Cobb could be sidelined at start of camp

[Deleted member 6794]

Note: PFF's target counts are meaningfully lower than those found at pro-football-reference.com or espn.com. I don't know what filter they are using, perhaps throwaways.

As far as I'm aware PFF only considers a receiver to have been targeted if they deem the ball to be catchable.

 

[HardRightEdge]

As far as I'm aware PFF only considers a receiver to have been targeted if they deem the ball to be catchable.

I think I've seen PFF reference that filter in other places with other stats, though it would have been helpful for them to mention it in that piece. That would be consistent with a +/- 10% reduction in targets relative to those cited elsewhere.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A word or two on Cobb's snap counts and an observation regarding his fall off since 2014:

Targets (per espn.com) relative to snap counts (per Football Outsiders) are an overlooked factor in Cobb's productivity trajectory since the breakout 2014 season.

2014: 126 targets / 88% snap count
2015: 129 targets / 92% snap count
2016: 84 targets / 63% snap count
2017: 91 targets / 71% snap counts

If you extrapolate Cobbs headline numbers into a 90% snap count, you get the following targets / catches / yards / TDs / yards per catch:

2014: 129 / 93 / 1316 / 12 / 14.1
2015: 126 / 77 / 810 / 6 / 10.5
2016: 120 / 86 / 871 / 6 / 10.2
2017: 105 / 76 / 753 / 5 / 9.9

From the fall off in 2015 through 2017, the stats per snap are pretty consistent, though fewer targets in 2017 may be a function of Rodgers favoring Cobb more than Hundley.

What happened? I have a purely eyeball impression. In 2014, it strikes me that Cobb was Rodgers go-to guy on broken plays, euphemistically referred to as "extended plays", with a lot of downfield first downs. Defensive coaching may have caught up with that in 2015: "Stay with him all over the field no matter how long the play runs and no matter where Rodgers goes." To support that impression, we'd need QB average time-to-throw on Cobb targets for each of the years. In other words, don't abandon Cobb the way Randall did on the fateful Fitzgerald play even if the QB is in trouble or looking elsewhere.

If correct, I would expect to see Cobb's targets per snap and receivier QB rating on 2.5+ seconds to throw to be much higher in 2015 than in the subsequent season. I don't know if PFF tracks that and, if they did, how you'd get it.

If my theory is correct, tighter coverage on Cobb on extended plays would presumably accure to the other receivers, though this would be impossible to demonstrate.

 

[rodell330]

A month before training camp and already the injury crap is starting. SMH

You knew it was only a matter of time..we go through this every year. Better now he miss 4 weeks because of an ankle sprain than 4 games smh

 

[Dantés]

Cobb’s dubious injury history is a coup for Allison. Allison is arguably the least talented of the group: Allison, Moore, MVS, EQSTB, Yancey, and Clark. However, he is far and away the most established. The staff would be hard pressed to cut him, given that. If Davis holds on to the PR job, then it’s possible that only two of the rookies make the roster, and probable that both Yancey and Clark are gone.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think that Moore and St brown are gonna be good but this is exact reason nelson shouldn't of been cut. I'm sure had they tried something reasonable could have been worked out

I agree they should have kept Jordy, but it was clear from the “offer” they made that he wasn’t in Gluten’s plans. I hope it was the right decision to keep Cobb. I’m not happy about the way Jordy was treated - telling him they were moving on would have been better than making an offer they knew he’d refuse - so not much class with that move, especially given what Jordy has meant to the team and the community. As for Cobb, he needs a 1,000 yard year becasue that’s what he’s being paid for. Rodgers needs to go to the younger guys sooner. That may mean more INTs, but time is a luxury the Packers don’t have.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Cobb’s dubious injury history is a coup for Allison. Allison is arguably the least talented of the group: Allison, Moore, MVS, EQSTB, Yancey, and Clark. However, he is far and away the most established. The staff would be hard pressed to cut him, given that. If Davis holds on to the PR job, then it’s possible that only two of the rookies make the roster, and probable that both Yancey and Clark are gone.

Very interesting comment. I think Allison has shown us all he has. Davis is expendable now that Alexander can be the PR. There has to be someone on that roster that can step up. My money is on Moore or Clark, but it could easily be someone else. EQSB is interesting, but there must be a reason he fell so far in the draft. We shall see!

 

[Heyjoe4]

You knew it was only a matter of time..we go through this every year. Better now he miss 4 weeks because of an ankle sprain than 4 games smh

Agree. How does a guy get injured before training camp? The pessimist in me says it’s a persistent problem, so why keep him? Then again, I’ve been known to be wrong. Cobb is being paid like a 1,000 yard plus WR. Time he starts putting up those numbers, cause his recent production isn’t worth $12 mil/year.....

 

[Dantés]

Very interesting comment. I think Allison has shown us all he has. Davis is expendable now that Alexander can be the PR. There has to be someone on that roster that can step up. My money is on Moore or Clark, but it could easily be someone else. EQSB is interesting, but there must be a reason he fell so far in the draft. We shall see!

If Alexander is as big a staple on defense as I hope and expect, I’d prefer he not be the primary PR guy. I don’t want to expose him. Now if Ty can do it, I think that would be ideal.

 

[Dantés]

Agree. How does a guy get injured before training camp? The pessimist in me says it’s a persistent problem, so why keep him? Then again, I’ve been known to be wrong. Cobb is being paid like a 1,000 yard plus WR. Time he starts putting up those numbers, cause his recent production isn’t worth $12 mil/year.....

Cobb is definitely overpaid, but his salary on his current deal was based on his 2014 production. That version of Cobb was worth every penny. But he remains an above average slot who has a great rapport with Rodgers. And while he’s gotten hurt fairly often, he’s still been good for 13 starts over the past three seasons.

You keep him because cap savings are only worth what you can do with them. At this point, there’s no one to spend on. An argument could have been made that they could have cut him and done something more with the savings back during the early days of free agency, but I don’t think that would have been wise. They’re already moving on from Nelson. Had they cut Cobb too, Allison would have been the only receiver on the roster with previous experience with Rodgers. That would not be ideal.

Bottom line is that the Packers are a lot better off with an overpaid Cobb than without him. They can move on after this season once all these young players have some more experience under their belts.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Cobb’s dubious injury history is a coup for Allison. Allison is arguably the least talented of the group: Allison, Moore, MVS, EQSTB, Yancey, and Clark. However, he is far and away the most established. The staff would be hard pressed to cut him, given that. If Davis holds on to the PR job, then it’s possible that only two of the rookies make the roster, and probable that both Yancey and Clark are gone.

Allison's a placeholder a la Jarret Boykin, a bench guy who got a lot of snaps with Cobb missing 10 games and James Jones missing 2.

If the competition doesn't get Allison the concussions will. He may start week 1, but I'd be very surprised if that's the case post-bye. Most of the other guys in line simply bring more talent. There's also a theme to this years picks: big and strong or big and fast. Strong and fast are qualities Allison lacks; there's a clear intent to upgrade the position and the bar is not very high.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don't know why it is assumed Cobb was injured, as in recently at minicamp. He might have swung by the doc's office on the way out of town for a clean-up.

 

[Dantés]

Allison's a placeholder a la Jarret Boykin, a bench guy who got a lot of snaps with Cobb missing 10 games and James Jones missing 2.

If the competition doesn't get Allison the concussions will. He may start week 1, but I'd be very surprised if that's the case post-bye. Most of the other guys in line simply bring more talent. There's also a theme to this years picks: big and strong or big and fast. Strong and fast are qualities Allison lacks; there's a clear intent to upgrade the position and the bar is not very high.

I totally agree on Allison’s prospects long term, and I would prefer if one of the youngsters took his job in camp and made him expendable. But the young players may not be ready and Rodgers seems to like Allison. So I expect he will have a role for one more season.

Of the rookies, I see St. Brown as the likeliest to surprise immediately and take his job. He’s the most refined of the young players and is coming out of a pro style offense. It also doesn’t hurt that a lot of his practice/preseason reps will come with his college QB. That familiarity could help him excel past teammates.

 

[Dantés]

I don't know why it is assumed Cobb was injured, as in recently at minicamp. He might have swung by Dr. Andrews' office on the way out of town for a clean-up.

I also don’t know why it matters as long as he’s good to go and get into shape by mid August. He’s not going to suffer tremendously from the lack of reps in camp.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What happened? I have a purely eyeball impression. In 2014, it strikes me that Cobb was Rodgers go-to guy on broken plays, euphemistically referred to as "extended plays", with a lot of downfield first downs. Defensive coaching may have caught up with that in 2015: "Stay with him all over the field no matter how long the play runs and no matter where Rodgers goes."

If my theory is correct, tighter coverage on Cobb on extended plays would presumably accure to the other receivers, though this would be impossible to demonstrate.

I guess Nelson missing the entire season in 2015 resulted in defenses shifting coverage towards Cobb offering an explanation for his numbers declining. It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to rebound over the past two seasons though.

If Alexander is as big a staple on defense as I hope and expect, I’d prefer he not be the primary PR guy. I don’t want to expose him. Now if Ty can do it, I think that would be ideal.

Montgomery had success returning punts during his senior year at Stanford averaging 19.8 yards on 12 attempts with two touchdowns. Interestingly the Packers haven't used him in that role so far.

They’re already moving on from Nelson. Had they cut Cobb too, Allison would have been the only receiver on the roster with previous experience with Rodgers. That would not be ideal.

I agree that the Packers made the right decision to keep Cobb but it seems you forgot about Adams having previous experience with Rodgers throwing him the ball.

I totally agree on Allison’s prospects long term, and I would prefer if one of the youngsters took his job in camp and made him expendable. But the young players may not be ready and Rodgers seems to like Allison. So I expect he will have a role for one more season.

Of the rookies, I see St. Brown as the likeliest to surprise immediately and take his job. He’s the most refined of the young players and is coming out of a pro style offense. It also doesn’t hurt that a lot of his practice/preseason reps will come with his college QB. That familiarity could help him excel past teammates.

In my opinion it's possible that Allison doesn't make the roster this season. While it's true that he might present a better option early this season the Packers might not want to risk losing any of the rookies who have more upside in the long haul.

I expect Moore, Valdes-Scantlig and St. Brown to receive significant practice snaps with Rodgers to build some chemistry. Therefore I'm not sure EQ will benefit from Kizer throwing him the ball all that much.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I also don’t know why it matters as long as he’s good to go and get into shape by mid August. He’s not going to suffer tremendously from the lack of reps in camp.

Yeah, 7 year vet, same HC, same system, same QB throughout. From the standpoint of mental preparation he could roll out of bed and play. It's a matter of conditioning, as you say, getting the legs and hands in game day shape.

Where it would matter is that a clean-up suggests something not very serious. A new injury could be anything. We don't know, yet some prefer to "panic".

 

[HardRightEdge]

Montgomery had success returning punts during his senior year at Stanford averaging 19.8 yards on 12 attempts with two touchdowns. Interestingly the Packers haven't used him in that role so far.

He got chances in preseason as a rookie.

2015, Preseason Week 1, New England: 2 for 14 yards
2015, Preseason Week 2, Pittsburgh: 1 for 10 yards

And that was that unless he had fair catches or no-touch snaps in other games. Janis and then Abbrederis took over starting in the second half of that Week 2 game. In 2016 preseason it was Abbrederis, Davis and Hyde. In 2017 preseason it was Davis, McCaffrey and Rollins.

I checked out the tape on those 2015 Montgomery returns using espn.com's play-by-play to get the play times and then the NFL Game Pass tape archive to view them.

In the Week 1 game, in addition to the 2 returns, he had 2 fair catches and there were 2 other sideline kicks with a lot of air under them where he let the ball hit the ground instead of coming up to fair catch. Not coming up to fair catch is a pet peeve of mine with Davis as well. It's dangerous, it takes balls, but it's part of the job.

In the Week 2 game, on the one return, he misjudged it a little and stumbled getting started. He had a lot of free run to get 10 yards. In addition to the 1 return, he let a sideline line drive ball hit at the 5 which was downed at the 1, followed by a safety. The decision was not unreasonable. After that, Janis took over in the second half.

Here are my impressions of Montgomery fielding punts:

He does not look natural doing it. A couple of the punts he caught hands up toward the face. Then there's that misjudged ball in Week 2. It looks like he has trouble judging the ball flight. This is consistent with his college tape as a receiver which showed poor tracking and adjustment to deep balls. Letting a couple of catchable balls hit the ground may be less business decisions (which may be Davis' problem) and more misjudging ball flight.

Davis is a much more natural fielder of the football. If you want to displace him, the best candidate who shows natural tracking and fielding of the football and elusiveness in his gitalong can be found at the 1:38 mark in the following tape:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

I wouldn't risk it, though.

 

[Dantés]

I guess Nelson missing the entire season in 2015 resulted in defenses shifting coverage towards Cobb offering an explanation for his numbers declining. It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to rebound over the past two seasons though.



Montgomery had success returning punts during his senior year at Stanford averaging 19.8 yards on 12 attempts with two touchdowns. Interestingly the Packers haven't used him in that role so far.



I agree that the Packers made the right decision to keep Cobb but it seems you forgot about Adams having previous experience with Rodgers throwing him the ball.



In my opinion it's possible that Allison doesn't make the roster this season. While it's true that he might present a better option early this season the Packers might not want to risk losing any of the rookies who have more upside in the long haul.

I expect Moore, Valdes-Scantlig and St. Brown to receive significant practice snaps with Rodgers to build some chemistry. Therefore I'm not sure EQ will benefit from Kizer throwing him the ball all that much.

I forgot to say “other than Adams.”

Wouldn’t you think that those receivers will spend the majority of their preseason snaps with Kizer on the field?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I guess Nelson missing the entire season in 2015 resulted in defenses shifting coverage towards Cobb offering an explanation for his numbers declining. It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to rebound over the past two seasons though.

I mentioned the primary factor in Cobb not getting back to anything near 2014 productivity may have been a defensive dictate: don't quit on Cobb when Rodgers extends even if Cobb looks like he's out of the play.

Conveniently, the link in the OP in the recent thread "Rodgers at His Best" has an illustration. Here is that link again; check out the play at 3:24:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

That was the second to last play of the 2013 regular season. By 2015, I suspect that safeties and corners were no longer letting him loose.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Of the rookies, I see St. Brown as the likeliest to surprise immediately and take his job. He’s the most refined of the young players and is coming out of a pro style offense. It also doesn’t hurt that a lot of his practice/preseason reps will come with his college QB. That familiarity could help him excel past teammates.

I don't think there's any question St. Brown's a smooth route runner with a more developed route tree than Moore, the latter pretty much confined to sideline routes at Missou.

A few thing bother me about St. Brown. First, while smooth, he rounds off his breaks. I don't think you can get away with that against NFL corners who will step in front of those throws. Second, the fact St. Brown's dad said "no" to him playing special teams at Notre Dame sticks in my craw, the most golden of Golden Domers. It speaks to competitiveness and the team concept. Third, he did not run the cone and shuttle at the Combine or Pro Day because of a knee issue. Was that legit? Is it a lingering problem? Or did he know the times would not be good?

Moore's a grittier player in keeping with the Missouri vs. Notre Dame cliche. He's more physical and competitive at the ball and he's an enthusiastic run blocker. His breaks are sharper on those occasions where he isn't just running down the sidelines. Those are key traits in the NFL where separation is harder to come by. Moore's best bit of tape, Nelson-like, that I've seen is at 2:54 in the following link despite Moore getting tripped:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

I don't think that route run that way is in St. Brown's repertoire.

I'm also not concerned with Moore's 40 Combine time. I don't see any defenders gaining ground on him once he's in stride. He's a long striding guy but with outstanding quickness evidenced in his cone and shuttle times. It would serve him well to study Adams' footwork.

St. Brown's a long strider but I'm not seeing the sharpness Moore demonstrates.

St. Brown may have the early lead with the more developed route tree coming in, but I can see why Moore was drafted ahead of him. For Moore, the mental aspect will determine how fast he can close the gap, albeit a pretty big gap. Moore is the superior raw talent.

I would not go to sleep on Valdez-Scantling either. The speed is evident. He looks to have soft hands and quickness. He could break college tackles; his 15 lifts were not bad. No telling what kind of numbers he would have put up if his QB had not underthown on nearly every downfield clip. He does have the look of a guy who needs to play in space, though. Then there's the level of competition thing and the lack of sophistication at that level.

Yancey, Clark...there could be a jump there.

We just have to see these guys play in this system in preseason to see who's showing signs of getting it and who isn't.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Maybe 5 for Monty is on the high end... but I'm sold on him. I'd lock him in at that for 5 years if he would do it... then I would feed him the ball.

I admit Jones has me about as excited as Monty had me the year before... Williams impressed me but ended up injured, as did Jones, and Monty...but I don't see Williams at their level... solid back up imo. Hope he proves me wrong...

That said. We just paid Adams a fortune. And even though Monty isn't as good a wr as Adams. He is just as good of athlete... and at 1/3 rd of the price, I'd be very happy... then feed him the ball.

Montgomery is 25 years old this year...

I'm sort of surprised that people are arguing so confidently that Cobb making 10 is OK and Monty making 5 is not?

Sign Monty for 5, and feed him the ball. 10 carries/10 targets. Every game. He should be the dump off guy. Rodgers needs to use that dump off more. Protect himself, and have that #88 on check down as soon as he feels the heat.

 

[firstdown]

He got chances in preseason as a rookie.

2015, Preseason Week 1, New England: 2 for 14 yards
2015, Preseason Week 2, Pittsburgh: 1 for 10 yards

And that was that unless he had fair catches or no-touch snaps in other games. Janis and then Abbrederis took over starting in the second half of that Week 2 game. In 2016 preseason it was Abbrederis, Davis and Hyde. In 2017 preseason it was Davis, McCaffrey and Rollins.

I checked out the tape on those 2015 Montgomery returns using espn.com's play-by-play to get the play times and then the NFL Game Pass tape archive to view them.

In the Week 1 game, in addition to the 2 returns, he had 2 fair catches and there were 2 other sideline kicks with a lot of air under them where he let the ball hit the ground instead of coming up to fair catch. Not coming up to fair catch is a pet peeve of mine with Davis as well. It's dangerous, it takes balls, but it's part of the job.

In the Week 2 game, on the one return, he misjudged it a little and stumbled getting started. He had a lot of free run to get 10 yards. In addition to the 1 return, he let a sideline line drive ball hit at the 5 which was downed at the 1, followed by a safety. The decision was not unreasonable. After that, Janis took over in the second half.

Here are my impressions of Montgomery fielding punts:

He does not look natural doing it. A couple of the punts he caught hands up toward the face. Then there's that misjudged ball in Week 2. It looks like he has trouble judging the ball flight. This is consistent with his college tape as a receiver which showed poor tracking and adjustment to deep balls. Letting a couple of catchable balls hit the ground may be less business decisions (which may be Davis' problem) and more misjudging ball flight.

Davis is a much more natural fielder of the football. If you want to displace him, the best candidate who shows natural tracking and fielding of the football and elusiveness in his gitalong can be found at the 1:38 mark in the following tape:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

I wouldn't risk it, though.

Thanks for the video. Alexander had SEVEN blockers within 10 yards of where he caught the ball, blocking 7 defenders. Textbook special teams blocking. On Davis' 65 yard return against Cleveland, we had 8 guys at the line trying to block the punt, which left only two blockers for Davis. After Davis caught the ball, it was him and only one blocker surrounded by 7 Cleveland defenders.

Alexander- 7 blockers for 7 defenders. Davis- 1 blocker for 7 defenders. Amazing and timely return by Davis. Crunch time, we needed it and Davis delivered. I'll take Davis over Alexander returning punts any day.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Wouldn’t you think that those receivers will spend the majority of their preseason snaps with Kizer on the field?

With the Packers being in need of at least one of the rookie receivers contributing this season I expect all of them to get a ton of snaps with Rodgers in training camp to build some chemistry with #12.

Maybe 5 for Monty is on the high end... but I'm sold on him. I'd lock him in at that for 5 years if he would do it... then I would feed him the ball.

I'm sort of surprised that people are arguing so confidently that Cobb making 10 is OK and Monty making 5 is not?

There's no doubt Cobb is overpaid based on his production over the past three seasons. That doesn't mean it would be smart to overpay for Montgomery as well who hasn't shown anything justifying signing him to a five-year deal or paying him $5 million a season.

I'll take Davis over Alexander returning punts any day.

Davis has to make smarter decisions on when to return or fair catch a punt though.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Thanks for the video. Alexander had SEVEN blockers within 10 yards of where he caught the ball, blocking 7 defenders. Textbook special teams blocking. On Davis' 65 yard return against Cleveland, we had 8 guys at the line trying to block the punt, which left only two blockers for Davis. After Davis caught the ball, it was him and only one blocker surrounded by 7 Cleveland defenders.

Alexander- 7 blockers for 7 defenders. Davis- 1 blocker for 7 defenders. Amazing and timely return by Davis. Crunch time, we needed it and Davis delivered. I'll take Davis over Alexander returning punts any day.

Davis will likely have to be more than a punt returner to make the roster this season - If he can't contribute more as a WR, special teams play probably isn't enough for GB to keep him around.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Davis will likely have to be more than a punt returner to make the roster this season - If he can't contribute more as a WR, special teams play probably isn't enough for GB to keep him around.

I don't expect Davis to contribute as a wide receiver. In my opinion the only way he makes the roster is if the Packers aren't able to adequately replace him as a returner.