When is a Player Drafted a Bust?

[mradtke66]

Subtract from 9 the round drafted for the number of training camps they should be in. That is how long their career, barring injury or stupidity, should work out to.
IMO over the course of their career:
1st round picks are HOF material, should be consistent All-pro candidates and go to multiple Pro bowls.
2nd round picks should be pro bowlers and a career year all-pro.
3rd round picks are solid starters with an occasional pro bowl nod.
4th rounders should be a starter you are always looking to upgrade or a journeyman.
5th rounders are solid backups and spot starters and core ST players. Always looking over their shoulder.
6th rounders are solid depth. They are the bubble guys year after year.
7th rounders are the churn and just look to make the final roster or are almost guaranteed a PS slot.

Anything above these is gravy or a steal, anything much below two rounds lower is a bust. Based on this AJ Hawk was not a waste. Nor is Oren Burks just yet.

This isn't bad, but I think you're expecting maybe a little too much, if only because of how few players can be HOF/AllPros. Only so many slots to go around each year. If you shifted it up slightly (1st rounder as pro-bowlers, 2nd rounders are starters, etc) I think you're closer. I'm actually curious if there is a correlation between draft position and HOF rate and/or if that changes by position. Hey Cap, got an afternoon?

I do like the 9-N approach, but your own ratings from 5-7th round implies that they will likely not meet it/regularly miss it. 9-N for a 6th rounder is 3 years, but if he's a bubble player, he's gone after his second training camp. I struggle to call that a bust either.

 

[El Guapo]

Great topic. I haven't posted it much in recent years, but I've maintained a draft spreadsheet that goes back to 1950 tracking all of the Packers picks. I just use "Success" or "Failure" as that's how it began, but Poppa's criteria has a lot of merit. To Pokerbrat's point, I usually note when a player goes on to play well with other teams. However, my criteria is pretty simple. Regardless of draft position, did the player become a solid contributor for the team as a starter or strong backup for multiple seasons. Grading draft position (IMO) is unfair to the player. AJ Hawk is always a great example because he was a stout ILB for many years. Some think he's a bust because he was drafted at #5 but had he been drafted in the 7th round we would think of him as a steal - like Bryce Paup, a 6th round gem who continued to have a good career after the Packers.

Another level of a bust is the position drafted. While Kamal Martin was kind of a bust at ILB, had the Packers used that pick (#175) for a punter or kicker, that would be even a bigger bust. A 5th round QB on the other hand wouldn't get much attention.

In this situation, I always think of Mike Sherman drafting punter BJ Sander in the 3rd round of 2004. What a waste! In that same third round, he also drafted Joey Thomas (CB) and Donnell Washington (DT) but nobody really remembers them.

I look forward to more of this discussion.

 

[El Guapo]

A bit of Packers trivia:
The deepest "steel" that I can find is the Packers drafting Al Barry (guard) in the 30th round of 1953. Barry was a three year veteran and starter in his third season, but was traded in 1958 along with guard Joe Skibinksi when rookie Jerry Kramer (4th round) emerged as an instant rookie stud. Big props as usual to Jack Vainisi (with some credit to Verne Lewellen) for selecting Kramer.


Related trivia:
Why did the Packers wait until the fourth round to draft Kramer? They first had to draft Dan Currie in the first round, Jim Taylor in the second round, and Ray Nitschke in the third round. Of course, they could have drafted Kramer with their other third round pick but nobody is perfect. They merely caught excellence while relentlessly chasing perfection.

 

[Krabs]

Complicating that--Harrell was injured in college, but it was something like a biceps tear or similar.

What killed his career was apparently a back injury related to lifting. I have a hard time entirely labelling that a bust. (I've even heard rumors that the FO blamed the S&C pushing him too hard during recovery. And that pushing potentially caused that back injury. if that's true, ouch.)

It was the Packers fault for drafting him. He wasn't expected to go in the draft till late if at all. Everyone was shocked he got taken. He missed his entire senior year to a tore bicep muscle. His NFL career was riddled with injury. I think you're the only one having a hard time listing him as a bust. He is only 2nd to Mandarich as all time Packer busts in my book!

 

[lambeaulambo]

Jamal Reynolds and Hooha are in my top 10 largest busts based upon 1's...

 

[Krabs]

A bit of Packers trivia:
The deepest "steel" that I can find is the Packers drafting Al Barry (guard) in the 30th round of 1953. Barry was a three year veteran and starter in his third season, but was traded in 1958 along with guard Joe Skibinksi when rookie Jerry Kramer (4th round) emerged as an instant rookie stud. Big props as usual to Jack Vainisi (with some credit to Verne Lewellen) for selecting Kramer.


Related trivia:
Why did the Packers wait until the fourth round to draft Kramer? They first had to draft Dan Currie in the first round, Jim Taylor in the second round, and Ray Nitschke in the third round. Of course, they could have drafted Kramer with their other third round pick but nobody is perfect. They merely caught excellence while relentlessly chasing perfection.

Now that is a draft!

 

[Krabs]

Jamal Reynolds and Hooha are in my top 10 largest busts based upon 1's...

I was just going to mention him as one of my all time Packer busts as well. Woof!

 

[mradtke66]

It was the Packers fault for drafting him. He wasn't expected to go in the draft till late if at all. Everyone was shocked he got taken. He missed his entire senior year to a tore bicep muscle. His NFL career was riddled with injury. I think you're the only one having a hard time listing him as a bust. He is only 2nd to Mandarich as all time Packer busts in my book!

Meh. Other than weird position ratings, I pretty much call BS on the whole “He wouldn’t have gone that early” stuff.

We don’t get to see the the draft boards of any teams, for all we know, he was the the top remaining player on everyone’s board. Could have also been taken off everyone’s board. It’s unlikely we’ll ever know.

And a torn bicep isn’t really comparable to a bad back ending a career.

Am I defending him? Not really, but the idea he was injury prone in college isn’t really true.

Reynolds was a far bigger whiff imho. Harrell, injury issues aside, looked like a 5T 3-4 end and for those admittedly brief times, could actually do the job—I got excited with the start to 2010 before he popped his ACL. Reynolds was just bad.

 

[El Guapo]

Reynolds was a reach for sure.

Don Horn was another big first round bust. I guess one could also call out Mossy Cade, but he was a bust because of the off-field issue - not necessarily his play.

As for second round busts, Brian Brohm has to be up there.

 

[Poppa San]

A bit of Packers trivia:
The deepest "steel" that I can find is the Packers drafting Al Barry (guard) in the 30th round of 1953. Barry was a three year veteran and starter in his third season, but was traded in 1958 along with guard Joe Skibinksi when rookie Jerry Kramer (4th round) emerged as an instant rookie stud. Big props as usual to Jack Vainisi (with some credit to Verne Lewellen) for selecting Kramer.


Related trivia:
Why did the Packers wait until the fourth round to draft Kramer? They first had to draft Dan Currie in the first round, Jim Taylor in the second round, and Ray Nitschke in the third round. Of course, they could have drafted Kramer with their other third round pick but nobody is perfect. They merely caught excellence while relentlessly chasing perfection.

1960 draft had 20 rounds. Packers signed Willie Wood. the guy in Canton, as a free agent. 240 players were drafted that year including John Littlejohn in the 16th by Green Bay. Willie was a steal.
BTW only 14 overall #1 picks and 10 #2's are in Canton.

 

[Poppa San]

This isn't bad, but I think you're expecting maybe a little too much, if only because of how few players can be HOF/AllPros. Only so many slots to go around each year. If you shifted it up slightly (1st rounder as pro-bowlers, 2nd rounders are starters, etc) I think you're closer. I'm actually curious if there is a correlation between draft position and HOF rate and/or if that changes by position. Hey Cap, got an afternoon?

That's why I gave them an OK if they met or surpassed two rounds lower also.
BTW, 106 players drafted 1st round are in Canton, including AFL and other pro leagues. That is almost exactly half of the draftees. Another 16 UDFA are also there.
https://www.profootballhof.com/heroes-of-the-game/hall-of-famers-by-draft-round/

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I grade the NFL player when reflecting on a draftee personally. I do agree, one should clarify if they ONLY review a draftee by whether they succeeded for the initial team that drafted them. That is two very different ways of reviewing that cannot mix at all.

I'm solely interested in a draftee's impact on the Packers. It doesn't do the team any good if he's productive for another club.

This isn't bad, but I think you're expecting maybe a little too much, if only because of how few players can be HOF/AllPros. Only so many slots to go around each year. If you shifted it up slightly (1st rounder as pro-bowlers, 2nd rounders are starters, etc) I think you're closer. I'm actually curious if there is a correlation between draft position and HOF rate and/or if that changes by position. Hey Cap, got an afternoon?

Since the 1970 draft after the merger 75 of the 126 (59.5%) Hall of Famers have been drafted in the first round. In addition there have been 18 second, 11 third, six fourth, two fifth, one sixth, two seventh and one eighth rounders who have made it to Canton.

In addition nine HOFers went undrafted over that period with Cris Carter being the only one selected in the supplemental draft.

 

[Krabs]

Am I defending him? Not really, but the idea he was injury prone in college isn’t really true.

Reynolds was a far bigger whiff imho. Harrell, injury issues aside, looked like a 5T 3-4 end and for those admittedly brief times, could actually do the job—I got excited with the start to 2010 before he popped his ACL. Reynolds was just bad.

Not to start an argument, but I have to disagree with you on Harrell. He had a long history of injuries before being drafted.

"The back problems and shin splints in high school. The leg surgery and broken ankle as a freshman at Tennessee. More ankle problems as a sophomore. The torn biceps as a senior."

I used to be a passionate viewer and researcher of the draft. I've lost a bit of passion for it when they changed the start to Thursday night. He was drafted back when I never missed a minute of the draft. I specifically remember this pick and how confused the analysts were about this choice. I give this pick a BustF.

Totally agree with you on Reynolds though.

 

[Krabs]

As for second round busts, Brian Brohm has to be up there.

Oh man, Brohm! That is a BustF. I remember watching him in preseason and the lollypop throws that guy made. I was thinking, man, he puts a lot of air under the ball.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm solely interested in a draftee's impact on the Packers. It doesn't do the team any good if he's productive for another club.

And I solely look and grade the NFL player unless the parameters of a discussion are set as you and some others specify - both ways are 100% accurate and right ways to go about grading a player, but should never be mixed or confused as they simply cannot.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Also, the Hollman and Jackson trades.

Hollman, I believe, was a sixth rounder.

Jackson has been a bust to this point, IMHO.

The fact that Green Bay was able to get something in trade for either one is a plus, especially since neither would have made this roster.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm solely interested in a draftee's impact on the Packers. It doesn't do the team any good if he's productive for another club.

And I solely look and grade the NFL player unless the parameters of a discussion are set as you and some others specify - both ways are 100% accurate and right ways to go about grading a player, but should never be mixed or confused as they simply cannot.

I agree with both of you. The reason I pointed out the difference between grading a player's NFL career VS grading the same player's Packer career, some tend to mix the 2. Specifically in grading a Draft class. 2 players come to mind, Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde. Both players were decent in GB, but not that great. Then they both go to other teams and are Pro Bowlers. While neither were cut, but lost through Free agency after their rookie contracts, I don't remember the Packers or many fans fretting over them going elsewhere. Matter of fact TT neglected to make either a contract offer and later apologized that he didn't work out a deal with Hyde. Given that, I wouldn't use what either player did elsewhere when I grade those two draft classes. Sure TT drafted 2 eventual studs, but for some reason neither blossomed in Green Bay and/or the Packers didn't see the potential.

 

[tynimiller]

I agree with both of you. The reason I pointed out the difference between grading a player's NFL career VS grading the same player's Packer career, some tend to mix the 2. Specifically in grading a Draft class. 2 players come to mind, Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde. Both players were decent in GB, but not that great. Then they both go to other teams and are Pro Bowlers. While neither were cut, but lost through Free agency after their rookie contracts, I don't remember the Packers or many fans fretting over them going elsewhere. Matter of fact TT neglected to make either a contract offer and later apologized that he didn't work out a deal with Hyde. Given that, I wouldn't use what either player did elsewhere when I grade those two draft classes. Sure TT drafted 2 eventual studs, but for some reason neither blossomed in Green Bay and/or the Packers didn't see the potential.

Yup those are two of the best examples of how the two approaches would grossly mislabel the players depending on the parameters of the discussion for sure!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yup those are two of the best examples of how the two approaches would grossly mislabel the players depending on the parameters of the discussion for sure!

Thankfully, we haven't had a lot of those. However, having recent draft picks like Rollins, Josh Jones, Spriggs, Randall, Dix, Datone Jones, Josh Jackson, Nick Perry, Worthy, etc. be pretty much draft busts for the Packers, doesn't help the 2021 team at all.

EDIT: Perry wasn't really a draft bust, more of a second signing bust.

 

[tynimiller]

Thankfully, we haven't had a lot of those. However, having recent draft picks like Rollins, Josh Jones, Spriggs, Randall, Dix, Datone Jones, Josh Jackson, Nick Perry, Worthy, etc. be pretty much draft busts for the Packers, doesn't help the 2021 team at all.

EDIT: Perry wasn't really a draft bust, more of a second signing bust.

I almost called you on Perry, but you corrected yourself. He for certain wasn't a draft bust...but drastically underpeformed that second signing, even worse than Lowry has.

The worst is if you have half or more of a draft do that.

I don't personally ever expect more than 3 to 5 draftees in each class to truly see the end of their rookie contract. Just a tough league to stick in...I think that is where of late we are shining big time, not only have we had some MASSIVE HITS (Jaire, Jenkins, Jones) suspected other BIG HITS (Savage, Gary, Dillon) and of late OL picks have been excellent it appears and then you have a bunch of even Day 3 guys over the last four drafts that will be on roster and some being solid contributors (MVS, Keke, Runyon) and others that will be contributors it appears (Scott, Garvin, Slaton, Van Lanen, Hill)

 

[Sanguine camper]

A GM has to find 4 starters per year and one of those has to be pro bowl/all pro material if you want to win a Super Bowl. Most Super Bowl teams have 6 to 8 pro bowlers with some of those HOF quality. There are 22 starters, throw in the nickel back, 3rd WR, punter, kicker, and a good kick returner. If those starting caliber players last 7 years as a starter on average you have the need to find 4 per year. The GM has to then draft those guys, preferably in the upper 3 or 4 rounds. If those draft picks fail to be decent starters for 6 or 7 years. then the team likely has a big roster hole to fill. If a 1 to 3rd round pick isn't a good long term starter for the Packers, then he's a bust and makes it necessary to go to free agency which stresses the salary cap or you need to get lucky and find good starters lower in the draft. The Packers gave had a bunch of high draft pick busts that have stressed the salary cap and caused roster holes that are all too easily exploited in the playoffs. It wouldn't be for the low round gems like Cory Linsley, the team would've been sunk by the bad drafting in the upper rounds. When, it comes to upper draft picks, the bar is set high if you want to win the Super Bowl. A few years as a serviceable starter isn't good enough.

 

[scotscheese]

Some might say a pick is a bust as soon as they're drafted, then being only 3rd string in their rookie season

coughlovecough

 

[OldSchool101]

And I solely look and grade the NFL player unless the parameters of a discussion are set as you and some others specify - both ways are 100% accurate and right ways to go about grading a player, but should never be mixed or confused as they simply cannot.

I’m butting in y’all’s conversation. But by definition “draft bust” implies exactly that. Only 1 team drafts a given player. If said player goes on to excel or bust for another team? Then that’s a Trade bust or FA success etc..
It took me a minute to decipher that because as you said there were no definitive parameters. But “draft” implies 1 team drafting and unless someone opens that to FA or trades discussion etc.. it remains the drafting team imo.

 

[OldSchool101]

Some might say a pick is a bust as soon as they're drafted, then being only 3rd string in their rookie season

coughlovecough

Funny. Jordan Love was drafted as a college Junior with zero off-season snaps due to covid protocols (historic anomaly) and sat behind the best QB in the history of the game.. and yet some of y’all think he should be designated our #2 QB to make you feel better about him as a Day 1 pick?
That Jordan depth chart poke always had a hint of desperation in its fiber (cough cough covid sneeze!)
I guess for me? It’s just such a predictable slight on someone. Like that’s the best you got? Really

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And I solely look and grade the NFL player unless the parameters of a discussion are set as you and some others specify - both ways are 100% accurate and right ways to go about grading a player, but should never be mixed or confused as they simply cannot.

Your approach is fine if you're interested in the player's development but that doesn't do the Packers any good if that happens with another team.