Aaron Jones on this team

[tynimiller]

FTR the amount of guys in Oren Burks draft year's third round that isn't even in the league, or didn't even make it through their rookie contract OR have next to zero stats will really open a lot of eyes to just how many 3rd rounders pan out usually.

13 guys weren't in active games in 2024 from his class...there are others yet that might have been active but barely or didn't see any snaps.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If you tell me that a 3rd round pick has seen multiple contracts and contributed to those teams, that's not a failure IMO EVER.

So I have to ask. IF a Packer draft pick has 1-2 good seasons in Green Bay, signs elsewhere for his next contract and completely flames out, was he a bust?

 

[Sanguine camper]

The third round curse was over awhile ago.

I think it's pretty safe to say Kraft has taken a hatchet to the 3rd round curse.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think it's pretty safe to say Kraft has taken a hatchet to the 3rd round curse.

For 2023 I agree. However, was that an anomaly and the curse is back?
So far neither Lloyd or Hopper have picked up that hatchet and proved it isn't.

 

[tynimiller]

I think it's pretty safe to say Kraft has taken a hatchet to the 3rd round curse.

Rhyan was the first to conquer it without a doubt.

 

[tynimiller]

So I have to ask. IF a Packer draft pick has 1-2 good seasons in Green Bay, signs elsewhere for his next contract and completely flames out, was he a bust?

That’s essentially Deguara and I already conceded I’d consider that a pick that didn’t work out. unless injury factors in.

*edit - I was still thinking just third rounders given convo but you just said a pick…..shoot if a Seventh rounder gives you one good season of contributory football I’d argue is a good pick.

Good is also a relative term so could be different for another.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That’s essentially Deguara and I already conceded I’d consider that a pick that didn’t work out. unless injury factors in.

*edit - I was still thinking just third rounders given convo but you just said a pick…..shoot if a Seventh rounder gives you one good season of contributory football I’d argue is a good pick.

Good is also a relative term so could be different for another.

Obviously, when it comes to evaluating a draft pick, you tend to look more at how a player fares in the NFL during his entire career, correct?

For me, I look more at the return received, for the pick which was invested by said players first team. After he leaves that team, he contributes nothing for said team. Unless of course he's traded for something or triggers a comp pick.

Just 2 different ways of looking at a GM's ability to draft.

 

[tynimiller]

Obviously, when it comes to evaluating a draft pick, you tend to look more at how a player fares in the NFL during his entire career, correct?

For me, I look more at the return received, for the pick which was invested by said players first team. After he leaves that team, he contributes nothing for said team. Unless of course he's traded for something or triggers a comp pick.

Just 2 different ways of looking at a GM's ability to draft.

I look at the prospect into player (more scout minded) which doesn’t stop until their career is over - makes sense with how I deep dive them, not just how it worked out for the team that picked them (which is far more normal for fan view).

 

[Sanguine camper]

For 2023 I agree. However, was that an anomaly and the curse is back?
So far neither Lloyd or Hopper have picked up that hatchet and proved it isn't.

Lloyd and Hopper for sure look like they could be part of the curse. Ryan is no bust and he was a 3rd Rounder. Montravious Adams added to the 3rd round curse mystique. I'm a big proponent of the 2nd round. I'd be happy if Gute traded the first and third round picks to stockpile 2nd round picks but the curse is finally over. Ryhan and then Kraft killed it as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I look at the prospect into player (more scout minded) which doesn’t stop until their career is over - makes sense with how I deep dive them, not just how it worked out for the team that picked them (which is far more normal for fan view).

I can respect that.

I tend to view it from the perspective of an owner of the team *holds up Packer Stock Certificate*

I want my scouts, GM and coaches getting all that they can out of those 7 draft picks that the NFL gives me each year. Drafting a player that doesn't contribute much for my team is bad enough, but having that same player leave and contribute at a higher level for another team, well that's down right bad business.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Montravious Adams added to the 3rd round curse mystique.

I was looking for at what the Gute regime has done. TT had some pretty darn good 3rd round picks in his days.

- James Jones
- Jermichael Finley
- Morgan Burnett
- Richard Rodgers
- Kyler Fackrell

An interesting 3rd round pick was Kyler Fackrell. He had a pretty solid four years in GB, so I would rate him as a decent 3rd round pick for TT, after he left the Packers though...give me your thoughts on his final rating @tynimiller ?

Richard Rodgers was kind of the same. He was a decent player for the Packers, but after his 4 years were up in GB, he didn't do much at all elsewhere.

 

[tynimiller]

I can respect that.

I tend to view it from the perspective of an owner of the team *holds up Packer Stock Certificate*

I want my scouts, GM and coaches getting all that they can out of those 7 draft picks that the NFL gives me each year. Drafting a player that doesn't contribute much for my team is bad enough, but having that same player leave and contribute at a higher level for another team, well that's down right bad business.

As I respect some of you guys who view it entirely different.

Scouts identify prospects they think or feel will succeed at the next level - the main issue is sometimes scheme fit or tendencies within a system just don't match a player - which is why I struggle to judge a pick like Oren Burks solely because we failed to utilize him right. I think both ways are absolutely fair as long as one is consistent with it.

 

[tynimiller]

I was looking for at what the Gute regime has done. TT had some pretty darn good 3rd round picks in his days.

- James Jones
- Jermichael Finley
- Morgan Burnett
- Richard Rodgers
- Kyler Fackrell

An interesting 3rd round pick was Kyler Fackrell. He had a pretty solid four years in GB, so I would rate him as a decent 3rd round pick for TT, after he left the Packers though...give me your thoughts on his final rating @tynimiller ?

Richard Rodgers was kind of the same. He was a decent player for the Packers, but after his 4 years were up in GB, he didn't do much at all elsewhere.

Kyler Fackrell for me is a great comp for how I feel about Oren, but I'd give Oren the nod as the better third rounder if making a list because he proved to be more of a valuable to the league over his career and not just a "one hit wonder" type guy like Fackrell was for 2018 (as special as it was).

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Kyler Fackrell for me is a great comp for how I feel about Oren, but I'd give Oren the nod as the better third rounder if making a list because he proved to be more of a valuable to the league over his career and not just a "one hit wonder" type guy like Fackrell was for 2018 (as special as it was).

Fackrell and Burk though are complete opposites, in regards to the Packers 3rd round investments for me. If every pick for the Packers turned out like Burks, they would be bottom dwellers in the North. If every pick turned out like Fackrell, they might be hoisting more Lombardi's.

 

[AmishMafia]

As I respect some of you guys who view it entirely different.

Scouts identify prospects they think or feel will succeed at the next level - the main issue is sometimes scheme fit or tendencies within a system just don't match a player - which is why I struggle to judge a pick like Oren Burks solely because we failed to utilize him right. I think both ways are absolutely fair as long as one is consistent with it.

A few possibilities.

So did our coaching staff not develop him? Or was he not properly used? Maybe not enough communication between coaches and GM about player traits? Or did Burks decide he needed to dedicate himself more after getting cut by the Packers?

But the bottom line is Burks can play in the NFL at a high level. The reason will always be indeterminable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

As I respect some of you guys who view it entirely different.

Scouts identify prospects they think or feel will succeed at the next level - the main issue is sometimes scheme fit or tendencies within a system just don't match a player - which is why I struggle to judge a pick like Oren Burks solely because we failed to utilize him right. I think both ways are absolutely fair as long as one is consistent with it.

I guess if I am a GM, I am hiring scouts that are looking specifically for players that fit my teams needs. I wouldn't send them out there blind and say; "Irregardless of the system we run, find me the guys that you think have the best potential in the NFL."

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

A few possibilities.

So did our coaching staff not develop him? Or was he not properly used? Maybe not enough communication between coaches and GM about player traits? Or did Burks decide he needed to dedicate himself more after getting cut by the Packers?

But the bottom line is Burks can play in the NFL at a high level. The reason will always be indeterminable.

Kind of off subject, but sort of on. Preston Smith wanted out of GB because he felt the new 4-3 didn't fit his talents. He was excited about going to Pittsburgh. The Steelers cut him loose last week.

 

[tynimiller]

I guess if I am a GM, I am hiring scouts that are looking specifically for players that fit my teams needs. I wouldn't send them out there blind and say; "Irregardless of the system we run, find me the guys that you think have the best potential in the NFL."

Of course - and scouts are constantly trying to play that game. I'd venture to bet there are also times where they think player X is too good of a football player to not adapt...and they don't...until they do elsewhere. But they did identify him right, just wasn't right for their team.

 

[tynimiller]

Fackrell and Burk though are complete opposites, in regards to the Packers 3rd round investments for me. If every pick for the Packers turned out like Burks, they would be bottom dwellers in the North. If every pick turned out like Fackrell, they might be hoisting more Lombardi's.

Eh that's a little strong...Fackrell literally had one solid season...one....and even then I remember someone on youtube breaking down all of his sacks that year and he got the immense benefit of some absolute blown protection calls and if memory serves a tackle slipping and falling twice in inclement weather.

Most everyone knew Fackrell wasn't a world beater or the next starter of the future. Shoot GB knew it so much it was the very next season they went and got Preston, Zadarius and Gary in the draft.

 

[tynimiller]

A few possibilities.

So did our coaching staff not develop him? Or was he not properly used? Maybe not enough communication between coaches and GM about player traits? Or did Burks decide he needed to dedicate himself more after getting cut by the Packers?

But the bottom line is Burks can play in the NFL at a high level. The reason will always be indeterminable.

Spot on

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

player X is too good of a football player to not adapt...and they don't...until they do elsewhere

So did our coaching staff not develop him? Or was he not properly used? Maybe not enough communication between coaches and GM about player traits? Or did Burks decide he needed to dedicate himself more after getting cut by the Packers?

Spot on for both of you. These are the wildcards of each player that an organization brings in.

I would throw injuries and teammates in there as well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Eh that's a little strong...Fackrell literally had one solid season...one....and even then I remember someone on youtube breaking down all of his sacks that year and he got the immense benefit of some absolute blown protection calls and if memory serves a tackle slipping and falling twice in inclement weather.

Most everyone knew Fackrell wasn't a world beater or the next starter of the future. Shoot GB knew it so much it was the very next season they went and got Preston, Zadarius and Gary in the draft.

Good points, I guess I had Fackrell's 3rd season stuck in my head. That said, he did contribute quite a bit more on defense than Burks. However, as you rightfully point out, it wasn't consistent, nor during all 4 years in GB.

 

[tynimiller]

Spot on for both of you. These are the wildcards of each player that an organization brings in.

I would throw injuries and teammates in there as well.

Yup, injury always has to be factored in. Like Eric Stokes...I wouldn't be shocked one bit if he can get right and everything falls back into place and he finds a role for a team as a fairly solid CB2 and plays four or five more years....or it wouldn't surprise me if he never signs anywhere and is done...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yup, injury always has to be factored in. Like Eric Stokes...I wouldn't be shocked one bit if he can get right and everything falls back into place and he finds a role for a team as a fairly solid CB2 and plays four or five more years....or it wouldn't surprise me if he never signs anywhere and is done...

I think self-motivation and coaching is going to play a key role in the remiander of Stokes career. He has the physical attributes to be an average CB in the NFL, but needs to avoid injuries, get good coaching and motivate himself to the next level. I fear that Stokes is another example of a guy that played on a really good team (Georgia) and it inflated his skills/rating in the draft.

 

[tynimiller]

Good points, I guess I had Fackrell's 3rd season stuck in my head. That said, he did contribute quite a bit more on defense than Burks. However, as you rightfully point out, it wasn't consistent, nor during all 4 years in GB.

Yeah 2018 he connected on more sacks but crazy thing is he'd played 447 snaps the year prior and produced 3 sacks or 149 snaps per sack...2018 was 59.3 snaps per sack

For reference as to how crazy that is...JJ Watt had 16 that year on 963 snaps or every 60 snaps...

Or this year:
Trey Hendrickson led the league with 17.5...on 825 snaps or 47.14 snaps per sack
Garrett 14 on 826 or every 59 snaps
Nick Bonitto was third with 13.5 sacks on 708 snaps or every 52.4 snaps

Fackrell's 2018 figures were All Pro nearly efficiency and everyone knew that wasn't the player he was.