Cut/Trade Candidates

[Heyjoe4]

Again you are calling the Dolphins and discussing Holland given their cap situation and a lot of future contracts they’re gonna have to start doing and others extending or cutting.

If they don’t think Holland is gonna be in long term, you can get them way more than they’d get in compensatory and get it to them now rather than two drafts away.

I think one thing Gute has proven is he will do things necessary to make team better…in past that was big spending on Turner, Amos and the Smiths…then was financing the future to keep guys Rodgers wanted here…he will follow his draft board for the future even if not the best for the now.

Swinging big on a trade like Holland would be just another example of this in a way he hasn’t really. There isn’t a safety in this draft (even a DeJean to safety) that is what Holland is.

I get your point. Certainly when Gluten drafted Love, Gary, and hopefully LVN - he was swinging for tomorrow's fences. Love and Gary are paying dividends, and that took time and patience. I hope LVN follows that path.

The other issue is - what do you offer in a trade to get a player you need with one year left on his contract? Especially in this case, the Dolphins are motivated to move Holland because of their ugly cap situation. Just my opinion, but one second round pick is fair value in an exchange like this. Ideally, Miami gets an impact player on a rookie contract in the second round, and the Packers get a known impact player now. And in this case, drafting for tomorrow doesn't work because the need is great and urgent.

I just wouldn't offer more than one second round pick, or whatever the equivalent would be in draft capital.

 

[Half Empty]

Especially in this case, the Dolphins are motivated to move Holland because of their ugly cap situation.

I know 'every little bit helps' but with the Fins being over 50 mil in the hole, does the $1.8 they'd save by trading him make much difference?

 

[Thirteen Below]

I'm concerned about Walker's presence as well. He's not a dirty player by any means, but he seems a bit confused at times and has made head-scratching decisions.

That's the way I see him, too. He's not a bad guy, just does things sometimes that make me wonder what in the world he was thinking. I know Lafleur thinks very highly of him and believes in him, and has been working quite patiently for 2 years now to develop some maturity andbetter judgment. I think it's paying off, but every now then "Bad Quay" jumps out from behind the couch, and there we go again.

But in the end, there's probably a practical limit to how far you're going to get with someone whose Wonderlic score is 9 - less than half that of the average NFL linebacker. If you look at Quay's issues through that lens, it becomes a little easier to see where the root of the problem probably lies.

One thing I keep going back to is that 4th and 1 QB sneak by Bryce Young in Carolina. Rmember the one where the entire defense left the A gap wide open, and Young had enough space to drive a golf cart through it? And we were all staring open-mouthed at our tv sets wondering what the hell was going on? Unless for some reason that was an intentional formation by Barry (which I suppose is possible, but I can't imagine a reason even Barry would do that), that was entirely on Quay.

Walker was wearing the green dot and calling the defense, 4 yards off the ball, setting the alignments. Nixon is about 3 yards off that A gap, and as the linemen are settling in, Nixon points to the gap, turns to Quay, and asks if he should be closer to the line. Instead, Walker shakes hus head and waves him even farther off the gap, about another yard or two. It's pretty clear from Nixon's body language he's not comfortable with it, but he goes where he's told to go, and leans in as hard as he can toward that gap - because (like every single other person watching the game who wasn't named Walker) he knows damned well that's where the ball is coming.

And sure enough, the instant the ball is snapped, Young heads straight through that gap. The split-second Young moves, Nixon makes an incredible play and just explodes directly at the hole, hurling his body headfirst in front of Young, and he covers that 4 or 5 yards just a tenth of a second after Young gets through. His instinct, his reaction time, his speed, and the aggressiveness with which he made that play were amazing. I don't know many players who could have done that, and I've liked Nixon a lot more ever since.

But why Walker would have waved Nixon so far out of that enormous gap in a clear quarterback sneak situation is an absolute mystery. It was like he was the only human being in the entire stadium who didn't seem to realize what was obviously about to happen.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Again you are calling the Dolphins and discussing Holland given their cap situation and a lot of future contracts they’re gonna have to start doing and others extending or cutting.

If they don’t think Holland is gonna be in long term, you can get them way more than they’d get in compensatory and get it to them now rather than two drafts away.

You're winning me over. I've read up on him a bit, and he's very highly regarded among the Miami fanbase. Wouldn't mind getitng him into a Packer jersey, though.

I think this season (and especially trhis pre-season) is a little early, but it won't be long before we're going to have some top-notch passcatchers to dangle as trade bait for filling gaps like this. No way we're going to be able to pay them all, and moving 1 or 2 them in Year 2 or 3 for a prime player is better than getting a 3rd or 4th Round comp pick 2 years down the road - especially if we're able to draft and develop another good receiver or two in the meantime.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's the way I see him, too. He's not a bad guy, just does things sometimes that make me wonder what in the world he was thinking. I know Lafleur thinks very highly of him and believes in him, and has been working quite patiently for 2 years now to develop some maturity andbetter judgment. I think it's paying off, but every now then "Bad Quay" jumps out from behind the couch, and there we go again.

But in the end, there's probably a practical limit to how far you're going to get with someone whose Wonderlic score is 9 - less than half that of the average NFL linebacker. If you look at Quay's issues through that lens, it becomes a little easier to see where the root of the problem probably lies.

One thing I keep going back to is that 4th and 1 QB sneak by Bryce Young in Carolina. Rmember the one where the entire defense left the A gap wide open, and Young had enough space to drive a golf cart through it? And we were all staring open-mouthed at our tv sets wondering what the hell was going on? Unless for some reason that was an intentional formation by Barry (which I suppose is possible, but I can't imagine a reason even Barry would do that), that was entirely on Quay.

Walker was wearing the green dot and calling the defense, 4 yards off the ball, setting the alignments. Nixon is about 3 yards off that A gap, and as the linemen are settling in, Nixon points to the gap, turns to Quay, and asks if he should be closer to the line. Instead, Walker shakes hus head and waves him even farther off the gap, about another yard or two. It's pretty clear from Nixon's body language he's not comfortable with it, but he goes where he's told to go, and leans in as hard as he can toward that gap - because (like every single other person watching the game who wasn't named Walker) he knows damned well that's where the ball is coming.

And sure enough, the instant the ball is snapped, Young heads straight through that gap. The split-second Young moves, Nixon makes an incredible play and just explodes directly at the hole, hurling his body headfirst in front of Young, and he covers that 4 or 5 yards just a tenth of a second after Young gets through. His instinct, his reaction time, his speed, and the aggressiveness with which he made that play were amazing. I don't know many players who could have done that, and I've liked Nixon a lot more ever since.

But why Walker would have waved Nixon so far out of that enormous gap in a clear quarterback sneak situation is an absolute mystery. It was like he was the only human being in the entire stadium who didn't seem to realize what was obviously about to happen.

His Wonderlic was 9? I mean I don't expect these guys to be Einsteins but damn.... And yeah that play you mentioned is the perfect example of how he just misses things. And the guy wearing the green dot on D has to spot those. I just remembered how easy it was for Young to get the first down.

Maybe a new DC, a new attitude, and an appreciation for truly developing talent will help. The game looks pretty simple from my angle, but it's actually become very complex with a lot of motion, stunting, and both the QB and the play caller on D have to see these things.

Walker is still a keeper for his athleticism and his motor. Would be nice if the new DC can get more out of him than Barry. I don't think Barry was very good at evaluating and using the talent he had, one reason he's gone.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I know 'every little bit helps' but with the Fins being over 50 mil in the hole, does the $1.8 they'd save by trading him make much difference?

Good point. Didn't know it was that small. Thanks!

 

[Thirteen Below]

Good point. Didn't know it was that small. Thanks!

Of course, he'll want a lot more after the season's over, at which point they need to decide between a much larger cap hit or a 3rd round comp pick. If they're looking more than one year down the road on their cap, it's possible they may want to move him when he's at maximum value. Dodn't seem very likely, though.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Of course, he'll want a lot more after the season's over, at which point they need to decide between a much larger cap hit or a 3rd round comp pick. If they're looking more than one year down the road on their cap, it's possible they may want to move him when he's at maximum value. Dodn't seem very likely, though.

Thanks. If they don't plan on keeping him, or know they won't pay him, might as well move him now for a better pick. I don't know the player that well so maybe it would take both second round picks to get him. I just don't think anyone is worth that much draft capital.

 

[tynimiller]

So of course nothing is concrete, but I have now a couple good sources saying Dillon is (and his camp) proposing quite the GB friendly deal to stay in GB. What exactly is that is anyone's best guess but likely if someone is wording things that way you gotta think the first number in the per year column starts with a 2.

Everyone knows I don't desire 2024 to be a year where we have Dillon be the guy in when Jones is out, I believe we need another explosive outside tackle type runner that Jones is BUT I would embrace a world where Dillon really was the compliment style running back in the room and more a RB2b alongside a RB2a.

If Dillon is willing to come back for like three years...say $7.5M total with only $4M guaranteed...that could be structured even in a way where after two seasons he is nearly a pristine savings should he just degrade more OR like a $3.5M hit if stays and really only hits our cap for $2M or so 2024 and 2025.

That is something I think you would have to consider AND go get a true explosive RB2 in this draft that doesn't have to hit the ground running as the clear and away RB2. Not too mention as I've said work Dillon out some as that HBack role at times Deguara did.

 

[Heyjoe4]

So of course nothing is concrete, but I have now a couple good sources saying Dillon is (and his camp) proposing quite the GB friendly deal to stay in GB. What exactly is that is anyone's best guess but likely if someone is wording things that way you gotta think the first number in the per year column starts with a 2.

Everyone knows I don't desire 2024 to be a year where we have Dillon be the guy in when Jones is out, I believe we need another explosive outside tackle type runner that Jones is BUT I would embrace a world where Dillon really was the compliment style running back in the room and more a RB2b alongside a RB2a.

If Dillon is willing to come back for like three years...say $7.5M total with only $4M guaranteed...that could be structured even in a way where after two seasons he is nearly a pristine savings should he just degrade more OR like a $3.5M hit if stays and really only hits our cap for $2M or so 2024 and 2025.

That is something I think you would have to consider AND go get a true explosive RB2 in this draft that doesn't have to hit the ground running as the clear and away RB2. Not too mention as I've said work Dillon out some as that HBack role at times Deguara did.

Agreed. If Dillon will agree to a 3 year deal at $7.5 mil, that would be a fair deal. He's established in GB so why go through the headache of FA only to land in another city for not much more money? Everyone wins.

As for a RB2, the draft is probably the best route, esp with 5 picks in the first three rounds. There are some interesting FAs out there as well, but I'd rather spend FA money on a solid S. Otherwise S becomes the #1 need and a first round draft pick, meaning development and patience. The S group is a mess and needs immediate help. Grab a S in FA and complement in the draft.

Nice to have some flexibility for a change. And I'm assuming Bakh and Campbell are not coming back when I talk about FA.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I think it'd be great to have him here for 3 more years at $2.5 per. Solid deal, and I still want a Day 2 RB tp spell Jones and be ready to step in for him when needed. I keep hearing people talking about how promising Wilson looks, but in the few times I've seen him, I have yet to see anything the least bit special. He's not very fast, doesn't seem very elusive, can't find a hole, and has a pretty poor RAS (6.8 something, I believe). You'd like a feature back to show some more basic athleticism, IMO.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Thanks. If they don't plan on keeping him, or know they won't pay him, might as well move him now for a better pick. I don't know the player that well so maybe it would take both second round picks to get him. I just don't think anyone is worth that much draft capital.

I only know him from reading about him and reading Miami message boards the last few days, and from the sound of it, he's a rock star. I did see Miami play once this season, and liked what I saw of him, but I wasn't really paying mucn attention.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think it'd be great to have him here for 3 more years at $2.5 per. Solid deal, and I still want a Day 2 RB tp spell Jones and be ready to step in for him when needed. I keep hearing people talking about how promising Wilson looks, but in the few times I've seen him, I have yet to see anything the least bit special. He's not very fast, doesn't seem very elusive, can't find a hole, and has a pretty poor RAS (6.8 something, I believe). You'd like a feature back to show some more basic athleticism, IMO.

Agreed that Gluten needs to find a RB on day two, and a real RB in the mold of Jones. Jones is and always will be a great Packer. He's got some miles on him now and the injuries are lasting longer. No surprise, it's a punishing position to play. And he has that intangible of inspiring players around him. He's an exciting player and a blast to watch.

And as for Wilson - if there's something to see in him I sure as hell haven't seen it. I don't even see the need to keep him on the PS.

Another option is a solid FA - I like Deandre Swift and he's affordable - but think it would be better to develop a home-grown talent, especially if/while Jones/Dillon are still intact. So the best bet is the draft.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Agreed that Gluten needs to find a RB on day two, and a real RB in the mold of Jones. Jones is and always will be a great Packer. He's got some miles on him now and the injuries are lasting longer. No surprise, it's a punishing position to play. And he has that intangible of inspiring players around him. He's an exciting player and a blast to watch.

The end comes quickly for most running backs, and usually starts by about age 30, which he will be by the end of the season. We remember him right now as having finished the year like a ball of fire, but we have to keep in mind that he either missed or was at least on a tight snapcount for over 1/3 of the season. This was the worst season of his career for injuries... is that a fluke, or does it mean the clock is ticking a little more loudly now?

The guy only has (at most) a couple of peak years left, and every single month brings him a month closer to the end of the road. The man has a violent running style, and has been tackled over 1800 times in college and the pros. And with Aaron Jones, more often than not "tackled" means "slammed to the ground by at least one man twice his size".

Another option is a solid FA - I like Deandre Swift and he's affordable - but think it would be better to develop a home-grown talent, especially if/while Jones/Dillon are still intact. So the best bet is the draft.

I know, but I just hate paying free agent money to running backs. By the time they get to that point, their career is at least 1/3 over, maybe closer to half over. I think that's one area where you're better off saving money for FA safeties and such, and drafting a young RB who hasn't been beaten half to death yet.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The end comes quickly for most running backs, and usually starts by about age 30, which he will be by the end of the season. We remember him right now as having finished the year like a ball of fire, but we have to keep in mind that he either missed or was at least on a tight snapcount for over 1/3 of the season. This was the worst season of his career for injuries... is that a fluke, or does it mean the clock is ticking a little more loudly now?

The guy only has (at most) a couple of peak years left, and every single month brings him a month closer to the end of the road. The man has a violent running style, and has been tackled over 1800 times in college and the pros. And with Aaron Jones, more often than not "tackled" means "slammed to the ground by at least one man twice his size".




I know, but I just hate paying free agent money to running backs. By the time they get to that point, their career is at least 1/3 over, maybe closer to half over. I think that's one area where you're better off saving money for FA safeties and such, and drafting a young RB who hasn't been beaten half to death yet.

I agree with you re: Jones and drafting a RB rather than FA. RBs do have the shortest careers out of all the positions. I love Jones' enthusiasm and fearlessness, but even he has to say enough at some point. And he really did miss a lotta games last year.

I'm sure the team would have won another one or two games with him, maybe more. Just highlights how important that position is to a team's success. They'll find a back somewhere on day two of the draft.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

I agree with you re: Jones and drafting a RB rather than FA. RBs do have the shortest careers out of all the positions. I love Jones' enthusiasm and fearlessness, but even he has to say enough at some point. And he really did miss a lotta games last year.

I'm sure the team would have won another one or two games with him, maybe more. Just highlights how important that position is to a team's success. They'll find a back somewhere on day two of the draft.

It is said to be a down year for running backs in the draft, but I imagine there are at least a few that Green Bay has to choose from...Johnathon Brooks, Blake Corum, Will Shipley, Ray Davis, and perhaps Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, to name a few. I think you could get one of those guys in the third round or later.

 

[gopkrs]

I don't know exactly what a lot of you are saying about Jones's future. But I for 1, hope he plays in GB until he retires. And I don't know when that will be. But I certainly think it will be when his skills definitely deteriorate. We really would not get any kind of return for him even now and I'm happy about that. Just pay him what he is worth to the team, (well not actually that much) for as long as he keeps going.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It is said to be a down year for running backs in the draft, but I imagine there are at least a few that Green Bay has to choose from...Johnathon Brooks, Blake Corum, Will Shipley, Ray Davis, and perhaps Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, to name a few. I think you could get one of those guys in the third round or later.

It's kinda hard to say how a RB will perform in the NFL based on college performance. Well that's true for a lot of positions. But yeah, coupled with a weak draft class for RBs, grab someone in the 3rd round and maybe another after that. Not impressed with Wilson, and Jones has another year, maybe two IMO.

I expect Dillon will stay in GB. The market for RBs has just collapsed in the last few years. It's a high risk position similar to pitchers in MLB.

 

[mradtke66]

It's kinda hard to say how a RB will perform in the NFL based on college performance. Well that's true for a lot of positions.

I think RB is one of the easier positions to project. At least for baseline can-carry-the-ball.

You don't have to be a physical freak, almost any body type and do it. The question is "how much is the player vs. his college line" and "can he pass protect."

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think RB is one of the easier positions to project. At least for baseline can-carry-the-ball.

You don't have to be a physical freak, almost any body type and do it. The question is "how much is the player vs. his college line" and "can he pass protect."

Yeah I agree with this. If anything, RBs who were average to above average in college can surprise in the NFL. I think Jones was a 4th round pick by TT.

Pass protection is probably something RBs don't do a lot in college, but it's a big part of the NFL game, especially in a RPO designed as a pass, and in secondary or safety blitz pickups.

Another highly desired skill for a RB is receiving - running routes, acting as a safety valve for a QB. And it gets a RB involved in the game without having to take a pounding running through the LOS. Christian McCaffrey is the best example, and Jones is pretty damn good at it as well.

I think it was Pete Dougherty who said GB could take as many as 3 RBs in the draft. Sounds about one too many to me. But Gluten and his team will be active looking for RBs.

 

[tynimiller]

Yeah I agree with this. If anything, RBs who were average to above average in college can surprise in the NFL. I think Jones was a 4th round pick by TT.

Pass protection is probably something RBs don't do a lot in college, but it's a big part of the NFL game, especially in a RPO designed as a pass, and in secondary or safety blitz pickups.

Another highly desired skill for a RB is receiving - running routes, acting as a safety valve for a QB. And it gets a RB involved in the game without having to take a pounding running through the LOS. Christian McCaffrey is the best example, and Jones is pretty damn good at it as well.

I think it was Pete Dougherty who said GB could take as many as 3 RBs in the draft. Sounds about one too many to me. But Gluten and his team will be active looking for RBs.

I just want to express something in general not directly at you - but Jones was anything but average in college.

His 2015 season was cut with injuries, but that dude in two seasons at UTEP when starter level:

2014 - 1614 all purpose yards / 1321 rushing yards with a 5.5 per rush / 293 receiving yards with a 9.8 per / 14 total TDs
2016 - 2,006 all purpose yards / 1,773 rushing yards with a 7.7 per rush / 233 receiving yards with a 8.3 per / 20 Total TDs

Yes it was UTEP, but Jones was a freaking stud in College.

Now small time school backs happen every year and not all pan out in the pros...like this year let's look at some of the best smaller school guys that are just freak yard studs:

New Hampshire's Dylan Laube - dude has put up over 1900 rushing yards last two years and over 1100 yards receiving last two.
Troy's Kimani Vidal - over 2700 rushing yards last two years (over 3400 past three) and 334 yards receiving.
Southern Miss's Frank Gore Jr - over 2400 yards last two years (over 3100 yards last three) and 440 yards receiving.
Monmouth's Jaden Shirden - over 3100 yards just the last two years (3600+ yds last three) and 150 yards receiving.

I bet one of those four at least is going to be a name we hear A LOT on sundays in a few years...who - that's tough to predict.

 

[tynimiller]

Honestly, if Jones desires to be in GB just for his career and GB is open to it....a lot of possibility exists to an extension with him. BEFORE you freak keep reading...

Truth is if Jones is healthy, yes someday is coming where he won't be able to give you 25-35 snaps at his high level play...BUT that hopefully hill heading down (not a cliff we pray) isn't here yet...

Say you extend him, at his age the likelihood of BIG money is gone on the open market...his nearly built a legacy in GB and would if allowed to play out his career (think Driver everyone). There is a way to easily put a touch more guarantee in his hands, have his cap hit be less than 6M a year forward and only use one year of void....keeping Aaron around that 6M/year cap hit is palatable for as long as he can play and truthfully at his age and position he should be somewhat willing to do such a deal...guarantee would be the kicker and how much that is.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I just want to express something in general not directly at you - but Jones was anything but average in college.

His 2015 season was cut with injuries, but that dude in two seasons at UTEP when starter level:

2014 - 1614 all purpose yards / 1321 rushing yards with a 5.5 per rush / 293 receiving yards with a 9.8 per / 14 total TDs
2016 - 2,006 all purpose yards / 1,773 rushing yards with a 7.7 per rush / 233 receiving yards with a 8.3 per / 20 Total TDs

Yes it was UTEP, but Jones was a freaking stud in College.

Now small time school backs happen every year and not all pan out in the pros...like this year let's look at some of the best smaller school guys that are just freak yard studs:

New Hampshire's Dylan Laube - dude has put up over 1900 rushing yards last two years and over 1100 yards receiving last two.
Troy's Kimani Vidal - over 2700 rushing yards last two years (over 3400 past three) and 334 yards receiving.
Southern Miss's Frank Gore Jr - over 2400 yards last two years (over 3100 yards last three) and 440 yards receiving.
Monmouth's Jaden Shirden - over 3100 yards just the last two years (3600+ yds last three) and 150 yards receiving.

I bet one of those four at least is going to be a name we hear A LOT on sundays in a few years...who - that's tough to predict.

Hey no offense taken and thanks for the stats.

It is tough with these small college guys who put up gaudy numbers. Same for QBs. I'm sure all teams have scouts who look at these guys to get a feel for the competition, the player, the team. And it will be interesting to see where the four guys you mention get drafted.

And it's another good example of how great players can come from smaller schools in smaller markets.

(And I'm betting Frank Gore Jr. does well. He certainly has good genes. Assuming he's THAT Frank Gore's son.)

 

[Heyjoe4]

Honestly, if Jones desires to be in GB just for his career and GB is open to it....a lot of possibility exists to an extension with him. BEFORE you freak keep reading...

Truth is if Jones is healthy, yes someday is coming where he won't be able to give you 25-35 snaps at his high level play...BUT that hopefully hill heading down (not a cliff we pray) isn't here yet...

Say you extend him, at his age the likelihood of BIG money is gone on the open market...his nearly built a legacy in GB and would if allowed to play out his career (think Driver everyone). There is a way to easily put a touch more guarantee in his hands, have his cap hit be less than 6M a year forward and only use one year of void....keeping Aaron around that 6M/year cap hit is palatable for as long as he can play and truthfully at his age and position he should be somewhat willing to do such a deal...guarantee would be the kicker and how much that is.

I agree. I'm pretty sure the Packers win 1 to 3 more games last season if he's available. I'm not concerned about the MCL injury. That **** happens. The soft tissue (hamstring) injury is different. I don't know it it's as chronic as it seems to be with Watson. That's an injury with a notoriously long recovery, and scar tissue becomes an issue.

But if he's the next version of Donald Driver - that's just fine with me.

And like Driver, there's the intangible that he makes his teammates better. He certainly gets the fans excited.

 

[Schultz]

Small school guys. My 2 favorite non-Packers of all-time. Jerry Rice and Walter Payton.