Unwritten rules of football that need to go

[Deleted member 6794]

Bill Barnwell lists some unwritten rules coaches shouldn't follow anymore. In my opinion the article is an interesting read.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ts-throwing-football-unwritten-rules-nfl-2016

 

[El Guapo]

Some interesting takes on things. I can see most arguments either way, and all should be taken within the context of the specific game situation. If I were coach, I would weigh the variables but still have a rule of thumb to follow if it's 50/50 or you just don't have time to think.

However, I disagree with his thoughts about eschewing the field goal in a low-scoring game - his last "rule." I think that most low-scoring games occur because either the opponent's defense is that good or your own offense is that bad. Either way, your chances of turning three points into seven is greatly diminished. That's why you take what you have a higher probability of getting. Of course scoring is up and the rules favor offenses, but that in a vacuum doesn't making scoring points any easier in a low-scoring game.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

However, I disagree with his thoughts about eschewing the field goal in a low-scoring game - his last "rule." I think that most low-scoring games occur because either the opponent's defense is that good or your own offense is that bad. Either way, your chances of turning three points into seven is greatly diminished. That's why you take what you have a higher probability of getting. Of course scoring is up and the rules favor offenses, but that in a vacuum doesn't making scoring points any easier in a low-scoring game.

I understand your point of view but you have to consider the opponent's starting field position in case the offense gets stopped as well.

 

[broguy]

I understand your point of view but you have to consider the opponent's starting field position in case the offense gets stopped as well.

Good article. I always like Barnwell's stuff, as he approaches the game from a very analytical perspective. As Barnwell mentions, a coach isn't going to be able to calculate these probabilities on the fly, and I think we're a long way from coaches using statistical models to make in game decisions. But at the same time coaches have to have a basic understanding of these concepts and balance them with factors that they are seeing in an individual game. These expected points models are very coarse, because they don't hone in on specific game situations. For instance, as El Guapo was hinting, the probability of converting a fourth down and eventually scoring a TD in a low scoring game is likely diminished because, as the score indicates, you're playing a strong defense.

One particular drive from the Minnesota game comes to mind. We were down 10-7 middle to late third quarter, and had driven the ball 70 some yards in 9 plays. Faced with a 4th and 2 on Minnesota's 14 yard line, McCarthy went for it rather than attempt a field goal to tie the game. You know the rest from there - they stop us, drive it down for a touchdown, and then, after a touchdown of our own and a few costly turnovers, we end up losing by 3. Now hindsight is always 20/20, and the fumble and interception in the 4th were both extremely costly, but I thought that was a clear example of when the game dictates taking the points.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

One particular drive from the Minnesota game comes to mind. We were down 10-7 middle to late third quarter, and had driven the ball 70 some yards in 9 plays. Faced with a 4th and 2 on Minnesota's 14 yard line, McCarthy went for it rather than attempt a field goal to tie the game. You know the rest from there - they stop us, drive it down for a touchdown, and then, after a touchdown of our own and a few costly turnovers, we end up losing by 3. Now hindsight is always 20/20, and the fumble and interception in the 4th were both extremely costly, but I thought that was a clear example of when the game dictates taking the points.

The expected points value (2.63) actually suggested to kick the field goal in that situation vs. the Vikings.

 

[broguy]

The expected points value (2.63) actually suggested to kick the field goal in that situation vs. the Vikings.

Well, there ya go.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One thing I always keep in mind in the "decision to kick a FG or go for it", is that even if you do go for it and make it, that alone does not guarantee a TD will be scored on that drive. More times then not, it seems you are facing the same decision later, just a little closer to the end zone, or you can turn the ball over (on downs or turnover) and get no points. While Mason Crosby isn't automatic, I trust him to give us the 3 in most areas of the field where I would feel comfortable going for it on 4th down. So for me, unless the game is on the line or it appears we are going to need more then 3 points (big deficit or high scoring game), I say take the 3 while you can.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Bill Barnwell lists some unwritten rules coaches shouldn't follow anymore. In my opinion the article is an interesting read.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ts-throwing-football-unwritten-rules-nfl-2016

That first example is pretty odd. After that I lost interest.

A teams makes a field goal on 4th. and 2 but the defense was offside. I cannot recall a recent instance where a team did not "take the points off the board" and take the penalty. So who follows this unwritten rule? Nobody.

There are few unusual situations where it is clear the points should be kept. At an extreme, the clock is winding down and your kicker makes the 55 yarder to take the lead. Yeah, of course, you keep the points. But as a matter of routine in the predominant kinds of situations, the team takes the penalty almost universally.

 

[OldSchool101]

I still think taking FG points early in a low scoring game is best. The argument there was not strong (because points are at a premium you want to take a chance to get as many as you can when in position)
We found out the hard way in a close 17-14 match in US Bank Stadium where we neglected to kick a FG and be patient. Understanding that this still did not necessarily guarantee a win in this example.. it would've at the very least forced the Vikings to score again after the 4th Qtr INT Aaron threw.
This would be more palpable if we had been goal to go. Here, Making a 1st down also Doesn't guarantee points. You could say it also risks a turnover
Although I think the opposite is true. I would go for it on 4th and 1 in FG range in the 1st half against the likes of a Mattie Ice or Tom Brady led Offense.

 

[Poppa San]

The expected points value (2.63) actually suggested to kick the field goal in that situation vs. the Vikings.

So what is the expected points value against arguably the best defense in the league as opposed to vs an average run of the mill defense?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I still think taking FG points early in a low scoring game is best. The argument there was not strong (because points are at a premium you want to take a chance to get as many as you can when in position).

I agree that you do take the points...when the defense does not commit a penalty. The exceptions in my book are those where the FG probability is relatively low and the first down probability is relatively high. 4th. and 1 at the opponent's 35 early in a game is an example where I say go for it, no question. There's a 7 or 8 yd. field position edge that argues for going for it as well. If fail on the run or pass, the opponent gets it on their own 35 or thereabouts. If you miss the FG they get it on their 42 or 43.

Barnwell was talking about keeping the three points instead of taking the penalty first down as an "unwritten rule", early in a tie game no less. To belabor the point, nobody does that and there is no such "unwritten rule".

The more interesting case is 4th. and 6, your guy makes a long FG, the defense was offside. You can keep the 3 points or take your chances on 4th. and 1. That case could go either way based on the game situation.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So what is the expected points value against arguably the best defense in the league as opposed to vs an average run of the mill defense?

Unfortunately expected points value doesn't consider the quality of the offense and defense facing each other.