Divisional Round: Rams at Packers on the frozen tundra (Sat, 1/16 @4:35pm)

[Pokerbrat2000]

Mid-30s at kickoff. So it won’t be that cold.

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[gbgary]

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wind would be a bad thing. hope it's as still as Lambeau Field itself.

 

[Mondio]

I just glanced a the forecast, I thought it was supposed to be like a high of 20 on Saturday from what they said earlier in the week. Now I see it is Mid 30's. Weather is not going to be a factor. Even for and LA team. Heaters and clothes will keep them feeling nice and toasty.

anybody thinking their injuries or our weather was going to give us any sort of advantage is going to be disappointed it looks like.

 

[PackAttack12]

wind would be a bad thing. hope it's as still as Lambeau Field itself.

I'm fine with some wind. I trust Rodgers to throw in wind that he's thrown in for his entire career over Jared frickin Goff with a bum thumb.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Speaking of, does anyone know when they publicly release COVID results each day?

I don't think officially announce the results of COVID testing. If a player tests positive they need to put him on the COVID list though.

 

[Favre4Life]

GB 23
LAR 10

They will do little to nothing offensively. Their elite defense will force a turnover (more than likely a fumble of sorts) or make a special teams play or something that sets them up in our territory which leads to a TD. This will be a relatively easy win in a low scoring game.

 

[Dantés]

Packers' O versus Rams' D is such a fascinating matchup.

1) The Rams play a ton of match coverage. The most common way to defeat match coverage is to confuse it with late motion. The Packers do this more than just about anyone. But the Rams are better than anyone at communicating and adapting to motion and maintaining the integrity of their assignments.

2) The most similar DC to Staley in terms of design is Fangio. Fangio was the DC in Chicago from 2015 to 2018. Over that time span, the Packers scored (from earliest to most recent): 31, 13, 26, 30, 35, 23, 24, 17.

3) Staley's defense is extremely familiar with the offensive system from which LaFleur branches (McVay is from the same tree). But there's a huge difference in that the Packers use RPO's more than anyone in the league, and the Rams almost never use them. Using RPO in the short passing game could be a key to success against the Rams, but they have to be careful not to have their mail read as in the Panthers game.

4) Ramsey is the best man cover corner playing right now, and he specializes in taking away opposing #1 wide receivers. The Packers' passing game runs through their #1 wide receiver more than almost anyone. The guys that Ramsey has shut down or severely limited this year include Devante Parker, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, and D.K. Metcalf. However, Adams is playing at a higher level than any of those guys this year, and he is a different type receiver from all of them. Adams' release and route running is on a way higher level than those others. Ramsey seems to specialize in defeating traditional X receivers. Adams is not that.

5) Staley seems to be about as good as anyone at coaching his defense to know what to expect. For any defense (2 Man, Cover 2, Cover 3, Match, etc) there are common "beaters" for attacking those coverages. I think it's going to be critical for LaFleur and Hackett to build unexpected wrinkles off of plays that appear to be typical. If they use the same stuff that any other team would try, the Rams will doubtlessly be ready.

6) The Rams are almost certainly going to stay in 2 high looks most of the day, which is going to mean the box count will call for lots of running out of the Packers. If they can't get any success on the ground against light boxes, it could be a long day.

The biggest key, in my opinion, will be patience. The way to beat the Rams defense is to nibble at them-- long drives, lots of conversions. You aren't going to defeat them with big plays. Rodgers is going to have to trust the design, be methodical, and take what's there, 4-7 yards at a time.

What a matchup!

Hopefully Pettine's defense just has a day, and we don't have to rely on beating the league's most formidable defense.

 

[XPack]

Jaire is a better CB this season than Ramsey.

The difference maker between both D's is Aaron Donald and if he's not fully fit, we should be as good as them....with a much better O.

 

[Dantés]

Jaire is a better CB this season than Ramsey.

The difference maker between both D's is Aaron Donald and if he's not fully fit, we should be as good as them....with a much better O.

Statistically, Jaire may be better than Ramsey, but given what Ramsey is asked to do, I would say he's the best going right now.

 

[XPack]

but given what Ramsey is asked to do

Curious. Elaborate a bit?

I think they've both faced top WRs and Jaire is statistically better.

 

[tynimiller]

It takes zero away from Jaire, but Ramsey is undoubtedly the better guy this year.

 

[Dantés]

Curious. Elaborate a bit?

I think they've both faced top WRs and Jaire is statistically better.

There are a handful of corners in the league who will shadow opposing WR's, but they don't all do it to the same extent. Ramsey follows top receivers more than anyone else, is my understanding.

 

[Pugger]

I take it no news on additional positive tests of COVID at 1265 is good news?

 

[tynimiller]

Few predictions: I see minimum 3 of these 5 happening but genuinely think all 5 are coming.

MVS is targeted twice over 40 yards and hauls in both for the rare big plays against this Rams' defense.

Lazard eats up a ton of short to medium targets - converts 2 clutch first downs.

TE group has 75 yards and a red zone TD

RB group drives the day as a whole with over 200 all purpose yards (Williams/Jones/Dillon)

Ramsey limits Adams yards to under 70 but he still hauls in 7 passes.

Tight start before we slowly control second half as Goff cannot compete when forced to be their way back into the game.

Packers 38 Rams 20

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

GB 23
LAR 10

They will do little to nothing offensively. Their elite defense will force a turnover (more than likely a fumble of sorts) or make a special teams play or something that sets them up in our territory which leads to a TD. This will be a relatively easy win in a low scoring game.

I hope I am wrong, but I think people are totally underestimating what the Rams Offense can do and maybe in the process what the Packers defense is capable of doing.

While I don't think the Rams offense is a juggernaut, it has and can put up yards and points. Goff's injury might reduce that a bit, but this is the same team that just hung 30 on Seattle last week. LAR were 11th in total offensive yards for 2020 and put up an average of 23.3 ppg. Obviously, not turning the ball over could help reduce the Rams ability to score.

It may be difficult against the Ram defense, but I think the Packers may need to put up 30+ points to win this game.

 

[tynimiller]

Honestly, if GB keeps Akers in check, the route to win is quite easy in my opinion. If Akers has a day, the Rams can keep it within striking distance much like the Bears seem to always do.

 

[gbgary]

I'm fine with some wind. I trust Rodgers to throw in wind that he's thrown in for his entire career over Jared frickin Goff with a bum thumb.

i'm thinking about chill factor only.

 

[El Guapo]

Interesting note.

Just noticed, the Packers got smart and put both a P and a K on the Practice squad. I never understood why they didn't do this from day #1 this season. Had either Crosby or Scott tested positive for COVID right after the window that they could still add a new player for the game day roster, they wouldn't have had a P or a K for that next game.

JJ Molson: K (signed Dec. 22, 2020)

Ryan Winslow: P (signed Dec. 26, 2020)

What I heard through the season was that the Packers and most teams continually brought in punters and kickers each week. That way they were in the Covid protocol and could be called up in an emergency. It was kind of like musical chairs for specialists. For the playoffs, it makes sense to put them on the PS.

 

[Favre4Life]

I hope I am wrong, but I think people are totally underestimating what the Rams Offense can do and maybe in the process what the Packers defense is capable of doing.

While I don't think the Rams offense is a juggernaut, it has and can put up yards and points. Goff's injury might reduce that a bit, but this is the same team that just hung 30 on Seattle last week. LAR were 11th in total offensive yards for 2020 and put up an average of 23.3 ppg. Obviously, not turning the ball over could help reduce the Rams ability to score.

It may be difficult against the Ram defense, but I think the Packers may need to put up 30+ points to win this game.

I mean they got that 30 with a pick 6 and another forced turnover. They only totaled 333 total yards and 16 first downs against a not so great Seattle defense. A little context matters. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, but I don't see the Rams doing much of anything offensively tomorrow.

 

[El Guapo]

I too believe that the Packers will win relatively easily. There will be a point, probably in the third quarter as usual, where the Rams defense slows us down but we just have too many weapons for them to stop.

 

[Royal Pain]

I just glanced a the forecast, I thought it was supposed to be like a high of 20 on Saturday from what they said earlier in the week. Now I see it is Mid 30's. Weather is not going to be a factor. Even for and LA team. Heaters and clothes will keep them feeling nice and toasty.

anybody thinking their injuries or our weather was going to give us any sort of advantage is going to be disappointed it looks like.

Donald’s ribs will be a target every chance the Packers get. Even though we’re looking at relatively mild temperatures in GB, he’s going to feel it more than if the temperature were much warmer.

 

[gatorpack]

The rams got lucky with one of the warmer days. Looks like brees will have to deal with low 20s - mid teens per the extended forecast.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Staley's defense is extremely familiar with the offensive system from which LaFleur branches (McVay is from the same tree). But there's a huge difference in that the Packers use RPO's more than anyone in the league, and the Rams almost never use them.

Just for the record, the Packers ranked tied for 16th in the league in most RPO plays executed this season.

 

[PackerDNA]

-don't let their past rush kill us
-mix things up and especially run the ball well.
-don't let Akers kill us.
-defense needs to step up and force Goff into some mistakes.
-don't let our special teams kill us.
as I've said before I don't like to match up and I can see us losing this game. but I think the boys will be ready.
Packers 27-17

 

[Dantés]

Just for the record, the Packers ranked tied for 16th in the league in most RPO plays executed this season.

That ranking is going to fluctuate depending on the source based on a couple factors-- what the viewer recognizes as an RPO, and whether they're ranking total number of plays, or percentage of total plays run. Ben Fennell had mentioned that by his count, the Packers were 2nd in the league.

Regardless, the point is that the Packers use RPO a lot more than the Rams.