What TT Gets Right and Wrong about FA

[Mondio]

The one to Cobb was bad, the one to adams should have been a free play, the one to Jordy missed by inches off his finger tips. Jordy also stumbled coming out of his break too. Rogers is a great QB, I don't know how people can argue differently. He's not perfect, none of them are. He's made mistakes, thanks for the update. And every great QB has had other players make great plays for them too.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Pointing out ones the Packers have had throughout the years isn't a good way to measure a GM.

I think it's the perfect way to measure a GM's performance. And while I agree that all other teams in the league have holes as well the Packers ones have been too deep to overcome to get to another Super Bowl over the last five years.

 

[Carl]

I think it's the perfect way to measure a GM's performance. And while I agree that all other teams in the league have holes as well the Packers ones have been too deep to overcome to get to another Super Bowl over the last five years.

Mistakes by players not a considered a hole in the line up have been just as much a part of not getting another as well.

Also, they've had a team go 15-1 and beat the Super Bowl champ on the road. Another team was up 16-0 in the NFC Championship and also beat the champs that season. Those teams clearly demonstrated an inability to overcome holes and be good enough to win it all.

It's not on TT the teams didn't play to their ability when it mattered most.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Also, they've had a team go 15-1 and beat the Super Bowl champ on the road. Another team was up 16-0 in the NFC Championship and also beat the champs that season. Those teams clearly demonstrated an inability to overcome holes and be good enough to win it all.

It's not on TT the teams didn't play to their ability when it mattered most.

I don't care about beating the eventual champs in the regular season, especially when losing to them in the playoffs.

Taking about those teams you mentioned though one of them gave up 37 points against the Giants after having a terrible defense all year long and the other was let down by a lack of talent at ILB (20 points in the NFCCG can be directly attributed to it). Both of these are on the GM.

 

[Carl]

I don't care about beating the eventual champs in the regular season, especially when losing to them in the playoffs.

Taking about those teams you mentioned though one of them gave up 37 points against the Giants after having a terrible defense all year long and the other was let down by a lack of talent at ILB (20 points in the NFCCG can be directly attributed to it). Both of these are on the GM.

And many of those points were off 4 turnovers when one of the best offenses of all time played terribly. That's not on the GM.

Outplaying the NFC Champions for 56 minutes also clearly demonstrates a roster talented enough to win that game. The mistakes at the end were not an TT. Neither were the pick Rodgers through early.

Mistakes were bigger issues in those games than roster holes.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And many of those points were off 4 turnovers when one of the best offenses of all time played terribly. That's not on the GM.

Outplaying the NFC Champions for 56 minutes also clearly demonstrates a roster talented enough to win that game. The mistakes at the end were not an TT. Neither were the pick Rodgers through early.

Mistakes were bigger issues in those games than roster holes.

There's no doubt the offense didn't play well against the Giants in the 2011 playoff game but those four turnovers resulted in only 10 points. The defense giving up a hail mary TD just before halftime was the deciding play in this one though.

Once again, other players made mistakes during the NFCCG as well but the inside linebackers were directly responsible for 20 points allowed. Every single person following the Packers before the 2014 season was well aware that safety and ILB were in dire need of an upgrade. While Thompson did a good job drafting Clinton-Dix his reluctance to address ILB came back to haunt the team.

 

[gsopacker]

Look at what Arians has done in Arizona. Hired in 2013 he has assembled a team with nearly as many free agents (21) as draft picks (24). Throw in a trade that brought Carson Palmer and you have arguably the best team in the NFL in 2 years. And it appears he can coach.

Just a quick note, when Arians took over AZ, they were not exactally a 'laughing stock', they had a pretty good base of talent. Time will tell if the FA's he added will lead to long term success.

 

[Un4GivN]

The defense giving up a hail mary TD just before halftime was the deciding play in this one though.

This play happened like 15 yards or less in front of my 2nd row endzone seats. I was a sad panda.

 

[mradtke66]

Every single person following the Packers before the 2014 season was well aware that safety and ILB were in dire need of an upgrade. While Thompson did a good job drafting Clinton-Dix his reluctance to address ILB came back to haunt the team.

The mistake I think most people when assessing TT's free agent approach is purely based on who actually gets signed. Obviously, that is hugely important, but we don't know how the scout the season's free agents or how they negotiate with those players. Maybe the guys we want to sign don't want to come to GB. Maybe they want "too much," which is obviously subjective (to a point.)

I don't doubt that TT is reluctant to do too much with FA, but evidence has shown that he will sign guys that meet his criteria: Pickett, Woodson, Peppers, and Guion were mid-range to expensive and lived up to expectations. I'm not sure what the compromise-level of FA is between "current approach" and "Crazy Redskins signing everyone and wasting all of the money."

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The mistake I think most people when assessing TT's free agent approach is purely based on who actually gets signed. Obviously, that is hugely important, but we don't know how the scout the season's free agents or how they negotiate with those players. Maybe the guys we want to sign don't want to come to GB. Maybe they want "too much," which is obviously subjective (to a point.)

I don't doubt that TT is reluctant to do too much with FA, but evidence has shown that he will sign guys that meet his criteria: Pickett, Woodson, Peppers, and Guion were mid-range to expensive and lived up to expectations. I'm not sure what the compromise-level of FA is between "current approach" and "Crazy Redskins signing everyone and wasting all of the money."

Ron Wolf didn't have any troubles signing free agents so I doubt there are currently a lot of players reluctant to sign with the Packers.

I don't want Thompson to go crazy and act like Dan Snyder at times with the Redskins but he has to start to selectively use free agency to address obvious positions of need. There's no doubt the draft is there for a team to build its foundation but it's not the best way to fill holes on a team close to a championship.

 

[TJV]

IMO the obvious is true: Money is what attracts free agents and while select few players may not want to live in a small town like Green Bay, I don't think that plays much of a part overall in their decisions: The Packers have a well run organization with a franchise QB.

 

[mradtke66]

I don't want Thompson to go crazy and act like Dan Snyder at times with the Redskins but he has to start to selectively use free agency to address obvious positions of need. There's no doubt the draft is there for a team to build its foundation but it's not the best way to fill holes on a team close to a championship.

I don't disagree with the general idea: a couple more free agents would likely be better.

Counterpoint: I would argue that he does "selectively use free agency to address obvious positions of need." If that were not the case, the four best free agents he signed wouldn't have come: Pickett, Woodson, Peppers, Guion.

Here are some of the free agents the TT has brought on board (that are easily found via Wikipedia). Please correct me if I missed someone obvious.

2005: Can't find a source, but I believe we signed two guards to help replace Whale and Rivera: Klemm and O'Dweyer?
2006: Woodson and Picket
2007: (only undrafted players)
2008: Brandon Chillar
2009: Anthony Smith, Duke Preston
2010: Charlie Peprah
2011: (only undrafted players)
2012: Jeff Saturday, Daniel Muir, Anthony Hargrove, Cedric Benson
2013: (only undrafted players)
2014: Peppers and Guion
2015: (only undrafted players)

I guess I'm picking on the phrasing or the absoluteness of the phrasing. He does selectively use FA. You might want him to do so more. I'm certainly not opposed to that at all--if one could be found, I want a coverage ILB that isn't Joe Thomas.

 

[mradtke66]

IMO the obvious is true: Money is what attracts free agents and while select few players may not want to live in a small town like Green Bay, I don't think that plays much of a part overall in their decisions: The Packers have a well run organization with a franchise QB.

I suspect you're right--money talks. I am merely pointing out the giant pile of "we don't know" that happens during scouting, offering, and negotiating.

Not that I think it's likely, as it does go against his MO, but for all we know, TT offers 50 guys a contract in the offseason.

 

[TJV]

Just FYI, this is the only part of your post I thought was funny:

Not that I think it's likely, as it does go against his MO, but for all we know, TT offers 50 guys a contract in the offseason.

I'm pretty sure the pro personnel department has information on all available free agents and I'll bet they inquire about any they think can help the Packers so they know about how much it'll take to sign them. But I'll also bet that very quickly the vast majority of them price themselves out of what Thompson is willing to pay. I would be interested in how many they've engaged in serious negotiations with and lost out to another team.

 

[mradtke66]

I would be interested in how many they've engaged in serious negotiations with and lost out to another team.

I'd also like to know, but I can't imagine we'll ever get that info. I do remember reading in off-seasons past that other teams have flat out used the Packers as leverage. It's been a few years, but I believe Igor Olshansky negotiated with us just to get more money from Cowboys.

The earliest we would know would be after TT retires. And even then, he doesn't like the focus to be on him. Why would he write a book or grant that kind of interview when he's 75 or 80?

But I'll also bet that very quickly the vast majority of them price themselves out of what Thompson is willing to pay.

That's probably the real meat of it. And I don't know the right answer. He certainly isn't know for spending big, but we still have evidence for spending pretty big on Woodson and Peppers. Is the right word "conservative?" Is it "cautious?" "Paranoid?" Are the other teams spending "extravagantly"?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't disagree with the general idea: a couple more free agents would likely be better.

Counterpoint: I would argue that he does "selectively use free agency to address obvious positions of need." If that were not the case, the four best free agents he signed wouldn't have come: Pickett, Woodson, Peppers, Guion.

Here are some of the free agents the TT has brought on board (that are easily found via Wikipedia). Please correct me if I missed someone obvious.

2005: Can't find a source, but I believe we signed two guards to help replace Whale and Rivera: Klemm and O'Dweyer?
2006: Woodson and Picket
2007: (only undrafted players)
2008: Brandon Chillar
2009: Anthony Smith, Duke Preston
2010: Charlie Peprah
2011: (only undrafted players)
2012: Jeff Saturday, Daniel Muir, Anthony Hargrove, Cedric Benson
2013: (only undrafted players)
2014: Peppers and Guion
2015: (only undrafted players)

I guess I'm picking on the phrasing or the absoluteness of the phrasing. He does selectively use FA. You might want him to do so more. I'm certainly not opposed to that at all--if one could be found, I want a coverage ILB that isn't Joe Thomas.

However you might want to put it, Thompson doesn't use free agency often enough. It is extremely tough to win the Super Bowl even by using all ways available to improve a team, mostly ignoring two out of three doesn't make it any easier.

 

[mradtke66]

However you might want to put it, Thompson doesn't use free agency often enough.

I'm not sure I buy that; I detest absolutes. My thought are that he generally gets it right, but I would like him to solve simple, targeted problems a little more. For example, I'd like an coverage ILB if one exists this year that won't break the bank. If such a player cannot be had, I'd rather not sign a guy. Signing someone just to sign them strikes me as wasteful.
I'd be thrilled with a Brandon Chillar-class signing. What would that be, accounting for cap increases--26-27 years old, 3-ish million per year?

In your opinion, approximately how much of his cap should he allocate each year to free-agent acquisitions? Approximately how many roster slots per year? How many of those are you prepared to cut after training camp if it turns out those players aren't actually better than what we have.

 

[mradtke66]

mostly ignoring two out of three doesn't make it any easier.

I presume the 3rd option is trades? They're stupid rare across the entire NFL. Due to the cap implications (accelerated signing bonuses) the team that parts with a player usually ends up hurting.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My thought are that he generally gets it right, but I would like him to solve simple, targeted problems a little more.

That´s exactly what I want Thompson to do as well. I´m not advocating for the Packers to bring in all of the top free agents available every single season but to smartly use free agency to address positions of need.

In your opinion, approximately how much of his cap should he allocate each year to free-agent acquisitions? Approximately how many roster slots per year? How many of those are you prepared to cut after training camp if it turns out those players aren't actually better than what we have.

There isn´t a specific number I´m looking for entering the offseason but I take a close look at the roster and identify positions in dire need of an upgrade and want Thompson to bring in a veteran to fill these holes. For example, this season I would be excited if the Packers would bring in ILB Brandon Marshall and TE Ladarius Green. While moves like that result in the team having less cap space remember that Thompson doesn´t hesitate to sign our own free agents to lucrative deals some of them shouldn´t have been signed to in the first place and not surprisingly never live up to (Hawk and Jones being prime examples).

An additional benefit of smart usage of free agency would be that Thompson could truly draft best player available without having to account for need, something he truly excels in.

I presume the 3rd option is trades? They're stupid rare across the entire NFL. Due to the cap implications (accelerated signing bonuses) the team that parts with a player usually ends up hurting.

Since Thompson took over as the Packers GM he has acquired six players via trade. That is way beyond the league average of 19.4 per team over the same period. There are for sure a ton of trades that didn´t work out but there´s a smart way to use trades to improve a team as well.

 

[mradtke66]

There isn´t a specific number I´m looking for entering the offseason but I take a close look at the roster and identify positions in dire need of an upgrade and want Thompson to bring in a veteran to fill these holes. For example, this season I would be excited if the Packers would bring in ILB Brandon Marshall and TE Ladarius Green.

On paper, those sound reasonable. But the important question is right now, today, what are you willing to pay for each of them? What contract do you offer? What is the signing bonus? What's the base salary? How likely is it that those two don't even leave their current teams? (Which is the age old problem, the good players tend not to leave, because their own teams extend or resign them first.)

My opinion is you have to treat these deals like an auction: have a number written down that is your max offer. It's too easy to overbid if you don't have that pre-set cap.

Since Thompson took over as the Packers GM he has acquired six players via trade. That is way beyond the league average of 19.4 per team over the same period. There are for sure a ton of trades that didn´t work out but there´s a smart way to use trades to improve a team as well.

I'd like to see a lot more info about these trades. Again, because of the cap penalty of the team that is sending a player, my initial suspicion is that the vast majority of those trades are for things like "long snappers" and "3rd string tightend." In other words, players that don't have a bonus that would result in dead money.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

On paper, those sound reasonable. But the important question is right now, today, what are you willing to pay for each of them? What contract do you offer? What is the signing bonus? What's the base salary? How likely is it that those two don't even leave their current teams? (Which is the age old problem, the good players tend not to leave, because their own teams extend or resign them first.)

My opinion is you have to treat these deals like an auction: have a number written down that is your max offer. It's too easy to overbid if you don't have that pre-set cap.

I agree that a GM has to make sure that a deal works within a team´s salary cap structure but that is true when re-signing own free agents as well.

I'd like to see a lot more info about these trades. Again, because of the cap penalty of the team that is sending a player, my initial suspicion is that the vast majority of those trades are for things like "long snappers" and "3rd string tightend." In other words, players that don't have a bonus that would result in dead money.

I don´t have any information about that and for sure not the time to do a thorough research on it.

 

[mradtke66]

I agree that a GM has to make sure that a deal works within a team´s salary cap structure but that is true when re-signing own free agents as well.

True, but resigning your own is typically easier. You have a relationship with them. If you get them early, they tend to be cheaper, if only because no one else is bidding on them. Bulaga and Cobb took, in my mind anyway, slightly below market rate for their positions.

But back to Marshall the ILB--what is his contract going to look like? $4 million per year would put him at about the 22nd highest paid ILB. 6 million puts him at 14th. How much do you think it is worth to pay him? Do you think he's willing to come play in Green Bay for whatever number you come up with? Is he worth the number he wants?

Mostly I'm picking on you because "We should sign some guys" isn't quite so easy. I'd like TT to be a little more active, but I don't know what that means.

I don´t have any information about that and for sure not the time to do a thorough research on it.

Damn it, any college students around who can look that up? We need a forum intern, I swear...

 

[Deleted member 6794]

True, but resigning your own is typically easier. You have a relationship with them. If you get them early, they tend to be cheaper, if only because no one else is bidding on them. Bulaga and Cobb took, in my mind anyway, slightly below market rate for their positions.

No doubt about that.

But back to Marshall the ILB--what is his contract going to look like? $4 million per year would put him at about the 22nd highest paid ILB. 6 million puts him at 14th. How much do you think it is worth to pay him? Do you think he's willing to come play in Green Bay for whatever number you come up with? Is he worth the number he wants?

I really don´t know how much money it would take to have Marshall signing with the Packers but if he makes it to free agency I hope Thompson at least inquires about what it would take to bring him to Green Bay. And I understand that if he doesn´t end up in green and gold we won´t ever know if TT offered him a contract at some point.

Mostly I'm picking on you because "We should sign some guys" isn't quite so easy. I'd like TT to be a little more active, but I don't know what that means.

It has become pretty obvious to me over the last few years that only using the draft and signing undrafted free agents to acquire talent results in some positions in pretty obvious need of improvement. I really have a tough time believing that there was no opportunity to upgrade the ILB or TE position by bringing in a veteran free agent at any point over that period. Thompson´s reluctancy to bring in outsiders who have played for other teams in a situation like that have unfortunately hurt the team.

Damn it, any college students around who can look that up? We need a forum intern, I swear...

I´m all for it, where can I sign???