H
HardRightEdge
Guest
Once you switch off the dream machine and turn a cold eye to the realities on the ground, yes, it does get very hard.
Actually, this contest as constructed differs quite a bit from sitting in a scout's or the the GM's seat.
First, we're trying to predict who will still be on the board at each pick, which gets progressively harder as you move through the rounds. The GM's perspective is entirely different as he works with the immediate knowns with each pick.
Given the increasing uncertainties for us in terms of who will be on the board as we move down through the picks, it makes sense to me to allocate more picks to the upper rounds to try to snag 3 points on the name and maybe 1 or 2 points for getting the round right.
Throwing in a long shot (like I did with Adjai in the 3rd.) has some merit I believe. While it's unlikely he'll last that long, without getting into the reasons, there's a chance he will and there are several reasons to believe Thompson will take a RB somewhere in the top 5 rounds. It's kind of like seeing a horse going off at 20-1 that you think deserves an 8-1 proposition, and putting that horse in a trifecta wheel bet. That's a far cry from playing GM.
I've got a couple of other reverse-reach picks...guys who are probably not going to be on the board, who have some chance of falling, who would have hard-to-resist value at that point in the draft at a position of need.
Another fact to consider is the Packers three 6th. round picks. With so many players that could go anywhere on day 3, it behooves you to go light on 5th. and 7th. round picks and add some extra names in the 6th. It's possible pick trades will change that equation, but nobody could predict that.
That said, I have low expectations for my final results. But I see it like one of those stock picking contests...you have no chance of winning without hitting on a long shot or two even if you'd never be inclined to do that with real money.
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