Fantasy Football Predictions/Thoughts

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

Hey guys, we're almost in July and it's time for some fantasy football talk to begin. I'm a writer for FantasyPros.com and a number of other sites including packtothefure.com and LastWordOnProFootball.com and I like to try and get the public opinion on certain players or topics when researching them. So feel free to drop in any thoughts or questions about all things fantasy and Packers and I'll make sure to check in and get back to you.

Attached below is a story I wrote for LastWordOnProFootball.com, it's a Travis Kelce fantasy preview that I think you'll really enjoy. Check it out!


P.S. If you're on Twitter come give me a follow @PTTF_Eli (I always follow back) for plenty of NFL and fantasy football news and analysis.



https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/06/28/travis-kelce-fantasy-football-preview/

 

[sschind]

What? No first round option? pfffftttt!!

Just kidding.

I said 2nd round but I don't need to target him at all, He's on my keeper team.

As you know it depends on who is still available, who you drafted in the first round and the number of teams in your league and where you are drafting but in a 10 or 12 team league I think he is worth a late 2nd rounder especially if you didn't draft a RB in the first round. If I did then I might grab a WR although having AJ as a RB2 (which is my situation) would not be all that bad.

There are some concerns about injuries but I think he is going to excel in this offense so I'm taking the risk.

 

[McKnowledge]

I see AJ33 as a trade target but not someone I would target for the higher rounds of my draft. Get a couple TEs (not much in quality) and better RBs (run heavy offense i.e. Barkley).

I don't think he will be prominently featured in this system right away.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

What? No first round option? pfffftttt!!

Just kidding.

I said 2nd round but I don't need to target him at all, He's on my keeper team.

As you know it depends on who is still available, who you drafted in the first round and the number of teams in your league and where you are drafting but in a 10 or 12 team league I think he is worth a late 2nd rounder especially if you didn't draft a RB in the first round. If I did then I might grab a WR although having AJ as a RB2 (which is my situation) would not be all that bad.

There are some concerns about injuries but I think he is going to excel in this offense so I'm taking the risk.

The injuries are definitely a little scary but when he's playing he unreal. Good enough that I think he's worth the risk. If I went WR in round 1 I'd definitely grab him in 2nd. If I took RB in round 1, the WR's would have to be pretty weak for me to double up on RB in the first 2 rounds.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

I see AJ33 as a trade target but not someone I would target for the higher rounds of my draft. Get a couple TEs (not much in quality) and better RBs (run heavy offense i.e. Barkley).

I don't think he will be prominently featured in this system right away.

I get that Tight End is a weak position but I definitely wouldn't target "a couple" Tight ends early in the draft. And of course getting someone Like Barkley would be amazing but unless you are picking 1 or 2 overall you aren't getting him so that doesn't really apply. Lafleur is gonna use a run-heavy offense and Jones may not get 90% of the carries but I'm confident he'll be the clear starter and if healthy will be terrific.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

Hey guys, great discussions on Aaron Jones. Thanks for the replies!

Today I want to focus on another Packers player who is in the midst of becoming one of the best in the game - Davante Adams. Last year, Adams was unstoppable and he still hasn't even reached his prime. I'm expecting big things from Adams in 2019. Check out my story on LastWordOnProFootball.com to see how just how much more he can go in the Packers new offensive system under new Head Coach Matt Lafleur.

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/05/29/davante-adams-fantasy-football-outlook/

Do you think Adams can finish as this years #1 fantasy wide receiver? (PPR)

Agree=Yes
Disagree=No

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Lafleur is gonna use a run-heavy offense and Jones may not get 90% of the carries but I'm confident he'll be the clear starter and if healthy will be terrific.

I fully expect the Packers to run the ball more often this season with LaFleur calling the plays but they won't feature a run-heavy offense.

 

[McKnowledge]

Hey guys, great discussions on Aaron Jones. Thanks for the replies!

Today I want to focus on another Packers player who is in the midst of becoming one of the best in the game - Davante Adams. Last year, Adams was unstoppable and he still hasn't even reached his prime. I'm expecting big things from Adams in 2019. Check out my story on LastWordOnProFootball.com to see how just how much more he can go in the Packers new offensive system under new Head Coach Matt Lafleur.

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/05/29/davante-adams-fantasy-football-outlook/

Do you think Adams can finish as this years #1 fantasy wide receiver? (PPR)

Agree=Yes
Disagree=No

Absolutely. I think they'll move Adams all over the field. He is a complete receiver. X,Y, or Z he's up for the challenge. He is guaranteed the targets, has a mind meld with Sir Rogers, and puts in the hard and dedication to maximize his talents. He's probably my #1 WR for fantasy this year and I'd expect huge numbers for the first half of the season until the weather turns and the run scheme is fully implemented. Adams is a a high-upside safe pick.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

Absolutely. I think they'll move Adams all over the field. He is a complete receiver. X,Y, or Z he's up for the challenge. He is guaranteed the targets, has a mind meld with Sir Rogers, and puts in the hard and dedication to maximize his talents. He's probably my #1 WR for fantasy this year and I'd expect huge numbers or the first half of the season until the weather turns and the run scheme is fully implemented. Adams is a a high-upside safe pick.

Definitely. I thin even once the weather turns he'll be fine. If they have any heavy snow games it could be an issue otherwise they have enough cold weather experience to be good all season.

 

[McKnowledge]

Definitely. I thin even once the weather turns he'll be fine. If they have any heavy snow games it could be an issue otherwise they have enough cold weather experience to be good all season.

He should be fine. Hopefully, the run game hits its stride as the weather turns. He'll get targets no matter what, I just want some more balance within the flow of the offense. He is proving to be a stud.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

He should be fine. Hopefully, the run game hits its stride as the weather turns. He'll get targets no matter what, I just want some more balance within the flow of the offense. He is proving to be a stud.

Ya, we can't throw as much as we did last year and expect to win in December in Lambeau. Gotta get Jones going early and hope he stays healthy.

 

[XPack]

3rd round at best. We are expecting his workload to increase, but not sure how much. Also not sure on his durability for a season long slog. I expect the load to be split between him and JW and that takes some off fantasy rankings.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

3rd round at best. We are expecting his workload to increase, but not sure how much. Also not sure on his durability for a season long slog. I expect the load to be split between him and JW and that takes some off fantasy rankings.

I definitely think that Jamaal Williams and Dexter Williams will get their touches but overall it will be Aaron Jones backfield. No running back gets all the carries and most aren't even close to that so I think Jones will have enough volume to be a top 12 RB.

I understand why you'd wait for the 3rd round, most would agree. The only way I'm taking Jones in round 2 is if I go Hopkins or Adams in round 1 and Jones is the last RB I'm comfortable with.

Guys going around Jones:
Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette. I'd rather gave Jones then all of them.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

3rd tops for AJ. I think his durability concerns are legit. I'd go for consistency/health with the top four picks if I can. I'd also be very concerned about how Dexter does in the preseason. If the kid looks legit in this offense he could get a considerable amount of snaps too.

 

[sschind]

Hey guys, great discussions on Aaron Jones. Thanks for the replies!

Today I want to focus on another Packers player who is in the midst of becoming one of the best in the game - Davante Adams. Last year, Adams was unstoppable and he still hasn't even reached his prime. I'm expecting big things from Adams in 2019. Check out my story on LastWordOnProFootball.com to see how just how much more he can go in the Packers new offensive system under new Head Coach Matt Lafleur.

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/05/29/davante-adams-fantasy-football-outlook/

Do you think Adams can finish as this years #1 fantasy wide receiver? (PPR)

Agree=Yes
Disagree=No

Do I think he CAN? Yes, but I don't think he will. I think AR will spread the ball around too much even though he made the 200 targets comments and the other options are unproven. I do think he will be in the top 5 overall. I probably wouldn't do it but I wouldn't laugh if someone made him the first WR off the board. With OBJ and Brown on new teams and the uncertainty that brings I'd not be afraid to take Adams #3 after Julio and Hopkins. I don't know if I would but I wouldn't be afraid to.

 

[sschind]

I definitely think that Jamaal Williams and Dexter Williams will get their touches but overall it will be Aaron Jones backfield. No running back gets all the carries and most aren't even close to that so I think Jones will have enough volume to be a top 12 RB.

I understand why you'd wait for the 3rd round, most would agree. The only way I'm taking Jones in round 2 is if I go Hopkins or Adams in round 1 and Jones is the last RB I'm comfortable with.

Guys going around Jones:
Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette. I'd rather gave Jones then all of them.

Over Mack and FOurnette for sure. Hot sure about Henry. I might be swayed by the late season burst but I do think it will carry through.

 

[XPack]

I definitely think that Jamaal Williams and Dexter Williams will get their touches but overall it will be Aaron Jones backfield. No running back gets all the carries and most aren't even close to that so I think Jones will have enough volume to be a top 12 RB.

I understand why you'd wait for the 3rd round, most would agree. The only way I'm taking Jones in round 2 is if I go Hopkins or Adams in round 1 and Jones is the last RB I'm comfortable with.

Guys going around Jones:
Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette. I'd rather gave Jones then all of them.

In 2018 JW had 522 snaps to AJs 376. If you expect a tilt to AJs favor this season, it'll still be a 50/50 or at best a 55/45. Though AJ maybe RB1 in paper and more explosive...JW is more durable and will earn his share easily.

Also there is expectation that the offence will be more pass oriented with TEs playing a far more important part than earlier season....and that'll est into both our RBs fantasy.

So yeah, unless you are a packer fan the best others will take AJ is at R3 or later.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

3rd tops for AJ. I think his durability concerns are legit. I'd go for consistency/health with the top four picks if I can. I'd also be very concerned about how Dexter does in the preseason. If the kid looks legit in this offense he could get a considerable amount of snaps too.

His injuries are definitely concerning but as an RB2 I'd be very happy with Jones. Williams could potentially breakout but then again, so can anyone. We'll have to see how he does in camp and Preseason.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

Do I think he CAN? Yes, but I don't think he will. I think AR will spread the ball around too much even though he made the 200 targets comments and the other options are unproven. I do think he will be in the top 5 overall. I probably wouldn't do it but I wouldn't laugh if someone made him the first WR off the board. With OBJ and Brown on new teams and the uncertainty that brings I'd not be afraid to take Adams #3 after Julio and Hopkins. I don't know if I would but I wouldn't be afraid to.

There wasn't a more consistent wide receiver in fantasy last year, he gets weekly end zone opportunities outside of his double-digit targets. I'm fine with Hopkins first but only him. I'm personally going Adams over any other WR.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

Over Mack and FOurnette for sure. Hot sure about Henry. I might be swayed by the late season burst but I do think it will carry through.

I don' think Henry all of a sudden became a tremendously better player out of nowhere for that 4-week stretch, he's gonna be the same guy he always was, touchdown dependent. With Dion Lewis there he'll have no passing game work either, so in PPR he gets a big downgrade. In standard scoring, he can be a decent option but still like Jones more.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

In 2018 JW had 522 snaps to AJs 376. If you expect a tilt to AJs favor this season, it'll still be a 50/50 or at best a 55/45. Though AJ maybe RB1 in paper and more explosive...JW is more durable and will earn his share easily.

Also there is expectation that the offence will be more pass oriented with TEs playing a far more important part than earlier season....and that'll est into both our RBs fantasy.

So yeah, unless you are a packer fan the best others will take AJ is at R3 or later.

I'm sorry but this is wrong for multiple reasons.

#1: Jwill is a fine change of pace back and he will definitely see the field but everyone knows Jones is way too good to keep off the field for 45% of the snaps. If he's 100%, he's going to be getting most the work as he should, he's a game changer that doesn't come around every day.

#2: I read Packers news all day every day and I have not seen one word about the offense being "more pass-oriented". Everything out Green Bay has been the exact opposite. Lafleur has made it clear he wants to build a strong run game and they will lean mostly on Jones for that.

Go listen to Matthew Berry or Michael Fabiano or Adam Aizer (and more experts) rave about Jones. It won't just be Packers fans targeting Jones early this year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I definitely think that Jamaal Williams and Dexter Williams will get their touches but overall it will be Aaron Jones backfield. No running back gets all the carries and most aren't even close to that so I think Jones will have enough volume to be a top 12 RB.

Jones has definitely performed at a very high level when getting the ball but you have to consider that he has only received a total of 214 rushing attempts in two seasons.

Also there is expectation that the offence will be more pass oriented with TEs playing a far more important part than earlier season....and that'll est into both our RBs fantasy.

The Packers threw the ball on 67.5% of the offensive plays last season, the highest number of any NFL team since 2013. It's realistic to expect that number to decrease with LaFleur calling the plays.

 

[Bob Vance Refrigeration]

Jones has definitely performed at a very high level when getting the ball but you have to consider that he has only received a total of 214 rushing attempts in two seasons.



The Packers threw the ball on 67.5% of the offensive plays last season, the highest number of any NFL team since 2013. It's realistic to expect that number to decrease with LaFleur calling the plays.

Exactly what I'm saying. They will definitely be passing less because last year they passed at a ridiculous rate. Even if it was still McCarthy they'd probably run less because 67.5% is a crazy number but with Lafleur, that number will go even lower. He wants to establish a strong run game early on.

 

[sschind]

His injuries are definitely concerning but as an RB2 I'd be very happy with Jones. Williams could potentially breakout but then again, so can anyone. We'll have to see how he does in camp and Preseason.

If Jones is you #1 you may be in for some rough patches from your RBs but you could do much worse for a #2 back and many will.

There wasn't a more consistent wide receiver in fantasy last year, he gets weekly end zone opportunities outside of his double-digit targets. I'm fine with Hopkins first but only him. I'm personally going Adams over any other WR.

I am hoping that the Packers WR situation is such that we don't have to rely on Adams as much and that's why I think there may be better options. As I said I wouldn't laugh at anyone taking him first though.

I don' think Henry all of a sudden became a tremendously better player out of nowhere for that 4-week stretch, he's gonna be the same guy he always was, touchdown dependent. With Dion Lewis there he'll have no passing game work either, so in PPR he gets a big downgrade. In standard scoring, he can be a decent option but still like Jones more.

I don't think he got better either I just think there will be a carryover especially in the beginning of the year. Like I said, its a maybe. I'm not saying I like Henry better just that its closer than with the other two you mentioned. I'd be fine with taking Jones over any of them but if I were looking at a RB in that spot and Jones was taken the pick before me I would be fine with Henry. If Jones were there, as a Packer fan, I'd probably go with Jones.

In 2018 JW had 522 snaps to AJs 376. If you expect a tilt to AJs favor this season, it'll still be a 50/50 or at best a 55/45. Though AJ maybe RB1 in paper and more explosive...JW is more durable and will earn his share easily.

Also there is expectation that the offence will be more pass oriented with TEs playing a far more important part than earlier season....and that'll eat into both our RBs fantasy.

So yeah, unless you are a packer fan the best others will take AJ is at R3 or later.

Williams also had a 16 /12 advantage in games played. Their average snaps per game were pretty close but I think Jones' heath was a big factor in that. If he is healthy I think he will be the clear #1 RB with at least 60% if not more of the snaps. I don't expect them to become more pass oriented (at least I hope not as they already threw the ball more than just about every team last year if I am not mistaken) and I expect the RBs to become more involved in the passing game as well. It all depends on if you deem AJ a legitimate #2 RB.

There are SO MANY factors that go into deciding when a player should be drafted that it is really difficult to say but in some situations I can certainly see where Aaron Jones would be worth a late 2nd round pick.

 

[sschind]

Exactly what I'm saying. They will definitely be passing less because last year they passed at a ridiculous rate. Even if it was still McCarthy they'd probably run less because 67.5% is a crazy number but with Lafleur, that number will go even lower. He wants to establish a strong run game early on.

Passing less and hopefully getting the RBs more involved in the passing game both bode well for any Packers RB fantasy numbers.

Jones has definitely performed at a very high level when getting the ball but you have to consider that he has only received a total of 214 rushing attempts in two seasons.

The Packers threw the ball on 67.5% of the offensive plays last season, the highest number of any NFL team since 2013. It's realistic to expect that number to decrease with LaFleur calling the plays.

So he isn't wore out yet, heck he's barely broke in Although some will contend he is broke down He only played in 12 games in each or those 2 seasons. The first one he was a rookie and he got hurt, the second he also got hurt. Because of that I know some people are already marking him down for getting hurt this year as well but its not the given some people expecting.

I don't know if AJ is a 20-25 touch a game guy or not but I don't know that he isn't. Note I said touches not carries as I don't really care how they get the ball into his hands. I certainly hope he is because the Packers are a better team with him in the backfield and I hope he gets the chance to prove it and not have his touches artificially limited simply because he MIGHT turn into a pumpkin if he goes past midnight.