Adjusted Games Lost 2019

[Deleted member 6794]

Just for the record, for those fans believing the Packers had unprecedented luck with injuries last season and that the team will regress in 2020 because of it you might want to think about that once again.

According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost metric there were 13 more healthy teams in the league last year.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/2019-adjusted-games-lost-part-i

 

[AmishMafia]

It seems like we did better last year than previous.

Much of that is based on attitude towards players. If we loose Rodgers, ZSmith, and Devanti Adam's for a game, it would seem much worse than if we lost 5 mediocre players for 3 games.

 

[bigbubbatd]

It seems like we did better last year than previous.

Much of that is based on attitude towards players. If we loose Rodgers, ZSmith, and Devanti Adam's for a game, it would seem much worse than if we lost 5 mediocre players for 3 games.

We did do better because the year before we were 22nd. But we had key guys miss time. Devante missed a quarter of the season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Much of that is based on attitude towards players. If we loose Rodgers, ZSmith, and Devanti Adam's for a game, it would seem much worse than if we lost 5 mediocre players for 3 games.

True, Football Outsiders accounts for the value of an injured player though.

 

[El Guapo]

Rodgers was upright. Bulaga was mostly healthy and when he wasn't, we had a guy that could play his spot. When Adams went down, our offense was it's most explosive.

There is a lot that goes into success beyond just the stats, but they do bear out.

 

[Dantés]

Good news!

I'm always interested to see how the metrics match the perception when these things come out.

Thinking back on who the main losses would have been.

Linsley missed about 125 snaps and Bulaga about 180 on the offensive line.

Davante Adams probably missed about 225 snaps off of what he would have played in 16 games.

Darnell Savage was probably going to be an every down player, so he missed about 170.

King missed about 220.

I guess they just kind of got nickel and dimed without any huge IR, season long losses. That might explain the difference between perception and what FO discovered.

It is kind of sad to me that in what was supposed to be a healthy season by Kevin King's standards, he was still off the field for roughly four game's worth of snaps.

 

[rmontro]

True, Football Outsiders accounts for the value of an injured player though.

What's the "weight" on Rodgers? The whole rest of the team?

 

[lambeaulambo]

hamburglar trainers were last seen in dallas at the jerry jones rest home for the unrelinquished

 

[Don Barclay]

Good news!

I'm always interested to see how the metrics match the perception

Linsley missed about 125 snaps and Bulaga about 180 on the offensive line.

Davante Adams probably missed about 225 snaps off of what he would have played in 16 games.

Darnell Savage was probably going to be an every down player, so he missed about 170.

King missed about 220.

I guess they just kind of got nickel and dimed without any huge IR, season long losses. That might explain the difference between perception and what FO discovered.

Think they also counted Lane Taylor as a starting OL lost for like 14 games, btw

 

[Dantés]

Think they also counted Lane Taylor as a starting OL lost for like 14 games, btw

Oh... well that would severely skew things. He was certainly not an important loss.

 

[Don Barclay]

Agreed!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Good news!

I'm always interested to see how the metrics match the perception when these things come out.

Thinking back on who the main losses would have been.

Linsley missed about 125 snaps and Bulaga about 180 on the offensive line.

Davante Adams probably missed about 225 snaps off of what he would have played in 16 games.

Darnell Savage was probably going to be an every down player, so he missed about 170.

King missed about 220.

I guess they just kind of got nickel and dimed without any huge IR, season long losses. That might explain the difference between perception and what FO discovered.

It is kind of sad to me that in what was supposed to be a healthy season by Kevin King's standards, he was still off the field for roughly four game's worth of snaps.

Football Outsiders will publish another part taking a look at adjusted games lost per position which will offer more details into which players missing time they included in their list.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Oh... well that would severely skew things. He was certainly not an important loss.

True but a lot of other teams lost Lane Taylor like players to injury as well. Lots of average players get hurt. Lots of backups step up.

 

[Don Barclay]

True but a lot of other teams lost Lane Taylor like players to injury as well. Lots of average players get hurt. Lots of backups step up.

Yes, but there's also a difference between having to activate a planned replacement a little early (a la Jenkins for Taylor) and finding out that a true depth backup can handle a job -- ending up with the former more than the latter is definitely more likely to end in success. Just noting it as a form of injury luck that's a little different than simply quantifying "starters who go down", not arguing the overall takeaway.

 

[Dantés]

True but a lot of other teams lost Lane Taylor like players to injury as well. Lots of average players get hurt. Lots of backups step up.

Lane Taylor was going to cede that spot to Jenkins at some point during the first half of the season regardless. The injury merely accelerated the inevitable.

Not very many teams lose starters and get better because of it.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Here's part two of it with numbers for each unit:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/2019-adjusted-games-lost-part-ii

I don't agree with ESB being assigned an AGL of 16 according to their metric.

 

[Dantés]

If they are rating EQ and Taylor as a combined 30 starter games lost, then I am going to have to go back to my original position-- the Packers had really good injury luck in 2019.