First Round Prospect Discussions Specifically

[tynimiller]

Ok think about this with me for a minute.

Let's hypothetically say that the Packers want OL or DL in round 1 (they may not) and do not want a WR (they may).

Well if you have all the top receivers in for visits, show a ton of interest in them, and attend their pro days, etc. you are signaling WR interest to the rest of the league. They've done this very successfully, many of the really plugged in guys are mocking receiver to GB.

Now think about what that does for you. Receiver teams picking ahead of you are less likely to trade behind you because they're worried you'll take their receiver. Receiver teams picking behind you are more likely to trade ahead of you for the same reason.

So you're encouraging more receivers to go top 22, which increases the odds that the OL or DL you want gets pushed down into your lap at #23.

And let's also say, hypothetically, you have your eye on some receivers on day 2. Well if lots of receivers go in picks 1-22, there are now fewer teams picking in front of you in rounds 2 and 3 with a pressing WR need.

So even if there's no genuine interest in receiver, there are good reasons to keep up appearances.

And of course, they could break tendency and just draft one.

Precisely! Which is why I’m hoping as time goes if Browns, Giants and Jets all don’t by chance grab a QB one of them could be wanting to jump to 23 for a QB

 

[OldSchool101]

Just playing the odds.

The Packers have gone 23 years without drafting a receiver in the first round.

What's more, they typically don't bring their 1st round target in for a top 30 visit, and all the top receivers visited minus Burden.

I love Egbuka and Golden and would be stoked for either to be Packers, but the odds say otherwise.

Ohhhhhh! THAT is why you removed top 30 that was my question.

 

[DoURant]

Two 1st Rd prospects that are reported to have made really strong impressions in the interview process, NFL wide, are Jalon Walker and Emeka Egbuka. Makes me think Egbuka making it to #23 might be a little more less likely with this information.

 

[OldSchool101]

As with most Drafts, there are likely
a grouping of 5+ Players that will both not be on the board by 23 AND the Packers likely won’t touch because of little Positional value. That’s 2 QB’s, 1 RB, 2 TE’s and might include 1 Safety. I’d argue we are invested heavily in those areas as of recent. If you remove those 5+ players, plus add 1-2 Players that could go higher than our #23 that are consensus later Day1 etc… it’s basically 22-6 or just ~16 players ahead of us. We’re looking in that 2nd to 5th best player at their position and often the 3rd or 4th best at OUR position our interest.
I guess what I’m offering is we should get a dang good player at #23 and we’ll have our choice of a fine group of talent. Maybe not a Top 5 overall type non QB but not far from it either.

 

[OldSchool101]

I kinda like the idea of upgrading DT and then chasing a WR using #54. Those are both areas I think we could get some juice this year.
We’re likely looking at the 2nd or 3rd best rated interior DL from College

I’m not even opposed moving slightly into a top 50 area to nail it at WR, such as throwing a 5th at package for a WR or swapping a 4th and 6th etc.
Then in RD 3,4 or 3rd, 5th, getting some strong depth pieces at OL or CB or another LB etc

 

[tynimiller]

I’m dreaming Seattle watches a guy high on their board still there and offers us both of their seconds for 23 lol

 

[DoURant]

I’m dreaming Seattle watches a guy high on their board still there and offers us both of their seconds for 23 lol

It never hurts to dream...

 

[Schultz]

Ok think about this with me for a minute.

Let's hypothetically say that the Packers want OL or DL in round 1 (they may not) and do not want a WR (they may).

Well if you have all the top receivers in for visits, show a ton of interest in them, and attend their pro days, etc. you are signaling WR interest to the rest of the league. They've done this very successfully, many of the really plugged in guys are mocking receiver to GB.

Now think about what that does for you. Receiver teams picking ahead of you are less likely to trade behind you because they're worried you'll take their receiver. Receiver teams picking behind you are more likely to trade ahead of you for the same reason.

So you're encouraging more receivers to go top 22, which increases the odds that the OL or DL you want gets pushed down into your lap at #23.

And let's also say, hypothetically, you have your eye on some receivers on day 2. Well if lots of receivers go in picks 1-22, there are now fewer teams picking in front of you in rounds 2 and 3 with a pressing WR need.

So even if there's no genuine interest in receiver, there are good reasons to keep up appearances.

And of course, they could break tendency and just draft one.

I get point #1. I actually wonder if that is what JAX is doing with this recent Jeanty smoke. Are they hoping the Raiders, Bears or Cowboys make better offers to trade up with them to get Jeanty? Do they love W. Campbell and hope one of those teams trade up to #4. As to point number 2. If more WRs go in picks 1-22 and there are fewer WR needy teams picking in front of you doesn't that also mean, there are fewer WRs to pick from?

 

[Schultz]

Of the 15 guys attending the Draft, 3 were Top 30 visits for the Packers.

Tetairoa McMillan, Matthew Golden, and Shemar Stewart... we are linked in quite a few Mock Drafts with 2 of these guys. Golden and Stewart. Not saying it's going to happen, but with the Draft in Green Bay, I'm sure the league would like to see our pick attending in person.

There would have been 5, but Mykel Williams and Josh Simmons backed out, after originally committing to attend.

Wow! I thought at one point I read 24 guys would be attending the draft. Maybe the Pack 1st rounder won't be at the draft because they trade out of the 1st round.

 

[DoURant]

Wow! I thought at one point I read 24 guys would be attending the draft. Maybe the Pack 1st rounder won't be at the draft because they trade out of the 1st round.

A lot of guys decided not to attend, I know of at least 3 guys that have backed out after originally committing they were, and then they gained 1, who decided to attend beginning of last week.

 

[DoURant]

I wouldn't dislike Walter Nolen if we drafted him, but how many guys his size do we need on this roster? Losing a player with the size of Slaton makes me feel that DL needs to be a BIG guy. I just think there are crucual short yardage situations where you need to have some real beef on the DL, and this roster doesn't have any. Now if having a roster full of 3T guys is the route this team wants to go, then bring Nolen on... if not, I'll pass.

 

[AmishMafia]

I am leaning towards DT Derrick Harmon at this point. He is very good both against the run and pass rush. I think it is what this defense could really use. Clark had a down year and Wyatt is good at pass rush but is a liability in the run game. This is the best year to add a DT in some time and we should take advantage.

I think if OT Simmons checks out medically then he is going much earlier.

I think the top 3 CBs will be gone by 23.

So the greatest value to add is at DT. I think Grant will also be gone.

So the pick is Harmon.

 

[DoURant]

I am leaning towards DT Derrick Harmon at this point. He is very good both against the run and pass rush. I think it is what this defense could really use. Clark had a down year and Wyatt is good at pass rush but is a liability in the run game. This is the beat year to add a DT than in some time.

I think if OT Simmons checks out medically then he is going much earlier.

I think the top 3 CBs will be gone by 23.

So the greatest value to add is at DT. I think Grant will also be gone.

So the pick is Harmon.

I would like Harmon or Grant if they take a DT in the 1st. They are my top 2 personal choices in the 1st, but I'm skeptical that either make it to our pick.

 

[DoURant]

Wow! I thought at one point I read 24 guys would be attending the draft. Maybe the Pack 1st rounder won't be at the draft because they trade out of the 1st round.

That 24 in my post was referring to we were up to that many Top 30 visits.... but I forgot to add (Top 30) to that post. I have edited the post to reflect that. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Schultz]

I read it somewhere else. The headline was that Shedaur would not be attending the draft and then they listed what I thought was 24 guys who were invited.

 

[Dantés]

If WR, I want Egbuka.

If OL, I want Conerly.

If DT, I want Harmon.

If DE, I want Ezeiruaku.

If CB, I want Hairston.

I don't want them to take any other position.

 

[tynimiller]

If WR, I want Egbuka.

If OL, I want Conerly.

If DT, I want Harmon.

If DE, I want Ezeiruaku.

If CB, I want Hairston.

I don't want them to take any other position.

I was literally coming to say this. All of these are possible with none being crazy unrealistic. In truth if Buccs are on the clock and Ezeiruaku or Egbuka is there I'm fine with trade up...

And in truth if say four or three of these guys are available, I'd not say no to a trade back a few spots and grab one.

 

[Dantés]

I was literally coming to say this. All of these are possible with none being crazy unrealistic. In truth if Buccs are on the clock and Ezeiruaku or Egbuka is there I'm fine with trade up...

And in truth if say four or three of these guys are available, I'd not say no to a trade back a few spots and grab one.

A trade up for Ezeiruaku would not surprise me.

 

[Snoops]

It’s going to be Hairston or Amos I think they want Higgins as their WR I hope they trade down with the browns who want sanders if he makes it past the Steelers. DL is in play too.

 

[Dantés]

Ok I have done this several times now, but I'm going to do it once more and if you tune it out, I don't blame you.

1) Given historical track record and needs, the Packers are most likely to draft DL, OL, or CB this year.

2) They like guys with an 8.0+ RAS.

3) They love Senior Bowlers.

4) They usually don't draft top 30 visits in round 1.

5) They virtually never draft the names that are popularly mocked to them.

Who does that leave?

Mike Green, DE, Bowling Green
Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, Boston College
Josh Conerly, OL, Oregon
Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State

And then a couple dark horses who are projected later:

Aireontae Ersery, OL, Minnesota
Landon Jackson, DE, Arkansas

 

[tynimiller]

Ok I have done this several times now, but I'm going to do it once more and if you tune it out, I don't blame you.

1) Given historical track record and needs, the Packers are most likely to draft DL, OL, or CB this year.

2) They like guys with an 8.0+ RAS.

3) They love Senior Bowlers.

4) They usually don't draft top 30 visits in round 1.

5) They virtually never draft the names that are popularly mocked to them.

Who does that leave?

Mike Green, DE, Bowling Green
Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, Boston College
Josh Conerly, OL, Oregon
Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State

And then a couple dark horses who are projected later:

Aireontae Ersery, OL, Minnesota
Landon Jackson, DE, Arkansas

Using those parameters I do minimum think Darius Alexander is worthy of the darkhorse. I've seen him mocked in the first by many, he is a consensus Top 50 nearly across the board, senior bowl standout, not a Top 30 and 8+ RAS

 

[gopkrs]

If we don't draft someone I have heard of or is someone slated to go way later; I will be disappointed. The first round is not for ****ing around imho.

 

[tynimiller]

If we don't draft someone I have heard of or is someone slated to go way later; I will be disappointed. The first round is not for ****ing around imho.

Anything beyond typically the first 10-15 each year I expect anyone within the consensus Top 50 or so to be honest. Many years teams don't even have a dozen guys rated as "first round grades" and their differences between say their 20th prospect on their big board might be minimal to their 44th or what not.

I would be baffled if someone who has half paid attention (and just being on this forum you are well more aware than that) won't recognize all the first round picks taken. I'd venture most people on this board will likely know all but maybe a handful of the top 100 selected. May only know name, but you'll know them.

 

[Dantés]

If we don't draft someone I have heard of or is someone slated to go way later; I will be disappointed. The first round is not for ****ing around imho.

So many people who cover the draft professionally have said this year that teams have similar grades on guys from pick ~12 to about pick ~75. Could be a wild one.

 

[tynimiller]

So many people who cover the draft professionally have said this year that teams have similar grades on guys from pick ~12 to about pick ~75. Could be a wild one.

Which is no doubt gonna head to many "fools" declaring some reaches....