Breaking Down the NFC North

[OldSchool101]

1. Haven't you read the Tonyan posts. Touchdowns are over rated.
2. Put Cook in a backfield with Rodgers and Jones in a backfield with Cousins and the tie is easily broken.

Interesting thought. I would think that works the other way around as well. Doesn’t the Running game set up the pass? That argument is purely opinion.
Maybe to a humble player TD’d don’t matter. Those guys want Wins not TD’s and I respect a humble player like Tonyan. But I can assure you TD’s matter very much.
Ask whoever casts votes for MVP.

But tell that one to the team’s HC that was on the short end of 31-26 Or 51-45 or 28-22 and see if you don’t get run out on a rail. You’d better be the guy that scored 17TD’s or you’ll be packing your bags!

 

[Dantés]

Really? I’m perplexed by this actually. So in what you and agree as the most important area as a runner, you think Jones having 651 touches over a 4 year span vs. Cook getting 769 touches in the exact number of starts is not an adequate sample size to judge their ability? I would take the RB who has 5.2 per carry and scores a TD every 17.6 touches and fumbled half as much (6)
VS.
a RB that has 4.8 per carry and that scores a TD every 23.3 touches? (Cook) and fumbled nearly twice as much (12)

As you said they are both excellent, that’s not the argument I’m making. My argument is Jones is NOT inferior to Cook. I’ve seen that being tossed around a bunch and people have bought into it... but it’s not statistically accurate and I’m sticking up for A Jones. The man has been underestimated, especially by Vikings fans. They argued with me in this last year and Vikings fans wrote Jones off after Cooks fast start. Jones came back like a boomerang. He’s every bit as great a RB.

Also, there’s a reason the Packers stepped up and signed a RB for 12mil per season. He’s an absolute monster. The Jones/Dillon duo is likely the best total RB package to ever suit up for Green Bay. We will see, but I think Dillon will be better than Lacy at his prime.

I think Cook averaging 5.0 YPC on 312 carries is the most impressive performance as a rusher of either player in their 8 combined NFL seasons.

I also think Cook is the superior runner based on watching him play as much as looking back on the statistics. Just as I would argue Jones' superiority as a receiver largely based on what I have seen of him in the passing game, and not necessarily because of yardage or catch numbers.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well to be fair that is why you place the line at a reasonable spot. With Love the range of expectations would be broad and arguably unknown by anyone. I wouldn't be shocked either direction the team would go win 6 or win 10 honestly. Hence the self declared over/under at 7.5

As Sunshine already pointed out I would be shocked if the Packers would end up winning 10 games with Love starting. I think it's more likely they would compete for the #1 overall pick in 2022 in that case.

The Packers have a strong roster. If Jordan Love as a rookie could manage a 90-95 Passer Rating type of season (especially considering he might add some rush value), it's not absurd to think the Packers could manage 10 wins in a 17 game schedule.

Their scoring differential could come down significantly, and they could still be in that neighborhood.

There's zero guarantee that Love would offer that kind of season, but it's not a crazy idea either.

That might be unrealistic to expect as only 12 out of 69 quarterbacks have put up a rating of 90 or above during their first 16 starts over the past 10 seasons.

And that number doesn't even include the ones that haven't been good enough to make that many starts.

 

[Schultz]

Old school.
1. They need a sarcasm button on here. I was making fun of the guys trying to downplay Tonyan's season.
2. Cook see's way more 7 man fronts than Jones due to who their QBs are.

 

[tynimiller]

As Sunshine already pointed out I would be shocked if the Packers would end up winning 10 games with Love starting. I think it's more likely they would compete for the #1 overall pick in 2022 in that case.



That might be unrealistic to expect as only 12 out of 69 quarterbacks have put up a rating of 90 or above during their first 16 starts over the past 10 seasons.

And that number doesn't even include the ones that haven't been good enough to make that many starts.

Sorry but you’re off your rocker in my opinion if you think Green Bay would be in the hunt for number one pick for 2022 draft.

 

[Schultz]

That depends on who they trade Rodgers to.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well I’ll just compliment you on the summary as a whole, it was a good synopsis of the total picture.

As far as the RB sector. Obviously we’re both splitting hairs on these 2 RB’s, there’s just not a big difference right now and I’d be happy with either at this point of their careers. Although we may see one break away and it could easily be Cook (although Aaron Jones hasn’t minced words about thinking he’ll still get better) It’s more forward projection than history anyway so that’s fine.

I will say as far as Mattison vs Dillon. My projection is that Dillon will have the edge once he gets a bigger workload, which should be this season we hope. I see Dillons floor as Mattison’s average career production (100 carries X 4.5) but Dillons ceiling could be special (150 carries X 5.3) That’s going to depend as much on the direction our O-line goes and how we plan on splitting workload.
That part is where I AM with you on the 6 OL draft picks (plus Nijman) I see a really good grouping of Run Blockers and with Deguara and Lewis coming back and WR’s who are on the bigger side and seem to be proactive in the blocking scheme. I see Dillon taking advantage of it. He already looks confident and he’s barely been on the field. When he’s out there teams have been on notice.
There’s a new #2 in GB... and he’s a 4WD posi-traction Superduty 1 Ton (Mattison is a 3/4 ton)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Sorry but you’re off your rocker in my opinion if you think Green Bay would be in the hunt for number one pick for 2022 draft.

I hope we won't get anywhere close to finding out.

 

[tynimiller]

I hope we won't get anywhere close to finding out.

100% with you there!

 

[gbgary]

trading Rodgers doesn't improve the team's cap situation at all.

i highly doubt you understand the cap.

Trading Rodgers after June 1st
If the Packers were to trade Rodgers after June 1st, however, the calculation changes drastically. The team would still absorb the same amount of dead money in total, but it would be split up over 2021 and 2022.

2021 would see only $21.152 million in dead money from the roster bonus and the signing bonus money that was due to hit this year. The rest of the signing bonus money — $17.204 million from the 2022 and 2023 years — would hit the books in 2022 instead.

That would free up $22.85 million in salary cap space in 2021 and another $25.5 million for 2022 while clearing the contract off the books entirely for 2023.

 

[tynimiller]

If Rodgers is still on this team by say June 4th or so I'll finally be comfortable saying he is going to be here week 1. The cap distribution/hit which occurs post June 1st is massive - and the sole reason I if I were GM would not consider trading Rodgers until after.

 

[AmishMafia]

I need to weigh in on the RB issue. I don't think it should be judges on the .out i.portant aspect of a player, but on the overall benefit to the team. So running, blocking, receiving, special teams, leadership, and durability should all factor into the equation.


I think Cook is a better runner, but that's about it.

Jones is a better receiver, blocker, and more durable. He is also nearly as good of a runner.

I would venture to guess that if 32 GMs had to choose ones it would be 32-0 for Jones. And the durability advantage being the main difference.

 

[tynimiller]

I need to weigh in on the RB issue. I don't think it should be judges on the .out i.portant aspect of a player, but on the overall benefit to the team. So running, blocking, receiving, special teams, leadership, and durability should all factor into the equation.


I think Cook is a better runner, but that's about it.

Jones is a better receiver, blocker, and more durable. He is also nearly as good of a runner.

I would venture to guess that if 32 GMs had to choose ones it would be 32-0 for Jones. And the durability advantage being the main difference.

I am on the same boat as you in comparing Jones the football player vs Cook the football player.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

i highly doubt you understand the cap.

Trading Rodgers after June 1st
If the Packers were to trade Rodgers after June 1st, however, the calculation changes drastically. The team would still absorb the same amount of dead money in total, but it would be split up over 2021 and 2022.

2021 would see only $21.152 million in dead money from the roster bonus and the signing bonus money that was due to hit this year. The rest of the signing bonus money — $17.204 million from the 2022 and 2023 years — would hit the books in 2022 instead.

That would free up $22.85 million in salary cap space in 2021 and another $25.5 million for 2022 while clearing the contract off the books entirely for 2023.

You're completely wrong about me not understanding the cap. As mentioned repeatedly, in total trading Rodgers before or after June 1 doesn't make any difference regarding the cap.

As a side note, the numbers you posted above are off as whoever came up with them forgot about the Packers paying Rodgers a $6.8 million roster bonus in March as well as the prorated portion of the signing bonus for the 2023 season counting against the cap in 2022 if he was traded this offseason. That means the Packers would save $16.05 million of cap space by trading him after June 1 for the 2021 season and another $22.65 million for the 2022.

While they would actually lose $1.15 million of cap space for the 2021 season by trading him before June 1 they would save a total of $39.85 million in 2022 that way.

In total, trading him this offseason ends up saving the team a total of $38.7 million of cap space until the end of the 2022 season.

 

[gbgary]

You're completely wrong about me not understanding the cap. As mentioned repeatedly, in total trading Rodgers before or after June 1 doesn't make any difference regarding the cap.

As a side note, the numbers you posted above are off as whoever came up with them forgot about the Packers paying Rodgers a $6.8 million roster bonus in March as well as the prorated portion of the signing bonus for the 2023 season counting against the cap in 2022 if he was traded this offseason. That means the Packers would save $16.05 million of cap space by trading him after June 1 for the 2021 season and another $22.65 million for the 2022.

While they would actually lose $1.15 million of cap space for the 2021 season by trading him before June 1 they would save a total of $39.85 million in 2022 that way.

In total, trading him this offseason ends up saving the team a total of $38.7 million of cap space until the end of the 2022 season.

you said trading Rodgers doesn't improve the team's cap situation at all. you've clearly realized the error in what you said. i've said all the stuff in your above post before. they take a small hit this year if it's before june 1st (but it saves them a ton next year), and if they wait until after june first they save this year AND next (total $39-ish million saved). this helps them extend Adams, Alexander, and others. helps them absorb salaries of who they acquire in the trade, etc. they're still going to end up cutting people.

 

[Half Empty]

Is one of you talking about cap, and the other talking about cash?

 

[gbgary]

Is one of you talking about cap, and the other talking about cash?

i'm talking cap...which is what this team's biggest problem is (the team has plenty of cash). Rodgers off the books creates cap space which in turn allows the team to acquire more talent in other areas.

 

[Half Empty]

Then I don't understand places like Sportrac https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/ that show a $1,154,000 LOSS of cap with a pre-June action and post-June Dead Cap: $21,152,000 with 2022 Dead Cap: $17,204,000 for a 2021 Cap Savings: $16,050,000 and overall loss of the same $1,154 mil.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

you said trading Rodgers doesn't improve the team's cap situation at all. you've clearly realized the error in what you said. i've said all the stuff in your above post before. they take a small hit this year if it's before june 1st (but it saves them a ton next year), and if they wait until after june first they save this year AND next (total $39-ish million saved). this helps them extend Adams, Alexander, and others. helps them absorb salaries of who they acquire in the trade, etc. they're still going to end up cutting people.

You're right that I phrased it incorrectly in one of my previous posts. The fact remains that trading Rodgers before or after June results in the same amount of total cap space saved though.

In addition it's a weird way to look at it this way as the Packers trading any player during the offseason would result in cap savings. That doesn't make it a smart move by any means though.

 

[Air2theThrown]

The next in line is also clear, as Kirk Cousins is good without being elite. Deciding between the Bears and Lions for last is tricky, as Goff has a hard ceiling (and likely a lower one without McVay), but is much more experienced than Fields. I will give Goff the nod, but could see that flipping really quickly if Fields is a quick learner.

Goff has been to the pro bowl two out of the last 4 years. He’s also been the second winningest QB since he became a starter. The only QB to win more games than him is Tom Brady. Not to mention he did take the Rams to a SB too. I get that everyone wants to credit McVay and the Rams team but Goff has been a pretty good starter and he’s only 26 years old.

I would say the QB ranking is 1. GB, 2. DET, 3. MIN, 4. CHI.

 

[Air2theThrown]

Sewell was the best OL in the class, and likely allows Crosby, a middling tackle, to move inside. Vaitai is overpaid, but certainly a high end player to be a swing tackle.

FYI - Crosby is DET’s swing tackle. Vaitai was signed to start at RT in place of Wagner who the Lions cut and GB signed but Vaitai battled injuries all last season which allowed Crosby to start most of the season. Vaitai is projected to be the Lions starting RG and Crosby the Swing.

I agree with your ranking but I wanted to point out this error.

 

[Air2theThrown]

The Lions bring up the rear, as they have solid run defenders on the edge, but lack dangerous pass rushers.

FYI - The Lions Romeo Okwara had 10 sacks in 9 starts in 2020. Just 2.5 Sacks shy of Smith who started 16 games. Okwara averaged more sacks per snap than any Edge player in the NFCN. What I find impressive about this is that Patricia didn’t want his edge guys to apply pressure. He wanted them to contain. Flowers isn’t a slouch either. I actually think GB and DET are fairly close in this depth.

Personally I think CHI has the best rotation of DE/ Edge guys in the NFCN. Mario Edwards, Hakeem Hicks, Kahil Mack, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith all move around and take snaps off the edge and all are capable of getting to the QB. With the addition of OLB Attaochu who had 5 sacks in limited usage in DEN that group can apply some serious pressure when they are all healthy.

Last season MIN was the worst in the NFCN and to be honest I think they have the least amount of talent here.

I’d rank this group as 1. CHI 2. GB 3. DET 4. MIN

I’m giving the edge to GB over DET based solely off Smiths consistency over Okwara’s inconsistency. But it wouldn’t shock me if DET makes strides in this depth now that Patricia is gone. They have some promising unproven talent too. It will be interesting to see who’s youth steps up the most this season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Goff has been to the pro bowl two out of the last 4 years. He’s also been the second winningest QB since he became a starter. The only QB to win more games than him is Tom Brady. Not to mention he did take the Rams to a SB too. I get that everyone wants to credit McVay and the Rams team but Goff has been a pretty good starter and he’s only 26 years old.

I would say the QB ranking is 1. GB, 2. DET, 3. MIN, 4. CHI.

Goff ranks only 15th in passer rating over the past four seasons among 34 qualified quarterbacks and has regressed over the past two seasons. I definitely don't consider him an upgrade over Stafford.

 

[Schultz]

Goff had the rep of being a bad QB on a good team. Stafford had the rep of being a good QB on a bad team. This year should shed some light on the subject.

 

[Dantés]

FYI - The Lions Romeo Okwara had 10 sacks in 9 starts in 2020. Just 2.5 Sacks shy of Smith who started 16 games. Okwara averaged more sacks per snap than any Edge player in the NFCN. What I find impressive about this is that Patricia didn’t want his edge guys to apply pressure. He wanted them to contain. Flowers isn’t a slouch either. I actually think GB and DET are fairly close in this depth.

Personally I think CHI has the best rotation of DE/ Edge guys in the NFCN. Mario Edwards, Hakeem Hicks, Kahil Mack, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith all move around and take snaps off the edge and all are capable of getting to the QB. With the addition of OLB Attaochu who had 5 sacks in limited usage in DEN that group can apply some serious pressure when they are all healthy.

Last season MIN was the worst in the NFCN and to be honest I think they have the least amount of talent here.

I’d rank this group as 1. CHI 2. GB 3. DET 4. MIN

I’m giving the edge to GB over DET based solely off Smiths consistency over Okwara’s inconsistency. But it wouldn’t shock me if DET makes strides in this depth now that Patricia is gone. They have some promising unproven talent too. It will be interesting to see who’s youth steps up the most this season.

I take your points regarding Goff and Crosby. I think Goff will take a step backwards without the offensive system that he was a part of. But that's projection. I understand that you disagree.

Okwara is a fine player, but he is not-- in my opinion-- the type of player that you build a pass rush around. Neither is Trey Flowers. Either would be good 2nd options on a defensive front, but every other team in the division brings a special player to the table that stands well above either (Za'Darius in GB, Hunter in MIN, and Mack in CHI). If either one is the top pass rusher on your team, you're probably going to struggle. When you combine that with the very minimal depth beyond the starters, and the absence of dangerous interior pass rusher, I am pretty confident in where I ranked Detroit.

There's also no way I rank the Bears above the Packers.

Za'Darius Smith >> Khalil Mack

Rashan Gary >> Robert Quinn

Preston Smith >> Jerry Attaochu?

No comparison. Za'darius practically produces more pressure on the QB than Mack and Quinn put together, and the secondary and tertiary options are better to boot.