Hopper's athletic profile is underwhelming. A 4.68 40 speed is not going to keep up with near all RB's and a lot of TE's. Poor agility isn't impressive. Hard to swallow the fact that at this point, a 3rd round pick was spent on a guy who projects out to maybe a special teams player. With Walker, Cooper, Wilson and McDuffie ahead of him on the depth chart, Hopper may make the 53 and not suit up or potentially even be sent to the practice squad.
I really try to resist the temptation to call a pick a reach, because I don't know a fraction about these players as the real pros do. But sometimes, i can't help wondering... what the heck??? And this is that pick.
A couple of weeks ago, I did an (overly) detailed breakdown of Gute's drafting tendencies, and I was really struck by his 3rd Round patterns.
Briefly, he follows a very disciplined system with the first 2 rounds, with some very consistent patterns from which he rarely deviates - among them being he focuses on multi-year starters or heavy rotational contributors from the program of a major college football power (especially SEC, Big 10, or PAC 12), with an RAS either well above or very close to 9. And usually widely regarded as Day One or Early Day Two picks.
Average RAS in Round 1 is 9.28, average RAS in Round 2 is 9.07. He rarely departs from that pattern in Rounds 1 and 2. Jordan Love and Darnell Savage were the only two significant exceptions, and dragged the average 1st Round RAS down below 9.5.
Historically, Round 3 is the first round where he majorly deviates from that pattern - this is where he usually starts to feel comfortable looking at smaller college football programs, and not so much at RAS or multiple years as a starter. RAS is the most notable departure - average RAS drops from 9.28 in Round One and 9.07 in Round Two, to barely over 7 (which is artificially elevated by Tucker Kraft's highly abberant 9.68), with many of the 3rd Rounders scoring in the low 5's. 3rd Round is the first spot where he (sometimes) goes way out on a limb and takes a shot on someone nobody else saw coming.
If you look at the 3rd Round picks where Gutekunst bombed, the substantial majority are the ones where he deviated from his draft philosophy of Rounds One and Two. Almost all of them, in fact. And this seems to be the key factor in his so-called "3rd Round Curse".
Whereas, the 3rd Round picks that work out are almost without exception the picks that adhere to the same criteria he rigidly adheres to in the first two rounds - major football powerhouses, stellar RAS scores, right age range and level of demonstrated experience.
With his two 3rd Rounders this year, Marshawn Lloyd was a fastball right in the heart of the strike zone. Dead center on track with his historically successful pattern for the first 2 rounds; he fit every criteria for a player Gute would pick in Round 1 or Round 2, and the same pattern as the one 3rd Rounder he picked who was a solid success - Tucker Kraft.
The Hopper pick was largely in the same pattern as the 3rd Rounders who pancaked, including an RAS of 7.38. Almost 2 points below the 1st and 2nd Round average of 9.35, and a consensus projection roughly 2 rounds later.
So by this metric, Hopper
was a reach when viewed though the filter of how Gute usually drafts in the first two days. He fits the profile of 3rd-rounders who fail, but Lloyd perfectly fits the profile of all early round players who not only succeed but excell.
How it turns out, too soon to tell. Will it be one of his very rare and very recent successful 3rd Rounds, or will it be another 3rd Round that makes us all wish he would just immediately trade every 3rd Round pick he gets his hands on for a 4th Rounder? Or, a mix of both?
