Dolphins for Thanksgiving after dinner snack pregame thread

milani

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Interesting, this entire time I had it in my head that the Pack had to go to FL for this one. That changes my perspective a bit. Miami has been playing much better with Tua back. It's really hard to break down the numbers for as bad as they were when he was out. I feel like the Pack should win this one, but it is merely on a hunch. Pack 24-20 in nailbiter.
The Fins do not run the ball that much unless Tua takes off. They love the short pass and run after the catch. If we had Jaire for press man to man we could stop it. But he is out. 2 years ago we picked Tua 3 times. He is much improved. I do not buy the cold weather affecting the Fins. It DID bother the 9ers, however. What will have the most impact will be our crowd and our defense.
 
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The Dolphins have played similar to us on Offense lately. That said Tua played Defenses ranked in
scoring D
19th, 26th, 29th
Passing D
14th, 19th, 26th
Run D
14th, 18th, 28th

Packers Defense is ranked
Scoring
10th
Passing
11th
Run D
12th

Also both Tua higher points games (34,34) were both in the comfort of Miami. They scored (23) at LA Rams.
 
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I think this will be moderate scoring is my guess. We can discount weather but it’s easier to play at home and not have to travel. They have to travel 1,600 miles and deal with crowd disadvantage, moderate 11 mile wind and 25 degrees and against a DC who’s been calling relatively good games.
Im not suggesting Dolphins score 10, but it wouldn’t shock me to see them in that 18-26 point area to finish.

On our O side, we’re playing a Miami D that’s kinda similar to GB’s Defense, strength wise. They are good, but not dominant either. Several categories they are slightly ahead, some slightly behind. Similar strength D. I really like our Running game. If we can bully SF49ers? We can definitely bully these guys.


Miami is better than their record shows, but they aren’t Detroit here either.
Packers 26
Dolphins 23
 
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Pkrjones

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Tua primarily throws short, quickly released passes. Rather than Hafley rushing 4 or 5 in "obvious" pass situations why not rush 2 or 3 and consistently drop DL's or OLB's into short zones to clog Tua's pass lanes? Leaves GB potentially open to longer runs but would certainly reduce the short pass & YAC opportunities for Miami.
 
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Tua primarily throws short, quickly released passes. Rather than Hafley rushing 4 or 5 in "obvious" pass situations why not rush 2 or 3 and consistently drop DL's or OLB's into short zones to clog Tua's pass lanes? Leaves GB potentially open to longer runs but would certainly reduce the short pass & YAC opportunities for Miami.
Yes. The other aspect that might be advantageous is to Run at them. The last 3 teams Miami played averaged just 19 Rushes per game but a hair under 4.0 per carry. I think GB can run for 4.5-5.0 per carry on 30-40 Rushes and wear them down some later in the game. The Miami D needs to tested more in the Run game and left out there on the field more. Due to Miami defending less than <20 runs per game since Week 10, Miami controlled the clock against the Raiders (33min) and Patriots (32min). While Time of possession it is not the “end all” for winning, its obvious that the less your opponent Offense sees the ball, the better (unless it’s Jake Cutler)

In week 10 the Rams split TOP 30/30min. The Rams out played Miami in just about every category,
Rams won in
Plays 68-53
Yards 327-238
1st Down 20-15

except LA couldn’t finish
0-3 in the Redzone. Sound familiar?
 
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Heyjoe4

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Yeah, he said " Bring it on" ... so ON it shall be. With a little wind too. Thing is, our guys won't be used to it neither. I know I'm not.
Yeah I don't believe weather plays much of a part in determining which team will do better. If the temp is around the forecast, 20 degrees, everyone is gonna feel the effects. I know the QBs have hand warmers with them, not so sure about the WRs but don't think so.

Sounds simple but the team that runs the ball best wins. I like the Packers, 24-20.
 

PackerDNA

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Interesting comments about Thanksgiving games the other day by Rex Ryan. He thinks with family and all it's a big distraction for home teams. Also pointed out that in the last 5 years home teams are 3 - 11 on Thanksgiving.
 

Pkrjones

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Interesting comments about Thanksgiving games the other day by Rex Ryan. He thinks with family and all it's a big distraction for home teams. Also pointed out that in the last 5 years home teams are 3 - 11 on Thanksgiving.
I think that today all 3 home teams win & upset that trend. Detroit, Dallas, & GB go home winners, tonight.
 

gopkrs

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Tua primarily throws short, quickly released passes. Rather than Hafley rushing 4 or 5 in "obvious" pass situations why not rush 2 or 3 and consistently drop DL's or OLB's into short zones to clog Tua's pass lanes? Leaves GB potentially open to longer runs but would certainly reduce the short pass & YAC opportunities for Miami.
Hate that idea. Tua would have all day back there. Absolutely hate 3 man rushes. 2 man??? Worse
 

Pkrjones

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Hate that idea. Tua would have all day back there. Absolutely hate 3 man rushes. 2 man??? Worse
Tua gets rid of the ball, fast, to avoid getting hit/sacked. I don't think he'll suddenly start keeping hold of it for 4 or 5 seconds tonight. My main goal was to put more bodies in his preferred target zone which is short middle of the field & let them get YAC. Rushing 4 or 5 is a waste if they don't pressure him within 2 seconds.
 

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Tua primarily throws short, quickly released passes. Rather than Hafley rushing 4 or 5 in "obvious" pass situations why not rush 2 or 3 and consistently drop DL's or OLB's into short zones to clog Tua's pass lanes? Leaves GB potentially open to longer runs but would certainly reduce the short pass & YAC opportunities for Miami.
We're going to see less pass rush for sure. Especially when we only have 3 linebackers who will be playing. I suspect they'll end up using a nickel defense all the time, and some dime to boot, on passing downs.
 
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Yeah I don't believe weather plays much of a part in determining which team will do better. If the temp is around the forecast, 20 degrees, everyone is gonna feel the effects. I know the QBs have hand warmers with them, not so sure about the WRs but don't think so.

Sounds simple but the team that runs the ball best wins. I like the Packers, 24-20.
I also don’t like to forecast a team doing better or worse due to weather. I think that thinking is dangerous to us letting our guard down. Totally different concept than game planning for the weather. A good military always accounts for weather, lighting, time of day, elevation… the whole 9 yards (pun intended).
I also agree that we should be pressing the Running game similar to last week. Keep Tua on the bench and moving the chains and remain patient with 4-5 yard carries. Keep their D out there.
 
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It’s very possible Miami hits their first Roadblock. Tua is already verbalizing how he’s going to shatter the concept of not being able to play at a high level in Colder weather.

One big advantage is we do not play a QB who is expected to Run the ball. I highly suspect he will be instructed not to run unless it’s critical and even then to play it safe by sliding or using the sideline as protection.

The think we see a medium to heavy dose of Quick throws to available Receiving weapons in the flat with pulling blockers. That would achieve protecting Tua and getting his faster athletes the ball in space. Our DB’s and LB’s need to be ready for the ball to come out quick and to cover them up with good tackling BEFORE they get momentum. Give them 1-3 yards underneath but end it there and expect to cover them with gang tackles. The DE’s need to be prepared to assist in the flat from an underneath angle
 
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Tua gets rid of the ball, fast, to avoid getting hit/sacked. I don't think he'll suddenly start keeping hold of it for 4 or 5 seconds tonight. My main goal was to put more bodies in his preferred target zone which is short middle of the field & let them get YAC. Rushing 4 or 5 is a waste if they don't pressure him within 2 seconds.
Yes.
I’d use more of Evan Williams by moving him up closer to LOS. Hopper is a very good “downhill” Run Defender. Tyron is good at diagnosing where the football is and good at shedding blocks and playing downhill. I don’t really want him out covering receivers in this one. I’d keep him at home. Eric Wilson is pretty good in short coverage he’s like a larger SS

Also this would be a game to use more bump coverage to disrupt timing off the LOS. That also makes it harder by clogging the screen game in the flat. They should just take the screen away earlier and clumping up both flats. Make them earn it by throwing 30+ to Xavier. Keep 8 in the box (or condense the field some) to attain more of a gang tackling feel underneath.
The ball grip may be less than ideal. We will often know after Qtr1 by watching. Good time to punch at it on gang tackles. Likely get a fumble
 
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smacker

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Yeah, he said " Bring it on" ... so ON it shall be. With a little wind too. Thing is, our guys won't be used to it neither. I know I'm not.

It's not about the temp, but your attitude about the temp. if you think the cold sucks and let it bother you, it will.
 
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It's not about the temp, but your attitude about the temp. if you think the cold sucks and let it bother you, it will.
Amen. It affects both sides relatively equally.
I like our chances. We have the ability to prepare in similar conditions. I think 90 degrees would be advantageous to Miami just the same. Us saying we wont be affected by 92 degrees with 93% humidity doesn’t change anything.
Tua should’ve kept his mouth closed and proved it on the field. All that pregame lip is going to do is make me want to smash him to the cold ground and punch the ball out that much more! :ninja:

I really hope McKinney gets an INT on Tua tonight. I nice wobbly pass that sails a little in the Wind or higher pass tipped into the waiting arms. OR
a Strip sack Fumble and scoop with a 25+ rumble toward their Paint

Xavier INT returns so far are 17,18,28,48. Tonight it’s 58 and a Pick 6
 
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