Yeah, my general sense/vibe that I get is that this draft is just not a particularly strong one, and definitely not a very top-heavy one.
I think conventional wisdom would tell you that the "average" draft class probably has about 15 prospects with a "true" first round grade. Of course you're going to have 32 first-round picks, but I don't think there's EVER a class that comes out with 32 "first round grades". A really strong/deep class might have 18, 20, maybe touching into the 20s for first-round graded players.
This year, the buzz I'm hearing is that for most teams it's more like 10-12 guys with a "first round grade" and the rest is kind of up in the air. In fact I have seen a couple of draft analysts saying it's got one of the lowest number of first-round graded prospects (if not THE lowest number) on record and/or in recent history.
Now you could make a case that it is also a "deep" draft, in the sense that there seems to be a lot of parity and/or not a ton of discrepancy between some of the rounds.
Take for instance the WR position and look at NFL.com's prospect grading. Now I am not saying theirs is the best/most accurate or anything like that, but it is one of the most accessible and covers a big swath of players. By their standard, an 8.0 grade is a "perfect prospect". From the 6.7-6.9 range is a player who projects to be an instant year 1 starter, and 7.0 and above is going to be Pro Bowl or All-Pro type talents.
This year Travis Hunter is far and away graded the best WR prospect at 6.89, but I don't know how much of that is influenced by his CB play too. It seems like many project him as a primary CB with reps worked in at WR, but who knows.
Either way, after that there is a noticeable drop and their next highest graded WR is Luther Burden III at 6.43, which is "Will become a good starter within two years". And the rest of the early prospects are all right in that range:
Matthew Golden - 6.42
Tet McMillan - 6.40
Emeka Egbuka - 6.37 ("Will eventually be plus starter")
Jack Bech - 6.34
Jayden Higgins - 6.33
Jalen Royals - 6.32
(And then you have guys like Ayomanor and Horton at 6.19, Badger and D!ke at 6+, etc)
Like I said, not a perfect metric, but point is that I think there is just not a huge gap between the "top prospects" or "first round grades" and the guys who will be available outside of the first round. So it would not surprise me to see some guys fall , while at the same time see some “reaches” for players who are in reality not that far off in grading from some of the guys projected ahead of them…
I think conventional wisdom would tell you that the "average" draft class probably has about 15 prospects with a "true" first round grade. Of course you're going to have 32 first-round picks, but I don't think there's EVER a class that comes out with 32 "first round grades". A really strong/deep class might have 18, 20, maybe touching into the 20s for first-round graded players.
This year, the buzz I'm hearing is that for most teams it's more like 10-12 guys with a "first round grade" and the rest is kind of up in the air. In fact I have seen a couple of draft analysts saying it's got one of the lowest number of first-round graded prospects (if not THE lowest number) on record and/or in recent history.
Now you could make a case that it is also a "deep" draft, in the sense that there seems to be a lot of parity and/or not a ton of discrepancy between some of the rounds.
Take for instance the WR position and look at NFL.com's prospect grading. Now I am not saying theirs is the best/most accurate or anything like that, but it is one of the most accessible and covers a big swath of players. By their standard, an 8.0 grade is a "perfect prospect". From the 6.7-6.9 range is a player who projects to be an instant year 1 starter, and 7.0 and above is going to be Pro Bowl or All-Pro type talents.
This year Travis Hunter is far and away graded the best WR prospect at 6.89, but I don't know how much of that is influenced by his CB play too. It seems like many project him as a primary CB with reps worked in at WR, but who knows.
Either way, after that there is a noticeable drop and their next highest graded WR is Luther Burden III at 6.43, which is "Will become a good starter within two years". And the rest of the early prospects are all right in that range:
Matthew Golden - 6.42
Tet McMillan - 6.40
Emeka Egbuka - 6.37 ("Will eventually be plus starter")
Jack Bech - 6.34
Jayden Higgins - 6.33
Jalen Royals - 6.32
(And then you have guys like Ayomanor and Horton at 6.19, Badger and D!ke at 6+, etc)
Like I said, not a perfect metric, but point is that I think there is just not a huge gap between the "top prospects" or "first round grades" and the guys who will be available outside of the first round. So it would not surprise me to see some guys fall , while at the same time see some “reaches” for players who are in reality not that far off in grading from some of the guys projected ahead of them…
