2023 Draft Talk

[OldSchool101]

Oren Burks was a 3rd rounder, so day two. Otherwise, I want to say, its been since 2006, when AJ Hawk was a day 1 pick at ILB. In that same draft that they drafted Hawk in the first, they also picked Abdul Hodge in the 3rd round.

I sometimes wonder if Burks shouldn’t have been a Safety. Yes he’s bigger than a traditional Safety. Yet he was extremely fast for his size and he seemed to excel at Safety in college. He got moved into a LB role and if I’m not mistaken, never really fully adapted there. Obviously some early injuries didn’t help. But it all felt like a bad experiment to my novice eye test.

One area we should be set at is ILB next draft. Although I’ve heard reports that they have been lining up Walker in that OLB role some. He’s near the size of a OLB and they might think that a good use of that 4.5 speed is rushing the QB more. Its also fairly unlikely you Run by Walker to make the edge. He’s also a very good tackler and you can count on 1 hand how many missed tackles he had in college. He’s a guy you want being disruptive while playing downhill.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I sometimes wonder if Burks shouldn’t have been a Safety. Yes he’s bigger than a traditional Safety. Yet he was extremely fast for his size and he seemed to excel at Safety in college. He got moved into a LB role and if I’m not mistaken, never really fully adapted there. Obviously some early injuries didn’t help. But it all felt like a bad experiment to my novice eye test.

One area we should be set at is ILB next draft. Although I’ve heard reports that they have been lining up Walker in that OLB role some. He’s near the size of a OLB and they might think that a good use of that 4.5 speed is rushing the QB more. Its also fairly unlikely you Run by Walker to make the edge. He’s also a very good tackler and you can count on 1 hand how many missed tackles he had in college. He’s a guy you want being disruptive while playing downhill.

Some interesting stuff. Yeah Burks was fast enough and maybe he wouldn't have had more success playing deep. ILBs need to start and stop on a dime. burks had great sideline-to-sideline speed, but just wasn't the right fit at ILB.

And we'll probably start to see LBs being able to play inside or outside. Even since the days of AJ Hawk and Blake Martinez, the role of ILB has changed dramatically. Putting up big tackle numbers (Blake Martinez) is not as important and being able to diagnose a play and stay put to stop the run, jump a gap and rush the QB, or drop into coverage.

 

[OldSchool101]

Some interesting stuff. Yeah Burks was fast enough and maybe he wouldn't have had more success playing deep. ILBs need to start and stop on a dime. burks had great sideline-to-sideline speed, but just wasn't the right fit at ILB.

And we'll probably start to see LBs being able to play inside or outside. Even since the days of AJ Hawk and Blake Martinez, the role of ILB has changed dramatically. Putting up big tackle numbers (Blake Martinez) is not as important and being able to diagnose a play and stay put to stop the run, jump a gap and rush the QB, or drop into coverage.

Yea. Imagine this. We got ourselves an All-Pro (at least currently) for the next 5 years for the same $$ that Blake got several years ago. When you add in his $2M last year? We’ve got the potential of paying Campbell $8.67M annual for a 6 year stretch.
That’s just a fantastic deal and combined with Walker? We should be set at iLB for at least 4 years minimum. That really allows us to narrow our focus on other position groups in the 2023 draft.

 

[tynimiller]

Yea. Imagine this. We got ourselves an All-Pro (at least currently) for the next 5 years for the same $$ that Blake got several years ago. When you add in his $2M last year? We’ve got the potential of paying Campbell $8.67M annual for a 6 year stretch.
That’s just a fantastic deal and combined with Walker? We should be set at iLB for at least 4 years minimum. That really allows us to narrow our focus on other position groups in the 2023 draft.

Barnes is a cherry on top of it all for this year at least too

 

[OldSchool101]

Barnes is a cherry on top of it all for this year at least too

Yes.
Something I didn’t remember until I was watching highlights of various games. Barnes was often in the highlights. He’s a pretty darn good ST player and will be great to have as a reliever there at LB. Yes I very much Agree and he’s an upgrade if he plays regular on ST for Rich.

Fun fact:
Krys Barnes was 1 of just 3 NFL UDFA Players since 2000 to record at least 75 tackles as a Rookie. He also went to High School at Liberty (Bakersfield, CA) and was a teammate of Jordan Love.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well Tonyan and DeGuarra can get some yardage (although I think DeGuarra serves well as an in-line blocker, not sure) and the ageless Lewis is back to block and surprise us now and then with a catch. That's a solid TE group if you look at potential. They all have to prove it.

In my opinion the tight end group is a question mark entering the season with Tonyan coming back from a torn ACL, Lewis getting up there in age and the other ones currently on the roster mostly being unproven.

And we'll probably start to see LBs being able to play inside or outside. Even since the days of AJ Hawk and Blake Martinez, the role of ILB has changed dramatically. Putting up big tackle numbers (Blake Martinez) is not as important and being able to diagnose a play and stay put to stop the run, jump a gap and rush the QB, or drop into coverage.

Teams still want their inside linebackers to make a ton of tackles. But unlike Hawk or Martinez most of them shouldn't come after the opponent has already gained several yards on the play.

 

[Heyjoe4]

In my opinion the tight end group is a question mark entering the season with Tonyan coming back from a torn ACL, Lewis getting up there in age and the other ones currently on the roster mostly being unproven.



Teams still want their inside linebackers to make a ton of tackles. But unlike Hawk or Martinez most of them shouldn't come after the opponent has already gained several yards on the play.

There's no doubt that the most gracious assessment one can make of the TE group right now is a question mark.

That was one thing that irritated me about Martinez (and maybe it was true for Hawk). He led the league a few times in tackles, around 140 or 150, but most of them were after the ball carrier had picked up 3, 4, 5 or more yards. When interviewed, he was so proud of all his tackles. I wasn't disappointed when he went to the Giants. He didn't seem to understand that where someone was tackled was more important than the tackle itself. And for that he got $10 mil/year in NY, the same deal Campbell just signed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Not sure I like the idea of getting draft picks for losing coaches and coordinators.

Agreed - comp picks for players, coaches, and coordinators is not an efficient way to build a team.

 

[Dantés]

Packers 2023 Free Agents:

-A. Lazard, WR, 27*
-S. Watkins, WR, 29*
-R. Cobb, WR, 32**
-R. Tonyan, TE, 28*
-M. Lewis, TE, 38**
-E. Jenkins, OL, 27*
-Y. Nijman, OT, 27**
-D. Lowry, DL, 28**
-J. Reed, DL, 30**
-T. Summers, LB, 27
-K. Nixon, CB, 25
-A. Amos, S, 29*
-M. Crosby, K, 38*

Packers 2024 Free Agents:

-A. Dillon, RB, 25**
-J. Deguara, TE, 27
-J. Runyan, G, 26*
-R. Gary, ED, 26*
-J. Garvin, ED, 24
-D. Savage, S, 26*
-V. Scott, S, 26
-P. O'Donnell, P, 33*

Possible/Probable Cap Casualties:

-A. Jones, RB, 29 (2024)*
-R. Douglas, CB, 28 (2024)*

*Starter
**Major Role Player

All of this is clearly subject to change. Injuries, extensions, outside signings, etc. will all influence it. But just looking ahead, I think offensive skill positions (WR/TE/RB) and safety will be major points of emphasis.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Packers 2023 Free Agents:

-A. Lazard, WR, 27*
-S. Watkins, WR, 29*
-R. Cobb, WR, 32**
-R. Tonyan, TE, 28*
-M. Lewis, TE, 38**
-E. Jenkins, OL, 27*
-Y. Nijman, OT, 27**
-D. Lowry, DL, 28**
-J. Reed, DL, 30**
-T. Summers, LB, 27
-K. Nixon, CB, 25
-A. Amos, S, 29*
-M. Crosby, K, 38*

Packers 2024 Free Agents:

-A. Dillon, RB, 25**
-J. Deguara, TE, 27
-J. Runyan, G, 26*
-R. Gary, ED, 26*
-J. Garvin, ED, 24
-D. Savage, S, 26*
-V. Scott, S, 26
-P. O'Donnell, P, 33*

Possible/Probable Cap Casualties:

-A. Jones, RB, 29 (2024)*
-R. Douglas, CB, 28 (2024)*

*Starter
**Major Role Player

All of this is clearly subject to change. Injuries, extensions, outside signings, etc. will all influence it. But just looking ahead, I think offensive skill positions (WR/TE/RB) and safety will be major points of emphasis.

I think Jones will eventually be a cap casualty. Maybe in 2024 when they have to pay Dillon. I don't know Douglas' cap hits, but I don't think they'd cut him. We'll see.

They have a lot of decisions to make in 2023. Top priorities for me would be Jenkins and Amos. Tonyan if he regains form. Cobb is probably done after this year. Watkins and Lazard need to step up their games, and a lot depends on how the rookies perform.

 

[Dantés]

I think Jones will eventually be a cap casualty. Maybe in 2024 when they have to pay Dillon. I don't know Douglas' cap hits, but I don't think they'd cut him. We'll see.

They have a lot of decisions to make in 2023. Top priorities for me would be Jenkins and Amos. Tonyan if he regains form. Cobb is probably done after this year. Watkins and Lazard need to step up their games, and a lot depends on how the rookies perform.

By 2024, Douglas' cap hit jumps to 10.8M and they save 9M of it by cutting him. You gladly pay that if he's playing at a high level, but we will see.

I agree that Jones is unlikely to see the end of his deal. Rodgers' decision on when to retire will impact it pretty heavily. They will likely want to keep Jones around as long as they're trying to push for another ring with Aaron.

Jenkins is easily the top priority, but his position uncertainty makes him interesting. If he's the right tackle moving forward, that's simple. But if he's the LG, but wants to get paid like a tackle? That's difficult.

 

[Heyjoe4]

By 2024, Douglas' cap hit jumps to 10.8M and they save 9M of it by cutting him. You gladly pay that if he's playing at a high level, but we will see.

I agree that Jones is unlikely to see the end of his deal. Rodgers' decision on when to retire will impact it pretty heavily. They will likely want to keep Jones around as long as they're trying to push for another ring with Aaron.

Jenkins is easily the top priority, but his position uncertainty makes him interesting. If he's the right tackle moving forward, that's simple. But if he's the LG, but wants to get paid like a tackle? That's difficult.

I didn't know the cap savings on Douglas were that high. So yeah, worth it if he plays well. If not........ I think a guy as talented as Jenkins should be playing T. I hate to say it bit it might be to replace Bakh. We'll see about that. A lot of decisions, as you mention with Jones, will depends on Rodgers. They'll have to take a hit of 459 mil next year. That's gonna drive some decisions. I think......

 

[tynimiller]

My buddy asked me the other day if I thought we were continuing to sit at 89 players because of a potential signing or is there a trade coming...I laughed and said we have no capital IMO we would A - want to move or B - it would make sense to move (depth reasons or what not).

To which he posed (as always) a question - "Okay, news breaks tomorrow that GB is trading for a WR to come back in return for the player...who is that player?" After clarifying level of WR coming back (a clear WR2 or 1 clearly coming back)...

I said Aaron Jones. Aaron is the only player that we arguably have a plug in starting level guy immediately behind him that another team would both want and for at least 2022 be willing to pay his cost....plus he becomes a financial liability after this season anyways. However, most likely the return guy would pose the same similar contract issue perhaps or be a guy projecting but not proven yet to be a WR1...and we've merely added another person in the WR room that is unproven.

To which get this he follows up (love our hypo discussions) what if Seahawks call and offer Metcalf for Jones/Lazard in return or Lockett for Jones in return...do you take either deal.

Personally the Lockett for Jones makes sense as we instantly have a WR1 proven and room in the room is made by Lazard going to (FA in 2023) - HOWEVER I'd want a 4th or so back as well because Lockett is a contract with very little wiggle for relief until after 2023 and his hit next year is bigger than Jones would be anyways....however arguably a much bigger need position and with Lazard, Cobb and Watkins all not signed after this year worst case you have him and all our now rookies + Amari...not a terrible thing. This trade would hinge on GB's staff and their comfort with Dillon and most importantly someone behind him stepping up. Is Hill healthy and ready, Taylor, Goodson or Baylor showcasing skills...or do we see a vet minimum guy out there to snaggle as insurance cheap for our NOW SB push in 2022.

I don't like the Metcalf for Jones trade personally. Honestly I don't see us wanting to pay Metcalf more or similar to what we were willing to pay Adams, and with DK's age he's going to get Terry M type money if nothing else....no thanks. I'll take my chances perhaps even convincing AJ to take a restructure for another year if needed for a 2023 push.

 

[tynimiller]

I didn't know the cap savings on Douglas were that high. So yeah, worth it if he plays well. If not........ I think a guy as talented as Jenkins should be playing T. I hate to say it bit it might be to replace Bakh. We'll see about that. A lot of decisions, as you mention with Jones, will depends on Rodgers. They'll have to take a hit of 459 mil next year. That's gonna drive some decisions. I think......

The good thing is Stokes keeps playing how he has and who knows we draft a Day 1 or 2 CB in 2023 draft - releasing Douglas is very viable and easily done move....or you extend him another year lessoning the hit.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The good thing is Stokes keeps playing how he has and who knows we draft a Day 1 or 2 CB in 2023 draft - releasing Douglas is very viable and easily done move....or you extend him another year lessoning the hit.

That makes sense, and they may need the $9 mil to help resign Stokes.

And a correction - Jenkins is too good to play guard. I'd rather see him at T. And if Bakh is in trouble, they may need him at LT.

 

[Schultz]

I personally am of the opinion that R. Gary is numero uno in the re-signing game.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I personally am of the opinion that R. Gary is numero uno in the re-signing game.

Agree. Stokes won't be resigned for a while. Jenkins was drafted after Gary as well, I think.

 

[gopkrs]

Agreed - comp picks for players, coaches, and coordinators is not an efficient way to build a team.

If it is a sideways move you have to think about it but I think if it is for a higher coaching job; you have to let him go anyway. I don't think anyone wants to give away their coaches (unless they do), but if it is inevitable; at least you get something. It's tough not to let someone get a better job when they have the opportunity and you can't give him the same.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If it is a sideways move you have to think about it but I think if it is for a higher coaching job; you have to let him go anyway. I don't think anyone wants to give away their coaches (unless they do), but if it is inevitable; at least you get something. It's tough not to let someone get a better job when they have the opportunity and you can't give him the same.

Comp picks in general usually don't really match the value of the player, or coach, given up. That's what I meant to say. I do agree that if a guy is offered a promotion with another team, ya gotta let him go. The comp pick returns some value. But it's good to remember that the team invested a lot of resources in a guy who just walked. If he or she is that good, promote them internally if possible.

 

[Pkrjones]

If he or she is that good, promote them internally if possible.

The "if possible" is the problem. There are numerous position coaches on offense & defense each with numerous assistants. There's only 1 OC & 1 DC, and only 1 HC so it gets increasingly difficult to find promotions for those that deserve it within a successful organization.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The "if possible" is the problem. There are numerous position coaches on offense & defense each with numerous assistants. There's only 1 OC & 1 DC, and only 1 HC so it gets increasingly difficult to find promotions for those that deserve it within a successful organization.

Yeah that is the problem. Can only hope that over time it evens out.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think Jones will eventually be a cap casualty. Maybe in 2024 when they have to pay Dillon.

In my opinion there's no way Aaron Jones is one the roster in 2023 if his contract isn't restructured. He's currently set to count $20 million against the cap next year.

I hate to say it bit it might be to replace Bakh. We'll see about that.

The structure of Bakhtiari's contract makes it awfully tough for the Packers to move on from him after this season. While the team would save close to $6 million in cap space by either trading or releasing him before March 20 the move would result in more than $23 million of dead money counting against their cap.

I said Aaron Jones. Aaron is the only player that we arguably have a plug in starting level guy immediately behind him that another team would both want and for at least 2022 be willing to pay his cost....plus he becomes a financial liability after this season anyways.

The Packers trading Jones at this point would result in $13.5 million of dead money counting against the team's cap either this or over the next two seasons. Considering he only counts $5.9 million towards the cap in 2022 I don't consider that to be a smart idea.

Jenkins was drafted after Gary as well, I think.

Both Gary and Jenkins were drafted in 2019. But, with the Packers having exercised the fifth year option on Gary he's under contract through the 2023 season while Jenkins is set to become a free agent next offseason.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Gute should immediately trade our 6th Round pick to NYG, San Fran, or Minn for their (2) 7th rounders to capitalize on multiple, cheap(er) pre-UDFA picks. Along with our 2 that would give him 4 shots in the 7th!

We don't have a 6th

 

[Heyjoe4]

In my opinion there's no way Aaron Jones is one the roster in 2023 if his contract isn't restructured. He's currently set to count $20 million against the cap next year.



The structure of Bakhtiari's contract makes it awfully tough for the Packers to move on from him after this season. While the team would save close to $6 million in cap space by either trading or releasing him before March 20 the move would result in more than $23 million of dead money counting against their cap.



The Packers trading Jones at this point would result in $13.5 million of dead money counting against the team's cap either this or over the next two seasons. Considering he only counts $5.9 million towards the cap in 2022 I don't consider that to be a smart idea.



Both Gary and Jenkins were drafted in 2019. But, with the Packers having exercised the fifth year option on Gary he's under contract through the 2023 season while Jenkins is set to become a free agent next offseason.

Agree, I would not trade Jones in 2022 for (almost) any reason. There's no cap advantage, but he's an ever greater asset to the team with the depleted WR group. He'll almost certainly be gone next year, especially with Jenkins coming into a contract year. No surprise if they extend Jenkins this year, assuming they can with the cap. I think it's possible.

Bakhtiari's situation is grim if he can't play again. A $23 million hit in a year when Jenkins has to be extended. I'm sure it's possible, but anyway you cut it, $23 million in dead cap is money that can't be spent on, say, a WR or TE.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Agree, I would not trade Jones in 2022 for (almost) any reason. There's no cap advantage, but he's an ever greater asset to the team with the depleted WR group. He'll almost certainly be gone next year, especially with Jenkins coming into a contract year. No surprise if they extend Jenkins this year, assuming they can with the cap. I think it's possible.

The Packers could keep Jones for next season by restructuring his contract. There's no way he will be around with a cap hit of $20 million in 2023 though.