This WR room at the Week 11 mark...(included Musgrave in stats)

[tynimiller]

A lot can be said on whether it was smart to enter the season with no wide receiver with a full season of experience, but I'll admit that the cutting of proverbial teeth has been impressive to watch and this group of pass catchers.

Through the ten games we have this is where our WR room is at (only put top 5):

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Now this is not a deep analytical dive, more a overall production review. Yes Wicks is one of the best not just on the team but in the league at beating man coverage and separation creation...yes Reed is producing yards and tuddies at a faster rate than Watson did as a rookie...yes Doubs is pacing to catch 12 TDs by the season end (two shy of the insane James Jones year a lot of GB fans memorialize).

Yellow items represent the leader in that category.

Wicks - folks ask why so many are saying he may just have the highest ceiling and likelihood of being a true WR1 in the future....well even beyond the analytics of his route running, separation...look at his INSANE ability to convert first downs. 80% of his catches have went for a first down....He has 76 less snaps than Watson but has massively out produced him...and he and Reed are the two highest catch percentage guys right now right around 62.5%. Also folks this man refuses to go down, his vision and line selection is amazing and his juice is vastly more charged than folks realize.

Watson - clearly having a down year. I chalk this year up as a sophomore slump (I HOPE) because his traits are nasty good...but we may just have a bigger, faster MVS 2.0 at this point worst case (which I'm not saying isn't bad necessarily) but that is not what you want from a guy that many argue was a first round talent stolen in second round. His health and his play both are making his future out of all skill players tougher to predict. Good thing is he's easily not going anywhere and 2024 I sense is going to be the year it all crystalizes...for the good or the bad.

Doubs - I told my buddy he is James Jones 2.0 at his best and Allen Lazard 2.0 at his worst...can be a #1 when needed but I think may be best served to be in a shared room type approach or with one other alpha dog WR1. Dude has a nack for tuddy catches more than anyone on our roster for sure. I want Doubs in GB for years to come IMO.

Reed - He is better than rookie Cobb was - yup I said it. It is crazy how the similarities exist between them and what they do good, but Reed is vastly more fluid and natural IMO in his movements and his vision is like that of a RB it seems. If Reed isn't careful, by 2024 he will find himself the constant target/touch leader in the WR/TE rooms. This kid is special and right now you see his future more clearer than Watson.

Put Musgrave in there just for sake of he is a big part of the receiving game for us...that kid is doing very well for a rookie TE in making things happen.


There is a lot to be excited about as the young weapons, while lumps have existed, are growing and showcasing this group could be NASTY into the future.

 

[AmishMafia]

Thanks for putting this together.

Couple of thoughts:

Doubs: Love has a full season of familiarity with him and targets may be because of familiarity. I recall video of them working out together during last offseason. Some of his targets may spread to others next season.

Watson: still has a way to go as a WR. It may take another year or 2. It took adams a few seasons before it clicked for him. He can always be a complimentary player and a big asset.

Reed: he added quite the spark to the offense we have not had in a long time. Yeah, I think he will be better than Cobb. At this point Cobb only had experience and QB familiarity going for him in the comparison. I say Reed passes him next season.

Looking forward to Wicks and the whole receiver room going forward. The future is bright.

 

[PackerDNA]

Really impressed with Wicks. They've got to find a bigger role for him moving forward.

 

[gopkrs]

I don't really know how the opposing DBs have been looking at our receivers. But I imagine if Wicks keeps it up; they will eventually give him more thought. Theoretically, that should open someone else up. We have a bunch of receivers that are fast/quick and with good hands. So we should be able to deal with that. Kraft at least showing up last game also helps. And I liked that Heath finally caught a ball. He caught everything near him in pre-season. If we give Love some time and he continues to throw like he did against the Chargers; we could be all right on offense.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't really know how the opposing DBs have been looking at our receivers. But I imagine if Wicks keeps it up; they will eventually give him more thought. Theoretically, that should open someone else up. We have a bunch of receivers that are fast/quick and with good hands. So we should be able to deal with that. Kraft at least showing up last game also helps. And I liked that Heath finally caught a ball. He caught everything near him in pre-season. If we give Love some time and he continues to throw like he did against the Chargers; we could be all right on offense.

Heath keeps blocking like he did, he is patiently waiting and will be there to capitalize on more snaps should others struggle or "won't say it" happens.

 

[Poppa San]

Doubs hits me as the first of the receivers to figure out and develop the ability on how to fight for the ball. He is getting into the "this is my ball" mindset that Sharpe and Larry Fitzgerald and other really good physical WRs had. Watson and Musgrave aren't there yet. Wicks has been so open usually that he hasn't had to get the 50/50 ball from the defender. Reed will always need to be schemed open similar to Tyreek Hill or Cole Beasley.

 

[tynimiller]

Doubs hits me as the first of the receivers to figure out and develop the ability on how to fight for the ball. He is getting into the "this is my ball" mindset that Sharpe and Larry Fitzgerald and other really good physical WRs had. Watson and Musgrave aren't there yet. Wicks has been so open usually that he hasn't had to get the 50/50 ball from the defender. Reed will always need to be schemed open similar to Tyreek Hill or Cole Beasley.

I would personally argue Reed attacks the ball with a fierceness no one else does. Doubs positions his body the best and fluidly when going to the ball, smoother while Reed is violate almost....but when you're his size he is leveling the field some.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I'm telling you, I'm excited about the future with these guys. They have a great diversity of skills and I don't think a single one of them realize that they should be struggling this early in their careers.

Also, it completely slipped under my radar that Musgrave has 33 catches so far. He has a legit chance to break the Packers' single-season receptions record by a TE as a ROOKIE. He would need 61 to tie Finley.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm telling you, I'm excited about the future with these guys. They have a great diversity of skills and I don't think a single one of them realize that they should be struggling this early in their careers.

Also, it completely slipped under my radar that Musgrave has 33 catches so far. He has a legit chance to break the Packers' single-season receptions record by a TE as a ROOKIE. He would need 61 to tie Finley.

Yeah I think he ends up shy of it, with the explosion of Reed and Wicks Musgrave and Watson I think are the two that might lose the targets the most due to that. Luke has had massive struggles and looks lost still at times, but that kid has the special potential for sure.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Yeah I think he ends up shy of it, with the explosion of Reed and Wicks Musgrave and Watson I think are the two that might lose the targets the most due to that. Luke has had massive struggles and looks lost still at times, but that kid has the special potential for sure.

Watson has been open deep many times this year and has been underthrown. I'm crediting him with good play since he obviously doesn't throw to himself. I also do think Love's inaccuracy downfield will take care of itself. Young QBs have a tendency to try to aim and "steer" the ball to the receiver. I think once he has full command of the offense and starts to trust his arm a lot of those throws are going to hit their mark. He had a great deep ball at Utah State. The NFL is just a faster game and he'll adjust.

 

[tynimiller]

Watson has been open deep many times this year and has been underthrown. I'm crediting him with good play since he obviously doesn't throw to himself. I also do think Love's inaccuracy downfield will take care of itself. Young QBs have a tendency to try to aim and "steer" the ball to the receiver. I think once he has full command of the offense and starts to trust his arm a lot of those throws are going to hit their mark. He had a great deep ball at Utah State. The NFL is just a faster game and he'll adjust.

I won't admonish Watson completely, folks say he's been open a lot, but I haven't seen it on re-watch of film. It is clear however, he and Love are not on the same page - whom at times has the brunt of the blame only those inhouse on the calls know for sure. Route angles can be a massive difference too and the bad thing with Watson is you gotta get the ball out early with his speed.

Love is still leading the league in 30+ yard passes so he doesn't suck at deep balls, but for sure improvement is there to be had.

 

[El Guapo]

Watson is great at using his straight-ahead speed. Love is worst at throwing the deep ball. It makes sense that the little guys are getting more of the on-target throws now. Last year, Watson's "break-out" play was a slant (IIRC). Once Love develops that deep ball better and/or Watson runs better inside routes, they will take off.

I think that Doubs will be a really good #2 receiver. He just doesn't have a #1 WR opposite him to draw the attention yet.

 

[tynimiller]

It is confirmed, Love still leads the league with 30+ yard completions with 18.

 

[Half Empty]

What are the numbers for 30+ incompletions?

 

[tynimiller]

What are the numbers for 30+ incompletions?

ooo....I'll have to see if that is something anyone has captured. I doubt I desire to do it for the whole league if it isn't tracked.

 

[tynimiller]

What are the numbers for 30+ incompletions?

Okay not going to do them all but will pull the three guys after him at 30+ and go week by week. Gonna take a bit but I'm curious too much to not....

FTR it is Purdy with 17, Stafford with 17 and Tua with 16

 

[Poppa San]

It is confirmed, Love still leads the league with 30+ yard completions with 18.

Air yards or is YAC included?

 

[tynimiller]

So this isn't apples to apples but the only tracked stat for similar is 30+ in the air targets and Next Gen does that - so not really same but here is some

Love 7/26 on balls 30+
Stafford 6/14 (missed a week)
Tua 8/12 Next Gen is weird Tua is missing like two weeks entirely.....gonna add another QB that is 4th on the 30+ list
Hurts 9/24

 

[tynimiller]

Air yards or is YAC included?

Pass completions that result in 30 yards or more.

 

[Dantés]

I think that Watson is proving to be more of a role player (a la MVS) than a WR1. With his speed, that still has a lot of value. But I don't think he should be highly targeted.

 

[gopkrs]

I think that Watson is proving to be more of a role player (a la MVS) than a WR1. With his speed, that still has a lot of value. But I don't think he should be highly targeted.

At least not right now. And it could even be a game to game thing depending on defense. But I agree? that it would not benefit Love to really target anyone more than on a game to game basis. And probably some games not targeting anyone.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's a crazy thing I should have included....how many snaps does each WR need right now to get a target.

Watson is being targeted the least per snap of the main WRs and better than a TE (Musgrave) and Toure.

Watson 9.46 snaps to a target
Doubs 7.85 snaps to a target
Reed 7.37 snaps to a target
Wicks 9.27 snaps to a target

Musgrave 10.2 snaps to a target

 

[Poppa San]

Pass completions that result in 30 yards or more.

So a 40 yard screen play counts the same as a 40 yard toe tap completion.

I recall Watson being highly regarded for his blocking ability thus he'd used as such on running plays. This would increase his non targeted to targeted ratio.

 

[tynimiller]

So a 40 yard screen play counts the same as a 40 yard toe tap completion.

I recall Watson being highly regarded for his blocking ability thus he'd used as such on running plays. This would increase his non targeted to targeted ratio.

For the stat about 30+ yard completions yes, across all QBs it is apples to apples. Now above I shared air yard targets by Next Gen and that is slightly different and more pure air distance covered on an attempt.

 

[gatorpack]

Love has a terrible deep ball right now. That's not even a question