The Value of Run Defense

[Heyjoe4]

Its so silly that people always asume that Packers FO gave up on winning a SB in the next 2,3 years just because they didnt draft a WR. Its pretty obvious that the Packers started changing philosophy with Gutey LaFleur becoming the HC.
Also, as Dantes already stated, fans and media were crying for a change after the 49ers games. But suddenly this is wrong too. I am sure that the FO cant win, no matter what they do.



You draft for the future. Thats the point behind the draft. If you draft for a need you have this season, you are doing something wrong. Gutekunst still is a Thompson guy and you can see it. But he also is more aggressive in FA and the draft and that is a good thing. As written above, they sure as hell dont see the window closed. They went all in with the personnel needed for the new scheme. The new scheme already worked wonders last season. There are more ways to improve the team for a potential playoff run than just draft a WR high and hope he magically delivers from the beginning

Point well made, and man, are memories short. It was only two seasons ago we were complaining about MM’s unwillingness to run and his “play not to lose” philosophy. Most of us were ecstatic when that was changed, and I think it’s fair to say all of us were impressed with MLF’s first season. So let Gluten and MLF do what they were hired to do. I’m happy with MLF at the reigns then MM.

 

[Taryn Miller]

Football seasons pass by so quickly, they can be viewed as 'Flavors of the week' with a week being anywhere from 5-10 years, whether it's the run game, the passing game with WR's or TE's that can be WR's or RB's that be WR's with a dose of QB's who can be used as RB's, WR's, Returners and counted on to throw a pass here and there.

We've seen many an offensive scheme come into play over the last 40+ years and all have had success

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Now, will that trend change back at some point? Maybe teams will start see an opportunity to exploit the weaknesses of great teams and start building run first offenses again? Maybe that's what we're trying to do?

Always about trying to stay one step ahead.

Data supports that wouldn't be smart as over the last two season on first and second down 61 of 64 defenses were able to produce negative expected points added defending the run while only 10 were able to accomplish that feat against the pass.

 

[Dantés]

I'm not discussing "roles", I was specifically saying "sizable impacts". A goal line, short yardage RB is not a sizable impact. And, whatever position you feel like saying he plays, the chances of a late third-round TE/FB being a big contributor are pretty much nil.

I explained the amount of snaps that might be available to these guys based on comparable situations/players/offenses. You can do with that what you will.

 

[OldSchool101]

It's strange that so many fans all but guarantee that Dillon was move past Jamaal Williams on the depth chart just like that. It's true that Williams hasn't had a huge impact at the pro level but actually had better college stats than Dillon.

Jamaal had the luxury of staying and playing his Sr. season. Had Dillon did that he would’ve absolutely demolished Jamaals’ stats. Dillon was on pace for over 6,000+ yards and 50+ TD’s. Even ignoring Dillon opted fir the NFL after his Junior season, he still has more production in 3 seasons than Jamaal did in 4 seasons and we must consider Jamaal had a tremendous Senior season.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jamaal-williams-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aj-dillon-1.html

I mean no disrespect to Jamaal and I appreciate what Jamaal has offered for us as a solid #2. Dillon will outperform Jamaal tripping through the front door.
Also, I predict that there will be a part of Dillon‘s game that eventually gets overlooked on the stat boards (1st down runs). We normally focus on a RB yards per carry (for good reason) but if they are repackaged as more 1st downs and TD’s I’ll gladly trade .5 yards per carry for lots more of those.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Jamaal had the luxury of staying and playing his Sr. season. Had Dillon did that he would’ve absolutely demolished Jamaals’ stats. Dillon was on pace for over 6,000+ yards and 50+ TD’s. Even ignoring Dillon opted fir the NFL after his Junior season, he still has more production in 3 seasons than Jamaal did in 4 seasons and we must consider Jamaal had a tremendous Senior season.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jamaal-williams-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aj-dillon-1.html

I mean no disrespect to Jamaal and I appreciate what Jamaal has offered for us as a solid #2. Dillon will outperform Jamaal tripping through the front door.
Also, I predict that there will be a part of Dillon‘s game that eventually gets overlooked on the stat boards (1st down runs). We normally focus on a RB yards per carry (for good reason) but if they are repackaged as more 1st downs and TD’s I’ll gladly trade .5 yards per carry for lots more of those.

Well said, and thanks for the perspective. I expect Dillon will quickly ascend to the #2 spot. And given where he was taken in the 2nd round, Gluten and MLF likely feel the same. I don’t think you draft a RB in the 2nd round only to make him #3 on the depth chart. Yeah, he’s gotta earn it, and I think he will.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well said, and thanks for the perspective. I expect Dillon will quickly ascend to the #2 spot. And given where he was taken in the 2nd round, Gluten and MLF likely feel the same. I don’t think you draft a RB in the 2nd round only to make him #3 on the depth chart. Yeah, he’s gotta earn it, and I think he will.

As long as Dillon stays healthy he’s not going to be competing for #2RB. He’s used to being “the guy”.
If Dillon makes the best of his early opportunities they feed him and his powerful running style translate adequately, its my belief GB should run some packages with AJ in the Slot receiver position and Dillon lined up in single back formation. Getting the best “talent” on the field simultaneously in 11 personnel should be Nathaniel’s trademark package. He had the luxury of Fournette there in Jacksonville but the Passing game suffered at the expense of a stellar Running attack. If you get Dillon primed and get Sternberger and Aaron Jones lined up near the the Tackles And Davante and Funchess outside? That’s a look I wouldn’t want to see as a DC.

Getting back to the thread topic and Speaking of Run Stop, I’ve kinda overlooked Ty Summers development. He needed to mature a bit at the next level with some work on cleaning up fundamentals but he’s got a season under his belt already and he has played in nearly all but 2 contests in his 4 year college career.
I wouldn’t be opposed to giving him some opportunities inside paired with Kirksey. Summers (4.51 and 10’3” broad) has much better burst and speed than Martinez (4.71 and 9’5” broad) and he’s better shooting the gaps by default. He’s 6.12’ nearly the same size as Blake 6.16’ and similar 240lb. He also played as a D team Captain at TCU and was a QB in HS so he’s smart.

 

[Heyjoe4]

As long as Dillon stays healthy he’s not going to be competing for #2RB. He’s used to being “the guy”.
If Dillon makes the best of his early opportunities they feed him and his powerful running style translate adequately, its my belief GB should run some packages with AJ in the Slot receiver position and Dillon lined up in single back formation. Getting the best “talent” on the field simultaneously in 11 personnel should be Nathaniel’s trademark package. He had the luxury of Fournette there in Jacksonville but the Passing game suffered at the expense of a stellar Running attack. If you get Dillon primed and get Sternberger and Aaron Jones lined up near the the Tackle And Davante and Funchess outside? That’s a look I wouldn’t want to see as a DC.

Getting back to the thread topic and Speaking of Run Stop, I’ve kinda overlooked Ty Summers development. He needed to mature a bit at the next level with some work on cleaning up fundamentals but he’s got a season under his belt already and he played all but 2 games in his 4 year college career.
I wouldn’t be opposed to giving him some opportunities inside paired with Kirksey. Summers (4.51 and 10’3” broad) has much better burst and speed than Martinez (4.71 and 9’5” broad) and he’s better shooting the gaps by default. He’s nearly the same size as Blake 6.12’ verses 6.16’ and similar 240lb. He also played as a D team Captain at TCU and was a QB in HS so he’s smart.

Well I agree with both of your scenarios. Maybe this is just a technicality, but Dillon will have to surpass Williams to be the #2 RB, something I expect to happen quickly.

You can start to see the logic in Gluten’s drafting, whether or not you think Dillon was a reach in round 2. Personally I’ve gone back and forth on that - but just given his results at the Combine - 4.5 40, 40” vertical jump - and all at 250 lbs - he’s a guy who has to be on the field. (As for the draft, I’m now convinced he would have been gone by the time GB drafted again. And he’s insurance on Jones walking next year. Oh, and on a rookie contract.)

Kirksey was a good FA addition. Pairing him with a more mature Summers could finally give GB an ILB group that will work. Burks, I’m afraid, is done.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well I agree with both of your scenarios. Maybe this is just a technicality, but Dillon will have to surpass Williams to be the #2 RB, something I expect to happen quickly.

You can start to see the logic in Gluten’s drafting, whether or not you think Dillon was a reach in round 2. Personally I’ve gone back and forth on that - but just given his results at the Combine - 4.5 40, 40” vertical jump - and all at 250 lbs - he’s a guy who has to be on the field. (As for the draft, I’m now convinced he would have been gone by the time GB drafted again. And he’s insurance on Jones walking next year. Oh, and on a rookie contract.)

Kirksey was a good FA addition. Pairing him with a more mature Summers could finally give GB an ILB group that will work. Burks, I’m afraid, is done.

Yeah, I don’t know what’s going on with the Burks project. We know injuries have set him back some but It’s almost like we are trying to push a square into a triangular hole. He’s been solid at ST and you still need those players so he may just be someone who can’t get over that threshold.
The more I read up on Kamal, the more I see a
2 down LB who’s definitely at a competent level stopping the Run, but he’s also not going to give us a legit chance at an upgrade in coverage as a solid 3-down option, so he’s a bit of liability in pass coverage.

I see Summers being a little more well rounded at pass and run D, but not necessarily NFL level refined at either and that only comes with live game experience. If Ty can make that leap, his upside is a good 3 down ILB who can be a better option in space than Martinez and maybe even a smidge better than Goodson (in coverage or space) But Summers doesn’t have the strong thumper feel of Goodson (30 reps) in the box.
My layman level knowledge feels like Summers will never be a “feature” LB, but he can definitely develop into a #2 ILB contributor next to a seasoned veteran (enters Kirksey). Somewhere in the feel of a solid X-Packer UDFA, Joe Thomas (2015 version).

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah, I don’t know what’s going on with the Burks project. We know injuries have set him back some but It’s almost like we are trying to push a square into a triangular hole. He’s been solid at ST and you still need those players so he may just be someone who can’t get over that threshold.
The more I read up on Kamal, the more I see a
2 down LB who’s definitely at a competent level stopping the Run, but he’s also not going to give us a legit chance at an upgrade in coverage as a solid 3-down option, so he’s a bit of liability in pass coverage.

I see Summers being a little more well rounded at pass and run D, but not necessarily NFL level refined at either and that only comes with live game experience. If Ty can make that leap, his upside is a good 3 down ILB who can be a better option in space than Martinez and maybe even a smidge better than Goodson (in coverage or space) But Summers doesn’t have the strong thumper feel of Goodson (30 reps) in the box.
My layman level knowledge feels like Summers will never be a “feature” LB, but he can definitely develop into a #2 ILB contributor next to a seasoned veteran (enters Kirksey). Somewhere in the feel of a solid X-Packer UDFA, Joe Thomas (2015 version).

I don’t know why the standard is to give a guy three years to prove himself. I’ll buy that when a player shows improvement. In Burks case, I think injury is just an excuse for the fact they he’s “just a guy”. Give Summers a chance, bring on a cap casualty or two, and say goodbye to the Burks project. Same with Montravius Adams IMO.

I hate saying this because I though Burks was solid when selected. His injuries look chronic however, and that’s a roster spot that can go to a healthier player. 53 sounds like a lot. It isn’t.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don’t know why the standard is to give a guy three years to prove himself. I’ll buy that when a player shows improvement. In Burks case, I think injury is just an excuse for the fact they he’s “just a guy”. Give Summers a chance, bring on a cap casualty or two, and say goodbye to the Burks project. Same with Montravius Adams IMO.

I hate saying this because I though Burks was solid when selected. His injuries look chronic however, and that’s a roster spot that can go to a healthier player. 53 sounds like a lot. It isn’t.

I’m certainly not privy to discussions and film stuff behind closed doors at 1265 Lombardi and sometimes certain players have hang ups for whatever reasons.
However, I do know a couple things I believe to be accurate.
1. He’s had a record of being at or near the top of ST players when given that role in the meantime. I say that because there is a definitive need for specialty ST players, so it’s not like that doesn’t factor in. There’s several players every season that make the team based on their level of ST ability.
2. Into just this last preseason 2019 he was being touted as making good strides at the hybrid LB position from the coaching perspective. I saw positive reports that were encouraging. Of course positive jargon and on field results are two different things. I also saw similar reports about Montravius coming on strong in camp last year and that hadn’t translated either.
This season is make it or break it for both Burks and Montravius and as you said, they are walking a Roster spot tight rope as it is.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I’m certainly not privy to discussions and film stuff behind closed doors at 1265 Lombardi and sometimes certain players have hang ups for whatever reasons.
However, I do know a couple things I believe to be accurate.
1. He’s had a record of being at or near the top of ST players when given that role in the meantime. I say that because there is a definitive need for specialty ST players, so it’s not like that doesn’t factor in. There’s several players every season that make the team based on their level of ST ability.
2. Into just this last preseason 2019 he was being touted as making good strides at the hybrid LB position from the coaching perspective. I saw positive reports that were encouraging. Of course positive jargon and on field results are two different things. I also saw similar reports about Montravius coming on strong in camp last year and that hadn’t translated either.
This season is make it or break it for both Burks and Montravius and as you said, they are walking a Roster spot tight rope as it is.

Thanks for reminding me about a player’s ST value. Some guys don’t produce much at their original position but become beasts on STs. Jeff Janis comes to mind. Well the jury is still out, and given the lack of depth at ILB it’s likely Burks makes the 53. Adams on the other hand, seems to be regressing. Obviously, I’ll leave that up to Gluten and MLF. I just don’t see a spot for him on the 53, unless depth is really that bad on the DL. Let’s see what Gluten can get in the form of minimum or near-minimum contracts from cap casualties. At least those guys have something to play for.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Jamaal had the luxury of staying and playing his Sr. season. Had Dillon did that he would’ve absolutely demolished Jamaals’ stats. Dillon was on pace for over 6,000+ yards and 50+ TD’s. Even ignoring Dillon opted fir the NFL after his Junior season, he still has more production in 3 seasons than Jamaal did in 4 seasons and we must consider Jamaal had a tremendous Senior season.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jamaal-williams-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aj-dillon-1.html

I'm not talking about total numbers when comparing Williams and Dillon but yards per carry. While the difference is marginal Jamaal had a slightly better average than AJ during his college career. In addition he was the better receiver coming into the NFL. Therefore I'm not convinced Dillion will automatically move past Williams on the depth chart.

I don’t think you draft a RB in the 2nd round only to make him #3 on the depth chart.

You don't draft a running back in the second round to be a backup either yet that's exactly what the Packers did.

Getting back to the thread topic and Speaking of Run Stop, I’ve kinda overlooked Ty Summers development. He needed to mature a bit at the next level with some work on cleaning up fundamentals but he’s got a season under his belt already and he has played in nearly all but 2 contests in his 4 year college career.

Summers didn't play a single snap on defense last season which tells me he isn't ready to make an impact at inside linebacker anytime soon.

Kirksey was a good FA addition. Pairing him with a more mature Summers could finally give GB an ILB group that will work. Burks, I’m afraid, is done.

Kirksey might present an upgrade over Martinez but the Packers obviously don't feel comfortable about playing either Burks or Summers on defense.

Into just this last preseason 2019 he was being touted as making good strides at the hybrid LB position from the coaching perspective. I saw positive reports that were encouraging. Of course positive jargon and on field results are two different things.

This season is make it or break it for both Burks and Montravius and as you said, they are walking a Roster spot tight rope as it is.

Burks only playing 57 snaps on defense with the team in dire need of another inside linebacker clearly points in the direction that they didn't trust him to have a positive impact.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm not talking about total numbers when comparing Williams and Dillon but yards per carry. While the difference is marginal Jamaal had a slightly better average than AJ during his college career. In addition he was the better receiver coming into the NFL. Therefore I'm not convinced Dillion will automatically move past Williams on the depth chart.



You don't draft a running back in the second round to be a backup either yet that's exactly what the Packers did.



Summers didn't play a single snap on defense last season which tells me he isn't ready to make an impact at inside linebacker anytime soon.



Kirksey might present an upgrade over Martinez but the Packers obviously don't feel comfortable about playing either Burks or Summers on defense.



Burks only playing 57 snaps on defense with the team in dire need of another inside linebacker clearly points in the direction that they didn't trust him to have a positive impact.

As far as your comment about not drafting a RB in the 2nd round to make him a #2, in this case, that’s a ridiculous statement. They drafted him for his athleticism, and to eventually replace Jones. I won’t argue that he was a reach, there were better BPAs, but that’s not what the Packers needed. They’re gonna have to pay Bak, Clark, and Jones next year. IMO, Jones is the odd-man out and Dillon is insurance, IF both he and Jones play well.

 

[OldSchool101]

Burks only playing 57 snaps on defense with the team in dire need of another inside linebacker clearly points in the direction that they didn't trust him to have a positive impact

I know you continually refer to him not being good enough to start simply because Raven Greene started week 1. Once again, Burks was the presumed starter at ILB alongside Blake Martinez and when Raven went down we were already on “Take 3” at that ILB position when this deal was made...
https://www.sny.tv/giants/news/giants-trade-lb-bj-goodson-to-packers-sign-lb-david-mayo/310481934/
so you didn’t think I made that story up... this was written shortly after a pretty serious injury (that part I only know from memory that they teetered back n forth about him possibly needing surgery) Here’s to hoping he gets to start a season without being on the injury list, thus far, he can’t seem to catch a break (poor choice of words I know)

“Packers LB Oren Burks suffered a torn pectoral muscle at training camp.
Penciled in as a starter alongside teammate Blake Martinez in the middle of the field, Burks' absence will surely be felt despite Green Bay's concerted effort to improve that position in the offseason. No. 226 overall pick Ty Summers will likely get the first nod over Curtis Bolton and Brady Shelton to fill the 2018 third-rounder's shoes. It's ultimately a huge setback as the Packers still lack depth on the second level of their defense, in particular up the middle.”

SOURCE: Rob Demovsky on Twitter
Aug 10, 2019, 5:24 PM ET


As far as Ty Summers goes. He’s a late 7th round selection (Might as well be a Priority Undrafted). While I’m not saying he’s also similarly penciled as a starter.. It’s also not unusual at all for us to groom a LB (or any player) who needs additional coaching in a Redshirt Freshman type capacity. You get him all the reps in practice and make him earn his keep on ST in the meantime. By his Sophomore season he’s absolutely expected to produce and better be 100% prepared if we call his number.
So saying he’s “nowhere close to making an impact” isn’t any better than me saying he could.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Its so silly that people always asume that Packers FO gave up on winning a SB in the next 2,3 years just because they didnt draft a WR. Its pretty obvious that the Packers started changing philosophy with Gutey LaFleur becoming the HC.
Also, as Dantes already stated, fans and media were crying for a change after the 49ers games. But suddenly this is wrong too. I am sure that the FO cant win, no matter what they do.



You draft for the future. Thats the point behind the draft. If you draft for a need you have this season, you are doing something wrong. Gutekunst still is a Thompson guy and you can see it. But he also is more aggressive in FA and the draft and that is a good thing. As written above, they sure as hell dont see the window closed. They went all in with the personnel needed for the new scheme. The new scheme already worked wonders last season. There are more ways to improve the team for a potential playoff run than just draft a WR high and hope he magically delivers from the beginning

Well said. I don’t recall where I heard this (so it might be wrong), but the average yardage for WRs taken in the first and second round is about 500 yards. That’s not gonna get GB past the niners, the saints, the ravens, or any other SB-capable team. Yeah I was upset when a WR wasn’t taken, but the more time I’ve had to digest this draft, I think Gluten did what he had to do to keep this team competitive beyond the upcoming year. It would have been different (maybe) if they got a stud WR in FA, but it was too expensive. This is still a good team, but from some of the comments, you’d swear we were headed for the bottom. We’re not. We finally have a backup QB, and we have a RB who can likely supplant Jones in the future.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's strange that so many fans all but guarantee that Dillon was move past Jamaal Williams on the depth chart just like that. It's true that Williams hasn't had a huge impact at the pro level but actually had better college stats than Dillon.

In addition he knows the system and pass protection schemes, which is important for a backup running back to see the field with Rodgers.



Even if we solely consider a tight end, who was the last rookie tight end selected at the end of the third round to have a sizable impact in his rookie campaign???

Jones proved last year he can catch the ball. This year, I wouldn’t be shocked if he lined up wide or is the slot.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Jones proved last year he can catch the ball. This year, I wouldn’t be shocked if he lined up wide or is the slot.

I would hope so. He certainly looked very good doing it last year, the one deep drop notwithstanding. He was chewing up linebackers.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Packers were one win away from playing in the Super Bowl last season. It would be stupid to consider Rodgers' championship window to be closed.



It's true the Packers would benefit from an improved run defense but they shouldn't shift their focus that way based on a single game.



I'm asking once again because I haven't received a reasonable answer so far. What was the point of extending Rodgers with two years left on his contract in 2018 as well as restructuring the deal at the end of last season to add even more dead money down the road if there was no plan of tailoring the offense around his strengths???



I didn't see any fan crying for a change after the loss to the Niners. They were advocating to add more talent to the passing offense as well s the run defense though. Unfortunately that didn't happen.



The draft should serve both to improve the team for the upcoming season as well as years down the road. While Gutekunst might have achieved the latter he ignored immediate needs.



Just for the record, the Packers scored the exact same amount of points last season as in 2018 when McCarthy was run out of town.



Gutekunst selecting only one starter at a position of need in the first three rounds would have resulted in a bigger impact this season than Love, Dillon and Deguara will combine to have.

Points scored in a season don’t count as much as winning. GB won 14 under MLF in 2019 and 6 under MM for (most) of the 2018 season. I think very few people here miss MM.

 

[Mondio]

It may have been time for a change from MM, but don’t make the mistake of thinking he was anything less than a very good coach.

 

[rmontro]

It may have been time for a change from MM, but don’t make the mistake of thinking he was anything less than a very good coach.

Agree, and I haven't drawn any conclusions on MLF either. We've only had one season with him. Yes, the record was good (as long as we weren't playing on the west coast). But remember Capers had a long history of fielding great defenses followed by years of mediocrity (or worse). Let's see what LeFleur can do over several seasons.
.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It may have been time for a change from MM, but don’t make the mistake of thinking he was anything less than a very good coach.

No doubt, when you consider his career and accomplishments. But in the years before he was fired, he grew stale, and seemed to know only one way of coaching that was far too reliant on the pass. Even with #12 under center, ya gotta have a run game.

 

[rmontro]

No doubt, when you consider his career and accomplishments. But in the years before he was fired, he grew stale, and seemed to know only one way of coaching that was far too reliant on the pass. Even with #12 under center, ya gotta have a run game.

That's true, but to be fair, Rodgers was injured his last few years, so that hurt the team's effectiveness quite a bit. It should be interesting to see how committed he is to the run with Ezekiel Elliott.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's true, but to be fair, Rodgers was injured his last few years, so that hurt the team's effectiveness quite a bit. It should be interesting to see how committed he is to the run with Ezekiel Elliott.

It will be interesting to see how he coaches the Cowboys, especially with Elliott. I don’t know how many snaps he got under Garrett, but after paying him $15 mil per year, Good Ol’ Jerry is probably expecting him to get his carries.

MM has actually fallen into a good situation. Like em or not, the Cowboys have a lot of talent. I wish MM success, just not more success than MLF!

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

Anecdotal, but I have felt the Cowboys have underachieved for most of Garrett’s career. They have been loaded for a while.