Rookie Edge Rushers and Projections

[PackinMSP]

I see people ALWAYS predicting who will be the next GREAT Edge Rusher to take early (or Top 15 at least) in the NFL Draft.

That said, there are SOOOO many busts... I"m never comfortable taking a guy that high.

You will get guys like Bosa...sure

But there are sooo many busts or "one year wonder" guys who get drafted that high and have say... 1 or 2(maybe) "good (10+ sack) seasons" and then they pretty much dissappear.

Both CM3 and TJ Watt were LATE 1st round picks btw

Aside from Bosa, who else do you feel comfortable with at #12? And what are the REALISTIC expectations?? Bosa won't drop to 12 btw...

 

[AmishMafia]

I see people ALWAYS predicting who will be the next GREAT Edge Rusher to take early (or Top 15 at least) in the NFL Draft.

That said, there are SOOOO many busts... I"m never comfortable taking a guy that high.

You will get guys like Bosa...sure

But there are sooo many busts or "one year wonder" guys who get drafted that high and have say... 1 or 2(maybe) "good (10+ sack) seasons" and then they pretty much dissappear.

Both CM3 and TJ Watt were LATE 1st round picks btw

Aside from Bosa, who else do you feel comfortable with at #12? And what are the REALISTIC expectations?? Bosa won't drop to 12 btw...

Josh Allen, Sweat and Ferrell.

Fans may be shocked at how Gute handles the OLBs this year. Getting a pass rusher isnt as great of a priority for the Pack as fans perceive. OLBs in the Pettine system are critically required to be able to set the edge.

The 3 OLBs I listed are able to do this very well and I suspect are strong possibilities for #12.

I thought Burns was poor at it, but now that he has put on some weight, he may be an option. He did okay in college at it, but I still have some questions if he can do it at the pro level.

Other than the 3 in the first (Burns at 30), I see Gute going with some late round picks. Guys who didnt get many sacks in college, but can set an edge.

 

[sjb12681]

Honestly? I hope there is a STUD offensive player there at 12... So we trade down for OAK 24+27 or a mid 1st rd with another team, and can amass some defense this year.

This is predicated on making a few really good FA moves beforehand.

If we have a high value need at 12, like our #1 "on the board" player, take him. Otherwise, I'm ok with trading down for value in this draft, bc I know it's not TT trying to steal the whole 6th Rd with tradedowns.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Honestly? I hope there is a STUD offensive player there at 12... So we trade down for OAK 24+27 or a mid 1st rd with another team, and can amass some defense this year.

I wouldn't feel comfortable about the Packers trading back that many spots.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I have a scenario where we trade with Cleveland back to 17th for an extra 2nd Rounder

Then we trade back from 30th with KC for their two 2nd Rounders, a 5th, and a 6th.

We take the best LB period regardless of edge or inside at 17th. For the record I think Devin White can play edge, especially after running 4.42.

But we go into the 2nd Round with 4 picks, so that's 5 picks in the first two rounds. 3 of which should be instant starters, if not all 5. We instantly have a young core on with which Rodgers can work with through retirement for another ring. And when he do retired, those 5 players should all be in their prime, so the heir doesn't have to carry the team their first year starting.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I have a scenario where we trade with Cleveland back to 17th for an extra 2nd Rounder

There's no way the Browns give up a second rounder to move up five spots.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

It computes in Jimmy Johnson's Draft Pick Value Chart, so I don't see why not. I can't say I am an expert on Cleveland's Draft Board, but given the familiarity with Green Bay I'm certain some conversations have been had going into Draft Day. I expect 3-5 trades in the Top 15.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It computes in Jimmy Johnson's Draft Pick Value Chart, so I don't see why not.

The Packers 12th pick is worth 1,200 points according to the chart. The Browns first and second round selection combined to have a value of 1,360. That doesn't make it likely they would agree to a trade like that.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

A difference of 160 points makes the scenario plausible. If it's a player they really want, I can see them doing so. On our end we win on the trade value wise.

You're saying the trade needs to be what, less than 100? We can agree to disagree on that. My opinion is anything 200 points and over.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

A difference of 160 points makes the scenario plausible. If it's a player they really want, I can see them doing so. On our end we win on the trade value wise.

You're saying the trade needs to be what, less than 100? We can agree to disagree on that. My opinion is anything 200 points and over.

160 points equals a mid third round pick. Teams don't give away picks like that for nothing.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I'm not understanding your logic. 160 pts would be the 22nd pick in the 3rd Round. Both teams need to "win" the trade, or at least feel they did. Offering equal value might seem "fair", but losing out on the potential caliber of a player that might not be available in 5 picks warrants some "compensation" hence the 2nd Rounder.

Granted neither of us are NFL GMs, but I don't expect any of them to just accept a trade because it's "fair".

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm not understanding your logic. 160 pts would be the 22nd pick in the 3rd Round. Both teams need to "win" the trade, or at least feel they did. Offering equal value might seem "fair", but losing out on the potential caliber of a player that might not be available in 5 picks warrants some "compensation" hence the 2nd Rounder.

Once again, it's completely unrealistic to expect another team to overpay to move up five spots to the 12th spot.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

And yet the Redskins traded a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in 2012 for RG3 in 2012....

 

[AKCheese]

OK so we throw in a 5th rounder

 

[Mondio]

And yet the Redskins traded a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in 2012 for RG3 in 2012....

to draft him #2. I don't think the #12 spot is that coveted.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And yet the Redskins traded a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in 2012 for RG3 in 2012....

It might be smart to take a look at the Cardinals trading up five spots from #15 in last year's draft to get an idea about the possible compensation to move back from 12th to 17th.

They gave up an additional third and fifth round pick to move up to #10, which is still a more coveted slot than the Packers currently have this year. Actually the trade value chart favors Arizona a bit in that case (Cardinals received a value of 1,300 points with the Raiders at 1,276).

Once again, it's unrealistic to expect the Browns to give up a seconder rounder in a trade for #12.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

It's all relative, the Redskins overpaid for the #2 spot. But they thought they had a franchise QB. If the Browns feel the same way about a player who may not make it past 12th, 13th, etc. They could feel the need to "overpay". Keep in mind that the Browns have been like New England stockpiling picks, although not so much this year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's all relative, the Redskins overpaid for the #2 spot. But they thought they had a franchise QB. If the Browns feel the same way about a player who may not make it past 12th, 13th, etc. They could feel the need to "overpay". Keep in mind that the Browns have been like New England stockpiling picks, although not so much this year.

The Browns drafted their franchise quarterback in Mayfield last year. They won't overpay to move up to draft a player at another position.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’d rather have #15 and a 78 for our #12.


Then I’d trade our #112 and acquired #78 to move back into the 60+ range round 2

#15
#30
#44
#63
#76
#108
#140
Etc..

Just having fun this will never happen

 

[Mondio]

It's all relative, the Redskins overpaid for the #2 spot. But they thought they had a franchise QB. If the Browns feel the same way about a player who may not make it past 12th, 13th, etc. They could feel the need to "overpay". Keep in mind that the Browns have been like New England stockpiling picks, although not so much this year.

It is all relative, had it been a tackle or a Safety or a linebacker, I highly doubt the Redskins would have given up so much to get to the #2 spot. But since it was for the most important position on a football field they felt it was worth it. I doubt there will be a QB available at #12 that teams have labeled a franchise or game changer that they just must have. and no other position in football will make a team give up so much because relatively speaking, they just aren't that important.