2024 3rd round #88 MarShawn Lloyd RB

[tynimiller]

Dillon is not a lock to make this team. Barring injury, Lloyd is.

Strongly disagree. We don't have a single RB that knows and understands the system here other than him. He arguably is our best pass blocking RB on our roster as well. He also is the leading candidate to be more of a moving HBack TE type as well, which I was petitioning for last year and the staff in this off season have confirmed this is quite possibly the direction they plan on using him.

I am by no means saying I expect Dillon to be our second leading running back in production, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he gets the second most snaps, especially early in the season even if those are more of a Deguara/ juszczyk type role.

 

[milani]

The legal system did it's job in both trials. It found him guilty in the civil trial and not-guilty in the criminal. What failed was the prosecutors in the criminal trial. The system did its job.

I knew a lot of lawyers back then and remember hearing A LOT of harsh criticism, harsher than I'd ever heard, about the prosecution team. It was 30yrs ago so I don't remember most of the comments. The one that still comes to mind was that a prosecutor never presents evidence unless they are sure that it conclusively works in their favor. They had Simpson put on the gloves, not knowing 100% that they were going to fit. Lots of other missteps lead to Simpson getting the not-guilty.

I believe we all have learned a lot in the last 10 years that we did not know then although it really is nothing new. We learned how corruption can taint much of the legal system all the way to judges and juries and obviously by the geographic location of a trial. Even a guilty verdict can render a slap on the wrist or a lengthy penalty for the very same offense. I also believe that although we are said to have the " fairest " most unbiased and neutral system in the universe it only matters in as much as those who implement it. The most righteous construction of liberty will fail if those who operate it are corrupt. I think our public at large is quite aware of this but there are still millions whose eyes are being opened for the first time. And I am one of them.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Strongly disagree. We don't have a single RB that knows and understands the system here other than him. He arguably is our best pass blocking RB on our roster as well. He also is the leading candidate to be more of a moving HBack TE type as well, which I was petitioning for last year and the staff in this off season have confirmed this is quite possibly the direction they plan on using him.

I am by no means saying I expect Dillon to be our second leading running back in production, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he gets the second most snaps, especially early in the season even if those are more of a Deguara/ juszczyk type role.

I believe he is in a fight with a roster spot with Emanuel Wilson.

There is evidence to support that:

Recent comments by Packers offensive coordinator are bad news for AJ Dillon​

Stenavich recently met with the media and said that the Packers want to get their new third-round pick involved "as much as possible."

These comments by Stenavich shouldn't be surprising in the least. You don't spend a top-100 pick on the running back position to have the guy sit around and wait to play. You spend a top-100 pick on the running back position to put that guy out on the field.

The issue for former second-round pick Dillon is very simple -- not only did the Packers invest a top-100 pick in Lloyd, but they've got big-money free agent Josh Jacobs atop the depth chart. Jacobs should be expected to lead this Packers team in total touches in 2024, and with how many options the Packers have in the passing game, touches might be too tough to come by for Dillon.

The Packers have a pretty easy way out of the deal they signed with Dillon this offseason. He counts less than $1.3 million against the salary cap and there is no dead money whether he's released or traded. Even though Stenavich said that Dillon brings a level of physicality that Lloyd doesn't at this point, the Packers' plans have been made clear.

And it doesn't look like Dillon will be part of them.


Complete text: https://lombardiave.com/posts/packers-coach-latest-comments-spell-doom-high-draft-pick-01hx7jgzpz3n

 

[tynimiller]

I believe he is in a fight with a roster spot with Emanuel Wilson.

There is evidence to support that:

Recent comments by Packers offensive coordinator are bad news for AJ Dillon​

Stenavich recently met with the media and said that the Packers want to get their new third-round pick involved "as much as possible."

These comments by Stenavich shouldn't be surprising in the least. You don't spend a top-100 pick on the running back position to have the guy sit around and wait to play. You spend a top-100 pick on the running back position to put that guy out on the field.

The issue for former second-round pick Dillon is very simple -- not only did the Packers invest a top-100 pick in Lloyd, but they've got big-money free agent Josh Jacobs atop the depth chart. Jacobs should be expected to lead this Packers team in total touches in 2024, and with how many options the Packers have in the passing game, touches might be too tough to come by for Dillon.

The Packers have a pretty easy way out of the deal they signed with Dillon this offseason. He counts less than $1.3 million against the salary cap and there is no dead money whether he's released or traded. Even though Stenavich said that Dillon brings a level of physicality that Lloyd doesn't at this point, the Packers' plans have been made clear.

And it doesn't look like Dillon will be part of them.


Complete text: https://lombardiave.com/posts/packers-coach-latest-comments-spell-doom-high-draft-pick-01hx7jgzpz3n

None of that counters any thought I shared...no one is expected Dillon to be asked to be the second most productive back as Lloyd will progress his way into the offense and likely be the clear #2 at some point....also investing in Jacobs didn't change anything either - Jones was the clear #1.

Dillon signed for RB3 or FB1 type money. If he is that moving piece similar to Deguara which coaches have hinted at, I honestly predict we keep four "RBs" on the 53 but he is going to be that HBack type TE/FB role and also a RB in reserve.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

None of that counters any thought I shared...no one is expected Dillon to be asked to be the second most productive back as Lloyd will progress his way into the offense and likely be the clear #2 at some point....also investing in Jacobs didn't change anything either - Jones was the clear #1.

Dillon signed for RB3 or FB1 type money. If he is that moving piece similar to Deguara which coaches have hinted at, I honestly predict we keep four "RBs" on the 53 but he is going to be that HBack type TE/FB role and also a RB in reserve.

Or he could be cut.

I'm not rooting for that - I like him as a person - but it's the reality.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Given that the Packers would save almost $2.5M by cutting Dillon, I honestly don't think he is an absolute lock to make the 53. That said, the only way he doesn't make the 53 is if he is traded, injured or both Lloyd and another RB make him dispensable.

On another note, I am really liking what I see and hear from Lloyd. Humble, hungry and appreciative.

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[Half Empty]

Given that the Packers would save almost $2.5M by cutting Dillon,

Because of that weird contract, the cap hit is $1,292,500

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Because of that weird contract, the cap hit is $1,292,500

Right, that is the 2024 cap hit under the veterans contract he is under, IF he is on the 53 man roster. However, the only guaranteed money is the $167.5K signing bonus. So if the Packers cut him, they save on 2 things. First, the additional $1.125M that would otherwise count against the 2024 Cap. Second, the additional $2.407M of his contract that they would owe him, if he is on the roster.

So yes, the Packers could save cap money as well as organization money, by cutting AJ before the final 53. I'm not saying that they will or they won't, but I am saying is that I can see a situation where it's plausible and I think why they structure his deal the way that they did. I would say the same scenario could happen to Josh Myers, cutting/trading him could possibly be on the table.

 

[tynimiller]

That contract structure means if you cut him before the 53, you don't "save anywhere close to 2.5M. I wrote my buddy about this as it is a unique item, Packers actually will pay him more than what his hit will ever be - so while they might "save more" they truly don't save any additional because of the way it is constructed on the cap.

 

[tynimiller]

I also have decent intel that if Dillon shows out that he can be more of a flex type piece, he has a strong desire to sign a multi-year team friendly deal. He has never hidden the fact he loves GB and wants to be here long term. Now what exactly does that look like - who knows. But if he is serviceable to solid as a back up this year and will be that veteran RB3/FB1 type guy lock him in at like four years $6M with say $4M guaranteed. Low, consistent and you have an above average guy....

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That contract structure means if you cut him before the 53, you don't "save anywhere close to 2.5M. I wrote my buddy about this as it is a unique item, Packers actually will pay him more than what his hit will ever be - so while they might "save more" they truly don't save any additional because of the way it is constructed on the cap.

Then OTC (link below) has it wrong. Remember, I am talking about 2 different things. "Cap hit" and "money paid out", they are 2 different things. I actually got the "savings" incorrect, it would be $2.575M that the Packers would save by him not being on the roster, which is listed as his base salary.

If Dillon was only guaranteed $167,500 (dead cap), but will be paid $2,742,500 at the end of the season or whenever the contract calls for, I don't see where your buddy is coming up with different numbers. Unless, OTC and the media got his "guaranteed" money wrong.

A.J. Dillon Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

A.J. Dillon contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

 

[tynimiller]

Then OTC (link below) has it wrong. Remember, I am talking about 2 different things. "Cap hit" and "money paid out", they are 2 different things. I actually got the "savings" incorrect, it would be $2.575M that the Packers would save by him not being on the roster, which is listed as his base salary.

If Dillon was only guaranteed $167,500 (dead cap), but will be paid $2,742,500 at the end of the season or whenever the contract calls for, I don't see where your buddy is coming up with different numbers. Unless, OTC and the media got his "guaranteed" money wrong.

A.J. Dillon Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

A.J. Dillon contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

It is the difference in actual cap savings. Given the unique contract GB will actually pay him more than the cap hit. Meaning yes, GB the organization will save up to that estimated 2.5M number however that isn't 2.5M that can slide to an additional player as they only are against the cap for a far less number and that is money they have to spend on players.

It is partially semantics, but also partly the crazy atypical situation that has us having to use "savings" in two senses for Dillon.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I believe he is in a fight with a roster spot with Emanuel Wilson.

There is evidence to support that:

Recent comments by Packers offensive coordinator are bad news for AJ Dillon​

Stenavich recently met with the media and said that the Packers want to get their new third-round pick involved "as much as possible."

These comments by Stenavich shouldn't be surprising in the least. You don't spend a top-100 pick on the running back position to have the guy sit around and wait to play. You spend a top-100 pick on the running back position to put that guy out on the field.

The issue for former second-round pick Dillon is very simple -- not only did the Packers invest a top-100 pick in Lloyd, but they've got big-money free agent Josh Jacobs atop the depth chart. Jacobs should be expected to lead this Packers team in total touches in 2024, and with how many options the Packers have in the passing game, touches might be too tough to come by for Dillon.

The Packers have a pretty easy way out of the deal they signed with Dillon this offseason. He counts less than $1.3 million against the salary cap and there is no dead money whether he's released or traded. Even though Stenavich said that Dillon brings a level of physicality that Lloyd doesn't at this point, the Packers' plans have been made clear.

And it doesn't look like Dillon will be part of them.


Complete text: https://lombardiave.com/posts/packers-coach-latest-comments-spell-doom-high-draft-pick-01hx7jgzpz3n

Dillon fills a role that Wilson can't. He's our 3rd/4th and short guy. Wilson doesn't bring anything to the table that Jacobs and Lloyd don't. Sorry, Wilson is the odd man out if they only keep 3. That said, I think they keep all four, unless someone else beats out Wilson.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Or he could be cut.

I'm not rooting for that - I like him as a person - but it's the reality.

Doubtful.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Dillon fills a role that Wilson can't. He's our 3rd/4th and short guy. Wilson doesn't bring anything to the table that Jacobs and Lloyd don't. Sorry, Wilson is the odd man out if they only keep 3. That said, I think they keep all four, unless someone else beats out Wilson.

Not necessarily...Green Bay is not the youngest team in the NFL by accident. They love youth, and they love rookie contracts. They likely also want the 3rd RB to contribute on special teams.

I believe Dillon has to be clearly superior to Wilson to get that job. If they're even, Dillon is likely the odd man out.

Time will tell.

 

[Poppa San]

Not necessarily...Green Bay is not the youngest team in the NFL by accident. They love youth, and they love rookie contracts. They likely also want the 3rd RB to contribute on special teams.

I believe Dillon has to be clearly superior to Wilson to get that job. If they're even, Dillon is likely the odd man out.

Time will tell.

Dillon doesn't have to be superior to Wilson, just Pearson and the 4th TE, whoever that turns out to be.

 

[Krabs]

Then OTC (link below) has it wrong. Remember, I am talking about 2 different things. "Cap hit" and "money paid out", they are 2 different things. I actually got the "savings" incorrect, it would be $2.575M that the Packers would save by him not being on the roster, which is listed as his base salary.

If Dillon was only guaranteed $167,500 (dead cap), but will be paid $2,742,500 at the end of the season or whenever the contract calls for, I don't see where your buddy is coming up with different numbers. Unless, OTC and the media got his "guaranteed" money wrong.

A.J. Dillon Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

A.J. Dillon contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

The talk of Dillon's cap hit is kind of a mute point. $2.7 million against the cap is nothing. We pay more in dead money than that. That's one of the big reasons that the Packers brought him back. It is a cheap contract. I think the bigger question would be the roster spot in general. Do they want to use up a spot for Dillon on the roster? I'd wager yes. Generally teams will carry three RB's. I do think Lloyd will take carries away from Dillon and don't expect much out of him. RB's get hurt. Jacobs was hurt last year and Jones as well. While Dillon didn't step up the way we wanted him too there is something to be said about knowing the system and being an experienced veteran. I'm definitely excited about this Lloyd pick and not worried at all about Dillon's cap hit.

 

[Krabs]

The talk of Dillon's cap hit is kind of a mute point. $2.7 million against the cap is nothing. We pay more in dead money than that. That's one of the big reasons that the Packers brought him back. It is a cheap contract. I think the bigger question would be the roster spot in general. Do they want to use up a spot for Dillon on the roster? I'd wager yes. Generally teams will carry three RB's. I do think Lloyd will take carries away from Dillon and don't expect much out of him. RB's get hurt. Jacobs was hurt last year and Jones as well. While Dillon didn't step up the way we wanted him too there is something to be said about knowing the system and being an experienced veteran. I'm definitely excited about this Lloyd pick and not worried at all about Dillon's cap hit.

I forgot, I was going to mention Wilson. He basically was a jersey filler and barely got on the field even after injuries. My guess is he is the odd man out. He got 14 carries in 7 games played and rushed for 85 yards. To me, that is a wasted roster spot. Jacobs, Lloyd and Dillon are a decent trio of backs. I think they can even find better than Wilson out on the free agent market.

 

[tynimiller]

I personally bet that Dillon has less a chance of getting cut than Myers does or McDuffie...or Slaton. Cutting any would be asininely dumb IMO from a roster structure and what you have in any of them relative to their contracts and experience.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I forgot, I was going to mention Wilson. He basically was a jersey filler and barely got on the field even after injuries. My guess is he is the odd man out. He got 14 carries in 7 games played and rushed for 85 yards. To me, that is a wasted roster spot. Jacobs, Lloyd and Dillon are a decent trio of backs. I think they can even find better than Wilson out on the free agent market.

Agree on Wilson. I haven't seen anything special from him, but I am always open to him looking like the 2nd coming of Walter Payton this season.

As I said in a few posts, no doubt that if the season started today, the 3 backs that would be suiting up for the Packers on Sunday would be Jacobs, Dillon and Lloyd. That said, there are almost 4 months between now and Week 1 and anything can and probably will happen to the "predicted" roster during that time. The only 2 locks to make the 53 at RB are Jacobs and Lloyd.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I personally bet that Dillon has less a chance of getting cut than Myers does or McDuffie...or Slaton. Cutting any would be asininely dumb IMO from a roster structure and what you have in any of them relative to their contracts and experience.

If the season started today, I fully agree with you. However, there are a lot of guys on the roster that probably don't feel 100% safe, you have named 4 of them. Gute has done a good job this offseason to create a lot of roster competition and I even expect him to make a few more moves before long, to jack up that competition. Young players improve with reps, but they also improve with healthy competition.

 

[tynimiller]

The talk of Dillon is here so apologies for going away from Lloyd for a second but folks know I was a massive critic of Dillon last year - from the jump I felt his burst was missing and his tenacity for the first time in his short career. But folks acting like he is a castaway that Wilson will push right off the roster is laughable IMO.

Let's visit Dillon for a second, in his immediate draft class he was selected 6th in the group. Of the five ahead of him only Antonio Gibson has more yards than him (2,643 vs 2428). He ranks 4th in total yards in the group, 6th in yards per games registered, his 4.07 yards per attempt is 6th amongst RBs with over 250 attempts.

Even if you include the 2019 class, AJ is still the 10th most productive running back in yards in all the classes since 2019...and only one running back drafted after him has more yards - which is Najee Harris who has been his teams feature back far more than Dillon.

Picture of spreadsheet I have running. Draft classes are color coded from 2019 through 2023

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Dillon no doubt is at the point in his career where I think he's realizing he isn't a feature type back in the league...BUT he easily is a RB2 with RB1 relief ability. To think otherwise is simply ignoring all which he has done up to this point and that doesn't even factor in anything when it comes to his knowledge of the offense and compare his pass blocking abilities vs all these other backs. Dillon has quietly become a VERY solid blocker in the backfield which is even MORE reason why it seems he is heading towards that FB/Hback TE role which has been hinted at.

Lloyd has the traits to be a special RB perhaps - which just further compounds how awesome this backfield could be and no doubt all of them have immense hunger...Jacobs wants to prove worth the pay day....Dillon wants to show he is still a legit RB2 when asked....Lloyd to back up the "best back in the draft" talk....and Wilson continues to want to make everyone regret not drafting him.

 

[tynimiller]

Agree on Wilson. I haven't seen anything special from him, but I am always open to him looking like the 2nd coming of Walter Payton this season.

As I said in a few posts, no doubt that if the season started today, the 3 backs that would be suiting up for the Packers on Sunday would be Jacobs, Dillon and Lloyd. That said, there are almost 4 months between now and Week 1 and anything can and probably will happen to the "predicted" roster during that time. The only 2 locks to make the 53 at RB are Jacobs and Lloyd.

Wilson is rumored to have shed about 4% body fat and has been working on his accelleration and burst. I've heard it is noticeable...time will tell.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wilson is rumored to have shed about 4% body fat and has been working on his accelleration and burst. I've heard it is noticeable...time will tell.

Every season we have the Emanuel Wilsons at RB. Guys that have been on the team as PS players or see some occasional snaps due to injuries. Guys we have seen in the Preseason and look pretty good. I'm not saying that he won't surprise everyone and suddenly be our #2 or #3 RB, but history says that he probably won't.

Currently, there are only 5 RB's on the Packer roster, it wouldn't surprise me to see 1 more added. I would say the odds of Wilson being on the 53 or PS this Sept. are probably similar to those of Jarveon Howard's.

 

[sschind]

The talk of Dillon is here so apologies for going away from Lloyd for a second but folks know I was a massive critic of Dillon last year - from the jump I felt his burst was missing and his tenacity for the first time in his short career. But folks acting like he is a castaway that Wilson will push right off the roster is laughable IMO.

Let's visit Dillon for a second, in his immediate draft class he was selected 6th in the group. Of the five ahead of him only Antonio Gibson has more yards than him (2,643 vs 2428). He ranks 4th in total yards in the group, 6th in yards per games registered, his 4.07 yards per attempt is 6th amongst RBs with over 250 attempts.

Even if you include the 2019 class, AJ is still the 10th most productive running back in yards in all the classes since 2019...and only one running back drafted after him has more yards - which is Najee Harris who has been his teams feature back far more than Dillon.

Picture of spreadsheet I have running. Draft classes are color coded from 2019 through 2023

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Dillon no doubt is at the point in his career where I think he's realizing he isn't a feature type back in the league...BUT he easily is a RB2 with RB1 relief ability. To think otherwise is simply ignoring all which he has done up to this point and that doesn't even factor in anything when it comes to his knowledge of the offense and compare his pass blocking abilities vs all these other backs. Dillon has quietly become a VERY solid blocker in the backfield which is even MORE reason why it seems he is heading towards that FB/Hback TE role which has been hinted at.

Lloyd has the traits to be a special RB perhaps - which just further compounds how awesome this backfield could be and no doubt all of them have immense hunger...Jacobs wants to prove worth the pay day....Dillon wants to show he is still a legit RB2 when asked....Lloyd to back up the "best back in the draft" talk....and Wilson continues to want to make everyone regret not drafting him.

Your criticism of Dillon last season was warranted. When he was drafted I think many were figuring Jones would be gone a couple of years sooner and Dillon would be his replacement. Dillon didn't pan out for that and Jones stuck around for longer than many expected. Now however, Dillon isn't looked upon to be the #1 back and your assessment is spot on. For relief duty and maybe an occasional start we could do a lot worse. IMO Wilson would be worse. I expect Lloyd to be the #2 guy probably fairly early in the season but I also expect Dillon to get plenty of opportunities to prove he is still valuable to the team, or perhaps more importantly to another team. Im optimistic that he will show he is. If nothing else he should have a fire under his butt.