First Round Prospect Discussions Specifically

[Magooch]

Yeah, my general sense/vibe that I get is that this draft is just not a particularly strong one, and definitely not a very top-heavy one.

I think conventional wisdom would tell you that the "average" draft class probably has about 15 prospects with a "true" first round grade. Of course you're going to have 32 first-round picks, but I don't think there's EVER a class that comes out with 32 "first round grades". A really strong/deep class might have 18, 20, maybe touching into the 20s for first-round graded players.

This year, the buzz I'm hearing is that for most teams it's more like 10-12 guys with a "first round grade" and the rest is kind of up in the air. In fact I have seen a couple of draft analysts saying it's got one of the lowest number of first-round graded prospects (if not THE lowest number) on record and/or in recent history.

Now you could make a case that it is also a "deep" draft, in the sense that there seems to be a lot of parity and/or not a ton of discrepancy between some of the rounds.

Take for instance the WR position and look at NFL.com's prospect grading. Now I am not saying theirs is the best/most accurate or anything like that, but it is one of the most accessible and covers a big swath of players. By their standard, an 8.0 grade is a "perfect prospect". From the 6.7-6.9 range is a player who projects to be an instant year 1 starter, and 7.0 and above is going to be Pro Bowl or All-Pro type talents.

This year Travis Hunter is far and away graded the best WR prospect at 6.89, but I don't know how much of that is influenced by his CB play too. It seems like many project him as a primary CB with reps worked in at WR, but who knows.
Either way, after that there is a noticeable drop and their next highest graded WR is Luther Burden III at 6.43, which is "Will become a good starter within two years". And the rest of the early prospects are all right in that range:
Matthew Golden - 6.42
Tet McMillan - 6.40
Emeka Egbuka - 6.37 ("Will eventually be plus starter")
Jack Bech - 6.34
Jayden Higgins - 6.33
Jalen Royals - 6.32
(And then you have guys like Ayomanor and Horton at 6.19, Badger and D!ke at 6+, etc)

Like I said, not a perfect metric, but point is that I think there is just not a huge gap between the "top prospects" or "first round grades" and the guys who will be available outside of the first round. So it would not surprise me to see some guys fall , while at the same time see some “reaches” for players who are in reality not that far off in grading from some of the guys projected ahead of them…

 

[OldSchool101]

I am leaning towards DT Derrick Harmon at this point. He is very good both against the run and pass rush. I think it is what this defense could really use. Clark had a down year and Wyatt is good at pass rush but is a liability in the run game. This is the best year to add a DT in some time and we should take advantage.

I think if OT Simmons checks out medically then he is going much earlier.

I think the top 3 CBs will be gone by 23.

So the greatest value to add is at DT. I think Grant will also be gone.

So the pick is Harmon.

Amen.
DL is also a position of need and availability in depth in the draft.
We could justify a successor for Kenny Clark and a replacement for TJ. This draft offers good options for both types

 

[DoURant]

I think Will Johnson has to be in the discussion at #23 now, with his possible drop down the board. If Hairston is a possibility, then he should be also.

 

[Dantés]

I think Will Johnson has to be in the discussion at #23 now, with his possible drop down the board. If Hairston is a possibility, then he should be also.

What I've read/heard many times is that if Packers' doctors fail a guy, medically, the FO takes him off the board.

So guys that are projected to go lower than expected because of medicals, like Harmon or Johnson, could end being totally ignored by the Packers.

Or there could be real concerns, but not enough for them to be "failed" medically.

Personally, Johnson scares me. It doesn't seem that he was right at any point in 2024 and he wasn't capable of really working out during the entire process.

 

[tynimiller]

What I've read/heard many times is that if Packers' doctors fail a guy, medically, the FO takes him off the board.

So guys that are projected to go lower than expected because of medicals, like Harmon or Johnson, could end being totally ignored by the Packers.

Or there could be real concerns, but not enough for them to be "failed" medically.

Personally, Johnson scares me. It doesn't seem that he was right at any point in 2024 and he wasn't capable of really working out during the entire process.

Will Johnson and Benjamin Morrison both could EASILY be All Pros or out of the league by their third or second season due to medical issues....which is CRAZY gamble.

 

[DoURant]

Will Johnson and Benjamin Morrison both could EASILY be All Pros or out of the league by their third or second season due to medical issues....which is CRAZY gamble.

Johnson's big injury last year was Turf Toe, which can take a long time to heal. He is a boom or bust guy, but being a Michigan fan, and watching them play every week, he always seemed to make that big play when they needed one.

 

[Dantés]

Johnson's big injury last year was Turf Toe, which can take a long time to heal. He is a boom or bust guy, but being a Michigan fan, and watching them play every week, he always seemed to make that big play when they needed one.

What's being reported is that he has more medical red flags than the toe.

 

[gopkrs]

What's being reported is that he has more medical red flags than the toe.

Do you know what?

 

[DoURant]

What's being reported is that he has more medical red flags than the toe.

It does make a guy nervous trying to possibly replace an oft injured CB (Jaire) by drafting a CB with injury concerns.

 

[Dantés]

Do you know what?

The rumor is that his knee is a long term concern.

 

[DoURant]

Do you know what?

He also had a hamstring injury during the draft process.

 

[gopkrs]

He also had a hamstring injury during the draft process.

Both things would make it all right for us to wait until the 7th

 

[DoURant]

Both things would make it all right for us to wait until the 7th

I honestly think he's going in the 1st Rd, just not in the 1st half of this draft, like he was projected early in the process. If he somehow doesn't, he will be one of the 1st picks on day two tomorrow.

 

[tynimiller]

What's being reported is that he has more medical red flags than the toe.

Correct

 

[Dantés]

I just heard Josh Norris say that some people have suggested to him that Nick Emmanwori's best fit might be at corner.

I have no idea! Have not watched a lick of any safety in this whole class. That just got my attention.

 

[Thirteen Below]

As with most Drafts, there are likely
a grouping of 5+ Players that will both not be on the board by 23 AND the Packers likely won’t touch because of little Positional value. That’s 2 QB’s, 1 RB, 2 TE’s and might include 1 Safety. I’d argue we are invested heavily in those areas as of recent. If you remove those 5+ players, plus add 1-2 Players that could go higher than our #23, it’s basically 22-6 or just ~16 players ahead of us. We’re looking in that 2nd to 5th best player at their position and often the 3rd or 4th best at OUR position our interest.
I guess what I’m offering is we should get a dang good player at #23 and we’ll have our choice of a fine group of talent. Maybe not a Top 5 overall type non QB but not far from it either.

I'm taking a little different look at the draft than I ever have before.

I've been looking at 4 position groups, comparing the 2025 class to the consensus projected 2026 class and matching those players with Green Bay's needs. The position groups I looked at are (in no particular order) CB, DL, WR, and OL. There's an argument to be made that (on that basis) the Packers might be most likely to go CB with their first pick, WR with their 2nd, and DL with their 3rd.

At the CB position group, the 2025 crop appears right now to have significantly more elite players than the 2026 group. The projected 26 crew has far fewer top players but a healthy supply of Day 2 and 3 depth players. If CB is a a strong need, you'll probably get a much better player in the 1st round this year than you will next year - even in the late 1st.

The 2025 wide receiver position group is stronger than the projected 2026 class in both top-end talent and overall depth. 2025 has a half dozen or so legitimate 1st-round, impact player talents, and several players likely to slip to Day 2 that are still as good as if not better than most of the top WRs next year. We can get a much better WR in Round 2 this year than we would likely get next year even in the late first, and anyway, WR is an immediate need. I don't think we wait longer than our 2nd Round pick to draft a receiver, and he'll be a better value than anyone we would get next spring.

The 2025 DL bunch is the deepest and strongest position group of the draft; 1/3 of the 1st round picks could be DL, and the 2026 class is a very weak position group. According to the consensus rankings, there are DL prospects that will probably slide into Round 3 this year who would be legitimate Day 1 picks next year. This is a draft where we can probably get a starting caliber DL in the 3rd.

OL is a little more complicated... a lot depends on Morgan - what he is able to do, and what Green Bay has planned for him. But this seems to be a position where we can afford to kick the can down the road for another year - draft a couple of Day 3 players and see how they pan out, but spend the Day 1 and early 2 picks on OL next year. There are as many as 15 projected OL starters coming out in 2026, and tackles are particularly abundant. Even drafting late in the 1st in 26, we'd have a good chance at getting a Year One starter.

 

[Schultz]

If true, the 2026 draft may be the weakest draft ever.

 

[Thirteen Below]

If true, the 2026 draft may be the weakest draft ever.

I've seen people comparing it to 2019 and 2022, both of which were rather weak drafts. QB and OT are considered quite strong, IOL is better than this year, and while DT (and DL in general) are not on a par with 2025, EDG is considered strong - not like this yearn, but still good.

 

[Dantés]

I find it objectively hilarious that like three times I went through all these tendencies to narrow down the first down options for the Packers and then they took:

1) A wide receiver
2) Under 6', under 200 lbs
3) Without a full composite score
4) Who came in for a visit

LOL

 

[DoURant]

I find it objectively hilarious that like three times I went through all these tendencies to narrow down the first down options for the Packers and then they took:

1) A wide receiver
2) Under 6', under 200 lbs
3) Without a full composite score
4) Who came in for a visit

LOL

Might have to rename it Dante's Law... as Murphy has nothing over you.

 

[tynimiller]

I find it objectively hilarious that like three times I went through all these tendencies to narrow down the first down options for the Packers and then they took:

1) A wide receiver
2) Under 6', under 200 lbs
3) Without a full composite score
4) Who came in for a visit

LOL

It really was a pick opposite of everything “typical”

 

[Thirteen Below]

It really was a pick opposite of everything “typical”

And unlike some of Gute's Day One picks, it's not a "project" - not someone who is expected to grow into their potential over their first couple of years.... it's a "what can you do for us right now, this fall" pick.

I had a strong feeling he was going to prioritize that this year, because it seems apparent that he is fully aware that this is our moment, and that the future is now. Picking a top-tier WR who can step in and start Day One rather than a guy who will be ready to start at a key position by 26 or even 27 suggests to me that he sees the team the same way a lot of us do, and is pushing all his chips into the middle of the table right now.

One other thing I would say about this not being a typical Gutekunst "Day One" pick is that this is not a typical 1st Round to begin with - by the time we got to #23, we were already in territory where there were a number of players that most people didn't expect to still be available. Green Bay had a list of players that were likely (or possible) to be up for grabs at 23, and I imagine Golden was on that list somewhere, but I think it's unlikely that Gutekunst actually expected it.

So he adjusted his draft board on the fly, as a good GM should do. Like TT in 2005, and Gutekunst himself in 2020, he said "well, hell, as long he's still there, I'm going for it."

I think this kid is going to be good - serious impact player even in his rookie year.

Can hardly wait to see what Gute comes up with tonight; I think there will be some serious surprises, and some people will be outraged. But I believe Gute will will outsmart a number of draftwatchers.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It really was a pick opposite of everything “typical”

Last night was a perfect storm for Golden to go to GB at #23. I think everyone else who had been mocked to GB at that spot was gone. I didn't expect that.

I still like the pick. Golden has two outstanding traits - speed and good hands, and throw in that he played for a very competitive conference. If he can create separation most of the time, height is not a huge factor. Safe to say he won't be high pointing many guys.

 

[tynimiller]

And unlike some of Gute's Day One picks, it's not a "project" - not someone who is expected to grow into their potential over their first couple of years.... it's a "what can you do for us right now, this fall" pick.

I had a strong feeling he was going to prioritize that this year, because it seems apparent that he is fully aware that this is our moment, and that the future is now. Picking a top-tier WR who can step in and start Day One rather than a guy who will be ready to start at a key position by 26 or even 27 suggests to me that he sees the team the same way a lot of us do, and is pushing all his chips into the middle of the table right now.

One other thing I would say about this not being a typical Gutekunst "Day One" pick is that this is not a typical 1st Round to begin with - by the time we got to #23, we were already in territory where there were a number of players that most people didn't expect to still be available. Green Bay had a list of players that were likely (or possible) to be up for grabs at 23, and I imagine Golden was on that list somewhere, but I think it's unlikely that Gutekunst actually expected it.

So he adjusted his draft board on the fly, as a good GM should do. Like TT in 2005, and Gutekunst himself in 2020, he said "well, hell, as long he's still there, I'm going for it."

I think this kid is going to be good - serious impact player even in his rookie year.

Can hardly wait to see what Gute comes up with tonight; I think there will be some serious surprises, and some people will be outraged. But I believe Gute will will outsmart a number of draftwatchers.

I disagree strongly on the not a project for Golden, his projection in my scouting and my expectation of where his floor is coming in and ceiling potential is honestly why I had Higgins ahead of him and even Royals - because Golden really just this last year, and truly second half of the season started showing a much improved route tree, footwork and skills which he has to continue to grow to dominate at the next level.

I've shared elsewhere, while he isn't the pick I'd have done - I 100% understand it because of what he might be able to become - which I personally think he can be that Devonta Smith type production guy for us as his ceiling and his floor to me is worst case we get an elite version of MVS type guy.

Golden has to improve mightedly on two things for me personally - his blocking ability...if he wants to stay on the field he has gotta illustrate a willingness to take this role serious, honestly MVS is a prime example of a guy that likely stayed on the field despite struggles because he became a legit willing and skilled blocker. Golden also as he builds his frame is going to have to learn to fight through contact both in press man plays or after the catch, he has been very easy to tackle.

Elite athlete, well above average hands, a refined route tree with young branches, excellent footwork and explosiveness that cannot be coached or taught. There is a lot to like in him for even the harshest critic.

 

[tynimiller]

Last night was a perfect storm for Golden to go to GB at #23. I think everyone else who had been mocked to GB at that spot was gone. I didn't expect that.

I still like the pick. Golden has two outstanding traits - speed and good hands, and throw in that he played for a very competitive conference. If he can create separation most of the time, height is not a huge factor. Safe to say he won't be high pointing many guys.

He played at Texas one season...so he hasn't really seen high level competition for long at all.

He's young too folks...a trait lot rarer now due to covid and NIL money.