Tracking the #1 seed

[pacmaniac]

Can count on McCarthy to lay an egg in playoffs.

We don't know that. There are different variables now in the McCarthy equation.

 

[Magooch]

Prior to week 15, FiveThirtyEight had us at 45% to win the #1 seed in the NFC, followed by the Bucs at 40%, Cardinals at 10%, and Cowboys at 5%.
Today they've now got us at 79% and the Cowboys at 14% - then the Bucs at 6% and the Cardinals down to just 0.9%.

 

[PackAttack12]

I love the prospect of getting another week's rest for Rodgers' toe, and potentially giving Jaire, Bakh, Z, Myers, etc. another week to be ready if needed.

 

[OldSchool101]

Not sure. Cowboys are the most vulnerable top seeded team for now. They are likely to get to play Saints or Vikings and that's not a given. Can count on McCarthy to lay an egg in playoffs. More likely for us to get the weakest seeded team after bye week.

I think you misinterpreted me.
We may not have a bye week if we tie the Cowboys because they hold the tiebreaker by a mile. If that’s what you meant? Dallas just replaced Tampa as our next biggest seeding threat. We both know playing in GB is preferred. Let those Boys come up into 13 degrees it’ll be a rude awakening for them.

We could use 1 Cowboys loss over the next 2 weeks.. and then we are golden! Until then just Win baby! Then we can all argue over how we will do in the Super Bowl!!

 

[OldSchool101]

I love the prospect of getting another week's rest for Rodgers' toe, and potentially giving Jaire, Bakh, Z, Myers, etc. another week to be ready if needed.

I’m with you. Some of us argue about our bye week woes.. but having everyone beat the crap out each other wildcard week? Glorious! I’ll enjoy these guys assaulting , I mean cough cough., tackling each other while we slowly eat pizza and sip on a cold one.

Did I hear Garrett pulled a groin?

 

[PackAttack12]

I’m with you. Some of us argue about our bye week woes.. but having everyone beat the crap out each other wildcard week? Glorious! I’ll enjoy these guys assaulting , I mean cough cough., tackling each other while we slowly eat pizza and sip on a cold one.

Did I hear Garrett pulled a groin?

I'm not sure why some are worried about the bye week. The Packers have had a 1st round bye each of the last two seasons and won the divisional game to advance.

Give me the bye week all day every day without a second thought.

 

[rmontro]

We may not have a bye week if we tie the Cowboys because they hold the tiebreaker by a mile. If that’s what you meant? Dallas just replaced Tampa as our next biggest seeding threat.

Playing in Dallas would be interesting. Rodgers has a history of playing well in Dallas, unlike his predecessor Favre. You would think Rodgers with the famous chips on his shoulder would refuse to lose to McCarthy in that position. But I'll take the #1 seed if I can get it.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

Playing in Dallas would be interesting. Rodgers has a history of playing well in Dallas, unlike his predecessor Favre. You would think Rodgers with the famous chips on his shoulder would refuse to lose to McCarthy in that position. But I'll take the #1 seed if I can get it.

Always take home field no matter the opponent. It is especially important this season in case this is Rodgers' final year as a Packer; I would like to see us hoist the NFCCG trophy in Lambeau for that reason alone

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Playing in Dallas would be interesting. Rodgers has a history of playing well in Dallas, unlike his predecessor Favre. You would think Rodgers with the famous chips on his shoulder would refuse to lose to McCarthy in that position. But I'll take the #1 seed if I can get it.

I think I fear Dallas more than I do a rematch with Tampa Bay for a number of reasons. Tampa Bay is pretty dinged up, especially their secondary. Now that might change between now and a playoff meeting. I also think Dallas has the better defense. Finally, McCarthy probably knows Rodgers better than many coaches, he might just have some tricks up his sleeve to slow him down. All that said, I like our chances against either team playing at Lambeau.

 

[pacmaniac]

You would think Rodgers with the famous chips on his shoulder would refuse to lose to McCarthy in that position.

The same chips that caused him to be 0-3 against SF in the playoffs?

 

[Sanguine camper]

#1 seed means even less for the Packers this year. With their makeshift o line they won't have the running game to wear down an opponent in a cold weather game. Might as well play somewhere warm where the passing game won't be hampered.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

#1 seed means even less for the Packers this year. With their makeshift o line they won't have the running game to wear down an opponent in a cold weather game. Might as well play somewhere warm where the passing game won't be hampered.

They could potentially have Bahk, Turner and Myers back, so don't give up yet. Really amazing when you add the loss of Jenkins, the OL depth has been commendable.

 

[rmontro]

The same chips that caused him to be 0-3 against SF in the playoffs?

Everybody has their kryptonite. I always thought it was interesting that Favre's favorite team growing up was the Cowboys, and he was 0-9 in Dallas. While Rodgers favorite team was the 49ers, and he's winless in San Francisco. I wonder if there's some psychological conflict at play there?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Everybody has their kryptonite. I always thought it was interesting that Favre's favorite team growing up was the Cowboys, and he was 0-9 in Dallas. While Rodgers favorite team was the 49ers, and he's winless in San Francisco. I wonder if there's some psychological conflict at play there?

While Rodgers is 0-3 against the Niners in the playoffs he's 3-2 at San Francisco in the regular season.

 

[Sanguine camper]

They could potentially have Bahk, Turner and Myers back, so don't give up yet. Really amazing when you add the loss of Jenkins, the OL depth has been commendable.

You have to play to your strengths and minimize your weaknesses. While Turner may be back, its looking more likely with each passing day that Meyers suffered a major knee injury and Bahktiari can't put weight on his knee in practice without some type of swelling or reinjury. Both guys are probably done and Bahktiari may be looking at a career ending injury. I would not rely on a patchwork o line to grind out a heavy run based gameplan. Might as well play on the road under those conditions.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You have to play to your strengths and minimize your weaknesses. While Turner may be back, its looking more likely with each passing day that Meyers suffered a major knee injury and Bahktiari can't put weight on his knee in practice without some type of swelling or reinjury. Both guys are probably done and Bahktiari may be looking at a career ending injury. I would not rely on a patchwork o line to grind out a heavy run based gameplan. Might as well play on the road under those conditions.

The Packers actually focus on throwing the ball in playoff games at Lambeau as well. Since Rodgers became the starter he has dropped back on 58.8% of the offensive plays at home.

In addition, with the Packers having secured the NFC North title it's already guaranteed they will host a playoff game. I definitely prefer the first one to be in the divisional round.

 

[Voyageur]

The Packers actually focus on throwing the ball in playoff games at Lambeau as well. Since Rodgers became the starter he has dropped back on 58.8% of the offensive plays at home.

In addition, with the Packers having secured the NFC North title it's already guaranteed they will host a playoff game. I definitely prefer the first one to be in the divisional round.

How does that 58.8% compare to the rest of the league? Also, is it possible to determine their won/lost records above and below that figure?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How does that 58.8% compare to the rest of the league? Also, is it possible to determine their won/lost records above and below that figure?

Since 2008, teams have combined to throw the ball on 59.4% of the offensive plays in the playoffs. The Packers are 5-5 when throwing the ball on a higher percentage of plays over that period while being 6-4 when running the ball more often.

 

[Voyageur]

Since 2008, teams have combined to throw the ball on 59.4% of the offensive plays in the playoffs. The Packers are 5-5 when throwing the ball on a higher percentage of plays over that period while being 6-4 when running the ball more often.

Thank you! That's interesting. We're pretty much right on par with everyone else. I think it's the nature of the league to throw the ball a little more than running it. I don't think it's always necessarily because teams want to, but chunk yards are needed so often that you know that throwing it is about the only way you get that yardage.

You bring out some extremely interesting stats about the game. This just augmented my belief that the theory that we throw the ball much more than other teams isn't quite true.

 

[Sanguine camper]

While the Packers are winning games that could go either way, I do think its important to keep the starters in to maintain their sharpness going into the playoffs irrespective of seeding. I just don't think the Packers have much of a home field advantage in the playoffs, especially with a patchwork o line that is better at pass protection than run blocking. # 1 seed didn't help last season and in 2011. If the Packers wrapped up homefield against the Vikings, I would still want MLF to treat the Lions game seriously instead of benching the starters even with the injury concerns. Its too easy to get out of synch when there has been so little continuity this year. Given all the injurues. most of the players don't need additional time off and should have fresh legs. Which starters have played every game? Maybe Amos and Runyon.

 

[OldSchool101]

Always take home field no matter the opponent. It is especially important this season in case this is Rodgers' final year as a Packer; I would like to see us hoist the NFCCG trophy in Lambeau for that reason alone

Yes. Such an exciting prospect for the City and our loyal fans. It all starts with Cleveland. We need to go out and hammer them like 10D nail

 

[OldSchool101]

While the Packers are winning games that could go either way, I do think its important to keep the starters in to maintain their sharpness going into the playoffs irrespective of seeding. I just don't think the Packers have much of a home field advantage in the playoffs, especially with a patchwork o line that is better at pass protection than run blocking. # 1 seed didn't help last season and in 2011. If the Packers wrapped up homefield against the Vikings, I would still want MLF to treat the Lions game seriously instead of benching the starters even with the injury concerns. Its too easy to get out of synch when there has been so little continuity this year. Given all the injurues. most of the players don't need additional time off and should have fresh legs. Which starters have played every game? Maybe Amos and Runyon.

I know where you’re going. But 2011 is forever ago and our Defense was not nearly as good. Plus we get an extra week to allow us to get Z or Bak or J back? Imagine losing before we even see them on the field

I want you to imagine us going into a Wildcard and maybe even winning. But during the course of the game Rodgers suffers another significant injury and is Carted off. If we’ve got a #1 seed lock and they play Rodgers @ Detroit? I’m going to be very discouraged and I don’t care if we Win 40-0.
Not even to mention the added benefit of Rodger’s broken toe getting time to heal.

 

[rmontro]

Always take home field no matter the opponent. It is especially important this season in case this is Rodgers' final year as a Packer; I would like to see us hoist the NFCCG trophy in Lambeau for that reason alone

That's another experience Favre had that Rodgers hasn't, as of yet.

One thing that worries me about our chances to represent the NFC is that we've had a lot of close games that could have gone one way or the other. I don't think our record is inflated though.

As for whether getting a bye week would make us rusty, that could always happen. But statistically, if you look at the history of who gets into the Super Bowl, it's the teams that got the byes more often than not. So I will always take the bye if we can get it.

 

[Voyageur]

I'm definitely pro-bye. With all the injury and health issues out there this year, I want that time to prepare for the next step.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

I'm definitely pro-bye. With all the injury and health issues out there this year, I want that time to prepare for the next step.

And have 1 fewer game to accrue additional injuries. That aspect is often overshadowed by "1 extra game to heal up"