2024 3rd round #88 MarShawn Lloyd RB

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Maybe marginal return on Burks, but not good, at least for me.

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We should've drafted Cunningham his teammate at Vandy.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Burks is the only one I’d argue for being a good prospect and pick relatively for expected return of a third.

I'd agree with that if he had been taken in rounds 5-7. At those spots, the pick would roughly equate to value. But I expect more from a 3rd rounder than what Burks produced. And that's just a gut feel. I don't have his career stats.

 

[tynimiller]

I have for a long time now come to the realization at least for me, and prospect expectations - Anything after about the first 50, except with OL it very rapidly because a guessing game and people have unrealistic expectations of many prospects.

 

[Half Empty]

I'd agree with that if he had been taken in rounds 5-7. At those spots, the pick would roughly equate to value. But I expect more from a 3rd rounder than what Burks produced. And that's just a gut feel. I don't have his career stats.

Burks Here you go.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Burks Here you go.

I'd even go as far to say, as a Packer....Here you go....

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[Heyjoe4]

I have for a long time now come to the realization at least for me, and prospect expectations - Anything after about the first 50, except with OL it very rapidly because a guessing game and people have unrealistic expectations of many prospects.

I think you're right. And add to that - no two drafts are even close to being alike. So evaluating whether, say, a 3rd round pick was worthy of being picked in the 3rd round - any answer would be too subjective to be useful.

As for the OL - yeah it does seem like some real gems can be had in just about any round. Keeping it close to home - Rasheed Walker was 7th round, and Bahktiari was, I believe, 4th round. And those aren't unique.

 

[OldSchool101]

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98​	Richard Rodgers​

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94​	Ty Montgomery​

88 Kyler Fackrell

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​

​

​

93​	Montravius Adams​

​

88​	Oren Burks​

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75​	Jace Sternberger​

​

94​	Josiah Deguara​

​

85​	Amari Rodgers​

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92​	Sean Rhyan​

​

78​	Tucker Kraft​

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91​	Ty'Ron Hopper​

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88​	MarShawn Lloyd​

This is our last 10 Drafts in Round 3
I put them in several categories.
-Guys that have proved to be worthy of their draft placement or close
-Guys that contributed but were slightly below perceived value
-Guys that did not come close to their 3rd Round Expectations IN GB
-Guys too new to tell either way

Really not as bad as we’ve made it out to be imo. No we didn’t hit on a Probowl caliber player , I get it.
Yet we have roughly 1/3 1/3 1/3
Players who lived up
Players who contributed but slightly below
Players who would otherwise be considered busts.

That list to me is not awful. It’s actually probably normal. Maybe a C-?? What do you guys think??
I’m merely guessing compared to the league mean. It helps (for myself anyway) to just lay it out like this. My opinion is I might be complaining a little too much. If we get 1 of the 2 of Hopper or Lloyd to go bold? I’d say we’re league average considering mostly later Rd3

 

[tynimiller]

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Really not as bad as we’ve made it out to be imo. No we didn’t hit on a Probowl caliber player , I get it.

The "curse" has been blown out of scale due to the unrealistic expectations of many fans.

I will say the third round is tricky...because you might still be in that realm of having a college prospect that is HIGHLY productive, but unless your scouting department is savvy and has picked up on items that are markers for failure you think you're getting something far more special than you really are.

 

[OldSchool101]

The "curse" has been blown out of scale due to the unrealistic expectations of many fans.

I will say the third round is tricky...because you might still be in that realm of having a college prospect that is HIGHLY productive, but unless your scouting department is savvy and has picked up on items that are markers for failure you think you're getting something far more special than you really are.

Yeah. I agree. I just think at #88 or #95 or whatnot that’s a coin flip. If you get 5 out of 10 across 10 drafts probably ok. The only thing I would say is by the time we’ve drafted double digit numbers of 3rd Rounders over a Decade of sample? Probably should have 1 playing way above expectations, which we really didn’t have either. This my C C- grade

If the bulk of our drafts were at #65 or #72 or #77 then ok.. we probably should get more in that 60% success rate. #95 overall might as well be an early Day 3 prospect. It’s pretty picked over edging near 100 overall. If we still are able to get 1 good Starter from Hopper or Lloyd by year 2?

I think we’re fine. I’ve personally been a little disappointed in Rhyan. I thought he would be a mainstay starter by now.Yet Fackrell turned out to be pretty good. I thought Monty played pretty good as that utility hybrid player he was a good athlete in all phases, then went a little rogue out of nowhere. Deguara showed signs and then fizzled. Stern never took off. Burks was banged up initially and then I thought playing out of his natural Safety position where he excelled. They were trying to turn him into a project. Amari Rodgers was a total wasted pick. Lol

Our 2nd Round seems to be more magic and our 4th-5th rounds have been above average. It all buffs out

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

​

98​	Richard Rodgers​

​

94​	Ty Montgomery​

88 Kyler Fackrell

​

​

​

​

93​	Montravius Adams​

​

88​	Oren Burks​

​

75​	Jace Sternberger​

​

94​	Josiah Deguara​

​

85​	Amari Rodgers​

​

92​	Sean Rhyan​

​

78​	Tucker Kraft​

​

91​	Ty'Ron Hopper​

​

88​	MarShawn Lloyd​

This is our last 10 Drafts in Round 3
I put them in several categories.
-Guys that have proved to be worthy of their draft placement or close
-Guys that contributed but were slightly below perceived value
-Guys that did not come close to their 3rd Round Expectations IN GB
-Guys too new to tell either way

Really not as bad as we’ve made it out to be imo. No we didn’t hit on a Probowl caliber player , I get it.
Yet we have roughly 1/3 1/3 1/3
Players who lived up
Players who contributed but slightly below
Players who would otherwise be considered busts.

That list to me is not awful. It’s actually probably normal. Maybe a C-?? What do you guys think??
I’m merely guessing compared to the league mean. It helps (for myself anyway) to just lay it out like this. My opinion is I might be complaining a little too much. If we get 1 of the 2 of Hopper or Lloyd to go bold? I’d say we’re league average considering mostly later Rd3

The "3rd round curse" that I tend to refer to, is that of Gute. I don't include TT's draft picks in that "curse".

I guess I would disagree with your classification of DeGuara. We got more out an UDFA TE, Robert Tonyan. A 3rd round TE should have a decent (not great) career or at least 4 seasons, with his team. A guy like Richard Rodgers would be what I would call an expected 3rd round TE.

Hopefully Rhyan, Kraft, Hopper and Lloyd break the curse. However, I still say that the 4 guys before them, that Gute used 3rd round picks on, ended up being bad investments for the Packers, with maybe Burks being closer to an almost average return on investment.

 

[Heyjoe4]

​

98​	Richard Rodgers​

​

94​	Ty Montgomery​

88 Kyler Fackrell

​

​

​

​

93​	Montravius Adams​

​

88​	Oren Burks​

​

75​	Jace Sternberger​

​

94​	Josiah Deguara​

​

85​	Amari Rodgers​

​

92​	Sean Rhyan​

​

78​	Tucker Kraft​

​

91​	Ty'Ron Hopper​

​

88​	MarShawn Lloyd​

This is our last 10 Drafts in Round 3
I put them in several categories.
-Guys that have proved to be worthy of their draft placement or close
-Guys that contributed but were slightly below perceived value
-Guys that did not come close to their 3rd Round Expectations IN GB
-Guys too new to tell either way

Really not as bad as we’ve made it out to be imo. No we didn’t hit on a Probowl caliber player , I get it.
Yet we have roughly 1/3 1/3 1/3
Players who lived up
Players who contributed but slightly below
Players who would otherwise be considered busts.

That list to me is not awful. It’s actually probably normal. Maybe a C-?? What do you guys think??
I’m merely guessing compared to the league mean. It helps (for myself anyway) to just lay it out like this. My opinion is I might be complaining a little too much. If we get 1 of the 2 of Hopper or Lloyd to go bold? I’d say we’re league average considering mostly later Rd3

Thanks for putting it together. Seeing it in one place IMO shows the futility of the round for the Packers. Kraft is the #1 TE now, I think, so he's certainly been a value. Ty Montgomery gives me a headache. Other than the Hail Mary reception in Detroit, Richard Rodgers reminds me of the words "catch and fall". That's all I got. I hope Kraft, Hopper and Lloyd can turn this around a bit.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The "curse" has been blown out of scale due to the unrealistic expectations of many fans.

I will say the third round is tricky...because you might still be in that realm of having a college prospect that is HIGHLY productive, but unless your scouting department is savvy and has picked up on items that are markers for failure you think you're getting something far more special than you really are.

Yeah "curse" is too strong a word to use. "Futility" might be better. I certainly can't complain with how the GMs have drafted over the years. And the draft should be taken as a whole, rather than one round.

And you pointed out earlier that after #50, it's a bit of a crap shoot anyway.