One thing to remember, once you factor in resignings, extensions and draft class....many esitmate GB has somewhere around $25M.
Now that is of course also without veteran restructures, cuts or trades.
The discussion of having that alpha WR is one many of us have had and it is truly an interesting one. The issue often times is that with that alpha guy comes an alpha **** to be honest. GB has been crazy lucky that most of our alphas over the years were grade A humans or were not the problem children like some are (Driver, Jennings, Nelson, Adams)....I would want NO PART OF Tyreek Hill - not even answering a phone call from his agent.
The thing I think so many forget is teams year in and year out illustrate that you don't need that alpha dog WR to succeed and see success. Shoot...Kansas City does it often. This year their leading receiver is Kelce and he only produced 823 yards and 3 TDs. Jayden Reed even with all his DROPS and non production of late had 857 yards and 6 TDs. Chiefs second leading receiver was Worthy with 638 yards and 6 TDs...ours Tucker Kraft for 707 yards and 7 TDs.
Production is all that matters. Ravens another favorite to go deep in playoffs with the Chiefs, barely had a 1,000 yard receiver in Zay Flowers putting up 1059 and 4 TDs...their second leader was Bateman with 756 and 9 TDs. Their top two produced 1,815 yards and 13 TDs....our top two produced 1564 yards and 13 TDs.
The production is there. I don't want the organization to feel a conversation with a high level WR needs to happen...not when one of your most productive per game guy in Doubs missed a handful of games and still put up 600 yards and 4 TDs AND if this team just drops HALF the amount of balls everyone's numbers bump a TON.
I see a much bigger need to "force" something if we must at CB or even EDGE
That's a thoughtful reply and thanks for the stats, that really helps a lot. I would never have guessed that Reed put up over 800 yards this year. Kraft doesn't surprise me at 700 plus yards - it's just great to finally have a complete TE on the team. And Doubs certainly is reliable. And they will get Watson back at some point, but he won't be a factor for next season. If he does get healthy early, like 9 or 10 months, he could join the team in maybe October. I just don't expect a lot out of him for the next season.
And Hill is a gifted WR but yeah, brings baggage no team needs.
Thanks also for the realty check on the available cap. I'd much rather see Gluten spend $$$ on fixing the CB group first, ideally following the success he had with safeties. I don't know the big name FAs at corner - the draft looks very good and the Packers should be able to get one of the top guys in round 1.
I actually wonder if Stokes won’t have a market and stays one year very low cost deal while GB also brings in two or three via FA and draft and if that pushes Stokes out so be it.
I stand firmly on the don't resign Myers SOLELY because I RARELY believe in spending top money on a center is all. Myers has played admirably this year for sure.
I stand firmly on the don't resign Myers SOLELY because I RARELY believe in spending top money on a center is all. Myers has played admirably this year for sure.
Oh I wouldn't pay top dollars to Myers. However, as I said before the season began, if his play warranted it, keep him in GB at the right price. Now there is the rub, what will the right price be? Some teams may only look at what he did this season and pay him a lot more than the Packers will. Which seems to generally be how Free agency works for some teams.
I was just commenting on how some Packer fans jumped on the bandwagon a few years ago of "Myers sucks" and never really stopped to look at how he is now playing. Instead, they just keep yelling the same old crap.
Oh I wouldn't pay top dollars to Myers. However, as I said before the season began, if his play warranted it, keep him in GB at the right price. Now there is the rub, what will the right price be? Some teams may only look at what he did this season and pay him a lot more than the Packers will. Which seems to generally be how Free agency works for some teams.
I was just commenting on how some Packer fans jumped on the bandwagon a few years ago of "Myers sucks" and never really stopped to look at how he is now playing. Instead, they just keep yelling the same old crap.
Myers does suck sometimes, a lot less this year but I still don't see a guy that sadly is worth what he's going to get because he will eek out a starting spot in 2025 for someone and they will overpay him IMO.
While he likely won't break the $12M a year mark that the top five centers have (Humphrey/McCoy/Ragnow/Cushenberry/Kelly) but he's going to pull that $8M to $11M a year range I bet...which count me OUT.
Given what the Giants paid Runyan last year, which was a 3 year $30M, I would tend to agree with you. Runyan was another guy that Packer fans loved to hate on.
Anyway, I wouldn't shut the door on resigning Myers like some did months ago, but I wouldn't overpay for him either.
Oh I wouldn't pay top dollars to Myers. However, as I said before the season began, if his play warranted it, keep him in GB at the right price. Now there is the rub, what will the right price be? Some teams may only look at what he did this season and pay him a lot more than the Packers will. Which seems to generally be how Free agency works for some teams.
I was just commenting on how some Packer fans jumped on the bandwagon a few years ago of "Myers sucks" and never really stopped to look at how he is now playing. Instead, they just keep yelling the same old crap.
Given what the Giants paid Runyan last year, which was a 3 year $30M, I would tend to agree with you. Runyan was another guy that Packer fans loved to hate on.
Anyway, I wouldn't shut the door on resigning Myers like some did months ago, but I wouldn't overpay for him either.
Lets face it though, Packer fans tend to have a biased view of their own players. The ones they perceive to be not that great of players, "need to be gone, no matter what". Those that they like, "need to be resigned, no matter what". Of course then there are those that think every current Packer should take a "team discount" for having the privilege of playing in GB.
The NFL Free Agent market is usually grossly overpriced. I like the way Gute seems to handle it. He doesn't wait to pick over the crumbs like TT seemed to do, but he heads for the players he really likes and the Packers need, and if there is a deal to be had, he gets it done. It seems that the desperate teams pay top dollar to average players that had a bit above average seasons, in hopes they improve a lot.
Lets face it though, Packer fans tend to have a biased view of their own players. The ones they perceive to be not that great of players, "need to be gone, no matter what". Those that they like, "need to be resigned, no matter what". Of course then there are those that think every current Packer should take a "team discount" for having the privilege of playing in GB.
The NFL Free Agent market is usually grossly overpriced. I like the way Gute seems to handle it. He doesn't wait to pick over the crumbs like TT seemed to do, but he heads for the players he really likes and the Packers need, and if there is a deal to be had, he gets it done. It seems that the desperate teams pay top dollar to average players that had a bit above average seasons, in hopes they improve a lot.
Yeah free agents almost always get more than they're worth. It's supply and demand. Teams with a lot of cap will pay a premium just because there are other teams with a lot of cap and they want the same player. A lot of money chasing one guy.
When McKinney was signed I thought he got a little too much. Turned out to be a great value in terms of on-field production and leadership for the rookie safeties. Ironically, Jacobs was paid about right, and that probably had more to do with the nature of the RB position.
I like Gluten's approach - go for the top players and don't get burned too much. TT did wait too long and overpaid for middling talent. This is why I think the Packers will let Myers walk.
Pasting from another spot for a few more prospects to share here on the thread:
Cobee Bryant - Kansas / 6'1' 175LB Outside Corner
One CB that is out there which I am a big fan of is Cobee Bryant out of Kansas. Third straight season where the passer rating of QBs targeting him was sub 75.0, third straight season he had 3 or more INTs, third straight season forcing a fumble...and this year he did it on a team that was depleted and overall a tough team to look good on. Cobee Bryant, the 6'1' 175lb (listed...I suspect might play heavier) corner has consistently for three years now looked like one of the best corners against some of the toughest competitions. His arm length is special, his grit is something you cannot teach and I suspect he's going to test VERY VERY well.
What might be the cherry on top of him for me, is the fact even though he doesn't have a ton of weight to him - this kid LOVES to hit, and uses form typically to avoid injury issues many CBs have when they simply throw themselves at someone like a rag. This year he even had 4 TFLs and last year 5 TFLs as a guy that nearly is always outside coverage. He blitzes very well and aggressively on outside corner blitzes too.
An Edge I love and have a Top 50 grade personally on is Mike Green, the 6'4' 248lb pass rusher from Marshall.
This young man is credited with being one of the most versatile playmakers in the entire Sunbelt Conference...and credited by many for the reason his team won the conference this year. His 17 sacks led the entire nation, his 63 pressures second in the entire nation, had a win% rate of 21% on pass rush chances and an overall pass rush PFF grade of 91.0. Green Bay looks to replace and recharge their pass rush with
Now to be honest edge guys are TOUGH to predict. I personally think Mike Green is worthy of a pick at the end of the first, BUT I think in the end a lot of teams go to the power five guys like Sawyer, Tuimoloau, Kennard even before Green hears his name called. Even Gillotte or Ezeiruaku (two guys that this pick could easily be) might hear their names called before his. Green started out at Virginia as a freshman back in 2021, only saw a few snaps (still produced a TFL and a sack) before he transferrred to Marshall where he has created troubles for EVERYONE he faces and not just the lesser schools. Whether it was wrecking the pocket against Ohio State or his nine pressures against Virginia Tech its just incredible what he's done week in and week out. His first step explosion I think might be tough for OL to handle at the senior bowl, and that week could be when those not tapped in fully begin to recognize his name.
Pasting from another spot for a few more prospects to share here on the thread:
Cobee Bryant - Kansas / 6'1' 175LB Outside Corner
One CB that is out there which I am a big fan of is Cobee Bryant out of Kansas. Third straight season where the passer rating of QBs targeting him was sub 75.0, third straight season he had 3 or more INTs, third straight season forcing a fumble...and this year he did it on a team that was depleted and overall a tough team to look good on. Cobee Bryant, the 6'1' 175lb (listed...I suspect might play heavier) corner has consistently for three years now looked like one of the best corners against some of the toughest competitions. His arm length is special, his grit is something you cannot teach and I suspect he's going to test VERY VERY well.
What might be the cherry on top of him for me, is the fact even though he doesn't have a ton of weight to him - this kid LOVES to hit, and uses form typically to avoid injury issues many CBs have when they simply throw themselves at someone like a rag. This year he even had 4 TFLs and last year 5 TFLs as a guy that nearly is always outside coverage. He blitzes very well and aggressively on outside corner blitzes too.
He's certainly got the right height. 175 lbs though? He would have to bring that up to about 195 or risk getting seriously injured. Interesting prospect. Seems like a good year for CBs.
An Edge I love and have a Top 50 grade personally on is Mike Green, the 6'4' 248lb pass rusher from Marshall.
This young man is credited with being one of the most versatile playmakers in the entire Sunbelt Conference...and credited by many for the reason his team won the conference this year. His 17 sacks led the entire nation, his 63 pressures second in the entire nation, had a win% rate of 21% on pass rush chances and an overall pass rush PFF grade of 91.0. Green Bay looks to replace and recharge their pass rush with
Now to be honest edge guys are TOUGH to predict. I personally think Mike Green is worthy of a pick at the end of the first, BUT I think in the end a lot of teams go to the power five guys like Sawyer, Tuimoloau, Kennard even before Green hears his name called. Even Gillotte or Ezeiruaku (two guys that this pick could easily be) might hear their names called before his. Green started out at Virginia as a freshman back in 2021, only saw a few snaps (still produced a TFL and a sack) before he transferrred to Marshall where he has created troubles for EVERYONE he faces and not just the lesser schools. Whether it was wrecking the pocket against Ohio State or his nine pressures against Virginia Tech its just incredible what he's done week in and week out. His first step explosion I think might be tough for OL to handle at the senior bowl, and that week could be when those not tapped in fully begin to recognize his name.
This is admittedly a more "theoretical" discussion, but I guess for me it is not so much about having a "#1" when it comes strictly to numbers but more about having a go-to guy, if that makes sense.
For instance, as above, we see this year Kelce has similar numbers to Reed. But what I mean is like...when all the chips are down and you need a guy to make ONE key play for you, would you trust Kelce or Reed more to make that play? (Maybe Kelce is not the best example *this year* as he's seemingly towards the tail-end of his career, but hopefully you get what I mean)
I still really like a lot of our guys we've got. But I guess my feeling is that we just don't really have that "take over the game" type of guy yet, you know what I mean - like we're kinda short on "game-changing" talent, if you will. I love Jacobs and he's been great (and the RB position in general does seem to be gaining back more "value" recently) but I think the current state of the game still really lends towards wanting to have that kind of option in the passing game. And I am not totally convinced at this point that anyone has really shown the qualities you would want to be that "Alpha Dog" at this point.
Maybe Doubs? I don't know. I love the guy, but he feels like a James Jones type of guy to me - one who can go off and explode any given week, but also isn't going to be your week-in, week-out go-to guy
But, all that to say, this type of guy usually comes at a steep price. When I look at the top 5 passing offenses in the league (yardage) they all have a "go-to guy" and 4/5 of them spent a 1st to get that guy. The outlier is the Lions...who have St. Brown as their lead receiver with ~1,200 yards but he is followed right behind by Jameson Williams (1,000 yards), who of course was also a 1st round pick. Now that's not to say you HAVE to spend a 1st to get that "True #1," "alpha dog," "go-to guy," whatever you want to call it, but at the end of the day your odds of "hitting" on that player do increase generally with that kind of expenditure.
All that to say, I am not suggesting by any means we spend our 1st on a WR this year. That's far from our biggest need, and I'm not even sure there will be a player available when we'll be picking who would represent a good value and/or projects to be that type of ready-made go-to player. I guess my point is just that...if we really do believe we are missing that type of player, I don't think spending a mid-round pick is the best way to address that "problem" - more than likely you will end up with another guy like we already have plenty of: a perfectly suitable NFL player, a great depth player, even a high-level starter, but probably not a "true #1". Yes, there are exceptions, but it's less and less likely the further out you get. If we really feel that we need a true #1 go-to target, IMO it is going to require some significant investment, whether that comes by way of high draft capital or FA spending. Again I don't think this is something that makes much sense to prioritize in this coming draft, but if we feel it is a pressing issue I don't think it is likely to be solved by trying to invest with limited expense.
He's certainly got the right height. 175 lbs though? He would have to bring that up to about 195 or risk getting seriously injured. Interesting prospect. Seems like a good year for CBs.
Eh his weight like I said doesn't worry me with his build and frame I suspect he plays more closer to 185 than 175 truly...for testing I'm sure his team keeps him lean though. Nate Wiggins played quite solid this year and is barely 180 (was 173 for college testing)...Lassiter is another rookie who was great for Houston as a rookie and was listed at just 180 this year.
To be fair his weight is likely the only flag I see...if he played like he does but was 188 or 190, he'd be a first rounder for me. I still like I said see a 180-185 pound guy likely for game days especially maybe higher by his second year.
Incredibly different humans God made between those two, and with that both are going to win reps differently. Green has massive bend and explosion - doesn't come close to the hand strength that LVN has or arm strength though.
A guy I really like and has a really good chance of being there late in the 1st round is DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan. I wouldn't mind getting him and the DT next to him, Mason Graham, but Graham will go well before the Packers are even close to being on the clock. Watch some film on Grant, the guy is huge (6'3", 340#) but unbelievably quick for a man of his size.
A guy I really like and has a really good chance of being there late in the 1st round is DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan. I wouldn't mind getting him and the DT next to him, Mason Graham, but Graham will go well before the Packers are even close to being on the clock. Watch some film on Grant, the guy is huge (6'3", 340#) but unbelievably quick for a man of his size.
Incredibly different humans God made between those two, and with that both are going to win reps differently. Green has massive bend and explosion - doesn't come close to the hand strength that LVN has or arm strength though.
Yeah after two years of watching LVN get easily moved around the QB by tackles, I'd take the guy who can get to the QB and at least cause pressure. In too many games and too many plays, LVN has been invisible.
Generally speaking the Rookie Draft class accounts for about +-40% of the Pool % due to expiring draft class falling off. Even at 50% it’s about ~<=$5M net when picking 20th (actually sluggish less if we advance in Postseason).
$64.4 is our current estimate. Peeling the above draft class that just accounted for and banking and additional $7.5M reserves for in season emergencies (+ adding back in your $25M estimate) which “incumbents” are you thinking will eat up that other $31.9Mil 2025 Cap that just disappeared in resigns or extensions?
Btw. We can part with J’aire in a post June and add $17.5m to start the math at $81.9Mil if desired. This is what I’d prefer. Just move on and apply it to a young Stud CB in FA.
He’s a nice kid I wish him the very best.
Generally speaking the Rookie Draft class accounts for about +-40% of the Pool % due to expiring draft class falling off. Even at 50% it’s about ~<=$5M net when picking 20th (actually sluggish less if we advance in Postseason).
$64.4 is our current estimate. Peeling the above draft class that just accounted for and banking and additional $7.5M reserves for in season emergencies (+ adding back in your $25M estimate) which “incumbents” are you thinking will eat up that other $31.9Mil 2025 Cap that just disappeared in resigns or extensions?
Btw. We can part with J’aire in a post June and add $17.5m to start the math at $81.9Mil if desired. This is what I’d prefer. Just move on and apply it to a young Stud CB in FA.
He’s a nice kid I wish him the very best.
I do think it's time to move on from JA. He does seem like a good, if goofy, person and he certainly is the best corner in GB in a long time. But he costs too much considering his unavailability. I'd like to see Gluten grab one of the top CBs in FA (if there are any) and as you note, take one of the v good corners in the draft. GB will pick no earlier than 24 I think. At any rate, this looks like a good class for CBs.
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