Cobb on trading block

[thequick12]

I guess he will not.

That's fair what's your guess as to what numbers he'll put up? And what say you about cobbs career numbers vs Landry's?

 

[HardRightEdge]

That's fair what's your guess as to what numbers he'll put up? And what say you about cobbs career numbers vs Landry's?

I'd say if Cobb plays, say, 15 out of 16 games his max upside would be something like 2015:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14053/randall-cobb

That said, I have a hard time seeing how he's going to get those 129 targets which was a byproduct of Nelson being out for the year, Jones being past his prime and Adams limping around the field most of the year. While the #2 wideout spot remains a question mark, today's RBs can all catch the ball quite well and there's not just one, but three, tight ends you'd want to throw the ball to instead of Richard Rodgers.

I think a more reasonable expectation would be numbers along the lines of his 2016 season, prorated up to 15 or 16 games, if he in fact plays that many.

Since you're obsessed with Landry's yards per catch, I'll share an observation. Over his 4 years he's ranked 25th, 12th, 14th. and 7th, in that order, in receiving first downs. He's being paid for what he has gradually become at the prime age of 26 and that's a guy who moves the chains in the short passing game. That may not count for much in fantasy football but in real football it counts for quite a bit. Throw in the fact a lot of those throws were run substitutions. If you want a guy who's super quick, tough as nails, has a below average drop rate for a slot receiver (a position where drops are high given the frequency of routes in the danger zone), and makes the defense account for the middle of the field, then he'd be your guy.

In short, he's an elite slot receiver. Is he the best slot receiver? I wouldn't care to guess. Is he worth $15 mil per year with an out after 3 years? I'll leave that up to you. Money issues aside, would I take him over Cobb? At the drop of a hat.

Landry has been QBed by Ryan Tannehill and then Jay Cutler last season. That's not exactly Aaron Rodgers QBing. How he'll do with Tyrod Taylor (and probably Mayfield before the year is out) is hard to reckon, but probably no worse than with Cutler. He'll move the chains for them.

I do not know if your assessment of Landry as "garbage" is simply homer-ism. Or is it his propensity for delivering crackback blocks? He ended Aaron Williams career with one and then slammed another Bill this preaseason on a borderline shot. I'm sure some Bills fans are calling him "garbage" but that is an unrelated matter.

 

[Dantés]

That's fair what's your guess as to what numbers he'll put up? And what say you about cobbs career numbers vs Landry's?

I know you didn’t ask me, but based on what he’s done lately, I would guess something like:

70 catches, 11 YPR, 770 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

That gives him a little bump to account for Jordy being gone without being a total outlier next to what he’s done for the last three years.

 

[thequick12]

No I mean Im curious to know what everyone thinks he'll put up. It seems I'm a bit more optimistic than you two but not by much.
So far we got :
80 for 1000 and 6tds 12.5
79 for 829 and 6tds 10.5
70 for 770 and 6tds 11

Averaged out that's 76 for 866 and 6tds 11.4 seems pretty realistic to me that he reaches those numbers

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Both Cobb and Matthews are going to get paid by someone after this season. And while it won't be for quite as much as they currently make I bet it will be close. As the cap has gone up lesser players have been getting paid more it's just the natural progression.

While I expect both Matthews and Cobb to receive offers next offseason I highly doubt any team will pay any of them close to what they're earning right now.

Ok maybe not 10 but definitely 8 for Matthews and who knows if he posts 12 sacks in 2018. And I would just like to say Landry is garbage he averaged 8.8 yards a catch in 2017. The only reason he has put up numbers is because of the huge number of targets he got on a garbage team. And I agree 3 years 24 million for cobbs next deal sounds about right. My point is he's still gonna get paid quite a bit it's not like he's gonna get a 2 year 4 million dollar deal.

You're putting way too much stock into yards per catch. Landry is third in the league in total receptions since being drafted in 2014.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That's fair what's your guess as to what numbers he'll put up? And what say you about cobbs career numbers vs Landry's?

Come on, its Cobb's contract year! He will put up 1250 yards, 14 yard average and 12 TD's.

 

[Mondio]

Come on, its Cobb's contract year! He will put up 1250 yards, 14 yard average and 12 TD's.

I'd be happy with that

 

[thequick12]

You're putting way too much stock into yards per catch. Landry is third in the league in total receptions since being drafted in 2014.

He was targeted 161 times in 2017 tied for 3rd in the league with Larry Fitzgerald. Just 1 target behind number 2 Antonio Brown. So yeah if you try and throw the ball to a guy over and over he's gonna have a lot of receptions. I would just hope he could do more with the ball than avg 8.8. Also if my memory serves me one of your arguments against JG when I first hypothesized the Packers would sign him was that he averaged only 9.1 yards per reception in 2017

 

[HardRightEdge]

No I mean Im curious to know what everyone thinks he'll put up. It seems I'm a bit more optimistic than you two but not by much.
So far we got :
80 for 1000 and 6tds 12.5
79 for 829 and 6tds 10.5
70 for 770 and 6tds 11

Averaged out that's 76 for 866 and 6tds 11.4 seems pretty realistic to me that he reaches those numbers

It's a silly exercise except from the fantasy perspective. That said, I'll offer the following silly per-game-played projection:

4.62 catches
46.92 yards
0.31 TDs

 

[thequick12]

It's a silly exercise except from the fantasy perspective. That said, I'll offer the following silly per-game-played projection:

4.62 catches
46.92 yards
0.31 TDs

So your at a silly 74 for 751 and 5 tds. I'd take that from Cobb if he plays 16 games. I just think his ypc goes up a bit more from 9.9 in 2017 than to just 10.1. Because JG is sure to garner a lot more attention in the middle of the field than Cobb will

 

[HardRightEdge]

He was targeted 161 times in 2017 tied for 3rd in the league with Larry Fitzgerald. Just 1 target behind num ber 2 Antonio Brown. So yeah if you try and throw the ball to a guy over and over he's gonna have a lot of receptions. I would just hope he could do more with the ball than avg 8.8. Also if my memory serves me one of your arguments against JG when I first hypothesized the Packers would sign him was that he averaged only 9.1 yards per reception in 2017.

So, here you are, comparing "garbage" Landy to Fitzgerald and Brown. Sheesh.

Perhaps another stat will help you out. Landry was 12th. in the league in yards after catch. Most of the leaders last season, like all the ones before, are running backs who catch a lot of balls behind or near the line of scrimmage in space. Landry was 4th. in YAC among WRs behind Tate, Brown and Tyreek Hill.

Among those 4 receivers, here are the percentages of their YAC yards relative to total yards along with their first down % per catch and average per catch from last season:

Tate: 54.4% YAC, 47.8% first downs, 10.9 yds. per catch
Landry: 47.2% YAC, 53.6% first downs, 8.8 yds. per catch
Hill: 39.4% YAC, 54.7% first downs, 15.8 yds. per catch
Brown: 32.1% YAC, 70.3% first downs, 15.2 yds. pr catch

These stats tell you something about "football" that fantasy points do not: how a player is used.

What do you make of Landry's high YAC but low yds. per catch playing with Cutler? He was thrown a lot of balls near the line of scrimmage. There are a lot of short slants and crosses in those numbers. And yet despite that fact Landry logged a high first down conversion rate because he's getting that high YAC %, often in tight spaces. Brown is at the other end of the spectrum with the stats illustrating he catches a high percentage of his balls downfield for first downs with a high percentage of his yards in the air, not on the ground. That's two players playing very different roles.

Consider Miami threw the ball 602 times last season with 33 sacks and 26 QB runs, which gets you to 661 pass plays less any kneel downs. I don't think Cutler or Moore would have had called runs, LOL. On the other hand, their run game was not very good with Ajayi before the trade or without him after the trade until Drake started getting double digit carries toward the end of the year. All told, RB/H-back carries totalled 330.

The throw-to-run ratio was on the higher side. And their yards per catch as a team was a very low 6.3. There's run game substitution in those Landry numbers as Miami tried to make lemonade out of their Cutler/Moore lemons with ball control passing.

Care to amend your "garbage" characterization?

Now, is Landy worth $15 mil per year and a 4th. and 7th. round pick in trade? Objectively speaking, I'd say "no". Is he worth it Cleveland? Evidently, and there may be some good reasons for that. Cleveland has 3 things going against it in the free agent market while at the same time having a ton of cap space:

1) Dreadful losing records in recent years.
2) It's a cold weather city.
3) It's Cleveland.

There's a Cleveland premium in that contract to get the bad taste out Landry's mouth in being traded there. Beggars can't be choosers.

How he'll be used with Taylor/Mayfield and how productive he'll be remains to be seen.

 

[HardRightEdge]

So your at a silly 74 for 751 and 5 tds.

And one silly pizza.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

There used to be a poster with the Frank Rizzo handle. Or was that the old Press-Gazette forum?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Why does anyone listen to Lombardi? He's friends with Bill Simmons, that's his only redeeming quality. Last year Lombardi said Pederson was the least qualified guy to coach a team that he's seen in the last 30 years. The guy is basically Skip Bayless without the guts to go as ridiculously, over-the-top as Bayless.

 

[thequick12]

I didn't compare him to those two. I said he had same number of targets. I don't think anyone is trying to say Landry is a top 5 NFL wr as brown certainly is nor a future first ballot hall of famer at the tail end of his career. I get it he makes a lot of short catches but again 12th doesn't really impress me especially when he's getting way more opportunities than almost any other receiver in the league.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

He was targeted 161 times in 2017 tied for 3rd in the league with Larry Fitzgerald. Just 1 target behind number 2 Antonio Brown. So yeah if you try and throw the ball to a guy over and over he's gonna have a lot of receptions. I would just hope he could do more with the ball than avg 8.8. Also if my memory serves me one of your arguments against JG when I first hypothesized the Packers would sign him was that he averaged only 9.1 yards per reception in 2017

Landry receiving a lot of targets means he's open quite a bit. In my opinion a pretty important trait for a wide receiver.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

He was targeted 161 times in 2017 tied for 3rd in the league with Larry Fitzgerald. Just 1 target behind number 2 Antonio Brown. So yeah if you try and throw the ball to a guy over and over he's gonna have a lot of receptions. I would just hope he could do more with the ball than avg 8.8. Also if my memory serves me one of your arguments against JG when I first hypothesized the Packers would sign him was that he averaged only 9.1 yards per reception in 2017

And this is why it is all Brett Hundley's fault he didn't have better numbers because im willing to bet more than half those passes his way came from that no accuracy dud QB. Hundley has no zip on his passes and nearly all his attempts at reaching Cobb and Nelson went into the ground.

 

[Heyjoe4]

No I mean Im curious to know what everyone thinks he'll put up. It seems I'm a bit more optimistic than you two but not by much.
So far we got :
80 for 1000 and 6tds 12.5
79 for 829 and 6tds 10.5
70 for 770 and 6tds 11

Averaged out that's 76 for 866 and 6tds 11.4 seems pretty realistic to me that he reaches those numbers

I’d be pretty happy if Cobb put up those numbers, assuming Adams cracks 1,000 yds and 10 or 12 TDs, and Graham is somewhere around 600 yds with 10 plus TDs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

And this is why it is all Brett Hundley's fault he didn't have better numbers because im willing to bet more than half those passes his way came from that no accuracy dud QB. Hundley has no zip on his passes and nearly all his attempts at reaching Cobb and Nelson went into the ground.

That’s one reason I was disappointed they let Nelson go. It was blamed on Nelson’s declining athletic ability. I don’t think that’s a fair assessment considering Hundley. Didn’t Nelson have like 6 TDs before Rodgers went down? Oh well, it’s in the past now, and the WR group is looking better and better. Maybe I’m just sentimental, but I wish Nelson was still around.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And this is why it is all Brett Hundley's fault he didn't have better numbers because im willing to bet more than half those passes his way came from that no accuracy dud QB. Hundley has no zip on his passes and nearly all his attempts at reaching Cobb and Nelson went into the ground.

As you replied to a post talking about Landry and Graham I'm quite sure Hundley didn't throw them any passes last season.

That’s one reason I was disappointed they let Nelson go. It was blamed on Nelson’s declining athletic ability. I don’t think that’s a fair assessment considering Hundley. Oh well, it’s in the past now, and the WR group is looking better and better.

The Packers primarily released Nelson because the move resulted in massive cap savings. Unfortunately I don't believe the receiving corps is currently even close to being as good as it was for most of the past few seasons.

 

[Mondio]

And this is why it is all Brett Hundley's fault he didn't have better numbers because im willing to bet more than half those passes his way came from that no accuracy dud QB. Hundley has no zip on his passes and nearly all his attempts at reaching Cobb and Nelson went into the ground.

Right on

2 things Hundley has problems with, a blitz and overthrows in the middle of the field. He's pretty accurate on the boundary and lack of zip isn't what is wrong with his game. If you want to complain, do it, but at least make it a legitimate one.

 

[Poppa San]

And this is why it is all Brett Hundley's fault he didn't have better numbers because im willing to bet more than half those passes his way came from that no accuracy dud QB. Hundley has no zip on his passes and nearly all his attempts at reaching Cobb and Nelson went into the ground.

Yet he was accurate enough and zippy enough to not affect Adams' numbers very much. And Cobbs numbers were not very much different either. Both lost a few yards per reception as the only meaningful difference. Numbers compared from '16 and '17. Cobbs catch % went up in '17.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Right on

2 things Hundley has problems with, a blitz and overthrows in the middle of the field. He's pretty accurate on the boundary and lack of zip isn't what is wrong with his game. If you want to complain, do it, but at least make it a legitimate one.

Agree. There’s nothing wrong with Hundley’s arm or even his accuracy. The problems are 1) holding the ball too long when in the pocket and 2) leaving the pocket early when the first receiver is covered. Granted, some of that blame goes to the O line. These are problems he had at UCLA and I haven’t seen much improvement. So off to Seattle he goes. Actually a pretty good deal by Glute becasue 2 months ago he would have gotten nothing. Kizer, while by no means remarkable, is at least as effective as Hundley. Hundley had three years. That’s long enough. Let’s just hope we never have to find out if Kizer can produce in a real game. That said, I prefer Kizer to Hundley simply becasue Hundley had reached his max.

 

[Heyjoe4]

As you replied to a post talking about Landry and Graham I'm quite sure Hundley didn't throw them any passes last season.



The Packers primarily released Nelson because the move resulted in massive cap savings. Unfortunately I don't believe the receiving corps is currently even close to being as good as it was for most of the past few seasons.

The current receiving corps, outside of Adams and Cobb, is untested and unknown. I think Allison has shown us all he has, and that makes him an “adequate” #3. As for the rest, the season will tell. Just a lot of unknowns with all three rookies very likely to be on the 53. Hopefully one of them, or Kumerow, will step up and become a true #3.

 

[Spanky]

Why does anyone listen to Lombardi? He's friends with Bill Simmons, that's his only redeeming quality. Last year Lombardi said Pederson was the least qualified guy to coach a team that he's seen in the last 30 years. The guy is basically Skip Bayless without the guts to go as ridiculously, over-the-top as Bayless.

Mike Lombardi is no Skip Bayless. He's actually well connected and well informed. Bill Belichick thinks highly of him, which says a lot.

His opinion on Doug Pederson turned out to be wrong. Big whoop. When you get paid to put your opinions on tape there will be some that turn out wrong.

BTW - he's right about Randall Cobb and Ian Rapaport was being used as a Packer front office stooge.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/video/bill-belichick-mike-lombardi-one-smartest-people-i-know

 

[Heyjoe4]

As you replied to a post talking about Landry and Graham I'm quite sure Hundley didn't throw them any passes last season.



The Packers primarily released Nelson because the move resulted in massive cap savings. Unfortunately I don't believe the receiving corps is currently even close to being as good as it was for most of the past few seasons.

Ultimately I understand the Nelson cut. Just thought it could have been handled better. But we all know it’s a business. I said the WR group is looking better, just based on the PS. Compared to prior years, the group certainly doesn’t have the proven depth. Hopefully that changes. But with that said, the PS is NOT the regular season. I want them to live up to their promise, and I’ll believe it when the Ws start to roll in. Going into the season, and outside of Adams, it’s a group of unknowns.