Thoughts on the 2021 Draft League-Wide

[Dantés]

Teams Whose Drafts I Loved:

• Broncos: I think Surtain is one of the safer players in the draft, Javonte Williams is an excellent running back, Meinerz should start for them in year one, and Baron Browning is a freaky, versatile defender.
• Chargers: Rest assured, they will find a way to make sure these players all get hurt or fail to develop, but Slater, Samuel, Palmer, and Jaimes were all quality selections.
• Dolphins: Waddle was my favorite receiver in this class, Phillips is probably the best pass rusher, Jevon Holland was one of my favorite players regardless of position, Eichenberg will be a quality starter somewhere on the line, and Hunter Long is a solid pick as well.
• Saints: I bet Saints fans hated the Turner pick, but I think he could end up being the best defender in this class in three years. The next three picks in a row, Werner, Adebo, and Book, were all guys I liked.
• Eagles: I was not high on Devonta Smith because he will have to be an outlier to succeed in the NFL, but obviously beyond that, there's a lot to like with him. It's the next four picks that sell me: Landon ****erson, Milton Williams, Zech McPhearson, and Kenny Gainwell.
• Football Players: Virtually every guy they drafted outside of the long snapper and their last pick were guys I liked.

Teams Whose Drafts I Loathed:

• Cardinals: I'm really just focused on day 1/2 picks here. The Cardinals took yet another hybrid type defender, which they keep doing without really being successful. Then they added a receiver who, in a perfect world, would have a really creative role in a creative offense... which the Cards do not possess.
• Chiefs: Obviously they didn't have a 1st rounder because of Orlando Brown (a dumb move), but then they spent their highest remaining pick on a two down linebacker. Humphrey was a good pick, but I didn't really like the remainder their their draft.
• Rams: No 1st round pick, and your first crack at the board, you draft a 150 lb receiver.
• Seahawks: The Hawks brass are quietly kind of bad at this.

 

[Dantés]

I mentioned this before the draft, when the 49ers traded up to #3, but now that it's reality it bears repeating.

If there was a QB in this class with comparable tools/traits to Jordan Love, it was Trey Lance.

-Both come from a lower level of college football (Utah State technically a level up, but Lance's Bison would have beaten them every time).

-Both were given a lot of control over their offenses in college.

-They both came in at 6'4" 224 lbs.

-They both have athleticism to create second reaction plays, or pick up yards on the ground.

-They both have huge arms, and lots of arm talent in general.

-They were both better in their second to last year in school (Lance obviously only got the one game, but looked worse than he had in his amazing 2019 season).

So it's interesting to me that the QB that Shanahan ultimately picks for his offense is so similar to the guy that Gutekunst picked up for LaFleur's a year ago.

 

[Dantés]

In the division...

Chicago: Pace/Nagy are taking a huge swing to save their jobs. If they don't find success with Fields immediately, they're probably done. This is why it makes sense that they mortgaged the future to get Fields, and then a little more to get Jenkins. I really like fields, and so do a lot of really smart people I read. However, the NFL did not like him as much as the media. If you're going to flail to save your butt, I think this was a good way to do it. I hope it doesn't work.

Vikings: I don't like this draft much for the Vikings. Darrisaw is a nice addition, if the concerns about his effort and attitude don't materialize. But I think taking day 2 QB's is basically burning a pick. Chazz Surratt may be talented, but he's raw due to being new to the linebacker position while also currently being 24 years old. That gets a big no from me.

Detroit: In terms of players picked, I think the Lions had one of the best drafts in the league. Sewell should be a great tackle for them. I think both DT's can play-- Onwuzurike and McNeill. And Melifonwu, St. Brown, and Barnes were nice picks for where they were taken. So that's all good. But my bigger issue with their approach is this: are they going to build a roster around Goff that's good enough to win 5-7 games? Because that would be a total disaster. This next QB class is supposed to be weak to begin with. And if you end up picking at #11, you're either going to miss on a top QB, or have to trade a massive haul to go get a guy. I could easily see them looking back in a year and wondering why the heck they passed on Justin Fields.

 

[Dantés]

This isn't related to this draft only, but I was just looking back over some PFF big boards for the 2018 class, 2019, etc, and I realized something.

PFF being way higher on a prospect than the general consensus is basically the kiss of death. Virtually every time they put their stamp on a guy and really push him up above where most regard the player, that player flops. The consistency is almost impressive.

 

[tynimiller]

This isn't related to this draft only, but I was just looking back over some PFF big boards for the 2018 class, 2019, etc, and I realized something.

PFF being way higher on a prospect than the general consensus is basically the kiss of death. Virtually every time they put their stamp on a guy and really push him up above where most regard the player, that player flops. The consistency is almost impressive.

PFF boards are just a mess, notice when I see mocks or run one over there myself....just bad

 

[tynimiller]

TDN seems very good at the skill positions and corners predicting for most part and ILBs.

 

[PackFan2]

- Falcons
- Browns
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
- Patriots
- Jets
- Titans



- Bears
- Houston
- Raiders

 

[Dantés]

PFF boards are just a mess, notice when I see mocks or run one over there myself....just bad

I think they entered the draft space hoping that their grading system would prove effective at projecting success from the college to the pro game. But it wasn't. Or, I should say, it wasn't more effective than what already existed.

And this should only make sense. PFF has risen to prominence essentially by answering the question of "what happened?" on a football field. But the draft isn't about "what happened," it's about "what will happen?" And the answer to that question is multi-factorial-- it deals with traits, talent, health, character, landing spot, etc, in addition to college production (which is essentially the only part that PFF uniquely measures).

So they went from their early draft boards featuring a lot of outlier picks that virtually all bombed (e.g. in 2018, they ranked Maurice Hurst #3, Josh Jackson #8, Connor Williams #18, James Washington #24, Mason Rudolph #25...), to now being much closer to consensus, and using their own grades less and less to project college players. For instance, I saw that they graded Eric Stokes as the best corner in football in man coverage over the course of his career. And yet they ranked him #72 on their board, and deemed his selection a big reach-- presumably because Renner didn't personally like his tape?

So now Renner and their other draft people with PFF are basically like Dane Brugler, Ben Solak, or any other draft analyst in the media.

 

[tynimiller]

I think they entered the draft space hoping that their grading system would prove effective at projecting success from the college to the pro game. But it wasn't. Or, I should say, it wasn't more effective than what already existed.

And this should only make sense. PFF has risen to prominence essentially by answering the question of "what happened?" on a football field. But the draft isn't about "what happened," it's about "what will happen?" And the answer to that question is multi-factorial-- it deals with traits, talent, health, character, landing spot, etc, in addition to college production (which is essentially the only part that PFF uniquely measures).

So they went from their early draft boards featuring a lot of outlier picks that virtually all bombed (e.g. in 2018, they ranked Maurice Hurst #3, Josh Jackson #8, Connor Williams #18, James Washington #24, Mason Rudolph #25...), to now being much closer to consensus, and using their own grades less and less to project college players. For instance, I saw that they graded Eric Stokes as the best corner in football in man coverage over the course of his career. And yet they ranked him #72 on their board, and deemed his selection a big reach-- presumably because Renner didn't personally like his tape?

So now Renner and their other draft people with PFF are basically like Dane Brugler, Ben Solak, or any other draft analyst in the media.

yup yup and yup!!

you learn who seems to be better at certain positions and listen to them on those aspects but not others.

 

[AmishMafia]

- Falcons
- Browns
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
- Patriots
- Jets
- Titans



- Bears
- Houston
- Raiders
- Lions

I thought the lions did very well. Im thinking they got 4 starters at least. I thought the Bears did well also.

What did you see that you don't like?

 

[PackFan2]

I thought the lions did very well. Im thinking they got 4 starters at least. I thought the Bears did well also.

What did you see that you don't like?

^Edited. Idk why I put Lions on there. LOL. I probably meant Bears and put lions on lol.
But I think Lions did well. The first three are IMO going to be solid starters (Sewell, Onwuzurike, & McNeill). Melifonwu is going to be a boom or bust guy, tall lanky, tested athletically.. (Kevin King-ish). If Lions find plays for Amon-Ra St. Brown he's going to be good weapon for them (but its the Lions.. ). I actually like Jermar Jefferson. I really like this catching ability and did some route running. Though he's listed as 215, he looks like he's 185-195lb (compared to Kylin Hill), thin build. Average runner.