First Round Prospect Discussions Specifically

[Schultz]

IMO. Need #4. Edge. Neither starter has an expiring contract. Enagbare is a longshot IMO to be resigned. IMO they would like to resign Cox. Round 2 possibles. Uman, L. Jackson, Swinson, Stewart (MI). Round 3 Burch, Kennard, Gillotte, Sawyer, Oladejo.

 

[Schultz]

#3. IMO. WR. multiple expiring contracts. I do not believe any are pick #23 worthy. They probably do. If so, then if their top guy falls to 23 then take him. AT #54 Egbuka, Golden, Higgins or Harris. #87. Royals. #124 S. Williams. #159 Thornton or Horton. I could see them double dipping here. 7th round- Brooks.

 

[gopkrs]

This is the time of the year where I keep flip flopping on both what I think the Packers will do and what I want them to do.

Jahdae Barron would be great. He has all the versatility you could hope for, which becomes an even bigger weapon when you can change your defense schematically without changing players.

Offensive Line is a big issue next season with both of our starting tackles being FAs. Walker has surprised and is a good player. Suspect he will want a big payday but i also suspect the Packers want more run blocking out of that position. Simmons is very athletic, he does a great job of maintaining balance and is able to move smoothly and find his blocks at the 2nd level. Also saw where someone said he is one of the best at screen blocking. I think he would be perfect for our blocking scheme.

But there is also Conerly who is a clone of Morgan - so you know the Packers will like him. He is a year younger and may be a bit more developed - but Morgan missed some time with injury so that shouldnt be surprising.

The only other position we might address at 23, IMHO, is DI. And that is likely as there are so many good ones that should be available at our spot.

What I am thinking, is that the 1st round will be a series of runs. I suspect there will be a run of OTs before the Packers pick. Starting at the Bears at 10 there are 7 or 8 teams that need OL help before our pick. I could see Conerly and Simmons gone by our pick. Maybe we will start the run of DTs or CBs. There are only 3 CBs worthy of 23: Will Johnson, Jahdae Barron, and Trey Amos. I'm not sure about about Amos and think we should wait later and grab one of the next tier guys, but I woudn't be surprised if he is the pick.


Here is my little board for guys who I expect to be available:
CB Barron
CB Johnson
DT Grant
OT Simmons
DT Harmon
OT Conerly
CB Amos
DT Nolen

If that would be who we could pick from; I'd be pleased. I guess a case could be made to trade down 4 or 5 picks. But I don't know if you would get much return on that. I like taking Barron. Have read good things about Harmon. So I think we should stay pat and pick who we think helps us out the most. Nice list to choose from.

 

[Schultz]

#2. DT. If they plan on resigning Wyatt this drops in priority. Clark is a big cap hit. That could leave them with only 2 guys who have played meaningful snaps after this season. #23 Harmon or Grant. #54 Collins or Sanders. #87- Walker, Alexander, O.N. Lott. #124- Farmer, Caldwell, Turner.

 

[Schultz]

#1. OL. 3 expiring contracts plus a big cap hit. #23- Simmons, Conerly, Zabel. @54. Ersery, Savilano, Mbow, Milum, Booker. #87- C. Williams, Trapilo, D. Jackson. #124- Ratledge, Slater, Belton, Grant.

 

[tynimiller]

This is the time of the year where I keep flip flopping on both what I think the Packers will do and what I want them to do.

Jahdae Barron would be great. He has all the versatility you could hope for, which becomes an even bigger weapon when you can change your defense schematically without changing players.

Offensive Line is a big issue next season with both of our starting tackles being FAs. Walker has surprised and is a good player. Suspect he will want a big payday but i also suspect the Packers want more run blocking out of that position. Simmons is very athletic, he does a great job of maintaining balance and is able to move smoothly and find his blocks at the 2nd level. Also saw where someone said he is one of the best at screen blocking. I think he would be perfect for our blocking scheme.

But there is also Conerly who is a clone of Morgan - so you know the Packers will like him. He is a year younger and may be a bit more developed - but Morgan missed some time with injury so that shouldnt be surprising.

The only other position we might address at 23, IMHO, is DI. And that is likely as there are so many good ones that should be available at our spot.

What I am thinking, is that the 1st round will be a series of runs. I suspect there will be a run of OTs before the Packers pick. Starting at the Bears at 10 there are 7 or 8 teams that need OL help before our pick. I could see Conerly and Simmons gone by our pick. Maybe we will start the run of DTs or CBs. There are only 3 CBs worthy of 23: Will Johnson, Jahdae Barron, and Trey Amos. I'm not sure about about Amos and think we should wait later and grab one of the next tier guys, but I woudn't be surprised if he is the pick.


Here is my little board for guys who I expect to be available:
CB Barron
CB Johnson
DT Grant
OT Simmons
DT Harmon
OT Conerly
CB Amos
DT Nolen

You expect the two highest consensus pure CBs to both be available??? That’s a serious take.

 

[DoURant]

Who is TJ?

TJ Slaton, he was a FA and signed with the Bengals

 

[AmishMafia]

You expect the two highest consensus pure CBs to both be available??? That’s a serious take.

No, I don't. I worded that poorly. PLayers I think have a chance of being there and of the ones I list, I think 3 to 5 will be available.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Love this post. I am going to give my amateur thoughts at each position 1 at a time. IMO CB is #5 need. Not even including JA the Pack have 4 CBs who have started in the NFL. None of them have expiring contracts. With that said I do take Barron or Johnson if there at #23. I would also take Revel, Amos or Thomas at #54. After that Tyni's guy Marshall 5th or 6th round or my guy Z. Frazier (UTSA) 6th or 7th round. If they feel Hadden or King are NFL worthy they do not need to force CB at all. IMO.

Agree that CB has fallen down the immediate needs list. I don't think Gluten will reach early for OL either. #23 is more and more likely to be the best DT available, maybe Edge. If one of the big name WRs drops, that will be the pick.

 

[OldSchool101]

That’s the thing. As far as RD1 I don’t think we are pressed to draft at any singular position. I’d take the highest ceiling player across any of OT, CB, DE, DT, WR. If Brian has a guy like Simmons ranked #12 etc. evaluation wise (if healthy) and he’s at #23 I’m all totally good with that. Partly because I think OL is already important, but especially if we have a RB like Jacobs still in his prime. We saw how lethal Philly was last year on Offense. That’s what a stellar OL paired with a high graded RB offers.
Simmons in particular went down in Mid-October, so he’s likely going to be primed by Mid-Season. Makes a big difference in injury timing had he went down Mid-Dec etc.

As far as impact my hope is if we did get an impact player it would be WR, DL or CB. I think if the draft board falls more normal to predictions we’ll take a DL at #23. My guess is Golden and Barron are gone before our selection.

 

[Dantés]

Here's an interesting factor heading into Thursday:

The Packers love to draft their top 30 visits, but they rarely do so in the first round.

Since Gutekunst took over, the only first rounders who were top 30 visits were Jordan Love and Devonte Wyatt.

Love was a virtual covid visit and it stands to reason that you would take every possible exposure to a QB you can get because of how important the position is.

Wyatt also makes sense as an exception because he had the alleged domestic violence charge that needed investigation.

But otherwise, they haven't drafted top 30 guys in round one. I suspect it's because they don't want a lot of bread crumbs around their primary targets so that teams don't read their mail and leapfrog them.

So here are the guys that came in for visits this year who would be in the first round range:

-T. McMillan, WR, AZ
-M. Golden, WR, UT
-E. Egbuka, WR, OSU
-J. Simmons, OT, OSU
-W. Nolen, DT, MISS
-M. Williams, DE, UGA
-S. Stewart, DE, TAMU
-J. Pearce, DE, TEN
-S. Revel, CB, ECU
-T. Amos, CB, MISS

So if you remove those guys, plus the consensus top 10, here's what's left of the top 40 at WR, OL, DL, and CB:

-W. Johnson, CB, MICH (#12)
-K. Banks, OL, UT (#13)
-J. Barron, CB, UT (#15)
-M. Green, DE, BGU (#18)
-D. Harmon, DT, OR (#23)
-K. Grant, DT, MICH (#26)
-G. Zabel, OL, NDSU (#27)
-T. Booker, OL, UA (#30)
-D. Ezeiruaku, DE, BC (#32)
-J. Conerly, OL, OR (#34)
-M. Hairston, CB, UK (#35)
-L. Burden, WR, MIZZ (#36)
-D. Jackson, OL, OSU (#37)
-N. Scourton, DE, TAMU (#40)

Personally, I think that Banks, Green, and Harmon are very safely gone. I would also suspect, but am less confident, that Johnson and Grant will go. I don't see them drafting Zabel, Booker, Burden, Jackson, or Scourton. So what does that leave?

-Jahdae Barron, DB, Texas
-Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, Boston College
-Josh Conerly, OL, Oregon
-Max Hairston, CB, Kentucky

 

[Schultz]

If GB wants a WR in round 1 IMO this is best case scenario. LV rates CB as their highest need. DAL takes Jeanty if Raiders don't. SEA goes Guard. DEN likes Hampton over the WRs. They could get the 1st or 2nd WR off the board. Worst case scenario. LV considers WR their top need. DAL goes WR because of the depth at RB. SEA feels they can get a Guard 50 or 52 and take a WR. Jeanty is gone and they feel there are other backs comparable to Hampton. ARZ is also a sleeper to go WR though Edge seems more likely. This would lead to the 4th WR off the board. As always this is just my amateur opinion.

 

[Schultz]

If GB wants a CB in round 1 IMO this is the best scenario. LV goes RB or WR. CAR goes Edge. IMO they would be deciding between the 1st Edge and the 1st CB off the board. ATL goes Edge. LB Campbell is still on the board for Tampa. LAC go Edge to replace Bosa. This could lead to the 1st or 2nd CB off the board. Worst case. LV goes CB. Campbell is gone by the time TB picks. Any of CAR, ATL or LAC take a Corner thinking the depth at Edge lasts into round 2. I do not think they all will pass on Edge. Could be looking at the 4th CB off the board. IMO.

 

[Dantés]

Here's my final attempt to narrow down a list of likeliest players for #23:

-Removed the consensus top 10.
-Removed others who I totally expect to be long gone (e.g. Harmon, Banks).
-Removed others who I don't think will be in play that early (e.g. Jackson).
-Removed players who are coming off torn patellar tendons.
-Removed QB, RB, TE, WR, LB, and SAF.
-Removed top 30 visits.
-Removed sub 7.0 RAS.
-Moved Senior Bowlers to the top of the list.

1. Grey Zabel, OL, NDSU
2. Josh Conerly, OL, OR
3. Maxwell Hairston, CB, UK
4. Aireontae Ersery, OL, MIN
5. Will Johnson, CB, MICH
6. Jadhae Barron, DB, UT
7. Kenneth Grant, DT, MICH
8. Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, BC
9. Donovan Jackson, OL, OSU
10. Nic Scourton, DE, TAMU

I feel really strongly that the Packers will draft one of these guys.

This also makes sense of why other teams think GB would go OL.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

Why would you eliminate WR as a possibility at 23?

Here's my final attempt to narrow down a list of likeliest players for #23:

-Removed the consensus top 10.
-Removed others who I totally expect to be long gone (e.g. Harmon, Banks).
-Removed others who I don't think will be in play that early (e.g. Jackson).
-Removed players who are coming off torn patellar tendons.
-Removed QB, RB, TE, WR, LB, and SAF.
-Removed top 30 visits.
-Removed sub 7.0 RAS.
-Moved Senior Bowlers to the top of the list.

1. Grey Zabel, OL, NDSU
2. Josh Conerly, OL, OR
3. Maxwell Hairston, CB, UK
4. Aireontae Ersery, OL, MIN
5. Will Johnson, CB, MICH
6. Jadhae Barron, DB, UT
7. Kenneth Grant, DT, MICH
8. Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, BC
9. Donovan Jackson, OL, OSU
10. Nic Scourton, DE, TAMU

I feel really strongly that the Packers will draft one of these guys.

This also makes sense of why other teams think GB would go OL.

 

[tynimiller]

Why would you eliminate WR as a possibility at 23?

GB has not drafted a WR since Javon Walker - it's just not something GB has valued in high regard over the years and is a typical thing done when attempting to narrow down the pool of players based on historical tendencies.

 

[Dantés]

Why would you eliminate WR as a possibility at 23?

Just playing the odds.

The Packers have gone 23 years without drafting a receiver in the first round.

What's more, they typically don't bring their 1st round target in for a top 30 visit, and all the top receivers visited minus Burden.

I love Egbuka and Golden and would be stoked for either to be Packers, but the odds say otherwise.

 

[Magooch]

Just playing the odds.

The Packers have gone 23 years without drafting a receiver in the first round.

What's more, they typically don't bring their 1st round target in for a top 30 visit, and all the top receivers visited minus Burden.

I love Egbuka and Golden and would be stoked for either to be Packers, but the odds say otherwise.

So maybe a dumb question where I'm just overlooking something or....you mentioned previously also how we rarely spend a first rd pick on a top 30 visit.
But a good portion of the guys we brought in this year are virtually 100% locks to get taken in the first round. Why bother bringing a first-round player in for one of your limited visits if you're almost certainly not going to spend your first-round pick on them? Just hoping for the off-chance that one falls out of the first round into a position where we can acquire them with one of our later picks (or move ourselves into a position to do so)?

Similarly we have discussed a bit how it seems like many of the most plugged-in and/or accurate draft predictors have us going either WR or CB in the first. If we are just going to have historical precedent outweigh everything else, who cares what the "plugged-in" guys are saying (if it doesn't line up with precedent)?

 

[Dantés]

So maybe a dumb question where I'm just overlooking something or....you mentioned previously also how we rarely spend a first rd pick on a top 30 visit.
But a good portion of the guys we brought in this year are virtually 100% locks to get taken in the first round. Why bother bringing a first-round player in for one of your limited visits if you're almost certainly not going to spend your first-round pick on them? Just hoping for the off-chance that one falls out of the first round into a position where we can acquire them with one of our later picks (or move ourselves into a position to do so)?

Similarly we have discussed a bit how it seems like many of the most plugged-in and/or accurate draft predictors have us going either WR or CB in the first. If we are just going to have historical precedent outweigh everything else, who cares what the "plugged-in" guys are saying (if it doesn't line up with precedent)?

1) To your first question, I can only speculate. I personally think they bring in a lot of 1st round prospects who they don't end up drafting to mislead other teams. If everyone knows exactly who you want in round 1, it's easy to know whether or not to jump you and take that player. However, these are just trends, not rules cut in stone. Gute could easily go off-trend and draft a receiver or a top 30 visit.

2) The Packers are one team that very rarely leaks intention through the media. So the plugged in guys are interesting, but rarely correct.

 

[Magooch]

I'm gonna be honest, at this point I've got a suspicion they let out some of these WR rumors just to troll fans
Even when it's the right call to not draft a WR, I think they might be having a bit of fun letting that leak out there just to revel in the chaos...


Anyways, a change of pace. He won't at all be a factor for us, but I'm curious about you guys' thoughts on Travis Hunter. I guess I can't get a good read on how highly he's regarded at each individual position, or if it is more about teams feeling like they are basically getting a decent two-for-one deal. Like, if Hunter were ONLY a CB or ONLY a WR, would he still go in the top-3 as he's projected? If he were only playing one of those positions, where do you think he'd get drafted? He's really an intriguing prospect but I can't help but wonder if teams aren't a bit enamored by the novelty of it. I dunno how realistic it is to have him seriously going both ways full time, so it makes me think that teams might be paying a huge premium for a guy who will predominantly be great (hopefully!) at one role and get some "bonus" reps in another - but not such an outsized impact that will be commensurate with the expenditure. Idk, just thinking out loud.

 

[Dantés]

I'm gonna be honest, at this point I've got a suspicion they let out some of these WR rumors just to troll fans
Even when it's the right call to not draft a WR, I think they might be having a bit of fun letting that leak out there just to revel in the chaos...


Anyways, a change of pace. He won't at all be a factor for us, but I'm curious about you guys' thoughts on Travis Hunter. I guess I can't get a good read on how highly he's regarded at each individual position, or if it is more about teams feeling like they are basically getting a decent two-for-one deal. Like, if Hunter were ONLY a CB or ONLY a WR, would he still go in the top-3 as he's projected? If he were only playing one of those positions, where do you think he'd get drafted? He's really an intriguing prospect but I can't help but wonder if teams aren't a bit enamored by the novelty of it. I dunno how realistic it is to have him seriously going both ways full time, so it makes me think that teams might be paying a huge premium for a guy who will predominantly be great (hopefully!) at one role and get some "bonus" reps in another - but not such an outsized impact that will be commensurate with the expenditure. Idk, just thinking out loud.

Ok think about this with me for a minute.

Let's hypothetically say that the Packers want OL or DL in round 1 (they may not) and do not want a WR (they may).

Well if you have all the top receivers in for visits, show a ton of interest in them, and attend their pro days, etc. you are signaling WR interest to the rest of the league. They've done this very successfully, many of the really plugged in guys are mocking receiver to GB.

Now think about what that does for you. Receiver teams picking ahead of you are less likely to trade behind you because they're worried you'll take their receiver. Receiver teams picking behind you are more likely to trade ahead of you for the same reason.

So you're encouraging more receivers to go top 22, which increases the odds that the OL or DL you want gets pushed down into your lap at #23.

And let's also say, hypothetically, you have your eye on some receivers on day 2. Well if lots of receivers go in picks 1-22, there are now fewer teams picking in front of you in rounds 2 and 3 with a pressing WR need.

So even if there's no genuine interest in receiver, there are good reasons to keep up appearances.

And of course, they could break tendency and just draft one.

 

[Magooch]

Yeah, I'm totally tracking with you. I just think that getting fans in a tizzy is a fringe benefit, too

 

[DoURant]

Of the 15 guys attending the Draft, 3 were Top 30 visits for the Packers.

Tetairoa McMillan, Matthew Golden, and Shemar Stewart... we are linked in quite a few Mock Drafts with 2 of these guys. Golden and Stewart. Not saying it's going to happen, but with the Draft in Green Bay, I'm sure the league would like to see our pick attending in person.

There would have been 5, but Mykel Williams and Josh Simmons backed out, after originally committing to attend.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Now think about what that does for you. Receiver teams picking ahead of you are less likely to trade behind you because they're worried you'll take their receiver. Receiver teams picking behind you are more likely to trade ahead of you for the same reason.

So you're encouraging more receivers to go top 22, which increases the odds that the OL or DL you want gets pushed down into your lap at #23.

And let's also say, hypothetically, you have your eye on some receivers on day 2. Well if lots of receivers go in picks 1-22, there are now fewer teams picking in front of you in rounds 2 and 3 with a pressing WR need.

Damn!

The Packers need to hire you as a draft consultant!