to part with a game changer when he's under 30. Clark is even younger. If you advocate getting rid of him in particular, I would shake your hand, look you in the eye, and call you a fool to your face. Now, if we got a kings ransom for him, ala Mack, then sure, I'd accept it, and I'd call the trading team the fool.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While I have been the one yelling pretty loud for the Packers to upgrade their WR group, I wouldn't want to see them roll the dice on Cooks. While the draft pick investment being kicked around isn't that bad (a 4th this year and a conditional 4th next year), $8M this year would be a steal and 3 more years of $12, $13 and $14M is probably reasonable, it is his concussion history that breaks the deal for me.

Cooks has been diagnosed with five concussions in only six seasons. He suffered two concussions in less than a month during the 2019 season. He is also coming off one of his worst years of his career. He finished with 42 catches for 584 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games in 2019.

The Packers need help at WR, but not at that price and risk IMO.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think it was 8 salary, but had some bonuses etc that depending on when they're to be paid brings it up to 12. I think

Thanks Mondio, makes sense. I like Cooks, but I’d like some answers as to why he’s moved around so much, his production last year (500 plus yards), and the number of concussions he’s had (requiring a physical exam). Without the ability to meet F2F, that’s a lot of risk to take on, even if the comp is reasonable (4th round 2020 pick and conditional 2021 pick). At this point I’d pass, too many unknowns.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My point wasn't that you would fix the dline by letting Clark go, the dline would obviously be weaker. My point was that improving at receiver, corner, and TE might, just "might", be worth getting worse on the dline.

But ok, having one elite guy is, in your book, better than improving at two to three other position groups. Just a difference on how to build teams.

As I've mentioned before I agree the Packers need to improve at several positions.

Gutekunst could create $12 million in cap space by moving on from Linsley and Taylor, most likely without a significant drop-off in performance. Those are players to look at when needing to create additional cap space.

Then get a better GM/coach. You shouldn't run a team by being scared the guys in charge can't find good players.

No, you shouldn't run a team by moving on from elite players still entering their prime.

In addition you might want to consider that even the best general managers in the league miss on a lot of draft picks.

Assuming the Rams could absorb the cap hit, they could, it would just less-likely. And it's likely it would drive up the draft compensation costs, unless the 4th + a conditional rumor accounts for that.

Actually the Rams couldn't trade Cooks at this point without making a corresponding move to stay under the cap.

 

[GleefulGary]

I think you're underestimating the drop between Linsley and Patrick.

Also, for me anyways, a concern with cutting both Linsley and Taylor is you have no OL depth anywhere, and we know that the starting 5 isn't going to make it through all 16 (17?) games + playoffs. Sure, we can draft somebody, but will they be ready to play soon? Seems like a big risk to take, to me.

 

[mradtke66]

Actually the Rams couldn't trade Cooks at this point without making a corresponding move to stay under the cap.

I wasn't sure, but suspected that was the case.

 

[mradtke66]

I think you're underestimating the drop between Linsley and Patrick.

In spot duty this past year, I was pleased with Patrick.

Is it possible that he's a step down from Linsley if he's expected to start the whole season? Sure.

It's also possibly that while he's a downgrade, he's still plenty good enough.

Also, for me anyways, a concern with cutting both Linsley and Taylor is you have no OL depth anywhere, and we know that the starting 5 isn't going to make it through all 16 (17?) games + playoffs. Sure, we can draft somebody, but will they be ready to play soon? Seems like a big risk to take, to me.

This is the take I can get behind. Depending on who we draft, I'd be very wary of moving on from both of these guys in the same off season.

 

[tynimiller]

I would argue there is not a single other position on our entire team that you could tap the starter and say "leave, you're cut" and we absorb it as well as Center.

TE maybe...but we don't have a clear #1 anyways there.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I would argue there is not a single other position on our entire team that you could tap the starter and say "leave, you're cut" and we absorb it as well as Center.

TE maybe...but we don't have a clear #1 anyways there.

Good point and I agree. Taylor and Linsley are luxuries in my mind that the Packers have current options to replace and save a lot of money. However, until they actually need that money, both guys are probably worth keeping around as insurance as well as for overall depth of the OL. The draft could potentially make either or both of them even more expendable. Gute could use the savings in 2 distinct ways. First, to immediately be able to sign a FA. Second, to use to extend someone like Clark or Bahk.

COVID-19 has the potential to really alter how teams are accustom to doing things. If there are no training camps, limited (if any) preseason games and there actually is a season, teams that are relying on rookies to step right in and play an important role may want to reconsider those expectations.

 

[GleefulGary]

In spot duty this past year, I was pleased with Patrick.

Is it possible that he's a step down from Linsley if he's expected to start the whole season? Sure.

It's also possibly that while he's a downgrade, he's still plenty good enough.



This is the take I can get behind. Depending on who we draft, I'd be very wary of moving on from both of these guys in the same off season.

I like Patrick, but Linsley is better than a lot of people realize. Plus, there is obviously a lot of chemistry between a QB and his C.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think you're underestimating the drop between Linsley and Patrick.

In my opinion the drop-off to Patrick is significant enough to justify paying Linsley $8.5 million this season. I was especially disappointed with the accuracy on a lot of his shotgun snaps last year.

Also, for me anyways, a concern with cutting both Linsley and Taylor is you have no OL depth anywhere, and we know that the starting 5 isn't going to make it through all 16 (17?) games + playoffs.

I agree that moving on from both Linsley and Taylor would result in a lack of depth on the offensive line. Gutekunst should solely think about it if he needs the cap space to add a starter at a different position.

Just for the record, the owners don't have the option to add a 17th regular season game for 2020.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Post Draft signing along with Tramon?

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[Do7]

Post Draft signing along with Tramon?

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I could see a reunion in the works, but if Baltimore offers him more money I wouldn't blame him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I guess people have their answer on what it might have taken to get Brandin Cooks and the Texans found their WR to try and replace Hopkins.

The Texans are sending a 2nd round pick to the Rams in exchange for WR Brandin Cooks and a future fourth-round pick, source said.

 

[Do7]

I guess people have their answer on what it might have taken to get Brandin Cooks and the Texans found their WR to try and replace Hopkins.

The Texans are sending a 2nd round pick to the Rams in exchange for WR Brandin Cooks and a future fourth-round pick, source said.

Dammit! You beat me to it! XD