Why is the Khalil Shakir Extension News A Big Deal For GB???

[tynimiller]

Khalil Shakir just signed a contract extension before entering the original final year of his rookie contract...and it just crystalized some of the fiscal decisions on Packers horizon by it...

Drafted in 2022 Shakir has been solid but I wouldn't say incredible. He's never started more than 10 games (2023), although has been active in 14 or more each of his three seasons. He's averaged 531 yards a season, with his best season being 2024 where he put up 821 yards / 4 TDs. To me one of Shakir's best traits is his hands - dude is a vacuum cleaner to the ball and rarely has drops (3 over his three years).

His 3 year career stats are below...and inserted with his are two Packers drafted in his same draft we all know:

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Shakir's average depth of target (ADOT) is INSANELY short. That is incredible to see...no wonder he has such a high completion percentage and low drop numbers. The dud barely gets off the line most of the time for his completions.

Added as it comes up in comments...here is YAC stats:

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The Bills and Shakir just agreed to extend him with a four year extension worth $60.2M - $15M AAV. $32 Million guaranteed.

A few of us already said, Watson and Doubs BOTH if able to be signed (Watson before his injury) by the league in this off season would get $15M a year likely...Shakir just set the level it would take if GB wanted to keep Doubs AND Watson if Christian comes back this season and his contract doesn't toll a year.

If Doubs goes out and locks up another 800 yard year with 5-8 TDs...what does GB do? What should GB do in your opinion?

If I'm Doubs...I've already told my agent - call Gute tell him I'll ink that same or very similar deal...

Everyone knows I'm a Doubs guy...but even I think Gute would have to say let's see what 2025 shows us...or IF I'm Gute and I see Doubs as a guy that is always going to provide 750 yards a year, solid blocking and a great WR2 then I get the logic behind trying to work something out....but I'd want to personally see what FA brings and the draft prior to it.

Either way, both Doubs and Watson (in a different way) LOVED to see the Shakir deal.


Another way to look at it...would you rather hear the news Gute gives Darius Slayton $15M/year deal or Doubs?

Would you rather you hear Gute brings Diggs in for $13M/Yr or Cooper for $14M/Yr...what about Godwin for $22M/Yr....

 

[gopkrs]

I saw Shakir make some very good catches this past year and I think Allen kind of looks for him. He also showed me, at least, an ability to run after the catch. They probably think he is only going to get better.

 

[tynimiller]

I saw Shakir make some very good catches this past year and I think Allen kind of looks for him. He also showed me, at least, an ability to run after the catch. They probably think he is only going to get better.

Here's the three of them with YAC stats - yup, as is the case MANY of your leaders in YAC are your short and intermediate type receivers. Like Reed on our team...

YAC Yards	YAC/R	BrkTkl
962	7.7	7	Shakir
465	3.2	5	Doubs
530	5.4	3	Watson

Reed in just two seasons has 715 yards of YAC already and averages 6.0 YAC per reception and his ADOT is 9.8 just for those curious.

 

[David Ciembronowicz]

stats tell the truth, Shakir has better overall stats in same time frame than either GB receiver. Both GB receivers more snaps, lower reception rate, etc, etc.. YAC major difference. All in all one needs to consider who the Bills receivers are that start, what their records are/have been in same time-frame AND also the result of each catch (that is not in the stats) such as FD made, keeping the drive going, etc. etc. IMO, Shakir has better stats than either GB receiver considering fewer snaps he had overall, would not give Doubs $15M/yr or Watson at this stage (considering he may not even play in 2025-26). The other factor not considered herein is Offense played by each team, what are their strengths, the play calling, etc.. If Shakir is a go-to for FD's and keeping a drive going or short yardage in red zone then that may explain his stats. Doubs and Watson have had "highlight" catches but consideration of the QB and play calling is critical and unexplained in the stats.

 

[tynimiller]

stats tell the truth, Shakir has better overall stats in same time frame than either GB receiver. Both GB receivers more snaps, lower reception rate, etc, etc.. YAC major difference. All in all one needs to consider who the Bills receivers are that start, what their records are/have been in same time-frame AND also the result of each catch (that is not in the stats) such as FD made, keeping the drive going, etc. etc. IMO, Shakir has better stats than either GB receiver considering fewer snaps he had overall, would not give Doubs $15M/yr or Watson at this stage (considering he may not even play in 2025-26). The other factor not considered herein is Offense played by each team, what are their strengths, the play calling, etc.. If Shakir is a go-to for FD's and keeping a drive going or short yardage in red zone then that may explain his stats. Doubs and Watson have had "highlight" catches but consideration of the QB and play calling is critical and unexplained in the stats.

I don't think anyone is using this to make a case that Doubs or Watson are superior. I also don't think anyone would say Shakir is grossly superior.

I know, because I've had this discussion with some Packer fans, if Shakir didn't have YAC over them but say 20 TDs instead folks would point to that as the stat to isolate and justify slighting what Doubs and Watson have done.

I concur I'm not giving Doubs exactly the same deal if I wanted to keep him and I was Gute. BUT market would indicate easily $12M-$14M a year is what his market value is.